Possums Pollytics
Politics, elections and piffle plinking
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US Election
Intrade ECV
DEMS.. 311
REPS.. 227
Electoral-Vote ECV
Todays Music to blog by:
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Possums Pollytics 
Mullo said
First comment?
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Big D said
Huzzah!
Cat said
You are lucky I do not believe in cross species relations Poss but big wet kiss anyway.
The narrowing happened but not enough to do the suckers any good!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
typingisnotactivism said
Schadenfreude!!!!!
Paul C said
My two favourite nocturnal creatures – possums and bats!!
patrickg said
Care to revise your 91 seat estimate poss? I sure hope it gets to 89, I’ve got ten bucks riding on it.
Big Tofu said
Yah fukking HOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! Lovely way to come home from work!!!!!
Cheers everyone!!!!!
marty said
On Sky…Maxine is about to make a statement. Being mobbed. Glad I’m not pissed, I want to soak up every minute of this. Oh baby…
BlueSkyMining said
Thank the lurdy!!!!
BlueSkyMining said
Roll on the concession speech….
ho_hum said
Bob Hogg looking very happy.
BlueSkyMining said
So what is the current TPP?? Where do we find that?
PASOK said
It’s a great day to be Australian.
Aspirational Aspirationalist said
Just flicked over and looked at the senate.
Gary Humphries has got a quota in ACT. Minchin Seemes happy that the coalition will retain the senate until 2008.
John V K said
Looks like 83 to 85, count me out Poss.
Good result though.
It’s a bloodbath and especially that Coonan thing.
Anyway see ya’s.
That’s a landslide from that far behind.
Queenslander!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Paul C said
Turnbull is talking about the democracy of the serf…
Dylan in Murray said
BlueSkyMining, you can find the current TTP here http://vtr.aec.gov.au/
Michael said
Just cracked a 93 Eileen Hardy shiraz, from a great year, government-wise …
A few misty eyes here. Restores your faith, doesn’t it ? Love the possibility Howard will be remembered in history as only the 2nd PM to lose his seat – remembered for losing as much as anything else ….
Go you good thing !
mick said
WOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sydgal said
Possum you are a legend! Thank you 🙂
Don Wigan said
Yippee!
Latest count shows 81 with 10 to go – so still a chance for your 89 patrickg.
What a night! It always looked likely, after the initial late-poll early-count scares, but it was a state-by-state affair and uneven. No wonder some pollsters were saying ‘mixed messages’. As Poss said some time ago, no need to fret about every marginal, Many expected to fall didn’t. Others bombed, especially in North Queensland. If you get 54, it’s bound to pop up somewhere.
Still a chance for Maxine with a 5.1 lead. Go!
George said
We did it Poss!!!!!!!! Your analysis was invaluable Poss throughout this time, and I don’t mean just the numbers! Insightful, educated, measured – what a treasure – you’re a legend!
P.S. my 87 seat prediction looks good!!!
Cat said
As a resident in the seat of a slug (Ruddock) who helped exploit the worst aspects of Australians can I just say how proud I am of the people of Lindsay! A 9%+ swing tells you that they kicked that racist campaign right into the can. The Bogans were the Libs not the people of St Marys and Penrith.
So will it be 83-85 seats?
Possum Comitatus said
Here’s a thought – Howard pushed hard for making sure that kids had to learn specific facts and figures in the history syllabus, at the expense of of a lot of other things.
I’m sure one of those facts that will forever be taught, thanks to Howard, is the own loss of his seat – the 2nd PM ever to do so, and like the first (Bruce) also losing his over IR laws.
Australian politics is deliciously ironic
B1 said
Ch7 just said Howard to appear in 5-10 mins; have champagne on ice and about to get the glasses out!
Eljenxo said
I’m really looking forward to seeing Alexander Downer’s “cocky little pout”!!
ho_hum said
They’re just waiting for the Valium to kick in …
It's time said
Two bets won, one lost and one going down to the wire (Bennelong). Good result all round.
Now let’s watch the coalition tear themselves apart with recriminations.
chinda63 said
I’m pissed off that Downer has only had a 7.5% swing against him. Having said that, the Labor candidate DID get a 15% swing, so all of the Independent’s vote from 2004 pretty much came to Mary (plus a little bit of Lecky’s).
Not enough to give him brown trousers, though. Worst luck.
trevor millington said
/HOWARD CONCEEDS ITS OVER SANITY RETURNS
Peter said
Massive hugs to all and sundry.
I was nervous about things, but the results started showing up pretty quickly.
Possum, thank you for your analysis throughout the campaign, much appreciated. And I’ll be saving the picture of the Howardista to show to some friends 🙂
Cat said
I’m really looking forward to seeing Alexander Downer’s “cocky little pout”!!
Lovely thought.
Strangely I feel relief more than anything else but I suspect tomorrow will be another thing!
freddy said
Demorats wiped out WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Kyle Aaron said
Sorry Sheriff Johnny, you have been “dismissed for operational reasons.” No avenue of appeal for that.
David Richards said
You blooooodyyy Rippppperrrr!!!!
Australia regains its soul finally!!1
Aspirational Aspirationalist said
It’ll be interesting to see the parliament sitting now that the boot is on the other foot.
“It is with great reluctance, I move that the member for Warringah no longer be heard”.
ho_hum said
Costello has had a soothing potion or nine …..
Cat said
How hard was it for Costello to actually say what we all now know.
Oh and Poss do possums drink champers?
David Richards said
And won’t the new Lib leader look really sick?
Possum Comitatus said
This possum does at the moment Cat
David Richards said
Prod of the last 11 years?
how stupid is thgat?
Turnbull was cannier in seizing the egalitarianism straw
BlueSkyMining said
Actually I can’t believe how relaxed Costello looks. Maybe he is just happy to be free of Howard!
ho_hum said
The Outgoing Prime Miniature is about to offer platitudes …
(At least they are a lot less expensive than his usual offerings.)
Good riddance.
