Margin of Terror 2 – The Dismembering

Continuing on from Margin of Terror, let us combine these last two glorious Newspolls, the quarterly demographic Newspoll and the quarterly marginal and safe seat Newspoll to give us a very rough idea of the seats that would be in danger of falling with these enormous swings.

The following table was constructed by first dividing the individual state primary vote swings given in the demographic Newspoll by the national primary vote swing given by that demographic Newspoll. This gives us a weighting mechanism for each state that can be applied to the marginal and safe government seat swings to produce a rough estimate of the size of the marginal seat and safe government seat primary vote swings to the ALP that is occurring in each state. We can then use this measure and apply it to every Coalition held seat in the Federal Parliament to give us a very rough estimation of how the primary vote of the ALP would change in each of these seats.

For instance, the Victorian state swing to the ALP primary vote was 8.6%.If we divide this by the national swing of 11.4, we get 0.754 as the Victorian weight.If we then multiply the national ALP primary vote swing in marginal seats (9.2%) by this weight, we get a measure of the Victorian marginal seat swing of 6.9368%.

We can then add this 6.9368 to the primary vote of the ALP at the last election in any marginal Victorian seat (a seat held by the Coalition with a TPP vote of less than 6%) and get a very rough estimation of the size the ALP primary vote would be should these swings be uniform.

We can do this for every State, and for safe government seats as well.

Below is the list of all Coalition held seats after this primary vote swing was applied, where the projected ALP primary was over 40.It doesnt contain the Territory seats or the Tasmanian seats as these weren’t included in the Newspoll data.Note also Bennelong and Wentworth aren’t counted as being “in the mix” either as a result of the low primary ALP vote at the previous election in those seats, however these seats based on a TPP reading must also be considered up for grabs (big thanks to the eagle eye of Mr Cusack for pointing out that Bennelong was missing from the list).

The ALP>43 column shows an A (for ALP) if the projected ALP primary vote is greater than 43 or C (for Coalition) if it was below, signifying the most likely result.If the ALP gets 43 they usually win, with only Makin (ALP primary 43.02) and Braddon (ALP primary 43.05) having been lost at the last election where the ALP achieved over 43% of the primary vote.

The “Marginal/Safe” column tells us the whether the seat is currently marginal or safe.

The election data came from:

http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HouseFirstPrefsTppByDivision-12246-NAT.htm

And the seats don’t take into account any redistributions since the last election.

This suggests 46 seats would fall.Now clearly this isn’t going to be the case but it highlights the depth of trouble the Coalition is in.

 

Seat	State	ALP Projected Primary	Win ALP>43	Marginal/Safe
Makin	SA	52.864	A	m
Bonner	QLD	52.594	A	m
Paterson	NSW	52.353	A	s
Wakefield	SA	52.214	A	m
Kingston	SA	52.134	A	m
Petrie	QLD	51.819	A	s
Robertson	NSW	51.063	A	s
Greenway	NSW	50.998	A	m
Herbert	QLD	50.899	A	s
Longman	QLD	50.389	A	s
Bowman	QLD	50.169	A	s
Dickson	QLD	50.029	A	s
Eden-Monaro	NSW	49.688	A	m
Macarthur	NSW	49.393	A	s
Sturt	SA	49.209	A	s
Hinkler	QLD	48.974	A	m
Moreton	QLD	48.964	A	m
Cowper	NSW	48.323	A	s
Lindsay	NSW	48.068	A	m
Parkes	NSW	47.583	A	s
Hughes	NSW	47.583	A	s
Dobell	NSW	47.308	A	m
Gilmore	NSW	47.303	A	s
Blair	QLD	46.099	A	s
Leichhardt	QLD	45.999	A	s
Dawson	QLD	45.979	A	s
Boothby	SA	45.684	A	m
Forde	QLD	45.659	A	s
Grey	SA	44.969	A	s
McEwen	VIC	44.8798	A	s
McMillan	VIC	44.7968	A	m
McPherson	QLD	44.789	A	s
Hume	NSW	44.543	A	s
Gippsland	VIC	44.4198	A	s
Ryan	QLD	44.069	A	s
Macquarie	NSW	44.063	A	s
Page	NSW	44.058	A	m
Cook	NSW	43.993	A	s
Dunkley	VIC	43.8998	A	s
Corangamite	VIC	43.6868	A	m
North Sydney	NSW	43.563	A	s
Fisher	QLD	43.499	A	s
Stirling	WA	43.218	A	m
Menzies	VIC	43.1198	A	s
Deakin	VIC	43.0868	A	m
Lyne	NSW	43.073	A	s
Fadden	QLD	42.689	C	s
Hasluck	WA	42.568	C	m
Berowra	NSW	42.463	C	s
Wannon	VIC	42.1798	C	s
Warringah	NSW	41.943	C	s
Fairfax	QLD	41.809	C	s
Aston	VIC	41.4998	C	s
Flinders	VIC	41.2198	C	s
Riverina	NSW	41.003	C	s
Higgins	VIC	40.8298	C	s
Goldstein	VIC	40.7898	C	s
La Trobe	VIC	40.7068	C	m
Wide Bay	QLD	40.349	C	s
Casey	VIC	40.0098	C	s