Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

Pollycide 2 – Draft Numbers

Posted by Possum Comitatus on July 18, 2007

This article has been rewritten as well to hook more coherently into Part 1.

OK folks, we have the first draft of the numbers on the trends we highlighted earlier in Pollycide Part 1. If you haven’t read it, I suggest you do.

The way these were calculated was kind of complicated but used a type of linear programming, which is basically where glorious software figures out the value X (the size of the swing in each seat cohort) under the constraints of A, B, C etc, or in our case the various swings and proportions which make the numbers balance out to reflect the Newspoll data.

The table contains the seat, then the state, then the nominal TPP from the 2006 redistribution followed by the estimated ALP and Coalition TPP figures.These are all currently Coalition held seats.

 

Seat State 2006 Redistribution   ALP Est Coalition Est
    ALP TPP Coal TPP      
Macquarie NSW

50.5

49.5

 

61.83

38.17

Wakefield SA

49.3

50.7

 

59.24

40.76

Kingston SA

49.9

50.1

 

59.01

40.99

Bonner QLD

49.4

50.6

 

58.74

41.26

Makin SA

49

51

 

58.11

41.89

Eden-Monaro NSW

46.7

53.3

 

57.22

42.78

Wentworth NSW

47.4

52.6

 

57.09

42.91

Lindsay NSW

47.1

52.9

 

56.79

43.21

Moreton QLD

47.2

52.8

 

56.54

43.46

Blair QLD

44.3

55.7

 

56.11

43.89

Herbert QLD

43.9

56.1

 

55.71

44.29

Bennelong NSW

46

54

 

55.69

44.31

Hasluck WA

48.1

51.9

 

55.62

44.38

Cowper NSW

43.4

56.6

 

55.56

44.44

Stirling WA

47.9

52.1

 

55.42

44.58

Longman QLD

43.4

56.6

 

55.21

44.79

Page NSW

44.5

55.5

 

55.02

44.98

Dobell NSW

45.2

54.8

 

54.89

45.11

Sturt SA

43.2

56.8

 

54.78

45.22

McEwen VIC

43.5

56.5

 

54.64

45.36

Paterson NSW

43.2

56.8

 

54.53

45.47

McMillan VIC

45

55

 

54.50

45.50

Robertson NSW

43.1

56.9

 

54.43

45.57

Corangamite VIC

44.6

55.4

 

54.10

45.90

Petrie QLD

42.1

57.9

 

53.91

46.09

Boothby SA

44.6

55.4

 

53.71

46.29

Deakin VIC

45

55

 

53.67

46.33

Kalgoorlie WA

43.6

56.4

 

53.59

46.41

Gippsland VIC

42.2

57.8

 

53.34

46.66

La Trobe VIC

44.1

55.9

 

52.77

47.23

Dickson QLD

40.9

59.1

 

52.71

47.29

Gilmore NSW

40.5

59.5

 

52.66

47.34

Hughes NSW

41.2

58.8

 

52.53

47.47

FLYNN QLD

42.2

57.8

 

52.37

47.63

Bowman QLD

41.1

58.9

 

52.08

47.92

Dawson QLD

39.8

60.2

 

51.61

48.39

Higgins VIC

41.2

58.8

 

51.51

48.49

Leichhardt QLD

39.7

60.3

 

51.51

48.49

Hinkler QLD

41.2

58.8

 

51.37

48.63

North Sydney NSW

39.9

60.1

 

51.23

48.77

Dunkley VIC

40.6

59.4

 

50.91

49.09

Kooyong VIC

40.4

59.6

 

50.71

49.29

Ryan QLD

39.5

60.5

 

50.48

49.52

Canning WA

40.4

59.6

 

50.39

49.61

Macarthur NSW

38.9

61.1

 

50.23

49.77

Goldstein VIC

39.9

60.1

 

50.21

49.79

Warringah NSW

38.7

61.3

 

50.03

49.97

Flinders VIC

38.8

61.2

 

49.94

50.06

Menzies VIC

39.3

60.7

 

49.61

50.39

Wide Bay QLD

37.8

62.2

 

49.61

50.39

Forrest WA

39.5

60.5

 

49.49

50.51

Hume NSW

37.1

62.9

 

49.26

50.74

Casey VIC

38.6

61.4

 

48.91

51.09

Forde QLD

37

63

 

48.81

51.19

Fisher QLD

37

63

 

48.81

51.19

Wannon VIC

37.6

62.4

 

48.74

51.26

Greenway NSW

39

61

 

48.69

51.31

Fairfax QLD

36.7

63.3

 

48.51

51.49

Moore WA

39.1

60.9

 

48.26

51.74

Berowra NSW

36.9

63.1

 

48.23

51.77

Lyne NSW

35.9

64.1

 

48.06

51.94

This is one alternative of what could explain the swings from quite a large number of mathematical possibilities, but it is the one probably closest to the ‘median possibility’ (which is not a particularly technical term BTW, but literal) , in that the others contained quite large swings in some seat cohorts and produced some pretty funny results.

That’s 47 seats falling in July according to the quarterly Newspoll data analysed to within an inch of its life, and we still have around a 2% swing to the ALP to allocate in NSW that can’t be extracted properly from the data without producing some silly things, as well as an extra 3% or so swing to the ALP in the government safe seats. Those two probably are a bit of a twin act in NSW somewhere, but the latter could well be spread around.

