Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

Pollytrack

Each Pollytrack calculation is made up of a rolling all pollster average weighted by sample size, that operates over a 5 week maximum window, and where each pollster has only one poll contributing to the super sample at any given time.

As a pollster releases a new poll, their old poll result drops out of the rolling window, and gets replaced by their new polling data. If a pollster releases no new polling data within 5 weeks of their previous poll, their poll drops out of the Pollytrack window.

The 5 week window works best as ACNielsen (a monthly pollster) occasionally releases polls 5 weeks apart rather than the usual 4, simply because of timing issues. Using a 5 week window allows us to always have an ACN poll in the Pollytrack mix.

The beauty of this is that it gives us super samples that you can read off the chart below as well as minimum MoEs on running between 1.1 and 1.5%.

That now makes Pollytrack by far and away the most accurate tracking poll in the country bar none. Nothing else comes within a bull’s roar of this baby.

Click to expand:


Along with the Pollytrack series, we’ll also produce two charts of all polls conducted by every pollster. We will also run a Loess regression through the polling results to give us a line of best fit.

Click to expand:

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3 Responses to “Pollytrack”

  1. charles said

    What was the order of the polynomial and what weighting did you use?

  2. Possum Comitatus said

    It’s about as simple as it gets Charles, a 1st degree polynomial with an alpha bandwidth of 0.3. It uses tricube local weighting which is all pretty easy with a few mouse clicks on Eviews. Nothing fancy.

  3. fred said

    Yep that’s simple.

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