David Richards said
sorry – 750mnl of Carrington Cuvee Brut has caused my typing to go to helkl uin a handbasket
David Richards said
good riddance Rattus Nonveritas!!!
marty said
Dammit. It looks like it’s going to be dignified. Bah.
You haven’t bequeathed anything to us you little turd.
David Richards said
It is now you aren’t leading it!!
PASOK said
Even channel 10 interrupted Star Wars for Johnnie’s concession speech.
The emperor is dead!!
The force is not with you evil Emperor!!
marty said
Gong him, Red!
David Richards said
I wish I could hug you all!!
Australia is a place of which to be proud again!!!!!
Just watch the expats flood back!!!!
Rog said
How ironic. Howard’s last act as PM before conceding was to cut off a speech by Peter Costello!
Possum: thanks for the pst few weeks. You’ve kept me sane.
Cat said
Poss – Tony Jones just reminded me of my plea for Long Time Comin as a theme. How about that for tomorrow if you are not too hung over and can stagger to the computer?
MB said
Can I just repeat what has been a constant message on this page … Possum, I appreciate massively your intelligent, well-thought, humourous and (as it turn out!) correct postings on this site. This has been my go-to place since the lucky day I found your site.
This has been a great day for people, like me, who say, who say, “we live in a society, not an economy” – we needed desperately a government who brings us, as a nation, back to someone who cares about the people of Australia, particularly the downtrodden, the forgotten, and those whose voices have been unheard. That hasn’t happened for the past eleven years. I hope we’ve just brought in a new era that will bring our society into a place of which we can once again be proud.
Please keep blogging Possum! You have a huge fan base who wants to hear for you ad finitum …
gusface said
john howard has left the room 🙂
ho_hum said
H U G E Moment!!
ozbird said
You bloody beauty!
The “polls” last night have me placed in the nervous Nelly camp, but thankfully cooler heads prevailed.
Tongue firmly in cheek (for obvious reasons), the Nightwish song “Bye Bye Beautiful” seems rather apt – though aimed at their former singer Tarja Turunen:
http://profile.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=user.viewprofile&friendid=131336182
The Finnigans said
My contribution: Time To Say Goodbye
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=CBdCO5S0_kI
The Finnigans said
Kevin, I will keep you accountable:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=BKmXSYi49IU
thesilverbodgie said
The light on the hill shines once again.The evil empire gone.
Cat said
So glad he made the Bernie Banton tribute!
The Finnigans said
Australia, you have decided:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=BiO_BFgTYsw
MB said
Can I say how great Therese Rein is! Look at her during Kevin’s speech – I’m going to form a Therese Rein fan club!
denise said
what a wonderful example Therese is i bet she get out in the community and just not just stay home.
ALL THE BEST
AND THANK YOU POSSUMM I REALLY THINK YOU SHOULD APPLY FOR APOSITION WITH KEVIN.
Possum Comitatus said
Cat, “Long Time Comin” by Springsteen?
Possum Comitatus said
Oooh, and thanks again guys 🙂
DonPaullo said
Dead Rodent – Vacate Kiribilli now you scumbag
Costello, all tip no iceberg, still too weak to cut down the corpse.
Kevin has finally ridden us of the unflushable turd.
Bring on the reform of federalism and bring on Turnbull 2010
Keating for President!
Paul Howat said
I’ve only got one word for ya – repudiated!
Peter J. Nicol said
Poss,
I notice you think Howard has lost Bennelong. You don’t buy the postal votes argument?
Lomandra said
I’ve just spent the last half hour in tears.
My head had recognised what was going to happen a few days ago. My heart joined it this morning. But something else was still waiting. Whatever it was, it met up with the other bits tonight, and it was beyond joyous.
Okay, I’m going to start crying again now. Better go….
Kerneels said
Yes! Yes! Yes!
I just can’t stop smiling!
Niz said
No time for looooosers……
We are the champions my friennndddddd!
Cat said
Yes Poss and if you can find the version from Live in Dublin it is a really upbeat.
Good night folks! And I do mean GOOD night.
offline said
As a long time lurker, I’d like to thank you Poss for keeping us informed when the MSM so often failed.
Stephen T said
Im’e Just lovin it. Thank you, thank you, thank you!
gam said
sic semper tyranis
CL de Footscray said
Well, that was a long 11 years. What can you say but
woooooohoooooooo
thanks Poss, see you later!
donners said
Possum, you are a rock.
Thank you so much for this blog. It has kept me sane in moments of doubt.
Well done Labor
I have my country back
Now let’s keep them to their word!
Cheers
Donners
pjw said
OH Joy, HO Bliss !! What a wonderful night !! Not only the cake but the icing too !! OH Joy, HO Bliss !!
Steve K said
Poss, You’ve taught me an invaluable lesson in poll watching – “You’ve got to follow the trend lines.” It’s all so easy when you keep that in mind.
Great work Poss. I hope you maintain the site for another couple of weeks at least as it’ll be a place I want to visit again and again for a good while longer.
karenhenry said
Poss – great analysis all the way through and it looks like this has been the place that everybody has flocked to tonight – little action on most of the other political/pseph sites.
Kirribilli Removals said
Eat dirt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wayne said
Welcome back Australia. It’s nice to see you again. Yeeeeeeeeeeesssssss!
And to borrow from the great Jeff Fenech, “I love youse all”. Enjoy.
PJay said
Possum. I want to thank you for keeping me sane over recent months. Your skills have been on display and are now recorded for all to envy. Possum et fiducia! Congratulations.
Eljenxo said
I was disappointed that Howard’s concession speech didn’t fulfil my expectations. He was supposed to collapse into a pile of dust and be blown away by a rushing wind! Well, I suppose metaphorically that’s what happened so i guess that’ll have to do…..
