Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

Margin of Terror 2 – The Dismembering

Posted by Possum Comitatus on July 15, 2007

Continuing on from Margin of Terror, let us combine these last two glorious Newspolls, the quarterly demographic Newspoll and the quarterly marginal and safe seat Newspoll to give us a very rough idea of the seats that would be in danger of falling with these enormous swings.

The following table was constructed by first dividing the individual state primary vote swings given in the demographic Newspoll by the national primary vote swing given by that demographic Newspoll. This gives us a weighting mechanism for each state that can be applied to the marginal and safe government seat swings to produce a rough estimate of the size of the marginal seat and safe government seat primary vote swings to the ALP that is occurring in each state. We can then use this measure and apply it to every Coalition held seat in the Federal Parliament to give us a very rough estimation of how the primary vote of the ALP would change in each of these seats.

For instance, the Victorian state swing to the ALP primary vote was 8.6%.If we divide this by the national swing of 11.4, we get 0.754 as the Victorian weight.If we then multiply the national ALP primary vote swing in marginal seats (9.2%) by this weight, we get a measure of the Victorian marginal seat swing of 6.9368%.

We can then add this 6.9368 to the primary vote of the ALP at the last election in any marginal Victorian seat (a seat held by the Coalition with a TPP vote of less than 6%) and get a very rough estimation of the size the ALP primary vote would be should these swings be uniform.

We can do this for every State, and for safe government seats as well.

Below is the list of all Coalition held seats after this primary vote swing was applied, where the projected ALP primary was over 40.It doesnt contain the Territory seats or the Tasmanian seats as these weren’t included in the Newspoll data.Note also Bennelong and Wentworth aren’t counted as being “in the mix” either as a result of the low primary ALP vote at the previous election in those seats, however these seats based on a TPP reading must also be considered up for grabs (big thanks to the eagle eye of Mr Cusack for pointing out that Bennelong was missing from the list).

The ALP>43 column shows an A (for ALP) if the projected ALP primary vote is greater than 43 or C (for Coalition) if it was below, signifying the most likely result.If the ALP gets 43 they usually win, with only Makin (ALP primary 43.02) and Braddon (ALP primary 43.05) having been lost at the last election where the ALP achieved over 43% of the primary vote.

The “Marginal/Safe” column tells us the whether the seat is currently marginal or safe.

The election data came from:

http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HouseFirstPrefsTppByDivision-12246-NAT.htm

And the seats don’t take into account any redistributions since the last election.

This suggests 46 seats would fall.Now clearly this isn’t going to be the case but it highlights the depth of trouble the Coalition is in.

 

Seat

State

ALP Projected Primary

Win ALP>43

Marginal/Safe

Makin

SA

52.864

A

m

Bonner

QLD

52.594

A

m

Paterson

NSW

52.353

A

s

Wakefield

SA

52.214

A

m

Kingston

SA

52.134

A

m

Petrie

QLD

51.819

A

s

Robertson

NSW

51.063

A

s

Greenway

NSW

50.998

A

m

Herbert

QLD

50.899

A

s

Longman

QLD

50.389

A

s

Bowman

QLD

50.169

A

s

Dickson

QLD

50.029

A

s

Eden-Monaro

NSW

49.688

A

m

Macarthur

NSW

49.393

A

s

Sturt

SA

49.209

A

s

Hinkler

QLD

48.974

A

m

Moreton

QLD

48.964

A

m

Cowper

NSW

48.323

A

s

Lindsay

NSW

48.068

A

m

Parkes

NSW

47.583

A

s

Hughes

NSW

47.583

A

s

Dobell

NSW

47.308

A

m

Gilmore

NSW

47.303

A

s

Blair

QLD

46.099

A

s

Leichhardt

QLD

45.999

A

s

Dawson

QLD

45.979

A

s

Boothby

SA

45.684

A

m

Forde

QLD

45.659

A

s

Grey

SA

44.969

A

s

McEwen

VIC

44.8798

A

s

McMillan

VIC

44.7968

A

m

McPherson

QLD

44.789

A

s

Hume

NSW

44.543

A

s

Gippsland

VIC

44.4198

A

s

Ryan

QLD

44.069

A

s

Macquarie

NSW

44.063

A

s

Page

NSW

44.058

A

m

Cook

NSW

43.993

A

s

Dunkley

VIC

43.8998

A

s

Corangamite

VIC

43.6868

A

m

North Sydney

NSW

43.563

A

s

Fisher

QLD

43.499

A

s

Stirling

WA

43.218

A

m

Menzies

VIC

43.1198

A

s

Deakin

VIC

43.0868

A

m

Lyne

NSW

43.073

A

s

Fadden

QLD

42.689

C

s

Hasluck

WA

42.568

C

m

Berowra

NSW

42.463

C

s

Wannon

VIC

42.1798

C

s

Warringah

NSW

41.943

C

s

Fairfax

QLD

41.809

C

s

Aston

VIC

41.4998

C

s

Flinders

VIC

41.2198

C

s

Riverina

NSW

41.003

C

s

Higgins

VIC

40.8298

C

s

Goldstein

VIC

40.7898

C

s

La Trobe

VIC

40.7068

C

m

Wide Bay

QLD

40.349

C

s

Casey

VIC

40.0098

C

s

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16 Responses to “Margin of Terror 2 – The Dismembering”

  1. Michael Cusack said

    Possum, magnificent work as is usual for you. However I think you have left out Bennelong, every amateur psephs favourite seat.