This is something approaching the most likely result of an election were it held in July based singularly on uniform swings by state, city type and safe/marginal grouping that is consistent with the Newspoll data. However, with a 2% swing to the ALP not really accounted for, there would have been some reallocation of the size of the vote in some of those seats, possibly including the loss of an extra 10-15 seats as a worse case scenario for the government, depending on where that extra swing went.

This is a little better for the Coalition than I had expected from the initial play around with the data in Pollycide Part 1, but only just. You might notice that the ALP TPP has calmed down a fair bit from the earlier post that used the Experimental TPP– that’s the result of removing as much feedback from the combined swing issues as was possible, but you also might notice that the seats, or rather the types of seats identified in Pollycide Part 1 as being in danger was actually pretty close to the mark.

That gigantic 14.6% swing happening in the safe government seats is the real, profound danger for the Coalition. I can’t remember anything like this happening before (maybe the living electoral encyclopaedia Adam could tell us) and only local factors would have saved the Coalition any marginals were an election held in July.

The other big killer is the fact that the safe ALP seats have only swung 4.1%.It’s not unusual for largish swings to happen, but in the wrong seats such as the ALP experienced in the 1998 election.

This, however, is a completely different ballgame. The swings are in all the right places for the ALP and all the wrong ones for the Coalition. It’s leading me to believe that if the polling behaviour holds, the ALP will win more seats, a lot more seats than their national swing would ordinarily suggest.

 

So the question becomes, if there are big swings happening in unusual places, which there must be for the Newspoll data to be right (which it surely would be – who doesnt worship the truthly godliness of the Newspoll?😉 ) where are they?

Anyone on the ground in safe government seats, particularly in NSW and Qld that are picking up an anti-government vibe worth around, oh….. say, 14.6% ?

Continue on to Part 3 – The Verification

 

 

 

 

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11 Responses to “Pollycide 2 – Draft Numbers”

  1. Symplifyd said

    Yesterday, was a crappy day for various reasons, today I noticed you were hunting for data and figured you were working on something..

    That always makes me happy..

    But this…this was simply amazing🙂

    If your half right I’m rapt.

    Thanks buddy,

  2. Symplifyd said

    Opps,forgot to say

    The Reds on me, send me the bill

    Cheers

  3. Heretic said

    I will now go to bed happy, thinking of all the gov seats falling.

  4. Heretic said

    By the way tomorrow’s SMH should be interesting after Lateline tonight. An extract of the Howard biography, where Costello dumps on Howard’s time as treasurer.

  5. Peter Mc said

    your work is becoming legendary – just one thing though, would it be possible in your tables of seats to include which party currently holds them? That is after your well earned glass of red etc.

  6. gusface said

    Possum
    Canada 1993 is the biggest anti Gvt swing in modern western politics
    Maybe we can take that record

  7. Charlie said

    Possum, at the risk of asking too much, is it possible that you might post the anticipated swings for Coalition seats not under thread and ALP-held seats as well?

  8. Mark said

    Look, this is very interesting, but as Ross Garnaut would say, it doesn’t really pass the “Laugh Test” does it?

    http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2004/s1100462.htm

  9. Mr Q said

    gusface, Canada 1993 was really caused by the failings of first-past-the-post voting, causing the Liberals to win seats they shouldn’t have because right wing parties split the vote. Not going to happen here.

    It’s interesting though that a lot of people have been speculating on a close election because theoretically Labor needed something like 52% of the vote to win with a uniform swing – but if Possum’s right, and the swings are happening mostly where Labor really needs them, it may be that Labor needs only 48% of the vote to win (as per the Libs in 1998), and if they then get the 52% people are predicting, it would be a landslide.

  10. Ben said

    I suspect this federal election may be a little like the 2001 WA state election in terms of the large swings in government seats. In 2001 several Court government ministers lost their seats with margins of 10% +. The swing in marginal and Opposition held seats was less though.

  11. Tomasso said

    Hi Poss,

    From what I recall, the AEC use a principle like “4th power” when they rejig electoral boundaries (this might be old hat, nowadays). This basically meant a 1% swing of support for the two major parties should result in a 4% change in seats (if the swing is uniform, etc). It’s a system that encourages two party political systems (unlike Italy, say or Tasmania).

    Your analysis and the MacKerras Pendulum reflect the same thing as specific seats at risk – ie, slaughter. Your futher analysis on top of this (higher incremental down swing in stronger LP seats, and lower in save ALP seats) adds some spice. Pity there isn’t a bit more data to get tighter on interaction effects, but your product of weights is clean enough for man effect. Text book stuff!

    A reflection on the softer swing in safe ALP seats: The pool of prospective swingers in made up of those who voted LP (or minor parties) last time. That’s a much smaller proportion of safe ALP electorate, than in a “safe” LP seat. Or, maybe the ALP worked out they don’t need to try hard where they are safe (no need to contest aggressively).

    The Indian Doctor factor is the next cab off the rank. I wonder how that will turn out…

    Costello seems to be in a lose-lose situation at the moment.

    Cheers, Tomasso.

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