MayoFeral said
I’m disappointed that Downer got off so lightly too, chinda63. And I’ve only just realised that now he’s the ex FM it means he’ll be here more often…bugger!!! Is it too late to call off the election? ;}
Kirribilli Removals said
The Bruceifixion, oh, the humanity!
bewor said
While’s all abed in the eastern states (or just passed out on the couch) I add a final YAAAAAAHOOOOO and good riddance to the worst PM this nation has ever seen! Nearly made me choke on my celebratory bubbly to hear the rodent speak like he’d actually won, greasy Nick Micham (or however you spell that)talk about him as if he was the greatest thing since sliced bread and finally even the “Diplomat” thank him for his “years of public service”! Dammit, I needed a straight talker like Keating to tell it like it really is and call the a#*hole the a#*hole that he is. My one hope is that history isn’t kind to the lying little rodent, but exposes him for the manipulative, devisive piece of crap that he really is. Still, winners are winners and the rest can please themselves…..at least I go to bed with a smile on my face!
Roscoe of Queens Park said
Thanks Possum and all of you. I can now get back to living a normal and I hope a decent campassionate life with all my fellow Australians and the bigger Global community.
VoterBoy of Over The Water said
When’s the next Newspoll out?
Possum Comitatus said
Oh, put it back in your pants VoterBoy!
bewor said
Voterboy, I reckon they’ll lie low for a few months now, hoping for a “narrowing” in the credibility gap!
HowardHater said
We’re comin’ back
😉
Chatswood Statsman said
Kirribilli Removals
Hope you’ve got the truck ready
blacklight said
SOLIDARITY FOREVER
Aspirational Aspirationalist said
We’ll its not the annihilation i called in the predictions thread, but i’m happy with the result.
Don’t know how i forgot this video. Matchbox 20’s how far we’ve come
And Poss, if you cover policies in the future, i can make contributitons on MRET, an area i’ve been looking into. They’ll probably bundle up all the state schemes into one national scheme.
VoterBoy of Over The Water said
Possum – and all you fine working families back there, a grateful expatriate community salutes you!
And now I’m off to Tescos
GrahamS said
Lets celebrate. Here’s my shameless promotion for a fond farewell to the rodent.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cKoiZX45UE (Dancing on the ceiling)
Then this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7bGOW7SzoY (Ciao [chow] Baby)
How good is this
Styx said
How sweet it is …
I can now remove the cloves of garlic and crosses from the doors and windows. 🙂
Again thanks Poss for what has been both informative and insightful commentary over the past 6 months
Mullo said
Maxine. Icing. Please.
ViggoP said
Thanks, possum, for your analysis (that has kept me sane). Thank you, possum, for being right (that will keep all Australians sane).
Rod said
Great victory! Watching Howard and Brough both go on the one night was thing to behold! McEwen still hanging on a knife edge, too!
Shame about the most boring victory speech in Australian political history but lets hope Gillard can exert her infliuence and get him up to the mark on at least some of the things that matter.
But, above all, thank goodness Howard et al have gone!
Cheers
Rod
Hamster said
Enjoy, and soak it up you lovely people
But forget not the darkness, Work Choices
Not tomorrow, but the next day
Let us set about restoring Your Rights @ Work.
bewor said
Poss, I forgot Possum’s are nocturnal creatures (besides which I remember now Qld is 50 years AND 1 HOUR behind the rest of Australia)and therefore it seems you’re still creeping around the ceiling. Thank you for all the great work, and good luck with the 89 seats! You’ll be a damn site closure than the MSM, whatever! Please think hard about the idea posted earlier today re putting a donation tab on your site – I for one would love to throw a few bucks your way to help make up for all the “free” hours you’ve put in.
And yer, Mother Therese did look like she might make the best ‘other half’ we’ve had in the last 50 years. Pity ’07’ looked a lot like a Tony Blair clone though. Shoulda been in jeans and an ’07 teeshirt for mine. That said, heaps more believable than the rodent, though.
Locobloke said
Thanks for the past few months, Possum. It has been so refreshing to have an intelligent analysis of the polls instead of the dribblings of the journalistas. Congratulations on your predictions; at the moment it looks like you are spot on.
Good luck for the future mate.
Nathan said
Just a pity Costello and Abbot didnt go with Howard and Brough, oh how very very unfortunate that was.
pendoppo said
Eeek! Do I see that it’s a hung parliament with Family Fist holding the balance of power? Tell me the Greens got in in Vic or that it’s far from over!
Stig said
As the correspondent from the ALP seat of Bennelong, I can report that the air smells pretty good here right now. I love the smell of Ratsak (N-ALP-alm) in the morning. Smells like… victory.
Kirribilli Removals said
Oh dear! Gotta stop drinking “Sham-paign” (named after Shamahan!), and get the truck ready for an early job. Some old git in his tracky daks and his heavily sedated wife. Crikey, I know it’s a ‘civic duty’, but I’m having a great time and couldn’t be arsed working on Sunday morning. Lucky I’m my own boss and not on an AWA, huh?
So I hear that “Bracket Creep” wants to run what’s left of the Liberal party? I’ll give that five minutes before the knives are out.
So long everyone, gotta hit the sack, big job tomorrow morning, dragging out the political corpse.
Orstraya, I luv ya!
Stig said
That smell … that warfarin smell…
Callum said
Thank you Possum and the community here.
I thought Gillard shone tonight on the ABC and Maxine was lovely. Some great labor women coming through (Roxon, Penny Wong). I’ll be intrigued to see how Rudd develops.
ViggoP said
In the senate: LNP = ALP + Greens. Others 1 Fielding + 1 Xenophon. We shall be living in interesting times.
Snarky Platypus said
Woohoo!
I’m still astonished at the swings in Queensland and some of the seats. Forde, Dawson, Longman and possibly Dickson – WTF?
And the margins on most Coalitions have been significantly slashed – if the Rudd govt does well in their first term, there will be further rewards.
Snarky Platypus said
Coalition seats sorry
Ash said
Let there be no mistake – I am glad the rodent is gone!! But let us not get too over-excited about the result. Elections in
australia are almost always marginal. The result depends upon the least informed, most self-interested voters changing their preferences!!
