What’s a swing worth?
Posted by Possum Comitatus on July 17, 2007
Just a quick nifty little graph today based on the Mackerras Pendulum.Click on it to blow it up.
What it shows is how many seats the ALP would win or lose at the election for a given uniform swing.
The way to read the graph is simple, pick a swing on the left hand side, trace it across until it intersects the red line, then move down to the bottom axis to see how many seats the ALP would win or lose based on that swing.
For example, if the ALP had a swing against it of 1%, which would be a -1% swing, they would lose 4 seats.
If the ALP had a swing toward it of just over +2%, it would gain 8 seats, and a +5% swing would gain them 19 seats.