Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

A tale of two primaries

Posted by Possum Comitatus on May 30, 2007

ruddnewhoward1.jpg

The above graph is the primary votes of each party in the 12 months leading up to the election as determined by Newspoll. This assumes of course that Howard will call an election in November.

But what about the claims that Labor always does this – they get ahead and then Howard reels them in as we approach the election:

alp31.jpg

Business as usual?

Twaddle.

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2 Responses to “A tale of two primaries”

  1. EconoMan said

    That primary vote early for Rudd looks unusually low. I thought the ALP had been getting 48+ for a while now.

    Are you including some of the pre Rudd polls?

  2. possumcomitatus said

    The first month in the election year in 2007 in those graphs is December 06, which also fortuitously corresponds to Rudds leadership.So the 2007 graphs are all Rudds doing.These are the averaged Newspoll values except for May (as part of my monthly averaged Newspoll series I always keep the last value as the actual value.Once it becomes the second last value, as it will come the first June poll, it gets averaged out on the monthly basis).

    So the values are:Dec 46, Jan 44, Feb 46.5, Mar 49.5, Apr 49 May 52 noting that the May value is the last actual value.Once I get a value for June, the May value will take on the May average which will be 50.33.

    I’m also ignoring the Dennis Shanahan specials in the Newspoll series and am just using the fortnightly Tuesday values.

    BTW I am going to get back to you over water😉

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