I am not complaining today, as it favours my side, but don’t pretend this is a change for the better. It is just a coincidence!!
Enemy Combatant said
El Rodente has left the building; sluiced involuntarily by democracy’s cleansing flush. You little bloody beauty. Even some Americans noticed.
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Australia-Election.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
Amaranthus said
Yeeeeeeeee haaaaaaaaa! Blowin’ in the winds of change…
greggowa said
how come it wasn’t a cricket bat? – Such beautiful irreverence and sweet irony!
otiose said
i’m just so happy – the prick is dead
otiose said
i recorded the night from about 6pm – i’m now replaying it as dessert – pass the cherries pls 😉
ViggoP said
otiose,
Don’t delete the recording: I might need to borrow it when I’m feeling down.
El roedor (rodente is pig-Spanish) esta muerte!
greggowa said
I watched the ‘turning’ with my 11 year old son- all his life he has lived under the salacious spin of the jHo. He saw it end tonight, and he also saw how the preferential voting system works. 1 for the Greens = 1 For labor (if you choose). Above the line perhaps = 1 for christian, ideological sneaky climate coalitions which if examined leads to a probable lib preference. He understood it! YAYYYY for the future!!!
Harmless Cud Chewer said
Tears of joy peoples.. tears of joy..
Never thought Id get this emotional but sigh.. the nightmare is over. .the nightmare is over.
Time to heal!
Time to heal!
Go Rudd!
big long rough drooly cow tounge type slurping for Possum!
paull said
“YOU CAN COUNT ON A QUEENSLANDER” Hey Poss doesn’t it make you feel proud
when we don’t like you we let you know “QUEENSLANDER” Go Kevie
Marrickville Mauler said
Possum you really got me through the last six months – and even made me feel a little less embarassed about the B.Ec lurking in my CV. Here’s hoping that evidence based analysis from the blogosphere and in particular from its principal marsupial can continue to make for the best government we can have
dylan said
Thanks Mr Possum for keeping us so well informed- it helped me retain my sanity throufgh the crazy final two weeks and the last two mad days- with all those “narrowing polls”.
A word of caution to all my fellow travellers- please try not to raise expectations too high- Labor always suffers from the disappointment of its own supporters who expect them to fulfil all their promises overnight. Remember it took Howard and Co almost 12 years to bugger up our society- it will take at least two terms to undo much of their ghastly agenda and get the Labot programs inplace. Please celebrate- but have a little patience too.
Meanwhile- give thanks to all those hardworking souls ( including members of unions ! ) who got us across the line.
Fozzy said
Rod @ 101
I was actually pretty impressed with Rudd’s speech. Cynically you could say he ticked off all the boxes of people to connect with: USA, Asia, Aboriginal, Migrants, Unions, etc. The reference to the USA was obviously seen as needed following Latham. But the reference to Burnie Bantum and why Unions are important was amazing! I see it in the first step on countering the Libs smear campaign on the Unions.
The reference to his parents almost brought a tear to my eyes as did him thanking Therese for all she’s had to put up with this year including the attacks on her [Aside: why does Jackie Kelly know nothing about her husband’s actions, but but Kevin is responsible for Therese’s businesses?]
Yes, his speech went on a bit long, but didn’t seem disproportionately so compared with Howard’s.
I came away from hearing Kevin’s speech even more excited about the next 3 years and how debates will be conducted in this country now.
As everyone here has said, Thanks Poss, you’ve been fantastic!
Fozzy said
A couple of Jackie Kelly bits …
Heard her earlier on this evening making the comments I wish she’d made when the leaflet scandal broke: she said I will not criticise my husband on National Radio so I’m damned if I do and damned if I don’t say what he did is wrong. Not a perfect response, but I’d be far more sympathetic with type of response.
Someone told me today The Chaser dressed up as Arabs then went to Lindsay and were handing out Liberal HTV’s. Priceless! 🙂
greggowa said
Now the question… how do we keep accountable the creation of a a new world from the old?
paull said
my god I love Queensland
paull said
10 seats gain with more to come
greggowa said
127 would have loved to have been there!
paull said
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Mike Keating said
I predicted 84 I think – I’m still in with a chance!
Joel said
You bloody ripper!!! Wooooooooooooo Hooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!
Thanks Possmeister from a fan in Japan. I’ve really enjoyed checking
your insightful blog during the campaign. Bravo!
Pi said
It’s gotta be said… Costello looked better than he has in a long long time. I’m thinking he is relieved to be finally rid of Howard.
Pi said
And Poss… my main furry little animal… your insight into this event has truly been extraordinary.
Every Australia has benefited, even if by the sometimes poor reflection of others, from your views.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. You are at the forefront of the ‘rise of the 5th estate’.
Rx said
How’s the reputation of Galaxy and Newspoll now?
Nielsen will now be the undisputed accurate poll.
Callum said
A request for a new thread please: discussion on which way we think the still-too-close-to-call seats will fall. Bennelong, Bowman, Dickson, Solomon etc…
Rocket said
Morgan’s last poll taken Friday night (53.5) was surely the most accurate.
Rocket said
After November losses in 1925, 1928, 1958, 1963, 1966 and 2001 this is Labor’s first ever November win. There have been no elections in January, February or June, so now Labor have won in every other month. People may think this is minutiae but I am sure there would have been people in the Liberal strategy group urging a November poll for this reason (among others).
It’s like Labor won in March 1983, then when in trouble called elections in March 1990 & March 1993 – the hat-trick (March 1996) didn’t come off. It’s also why the Coalition will never call a winter election (August 1943 and July 1987)
Also, anyone who thinks six weeks is a long campaign should spare a thought for Americans who are in the midst of a campaign that still has a year to run!
SBT said
At last! I am proud to be Australian once more!
Thank you Poss, thank you everyone who’s left their comments here, for sharing this wonderful, beautiful day, while I watch it all from Canada. I wish I could teleport back to Oz and run naked through the streets screaming with delight!
