Comments on: Regression model for the coming election http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/05/16/regression-model-for-the-coming-election/ Politics, elections and piffle plinking Sat, 24 Oct 2009 07:41:53 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: Ash http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/05/16/regression-model-for-the-coming-election/#comment-558 Ash Tue, 14 Aug 2007 02:21:08 +0000 http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/05/16/regression-model-for-the-coming-election/#comment-558 "Tory" is a description or label I *&^%ing hate. I am a rusted on Coalition voter and there is nothing Tory about me. I have worked battler jobs, I have put myself through two degrees. I send my kids to public schools. I could say a lot more. Tory is a word that belongs in the class warfare of Britain prior to the 1950s and not in Australia in the 21st century. “Tory” is a description or label I *&^%ing hate. I am a rusted on Coalition voter and there is nothing Tory about me. I have worked battler jobs, I have put myself through two degrees. I send my kids to public schools. I could say a lot more. Tory is a word that belongs in the class warfare of Britain prior to the 1950s and not in Australia in the 21st century.

]]> By: Possum Comitatus http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/05/16/regression-model-for-the-coming-election/#comment-557 Possum Comitatus Tue, 14 Aug 2007 01:42:10 +0000 http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/05/16/regression-model-for-the-coming-election/#comment-557 Hi Albert, I agree.Historically at least, interest rate levels have walked hand in hand with the Coalitions primary vote with a high degree of statistical significance, although only contributing a small amount of explanatory power in the Coalitions primary vote (between 5-10% depending how you measure it).Historically, bad economic news is good political news for the Coalition particularly.Whether this time that effect will be overpowered by the "Keeping interest rates low" fallout is something that time will tell. Hi Albert,
I agree.Historically at least, interest rate levels have walked hand in hand with the Coalitions primary vote with a high degree of statistical significance, although only contributing a small amount of explanatory power in the Coalitions primary vote (between 5-10% depending how you measure it).Historically, bad economic news is good political news for the Coalition particularly.Whether this time that effect will be overpowered by the “Keeping interest rates low” fallout is something that time will tell.

]]> By: Albert F http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/05/16/regression-model-for-the-coming-election/#comment-545 Albert F Mon, 13 Aug 2007 03:24:57 +0000 http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/05/16/regression-model-for-the-coming-election/#comment-545 Thanks Possum - great work. I think that govts can use bad economic news to their advantage. I'm not sure its purely a Coalition thing. Keating won the '93 election and had the first million plus unemployment rate in history in (I think) the final week of the campain. It seemed to help him as voters were scared of Hewson's radical reform agenda. Thanks Possum – great work.

I think that govts can use bad economic news to their advantage. I’m not sure its purely a Coalition thing. Keating won the ‘93 election and had the first million plus unemployment rate in history in (I think) the final week of the campain. It seemed to help him as voters were scared of Hewson’s radical reform agenda.

]]> By: possumcomitatus http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/05/16/regression-model-for-the-coming-election/#comment-9 possumcomitatus Thu, 17 May 2007 23:10:31 +0000 http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/05/16/regression-model-for-the-coming-election/#comment-9 That's exactly right netveggie! But its not only Coalition governments, coalition oppositions also suffer from the same allergy to economic sunshine. The evidence seems to fly in the face of alot of political mythology to the contrary. That’s exactly right netveggie! But its not only Coalition governments, coalition oppositions also suffer from the same allergy to economic sunshine.

The evidence seems to fly in the face of alot of political mythology to the contrary.

]]> By: netvegetable http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/05/16/regression-model-for-the-coming-election/#comment-8 netvegetable Thu, 17 May 2007 21:44:41 +0000 http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/05/16/regression-model-for-the-coming-election/#comment-8 Are you saying that a tory government is less likely to win an election when the economy is doing well? Are you saying that a tory government is less likely to win an election when the economy is doing well?

]]> By: possumcomitatus http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/05/16/regression-model-for-the-coming-election/#comment-3 possumcomitatus Thu, 17 May 2007 13:35:22 +0000 http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/05/16/regression-model-for-the-coming-election/#comment-3 I'm sure the governments pollsters like Crosby-Textor do analysis like that all the time, probably a lot more sophisticated to boot.As for the "Oh Fuck" - I think that's happening no matter which type of polling analysis the government looks at ;-) I’m sure the governments pollsters like Crosby-Textor do analysis like that all the time, probably a lot more sophisticated to boot.As for the “Oh Fuck” – I think that’s happening no matter which type of polling analysis the government looks at ;-)

]]> By: Steve http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/05/16/regression-model-for-the-coming-election/#comment-2 Steve Thu, 17 May 2007 13:26:08 +0000 http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/05/16/regression-model-for-the-coming-election/#comment-2 Does the government do these kinds of analysis or do you think they just look at raw poll data and think "Oh F**K"? Does the government do these kinds of analysis or do you think they just look at raw poll data and think “Oh F**K”?

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