Newspoll Tuesday - March edition
Posted by Possum Comitatus on March 3, 2008
Newspoll Tuesday is upon us and its a record breaking 63/37 TPP result to the ALP.
The Nightwatchman has stormed to a new low of 7% as preferred PM, a movement greater than the MoE (for the benefit of Dennis) and Rudd is becoming more popular than a vacant safe seat at Sussex Street with a preferred PM of 73%.
If this trend continues, by mid May it’s possible that the only person in the country that would prefer the Nightwatchman to be PM will be Dennis himself (taking account of the margin of error). But after the caning young Brendan is going to cop over the next few weeks, even that might be debatable.
Anyone know some obscure statistic that 7% of the population experiences? - In this bloggyverse, all I can give you is a cite for your brilliance both here and another place for your troubles and a listing in the Hall Of Fame for such a monumental contribution to the advancement of marginally humorous politics.
But I suppose that’s still more than poor old Brendan is getting at the moment! 
UPDATE:
The Newspoll results over at The Oz are here:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-4-mar.jpg
March 3, 2008 at 10:27 pm
Careful Possum, injudicious use of that “storming” word will get you Shanahan smacks.
March 3, 2008 at 10:40 pm
hubris!…bullbutter..hubris!
March 3, 2008 at 10:40 pm
Doctor B’s in a world of hurt when the honeymoon’s over.
March 3, 2008 at 10:46 pm
Somebody stole the PPM
I suggest the Nightwatchman
March 3, 2008 at 10:47 pm
Havent looked close enough in the past to notice, but maybe your last takedown (and you’ve got 5 of the 6 listed poss) has lead them to say The maximum margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points
March 3, 2008 at 11:05 pm
Kirribilli Removals on Poll Bludger points out that:
When the Leader of the Opposition crosses the cash rate, history is being made!
LOL.
March 3, 2008 at 11:10 pm
Isn’t the number of left-handed people something like 1 in 7 on average? The proportion of females in the population is slightly more than half, so…
On average, you’ll know slightly more left-handed females than you will people who prefer Brendan Nelson as Prime Minister.
(Anyone know if Julie Bishop is left-handed? Or Julia Gillard, for that matter?
)
March 3, 2008 at 11:15 pm
GLBT’s make up about 11% of the population, don’t they? It must drive the libs nuts to know that homosexual men alone form a voting bloc larger than the group that wants Nelson to be PM.
March 3, 2008 at 11:40 pm
Not exactly 7%, but
6.9% of men could have seen a nightwatchman when they attended a outdoor cricket match in 2005-2006.
Also not exactly 7%, but
In 2005, 6% of divorces involved separation within the first year of marriage
March 3, 2008 at 11:57 pm
The more the libs attack Rudd the higher the ratings, this follows more dredging on the Burke emails and Swans misspent youth.
Maybe the libs and their supporters should try a month of singing Rudds’ praises.
March 4, 2008 at 12:01 am
Of margins of errors and poll wars (and Dr 7%)
I wrote recently about Dennis Shanahan’s attempt to revive the poll wars. Possum both answers back, and gives Dennis some incidental love by taking notice of the Newspoll.
The Nightwatchman has stormed to a new low of 7% as preferred PM, a moveme…
March 4, 2008 at 12:30 am
Welcome back to the land of the Undead, PC.. gee, it must be fun being castigated by big Denny… like being whipped with a feather Boa, till you turn to Blanc Mange.
On a technical point, the MOE quoted is for a random sample. Stratification might lead to a higher MOE, if not carefully applied.
March 4, 2008 at 12:46 am
Listen with your eyes,Possum! I think that’s about as obscure as you can get.Or maybe not.
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/10/24/1066631605516.html
http://humanresources.about.com/od/interpersonalcommunicatio1/a/nonverbal_com.htm
March 4, 2008 at 12:48 am
Has Possum Comitatus ever thought about commissioning a poll about poll commentators? And asking to Dennis to chip in? His response alone would justify the whole exercise.
March 4, 2008 at 1:30 am
Wow, Dennis is actually arguing that the other Liberal leadership contenders are too self-interested to replace Nelson. So the team’s strategy is to continue to bleed electorally? Great strategy guys!
March 4, 2008 at 6:59 am
We should be so lucky to deserve Shillsterism this good! Today “The Stenographer” aka Dead Loss Denny allows us to soar with him like buzzards from Death Valley CA—- to the fickle skies above the labyrinths of Crete.