Queensland: Beautiful one day, national heroes the next! 🙂
I keep having to pinch myself. At last! JWH is just another bloody smear in the rear-vision mirror of Australian democracy!!
‘Straya! ‘Straya! ‘Straya! YOU BLOODY BEAUTTTTYYYYY!
Chris in LDN said
Thanks Possum, your website and expert analysis kept me sane over the past 6 months.
I’m not ashamed to say that I was lying in my London bed crying tears of joy this morning. This election has confirmed my belief in the people’s innate decency. But God at times I doubted it. …
Thank God those 11 years are over and here’s hoping Kevin starts healing some of the divisions. I’m getting pissed tonight!! And I am sending Maxine flowers 🙂
Gezza said
Well, Poss I know furry little animals are hanging around from their tails sleeping in the day time, but when you get up to forage on rotting fruit enjoy it because you certainly deserve it for all your night raids of the over plump Lib. fruit trees.
Re precise Spanish translation, si es verdad que no esta perfecto, sino ni importa de que lado se miraria, el Raton esta chingado! And no, I’d best not translate that.
Dylan of Queensland said
A Queensland Prime Minister!
Hopefully we’ve finally redeemed ourselves for Pauline Hanson.
Joop said
Possum,
Many thanks for your patience and all the detailed analyses over the last couple of months. Living abroad normally means being detached from the politics, but with blogs like yours, one is completely immersed in the process.
And Labor won! What more can I wish for? Apart from the fact that I am from WA, which bucked the trend and voted for more money, more greed and lets trample on the less fortunate people. Let’s hope this was just an aberation and next time they vote Greens for the senate.
Cheers from Bahrain.
sculls said
Possum can I too join countless others in expressing my appreciation for all the time and effort you have put into your website over the months. A fantastic election result – although this morning I am feeling decidedly crook from consuming too many bottle sandwiches.
Slightly disappointed that Rudd, in his victory speech, didn’t give special thanks (or even acknowledge) the wonderful contribution Tony Abbott made to the ALP’s campaign.
john said
Good on you Poss for extending to us over these weeks and months such a balanced and informed analysis. After standing on a booth in Mayo all day I was aware that one of the things that did not feature in any of the entrail examinations of why people vote for a candidate is the elitist fawning god delusion worship of a person who I see as ordinary. This certainly gave Downer many votes and is totally unrelated to policy or performance of Alex in Mayo. Water in Mayo whats that? Nevermind, we will get him in the by-election.
Muskiemp said
Congratulations Kevin07. You Beauty!!! what a rotten concession speech by Howard. He did not leave us with a better Australia. He continually treats us like dummies. Our strong economy is because of China and India.
Muskiemp said
The people polled over the last 12 months kept their word.
Muskiemp said
Where did those “soft votes” disappear to?
Muskiemp said
Victory to those victims of ‘SieveX”. On ya way Howard.
Diana said
Some observations from yesterday. There were two unusual things about the experience of handing out how to votes at our village polling place in the Greenway electorate. The first was the anger of Liberal sympathisers towards their own team about the excessive volume of electoral propaganda that had been mailed out. The Liberal workers were given the explanation that it had been a communications stuff up – Liberal NSW head office doubled up somehow not knowing that Louise markus’ team were already doing saturation mailouts.
The second thing was that unlike previous elections, a large number of voters did not want the How To Vote cards offered by any of us – in this case ALP, Lib and Greens. Over and over these people said to us, ‘I know what I’m doing’, ‘I’ve got a plan’, ‘I’ve thought about what I want to do’ etc. As a scrutineer, this didn’t translate to a higher informal vote in the reps, although there was a slap to ALP head office in that many voters put the Greens as their second preference – head office thought that would be too complex given the sequence of names. We’re simple country folk, but not as simple as Sussex St thinks! The other aspect was out of 1300+ Senate votes cast in the booth, only 2 voted below the line…and one of those was me.
On ABC radio news last night, I heard comment that the refusal to take how to vote papers was experienced across NSW and most significantly in Sydney. Did anyone find this happening in other states/cities.
And of course, Possum, love ya work!
r@tzRUS said
144 – I think it’s a sign of the times that Ipswich, former Pauline Hanson Central, has voted in the ALP in Blaire. This election will be seen as Queensland’s coming of age.
r@tzRUS said
Friends of ours decided to go out to the National Tally Room c. 6 pm last night and gave up when they found there was a 45 minutes wait to get in! Coupled with the unseemly cheers whenever results came up from Lindsay and Bennelong, I think it must have been quite a party; an evening’s blood sport 😉
Muskiemp said
Yes, our booths in Hinkler also noted many not taking ‘how to vote’ cards.
r@tzRUS said
I can’t believe how different I feel compared to 1972 and 1983. Then I was looking forward to a new era. Today it’s more a feeling of relief, that a pitch black chapter in our nation’s history is over. Frankly if all Rudd does is sign Kyoto, repeal WorkChoices and pull combat troops out of Iraq I’ll be happy; he’s already delivered the greatest gift of all, getting rid of this wretched government.
ae said
A very sastifying evening. Didn’t miss the irony of Howard cutting off Costello’s speech (I agree with you Rog).
Thought Rudd’s speech was very measured and gave the impression that he doesn’t take his win for granted. I do think he will have to get better at off-the-cuff remarks (the jokes he tried bombed). He has plenty of time to do this though.
Thanks so much Possum – this site has been the perfect counter to the drivel in the MSM and has kept my spirits up during the last few weeks of the campaign. You deserve a big load of whatever possums use to celebrate!
durutti said
Diana @ 152
I was on booth in Moreton and there was a similar feeling. The fact that people were queuing up at 7 p.m. to vote (hardgrave out) was also fairly telling I thought. nice work everyone. I’m declaring Monday a national holiday!
durutti said
a.m sorry, still drunk!
