Comments on: A Hypothetical

By: john

john — Fri, 16 Nov 2007 03:44:45 +0000

The 2.5 works both ways—considering this the coalition may be down to 44 2PP! Get the razorblades out!

By: Lukas

Lukas — Fri, 16 Nov 2007 02:44:03 +0000

for Jenny @ 84

A 2.5 point margin might be scarily close to MOE of the polls were bouncing around, but when you have a large number of polls consistently showing the ALP at least at 54% 2PP, and you aggregate them together, then the real MOE is much smaller. Remember, Howard has not got close to having Labor down at 51.5 in a single poll this year.
Personally, looking at how things are going in individual seats and states, I think Labor would win with about 51 2PP anyway.

By: Jess

Jess — Fri, 16 Nov 2007 01:25:19 +0000

Look at this – http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22768774-29277,00.html

Its now shoot the messenger time! Talk about deperate.

By: Ian

Ian — Fri, 16 Nov 2007 01:12:24 +0000

re 90.
Preferably after the full troop withdrawal.

By: Bert

Bert — Fri, 16 Nov 2007 00:48:30 +0000

Somebody on OC’s blog on the GG suggested Rudd should offer JWH the ambassodors position in Iraq.

By: Peachy

Peachy — Fri, 16 Nov 2007 00:19:14 +0000

Sorry, i meant ALP PRIMARY is still on 47%. Didn’t mean to give you all a heart attack!

By: Peachy

Peachy — Fri, 16 Nov 2007 00:18:18 +0000

More details on the ACN are in this article:

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/one-week-left-to-save-pms-political-skin/2007/11/15/1194766869599.html

ALP 2PP is still on 47%. Barring a complete disaster i really can’t see Labor losing from here. All the advertising has to stop in a few days, and I’m sure if the Libs have got any bounce at all it is from the ad campaign primarily.

Re the State by State Newspoll, does anybody else think that the swings in SA and Vic look rather like outliers? Can’t think of any valid reason why they would swing by around 5% in opposite directions.

By: jassy

jassy — Fri, 16 Nov 2007 00:01:40 +0000

I hate to be a killjoy but you have to make some assumptions about swings and where they are in what strength to get to a conclusion that 51.5 is needed to win. Then as some have been doing all year long you have to assume the Labor vote is at the bottom of the MoE. Then you have to read more of possum’s post and look at how stable the labor primary has been and wonder if that 2.5% has been steady all year why would it suddenly move.

Now Howard might win there are any number of things that might have gone wrong or might still go wrong. But there must be some comfort to we Labor pessimists in a poll that shows a ttp vote indicative of a landslide not a gentle stumbling win.

On the dark side of the ledger I was invited to cheer wildly for Kevin today, but will be at work

By: Trubbel at Mill

Trubbel at Mill — Thu, 15 Nov 2007 23:53:14 +0000

Kirribilli Removals; By now he’ll be scratching around the house trying to remember where is pr0n stashes are – especially that scrapbook he keeps with all the shots of Janet Albrechtsen, and those shots of Jonesy in his gay Wallaby days…

By: thewetmale

thewetmale — Thu, 15 Nov 2007 23:33:05 +0000

booleanbach @ 80
Everyone knows the widening is what occurs once the narrowing has brought it back to 50-50.