Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

ALP Victory Index Update

Posted by Possum Comitatus on June 21, 2007


Heres what it is and how it works for those that dont know.

The drop in the ALP primary support from 52 to 46, combined with the 7 point shaving from the net satisfaction ratings for Rudd (which is Opposition leader satisfaction – dissatisfaction) have dropped the index by 3.15 points. The big hit came from the decline in the ALP primary vote as two thirds of the index originates from how far away the ALP primary vote is from 40 compared to how far away the Coalition primary vote is from 43.The distance between the May primary ALP vote and 40 halved in June. Likewise, the Coalition vote threw its contribution in by reducing the distance they were from the magical 43 number – being 8 points behind in May and cutting it down to 4 in June.


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