Rod said
Diana wrote: “I heard comment that the refusal to take how to vote papers was experienced across NSW and most significantly in Sydney. Did anyone find this happening in other states/cities.”
Certainly fairly common at the booth I was at in McEwen, Victoria, Diana,
Goodbye Mr Thatcher said
Against all the odds – the wedges, the scare campaigns funded by a truck load of taxpayers money, the dirty tricks, government bile – a triumph for democracy. Its a new dawn!!! Thanks for the space poss.
paradiseenough said
Poss, thanks for all the great work. That’s truly been a public service, as oppposed to the self aggrandising, ego driven, overpaid bastards for whom Pete C was crying crocodile tears. If you can keep the blog going as a base for policy analysis & criticism, then more power to your paw.
Dangerous said
OK, so my pick of 96 seats ALP was somewhat optimistic in the end…
But I would like to claim bragging rights for predicting the largest swing to the ALP would be in Leichardt!
Cat said
On ABC radio news last night, I heard comment that the refusal to take how to vote papers was experienced across NSW and most significantly in Sydney. Did anyone find this happening in other states/cities.
Yes Diana. In both booths I worked. One marginal and one say Liberal. Similar thing in march election. We were debating whether it would produce a large donkey vote. Interesting to note it did not in your booth.
One of favourite experiences yesterday was showing 20+ first time voters how to complete their votes when they came to me not just for their HTV but to ensure they did it correctly.
Davo said
I think we really just want to ‘move on’ from conservative politics.
Paul said
Just a couple of thoughts…Minchin said that he thought that John Howard should win his seat and then be given the dignity of resigning thus saying that bugger the voters of bennalong and bugger the millions of taxpayer dollars to be spent on a by-election. I cannot forget that Howard when he gained control of the Senate declared warfare on a whole class of people.The whole miserable lot of Liberal politicians supported Howard and I do not in anyway feel sorry for any of them who lost their seats.Its a pity that their wasnt a few more like Downer, Abbott and Costello. Howard has got his just desserts and his humiliation is to be forever remembered as the 2nd PM in history to have lost his own seat. I am just sorry that he was not the first. He has always wanted to go down in history. It is fitting that he will always be remembered as a loser. How that must dent his ego.
Cat said
One marginal and one say Liberal.
Sorry should have read safe Liberal. My head is like lead but my heart is singing.
And r@tzRUS at 156 – ditto!! Except I was only just in Primary school in ’73.
Bill O'Slatter said
Dolly would say “Pauvre petit moi, la rongeur, comme le dirigeant est mortellement blessé”
( Apologie to the French)
Davo said
And Possum, can I add to the choir and congratulate you on a great site and a job well done.
Alan H said
Oh what a beautiful feeling!
Congratulations Australia. Now we can get back to common decency, and start to like ourselves again.
cheers,
Alan H
Ron Brown said
VERY DISAPPOINTED WIT YOU POSSUM
Howard’s LAST official act as PM BEFORE giving his “concession” speech last night was to formally anoint you as an “official saint” of the Liberal Party
now ‘saint Possum’
How could you be so UN-APPRECIATIVE of this exalted honor by not even acknowledging the honor
Rumour has it that your lack of respect could result in its withdrawal in
favor of anointing “saint William Bowe”
InCider said
Possum,
Thanks for the work and analysis over the past months.
Excellent, encouraging and accurate – kept many waverers focussed.
Much appreciated.
Well Done Possum !!!!!
Now we have a large swag of Labor marginals to sweat over three years hence.
I do hope the leftie women in the caucus show their strength – and I hope all caucus members remember this result has relied on Green preferences in a large number of seats. Cultivate the Greens, for despite the MSM painting of them, many of their items of agenda are really Labor Centre-Left ground.
Dave said
*Crawls out of bed finally* So glad it happened, and not just a dream!
Very difficult to keep track of things last night trying to watch the ABC on mute in a crowded brewery with karaoke in the hunter valley. But no mistaking the cheers whenever the Bennelong figure came up.
Cheers Poss for all the effort you’ve put into keeping us all sane.
Kate Ellis for PM said
What a glorious morning- but pity about the hangover! Thanks Possum for some of the best poll/election analysis around. Hope to hear more on policy front and L/NP implosion in in weeks and months to come. The new government could do with a talent like you!
Steve K said
My family migrated to Oz in 1956 when I was 3 years of age. I’m a regular Aussie but I hold a British passport (born in Northern Ireland) and I have never become an Australian citizen. That is mostly because of general slackness when I was younger. I’ve promised my young adult children for a number of years now that I’ll swear an oath to Oz but only when my respect for the federal government has been restored. My respect has been restored and I will be applying for Australian citizenship in January when I return from overseas.
In case I have to undertake the new citizenship test can someone remind me: who is Don Bradman?
Now there’s something to cheer about – a new PM who won’t carry on like a groupie whenever our country is successful at anything in the sporting world. Rudd’s the sort of man who will cheer the nation on when we do something in the scientific world. I look forward to him standing together with the better Costello speaking about increases to overseas aid and doing something about the awful damage to families by gambling.
On ya Ruddy!
tully said
Like the Howardista 5000 image at the top.
Despite Howard’s best efforts (even yesterday he said there was no mood for change!), the swing to Labor was 1% more than in 96 to Howard.
If 96 was baseball bats, what does it make 07?
Steve K said
Maybe I should have said:
doing something about the awful damage to families by uncontrolled gambling.
I know plenty of you like a flutter occasionally and there’s no harm in that especially if you tip a Maxine to beat a rat.
GrahamS said
Diana @ 152
Yes. As I said yesterday after talking to K07 helpers in Fisher Qld they told me people were not taking HTV’s. The result? Peter Slipper’s margin has been reduced from 11% to about 2.1??. It seems the voters knew what they wanted.
