US Election and Pollytrack Updates
Posted by Possum Comitatus on June 10, 2008
To start off with, let’s have a look at how Pollytrack is going?
The ALP primary vote has reduced from 46.6% in mid May down to 46.2%. That’s the only poll movement we’ve seen from the rolling three pollster phone poll average weighted by sample size.
On US politics, Intrade has Virginia moving into the Democrat column putting the projected Electoral College votes for the Democrats at 306, which you can see over on the US Election page as well as a whole heap of weekly data goodness relating to that particular contest. This includes a new graphic showing how the State by State probabilities have changed from the past week as well as a better probability map:
For full explanations of how all these bits work, you’ll need to pop over to the US Elections page that is conveniently linked at the top of the site via the obvious button and it’s updated every Monday night/Tuesday morning. Next month US polling will also be added to that page as well as a thing called the Jaundiced View Intrade/Polling Confluence graphic which sounds a little mysterious 
Nick G said
Hey Possum,
Just a segue about Intrade. I sent them an email last week about getting some Australian Politics markets running. They got back to me in a very positive fashion, and two days later voila we have a new Australian Politics section up and running.
Possum Comitatus said
Ah, so you were the culprit!
I noticed they were up this morning. Also noticed someone has put in a bid of 40 for Turnbull leading the Libs to the next election.
Nick G said
Indeed
Though ’twas not I who bid for MT, although it’s fair.
Opp Leader could be interesting in time. The ever reliable opinionatas are informing us that Nelson is safe as leader after his stunning week of consolidating himself in double digits (in the ‘poll that really matters’, Preferred PM) but after another 6 months of Primary/2PP staying stagnant, the Opp Leader market could start to spark up a wee bit. Especially if Costello and Downer stay in parliament – Glenn Milne will be hedging his bets methinks.
gandhi said
If you go to intrade and click on Australian Politics, you get this delightful betting market description:
“Leader of the Liberal Party at the next Federal Election (Suggestions Welcome)”.
Heh.
Richard Green said
’twas I who put the bid in on Turnbull, less through the self interest that makes prediction markets work than a desire to get the market moving quickly (I am in league with Nick G).
Help me out people!
David Richards said
As for the Intrade Leader Of The Obfuscation goes – how about Wilson Tuckey? LOL
David Richards said
As far as, I meant to say