As God is my Newspoll, I’ll never be hungry again!
Posted by Possum Comitatus on July 13, 2007
What a whopper of a Newspoll!
Quartely data broken down by State, capital city vs. non capital city, age and gender.
There’s plenty to look at here, but over the next few days I’ll try to throw up some of the more interesting things that don’t get the attention they probably deserve.
So for todays helping we’ll go first to the primary vote swings.
What the following graphs measure is the difference between the current quarterly measure of the primary vote for each party and their primary vote at the last election. These swings are broken down into various categories:
The most important thing here is the big swings for the ALP in Qld and SA, which is where large amounts of seats are up for grabs.That said, NSW isnt looking too shabby either if you’re an ALP type.A bit bleak if you happen to be a Lib or a Nat.
Even WA, which the commentariat insists isn’t looking that crash hot for the ALP is still showing a 5.3% primary vote swing to Labor. What is even more interesting is the non-capital city swing to the ALP being as high as the capital city swing.
In Qld particularly, there are swathes of non-capital city seats which aren’t yet really believed to be up for grabs – like Blair, Flynn, Forde (now a three cornered contest), Herbert, Hinkler, Leichhardt (3 cornered contest) and Longman which, if the non-capital city swing is roughly proportional to the capital city swing in Qld (as it is nationally), must make the sitting members in those seats nervous because these could well be in play. At the very least their large margins would be completely wiped out if these patterns hold.
But where are these votes coming from?
Moving onto the government:
It’s clear that in some states there are large movements toward the ALP that aren’t coming from the Coalition vote. So let us look at how the minor party vote is playing out since the last election in terms of the swing:
There’s a bit here and a bit there going across to the ALP
What’s interesting is how minor party votes have shifted to the Coalition in Victoria and WA, albeit not by much.
The other interesting thing that came out was more information on the voter movement that happened straight after the 2005 Budget. Below we compare the ALP and Coalition primary vote by gender over the period since the last election:
Some of that 5% of the Coalition primary vote that deserted the party after the 05 Budget and went ostensibly to the Minors+Undecideds camp reveals itself.
Women didn’t like the 05 budget, but the blokes seemed to absolutely hate it. Also notice how the slope of the male and female lines for the Opposition after Rudd was elected was steeper than the slope of the lines for the Coalition. This tells us that a fair chunk of these people were parking their vote with the minors before Rudd came along, and looking at the difference between the slope of the Male and Female post-Rudd opposition lines, it looks like more females than males were parking their vote in the minors until Rudd came along and gobbled them up.
Likewise, female voters deserted the Coalition more so than male voters after Rudd came along.
I’ll probably be playing with this data set for about a week or so. Who knows what else we’ll find.
Go on. You know you want to.