I made these in anticipation of this great victory. Have a look Poss (and all) I think you’ll love it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cKoiZX45UE and
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7bGOW7SzoY Lets celebrate together!!!!!!
middle man said
while at my mates place in Norman Park last night, and during the Rats speech, we were all gathered around the tele. I turned to look out on the back deck behind us and there was a possum…. he must have been on his way to Kev’s in the next street.
bryn said
This will be Labor’s highest 2PP since the war (maybe since Federation)!
Howard’s shown himself to be even more capable than the appalling Billy McMahon in delivering victory to Labor.
Howard will indeed be fondly remembered in the Liberal Hall of Fame.
And to lose his seat as well!
Sancho said
I only bothered watching ABC & CH9, but thought ABC was down on the night.
Anthony & Kerry looked liked they wanted to take baseball bats to the crowd in the tally room. I shared their annoyance, but they should not let it show the way it did. Once finished dealing with the crowd they’d have turned the baseball bats on the computers and their producers which didn’t seem to work the way they were expecting. Two very unhappy men on the night.
The Speeches. Howard spoke well, and most of the content was appropriate – but seems to be trying to rewrite history as it still unfolds. Went on about the ‘fact’ they inherited a mess when they came to power when it’s arguable that they have coasted for the past 11 years on the coat tails of the reforms made before them. He also seemed to forget the people of Bennelong for a very long time before they were tacked on as an afterthought.
Rudd’s was remarkably uninspiring. Maybe he was overawed by the occasion, maybe he didn’t want to frighten the horses. Whatever the reason he should have shown some greater elation – just tell us in 25 words or less what you’ll do for the country. The campaign was about what you will do – if we don’t know now then why did we waste 6 weeks (months) of reading the media. In a Labor household his speech dampened the mood.
Highlight of the night was Maxine’s speech. Unbridled joy tempered by the right words. But WTF was Bob Hogg wearing? Looked like he’d been working in the garden that evening when Maxine called him in to accompany her to the ‘do’ – “Just come as you are Honey, no-one will notice.”
And thanks Poss for the background stuff over the past few months. I’ve really enjoyed looking in and seeing a new article.
Anne said
Poss and all your great respondents
I have not contributed to this blog before but have read it constantly for weeks following the polls and comments. It has been most refreshing to have such sound comment and perspectives. You kept me sane – dissecting all the spiel!!
Last night we had our first ever election night party. All present had worked tirelessly through the day in Bennelong booths handing out how to votes for the Greens. I don’t expect we will get much acknowledgement from Labor for the support we provided to Maxine’s win but we had a great night witnessing Australia voting for change.
A number of youngsters present had never seen anything like it and the older folk spent time recalling earlier election changes they had witnessed. It was lots of fun!! Sunburn and tired feet were well worth it. And champagne flowed.
Our one sad note however it that we may have lost our wonderful NSW Greens senator Kerry Nettle. She has worked tirelessly for a better Australia.
Mullo said
Does anyone know at what stage the betting agencies pay out?
SBT said
Hey r@tzRUS at comment 156, I agree with you a million percent mate! It’s been painfully clear for a long time that a large chunk of the Oz public were ready to do something about climate change, ready to get out of Iraq, ready to have a woman as PM or deputy-PM, ready to end indefinite detention of refugees, etcetera, and Howard & co were holding the country back. It feels like we’re about to spring forward to where we should have been all along. Bloody marvellous!
And Paul at comment 166, don’t sweat about the rodent being the second PM to lose his seat – I’ll always remember him as a number-two.
Incidentally, in his concession speech, there was somebody making a real ruckus halfway through. I swear it sounded like the Umbilical Brother’s doing their impression of Arnie – “GEDD OUTT! C’MON, GED OUUT!”
Gotta love the picture of Downer _not smirking_ on the ABC news site today, too 🙂
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/25/2100474.htm
Now Poss, I hereby bestow upon you the Most Noble Order of Sanity-Preserving Psephologists. May november 24th become a national holiday, where we all gather ’round the BBQ to roast rodent-on-a-stick, and honour the great and wise Possum who fortold the end of the dark times, with wit, clarity, and some nifty music videos.
Diana said
Thanks to all who have provided feedback on the mood of voters yesterday as regards not wanting How To Vote papers. I am open to suggestions as to the meaning of this change. One thing that occurs to me is Hugh MacKay’s observation about us punters waking from our dreamy, inward-gazing, home-renovating mind-set around the time of Kevin07 gaining the Labor leadership. The other thought is to do with Reality TV and the impact of phone voting for shows like Oz Idol and Dancing With The Stars 🙂
One other thing that intrigued me in an era when all babies seem to be transported in exprensive buggies was that there wasn’t a buggy in sight – plenty of mums with babes in arms – but no buggies. It evokes quite a poignant image, mother’s hunched over the cardboard booth, pencil in one hand and baby held tightly in the other.
And lastly, how about those of us who punted and won last night pooling our winnings and kick-starting a university appointment for our Possum specialising in poll interpreting. This would of course take more than our simple money, perhaps some government funding could be found. We were so lucky that the Crosby Textor tracking fell off the back of that truck. What we need is the money and circumstances for this type of polling to be done…ahem, in the public interest. Or maybe Possum has had his fill of poll gazing!
Cannon said
Possum
Once again, thanks for keeping us all sane over the last few days.
I spoke to my father several times, both last night and this morning, and he very much enjoyed his 73rd birthday presnt – a new government!
I spent much of the evening at another birthday celebration – a niece’s 21st. I spent a nervous first couple of hours in a state of high tension, literally walking in circles through the house at which the party was held place, saying barely a word to anyone, nervously sipping on a beer, and occasionally checking the progress scores. That reversed ABC graphic freaked me out! After a while, though, as the result became clear and inevitable, I relaxed.
I thought I’d be one of the few at the party interested in the election coverage, but I was amazed at how many of the younger attendees were just as keen as me to see how it unfolded. They’d grown up with Howard as the only Prime Minister most of them had known, and you could tell that they were keen for a change.
Today I’m tired – hard to sleep after all that! – but happy. I’m watching the TV recaps, ejoying every minute.