  2. Possum Comitatus said

    So it is! Along with Wentworth!

    That’s just a result of the low ALP primary at the 2004 election in those seats – thanks for picking that up, I’ve changed the post to reflect it.

  3. Lomandra said

    Hey, according to those figures, the Weather Man’ll win North Sydney!

    Mike Bailey is admittedly a bit of a dork, but I miss him.

  4. Timbo said

    There’s now way the ALP will win Wide Bay with the Traverston Dam fiasco, but I agree with all the rest:)

    Nice work Possum, I came up with roughly 47 but that included Solomon and the Two Coalition seats in Tassie

  5. Jony said

    Great work. I dont really understand the maths but I’ll take your word.

    My seat is up in the air, which is fun.

  6. Martin B said

    “And the seats don’t take into account any redistributions since the last election.”

    The main effect, I believe, would be to take Greenway off this list, move Hinkler considerably downwards and Macquarie and Blair considerably upwards.

    If you do want to include the figures here’s the Poll Bludger post: http://www.pollbludger.com/364

    Is Parramatta also missing?

  7. What about Flynn, more blue-collar than Dawson and no sitting Nat?

  8. Sorry, I see redist not included.

  9. Possum Comitatus said

    Martin,
    I was tempted to incorporate the redistributions but in the end this list isn’t a definitive one, just a rough estimate of what the newspoll data suggests is happening in each seat.To incorporate the redistributions I’d have to break down the TPP swing into a primary swing (which can be different for each seat) and it still would only be a rough guess at what is happening based on the Newspoll data.

    Parramatta isn’t on the list as it has an ALP member representing it – Julie Owens.
    If we were to take the redistribution into account that makes in a notionally Liberal seat, the projected ALP primary is a about 50%.

    Guess that would make it safe.

  10. Eric said

    Maybe your criterion of 43% should increase, given the drop in the Others vote in the previous graphs.

  11. Possum Comitatus said

    Eric,
    I have been wondering about the effect of a high ALP primary vote on minor party preference flows for a while, but from the polling evidence it seems that even with the contraction of the minor party vote over the last 6 months, the preference flows are, if anything, actually more pro-ALP than they were at the last election. If we go over here for instance:
    http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/home-truths-for-howard-in-poll/2007/07/15/1184438149563.html?page=2

    “The 58-42 two-party finding in today’s poll was based on asking respondents who chose minor parties to nominate which major party they would direct their preference to. Had preferences been allocated as they fell at the 2004 election, the poll result would be 57-43 to Labor, Mr Stirton said.”

    Which is interesting.The Morgan polls suggest the same as well.That said, it ignores the impact of How-To-Vote cards on influencing preferences, but from the available evidence, it doesn’t appear that the contracting minor vote is reducing the preference distributions to the ALP.

    If the minor parties primary vote drops from the 15-16% it was at the 2004 election down to say 12% (which would be an exceptionally low figure), and if we assume the undecideds split evenly between the major parties, that would leave an ALP candidate in a hypothetical with 43% of the primary vote needing to pick up 7 out of 12 minor party preferences to get over the line – which is about the way the preferences are flowing.

    Its weird.It’s another piece of evidence for me that suggests the ALP TPP support is quite solid.

  12. Eric said

    18 of the 46 seats there are in the 43-45 range, so a small change in the swing will have a large change in the number of seats. If you knew the Green % in some of those seats, that would just about tell you the 2PP.

  13. And the Territorians are feeling ignored ‘cos Solomon isn’t on it.

    Great work, though. Massive pollie buzz.

  14. Possum Comitatus said

    Ta

    If Newspoll is right, it’s understandable why a 16% primary vote swing toward the ALP in NSW ‘safe’ government seats might buzz a few people out.

    It shocked the shit out of me, and my livelihood doesnt depend on it😉

  15. Gracchus said

    HTV’s are not as reliable a guide to preferences as people imagine. In Makin, for instance, Greens prefs flowed to Labor at the last election in the order of 2/3 – despite a pro-Labor HTV. Vice versa, Family First prefs went Labor 1/3 despite an anti-Labor HTV. These results are also reflected in the last state election in the area.

    Having said that, there is nonetheless some evidence that a pro-Labor Family First HTV can have a beneficial impact. Stats I have seen from the last SA state poll suggest the pro-Labor Family First HTVs in a select number of seats (primarily right faction candidates) resulted in pref flows approaching 2/3. In other words, it nearly doubled the pref flows. To a degree, even where this didn’t occur pref flows improved from Family First picking up on the general pro-Labor swing – though not so dramatically or consistently.

    I’ve heard the reverse is true with Greens prefs, but the Greens almost never pref the Libs so this is a less likely circumstance. (I think there might have been some seats in Victoria’s last state election where this occurred.)

    I’ve found non-party material at point of entry is much more persuasive than HTVs. For instance, a community group handing out negative material about one candidate can be very powerful at polling booth entrance.

    With such a large Labor primary vote, my view is that minor party prefs will favour Labor regardless of HTVs. This is what tends to happen when the swing is on.

  16. […] Filed under: Uncategorized — Possum Comitatus @ 3:15 pm As many of you know, the ALP primary vote projections based on the combination of the recent quarterly demographic and Marginal/Safe seat Newspolls […]

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