[Nelson’s Hopes Lie in Icarus Rudd
(Always hits us with his best shot straight up)
This is a chalice so poisoned nobody wants to put it to their lips, and potential Liberal leadership aspirants realise it is in their interest to leave Nelson to continue to draw this malice.
(Shill Shanahan confirms Nightwatchman’s status)
Rudd and the Labor Government are simply so dominant it is hard to imagine any Liberal leader doing much better.
(N.B. Denny Boy’s command of realpolitik)
It’s true, for the first time, Nelson’s disapproval rating has overtaken voter satisfaction with him as Leader of the Opposition and he has entered the death valley of negative satisfaction.
(Geez , wish I could write like that)
But the Coalition’s primary support is just 31 per cent, down from 42 per cent at the last election, which it lost.
(Go Denny go, gotta love him when he gets on a roll)
If the party vote were higher, some might be tempted to argue that the leader’s single-digit humiliation was holding back the party vote.
(sorely tempted, indeed)
But at these party levels, it’s clear the voters don’t like what the Liberals stood for and are lapping up Labor’s alternative.
(The bloke’s a dead-set fucken genius, oh, and aren’t we such good little puppies?)
What’s the point of taking over a sinking ship? What Nelson is trying to do now is prepare the Coalition for the future - he’s jettisoning Howard government policies and absorbing Rudd broadsides.
(Tory rope-a-dope, right Denny?)
There’s little else he, or anyone else, can do at this stage to lift the Liberals’ fortunes.
(Careful Denny’s brilliance dosn't take you by stealth, his aftershocks can be just as devastating as his initial ka-boom)
It’s a terribly negative outlook, but it’s the only one Nelson and the Liberals have right now].
(Really got a taste for it hasn’t he? I can feel a Pulitzer coming on here! Nothing’s too good for this guy. Thirty years strong and yet untroubled by recognition from “world’s best” peer reviewers. It’s a travesty!)
March 4, 2008 at 7:45 am
You know, Possum, Dennis only still exists in this world because you keep him alive in our minds. If you ignored him he would just *poof!* disappear…
March 4, 2008 at 7:56 am
I assume Turnbull/Hockey’s strategy to attempt victory in 2010 is to front-end all the badness of a Government recently turned opposition (policy debris and uncertainty, turfing out the old-guard, party ‘reform’ and shooting some sacred cows), let Nelson take the heat then swoop in to announce a fresh readiness to rule 18 months prior to the election…
March 4, 2008 at 7:57 am
Captain Jerk and the crew of the Starship Liberprise are boldly going where no opposition leader has gone before.. seeking out new lows in opinion polls.
March 4, 2008 at 8:01 am
.. Or.. is he that other great 60’s TV character, Admiral Nelson in Voyage To The Bottom Of The Sea? The Seaview is exploring the Marianas Trench.
March 4, 2008 at 8:04 am
Briefly the rate set by the Reserve Bank but by this afternoon even the RBA cash rate should out rate him.
At 7% it really will not belong till they have to move the decimal point.
March 4, 2008 at 8:05 am
Briefly the rate set by the Reserve Bank but by this afternoon even the RBA cash rate should out rate him.
At 7% it really will not belong till they have to move the decimal point.
March 4, 2008 at 8:11 am
Kymbos are you implying that Shaman is a fairy who will disappear if we say we do not believe in him? How cruel because as book says the only way to bring him back would be to clap really hard - and what are the odds of Shaman getting enough applause?
March 4, 2008 at 8:20 am
I just loved your timing, Possum. 21 February - Dennis does dumbass. 3 March - the Possum strikes back. 4 February - Dennis is stabbed in the back by ‘his own’ pollster.
More seriously, i think he has an underlying point correct THIS time. The Libs are going to want to see nearly all of the hemlock drained from the chalice (Socrates Nelson has a nice ring to it!) before Aquaman steps up to his manifest destiny.
Or just maybe the prize has been promised to Costello
March 4, 2008 at 8:25 am
Smile according to Spears (sp?) on NewsRadio this morning Rudd is now the example to follow - Aquaman will only need 12 months to turn it around.
Now back to the real world.
March 4, 2008 at 8:36 am
[...] Possum has another dig at Shanahan. [...]