So here’s to the Rudd Government. Will it be perfect? Undoubtedly not – but it’s got to be a lot better than what we’ve just been through in the last 11+ years.
To the future!
Rick said
Costello is going to the backbenches
David Richards said
I hope you grabbed as much Election paraphernalia as you could to put aside.. should be worth something – especially Bennelong items.
The LP “tell all” books to come should be great reads lol
What a shame for Rattus Nonveritas that he didn’t get Menzies’ record 🙂
Cannon said
Peter j Nicol @68 said
>You don’t buy the postal votes argument?>
I was a bit surpised to hear that old chestnut pulled out by Nick Minchin – it may just have ben a bit of face-saving. The idea that early, absentee votes favour conservative candidates, because such supporters are more affluent and thus likely to be jet-setting or playing polo or whatever on election day, seems frankly absurd these days. I don’t know if there’s any statistical evidence to back this up in the last few decades – anyone know?
cabbie said
I have been following your blog all through the campaign.Was a total nervous wreck before the results started to arrive.Poss your updates during the day calmed my nerves!
seajay said
Thank you Possum; a greaat place to visit these last few months. What am i going to do at work now though?
Anyone one know when Hyacinth gets evicted? I think the thing i hated most about
seajay said
Sorry, sent mid-comment.
The thing (among many) that I hated most was the hide they had living in Kirribilli house like it was their private mansion.- kick ’em out pronto. Use it for the homeless. I would love to see a little doco about the decorating by Hyacinth, lots of lovely flower patterns i suspect.
John Ryan said
Bye bye Cossie!
Anyone who thought this fool would hand around to loose elections really didn’t know him.
Curtin said
Possum
I have never commented here before but have religiously read your comments and insights each day for a few months now.
You and William have sustained my faith in being able to achieve the result we all won yesterday. You have been brilliant!!
“Old academic” and “What old academic said” have already articulated my view of your impact and style – I too have consoled friends and family with your predictions.
The MSM should be both shamed and ashamed! Let their rationalisations begin!
Yesterday we collectively repudiated John Howard’s narrow bigotted and self indulgent view of the world. We showed him and his cohorts that we are much better than that.
Rod said
And now Costello has announced he won’t accept the Liberal party leadership! 🙂
see http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/costello-wont-lead-libs/2007/11/25/1195947541130.html
Who do they go to? Turnbull or Abbott?
Cheers
Rod
dave said
now Costello gone !
Work Choices – the gift that just keeps on giving 🙂
Thank you Huey – there is some justice after all !
Miss Scruffy said
So Costello didn’t have the guts to actually stand for the leadership when they gave it to him on a platter. I think Julia was spot on when she said had they swapped to him it would have been worse. The only one who seems to have had an inkling of this was Mitch Fyfield who was being very curious in endorsing Costello for leader last night on the ABC.
Possum great site – I never doubted last night’s result after reading your analysis over the whole campaign. People quite rightly point to Workchoices as the beginning of the end of this Government – well your analysis of Crosby Textor was the start of me ignoring MSM and looking at what was really happening.
drew said
Possum – invaluable service – cutting thru the crap for 6 months.
Looks like you might go close to 100% on your prediction too. 91 seats still looks possible
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseCloseSeats-13745-NAT.htm
Dylan in Murray said
So where’s the washup from Fridays polls? Or are the MSM going to pretend that didn’t happen? I know one thing – I’ll never take any notice of a Newspoll or Galaxy poll again.
dave said
Cannot wait for the infighting to start within the libs and nats. Within the week the blood will be flowing freely.
With dog bowing out of an active role its time to crack a VB in celebration !
Happy days are here again 🙂
Neilbris said
Ok PM Rudd….now it’s time to change everything. My wish list for Christmas is an apology to indigenous Australians, a referendum on the republic, a new flag, a proper enquiry into AWB and improved protocols on ministerial accountability. Anyone want to add anything?
Ratsak said
The annihilation just keep on rolling on!
drew said
ABC website hasn’t been updated for 4 hours. Newsradio is not producing news. Anyone suspect the ALP, sorry ABC had a BIG party last night?
David Richards said
stop vilification and denigration of Howard’s scapegoats – single mums, migrants, social equity payment recipients etc.
Paul said
Winner, you’ve won!
Violet said
Thank you so much possum for your calm info & rallying call to wield the pencil with hope amongst the darkest fears.
We queued at the tally room in Canbera for 1hr 45 mins to get in the door! – the crowd were fantastic, people driving by honking & waving, listening to radios, & watching Maxine slay the dragon on a little tv outside under the stars! Then we went wild inside jumping around & cheering at the back of the ABC studio coverage – to show there were thousands of Australians jumping around in their lounge rooms too – wooooooo! Just put away the pogo stick now.
Going to give our visiting neighbourhood possum some apple tonight! possum magic rules OK! Violet
Violet said
PS From a street away at 8.30 the roar from the tallyroom sounded like a football grand final! And through to after 11. Sorry if the exuberance affected the airwaves -it was 12 years worth! Violet
vince said
Newspoll and galaxy have a lot to answer for in this election. Their bogus election eve figures were clearly calculated for political purposes.
Burgey said
Hi Poss,
Thanks for keeping me sane in recent months mate.
Top job and congrats to the good guys.
Maxine autogrpahed my K07 shirt a couple of weeks ago – if it didn’t mean so much to me I’d whack it on ebay and make a quid.
Thanks again and here’s to good government.
Aspirational Aspirationalist said
Poss,
Can you also have a look at this when you do your final wrap up. Every state has atleast a -10% swing in voter turnout.
ACT a -20% swing…..
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseTurnoutByState-13745.htm
PASOK said
Mullo @ 183:
Betting agencies usually pay when the AEC officially declares the result. That means until your candidate receives 50% + 1 of the 2PP. So for some seats that could take all week.
Some agencies pay the overall election result upon concession, and others upon swearing in by the Gov Gen.