March 4, 2008 at 9:00 am
It might be nice if Rudd called a double dissolution and went back to the electorate with a platform of fewer tax cuts and more infrastructure spending. Interest rate rises make it a pragmatic (and responsible) approach, but Nelson’s approval ratings should make that course of action just about irresistable.
March 4, 2008 at 9:00 am
Rugby has a 14 man team. 7% support suggests that 1 of the 14 would be in favour of the “current” Liberal Leader.
While this is an interesting exercise it means the other 13 do not.
The only question is when is his role coming to an end. If his role is to end is not open to debate. Hence the “current” descriptor.
On a trend basis it was 9% (twice) and is now 7%. Where to from here. Any takers for 5%?
March 4, 2008 at 9:11 am
Surely there are diminishing returns? I vote for 6%!
March 4, 2008 at 10:18 am
Maybe Nelson likes “Limbo” as his nickname? Never occurred to us to ask him directly!
Oh, and Steve_e: Rugby teams tend to play better when all *15* players are on the park…
March 4, 2008 at 10:27 am
Josh: I think the current opposition would play around about the same regardless of how many players they fielded
March 4, 2008 at 10:29 am
Do the Nelson Poll Limbo
How low can he go?
Do the Nelson Poll Limbo
How low can he go go go go?
(apologies to G. Macainsh)
How about a new comp? Who can pick the bottom of the Nightwatchman’s market before he’s delisted?
March 4, 2008 at 10:45 am
DR @ 32 - As I’ve always considered 3 to be my lucky number, I’ll start things off by claiming 3% will be the floor
March 4, 2008 at 10:59 am
Does Newspoll do the whole ’sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution like Morgan does? If so, Nelson only has to lose about 28 ‘votes’ in the Poll to qualify for a # (actually it may be less than that given Morgan’s larger sample size).
I’m beginning to wonder whether his nickname shouldn’t be ‘Patsy’.
March 4, 2008 at 11:22 am
I think poor Dennis is keeping an eye on your site Poss. I just blogged him using the nightwatchman name and he didn’t post it. Methinks he’s keeping tabs on us.
All I said was: “If Nelson is now considered the nightwatchman for the libs, I guess Tony ‘people skills’ Abbott would be 12th man” or something like that and he didn’t post it. Oh yeah, I think I also told him to shove his head up his arse.
March 4, 2008 at 11:40 am
[...] I love the web, take a look at what the wonderful Possum Comitatus has to say about today’s polls. Also, I love the nickname ‘The Nightwatchman’ for [...]
March 4, 2008 at 12:18 pm
I do wonder if the drop from 9% to 7% was due to the loss of W.A. miners and mining magnates when they totally abandoned A.W.A.s on the day the last Newspoll was released. What bedrock policy plank can they drop today to bring it down to 5%?
March 4, 2008 at 12:32 pm
I think he’s just me-too’ing Rudd - Nelson’s just become Brendan07.
March 4, 2008 at 12:33 pm
Cat…middle class welfare???
March 4, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Possum
Seven per cent of the Australian population has diabetes. This number is obviously increasing, possibly more rapidly than Nelson’s PPM rating will.
http://www.healthinsite.gov.au/topics/Diabetes_Statistics
March 4, 2008 at 1:14 pm
Scaper they could nt do that because at this rate most of them will needing it pretty soon..
March 4, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Cat…Touche!
March 4, 2008 at 1:21 pm
Just clearing out my favourites folder and this Xmas card from Kudelka could now be seen as prophetic (flick/click the light switch for full “effect”):
http://www.101usesforajohnhoward.com/
March 4, 2008 at 4:16 pm
7% of the pop think that using Icarus analogies is clever …
March 4, 2008 at 4:30 pm
Coalition member quote of the day: Best not to peak too early.
March 4, 2008 at 5:32 pm
One for the Nightwatchman
http://www.despair.com/sacrifice.html
and one for Dennis
http://www.despair.com/stup24×30pri.html
Actually selecting those ones was quite difficult - there are just so Demotivators that were appropriate for them both.
March 4, 2008 at 5:39 pm
How long before his PPM rating is measured ppm!
March 8, 2008 at 3:11 am
[...] only assume that Julie is playing to the Conservative base with talk like this. Well I guess that loyal 37% of the electorate that is standing by the party in the tough times deserves a bit of rhetorical [...]