Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

Pollycide Part 1

Posted by Possum Comitatus on July 18, 2007

I’ve completely rewritten this article to make it more coherent and reflective of what I was trying to say rather than making it look like the government was going to be nailed with a 70 seat loss. Yesterdays attempt was appalling gibberish that confused everyone including myself.So if you’ve read this before – it’s now all new and improved!

If you havent, welcome aboard to a long argument😉

As many of you know, the ALP primary vote projections based on the combination of the recent quarterly demographic and Marginal/Safe seat Newspolls showed what can only be described as horrific results for the Coalition.

Well let me say from the outset, what you are about to witness cannot be described as anything other than absolute devastation. Coalition supporters might want to remove any sharp objects from their vicinity before reading on.

The previous projections were rough, they didn’t take into account the redistributions since the last election, and they didn’t take into account capital vs. non capital breakdowns which is really, really important in some States. But most importantly, as I stated at the beginning of that article, it didn’t include the most recent quarterly Newspoll because, frankly, I didn’t believe it’s contents. Not that it was wrong, but just that I COULD NOT BELIEVE what it was saying and what I was seeing.

You see, the data from the last quarterly Newspoll is even worse for the Coalition than the Q1 Newspoll. Much, much worse as the results in the states with the most Coalition seats, like NSW, tanked in the last quarter whereas the ground the Coalition made up were in States like WA ands SA where the seats they hold are relatively few.

This is the real danger that these latest Newspoll numbers hint at.

What we are going to do is create a set of weighted ratios out of that quarterly Newspoll data and apply them to Coalition seats – not to tell us what the vote necessarily is in those seats, but to highlight the Coalition seats that are in danger because of the way the vote is swinging.

To start with, we’ll use a breakdown of the redistributed two party preferred results since the last election based on the Mackerras Pendulum for the initial redistribution, and make experimental TPP projections and swing projections based on the last quarterly Newspoll, March to July 2007 including State, Capital City vs. Non Capital City and Marginal vs Safe swings.

I took the State based Newspoll figures and determined the TPP swing for the ALP since the last election by State. I then took the national TPP swing for the ALP since the last election from that same Newspoll.

I then divided each State swing by the national swing to give me a state weight. Let’s use NSW as an example. The NSW swing to the ALP was 12.2, and the national swing was 9.8.The state swing divided by the national swing is 1.245.

That means in NSW the swing towards the ALP is 1.245 times the national swing.

I then took the national capital city swing towards the ALP (9.5) and divided it by the national swing (9.8) to give me a capital city weight of 0.969.This means that the capital cities are swinging 0.969 times the national swing. I repeated this process for the non-capital cities to arrive at a non-capital city weight of 1.245 (Yes it is the same as the NSW State weight as both had a TPP swing to the ALP of 12.2).

Next I took the national marginal seat TPP swing to the ALP (9.3) and divided it by the national swing (9.8) to get a marginal seat weight of 0.949.I repeated this process to get a safe government seat weight of 1.4898. That, by the way, is huge.

To get an idea of how these weights stack up on a seat by seat basis is simple and best explained with an example. Let’s take the NSW seat of Bennelong (every psephs favourite seat)

At the 2004 election the TPP result was 54.33% Coalition and 45.67% ALP.

The effect of the 2006 redistribution on Bennelong was to reduce that TPP down to a notional Coalition 54% and ALP 46%.

Bennelong is a NSW, capital city, marginal seat. Hence, the estimated TPP vote for Bennelong based on the Newspoll quarterly breakdown, using the weights described above is:

Estimated Bennelong TPP for the ALP = Redistributed ALP TPP + (state weight * capital city weight * marginal seat weight * national swing).

Hence, the estimated ALP TPP for Bennelong = 46 +(1.245 * 0.969 * 0.949 *9.8)

= 46 + 11.22

= 57.22

These are the ALP swings and the ALP swing weights as determined by the Newspoll data for the March-July 2007 results.

The National Swing is 9.8

NSW, swing 12.2, weight 1.245

Vic , swing 9, weight 0.918

Qld, swing 11.1, weight 1.133

SA , swing 10.4, weight 1.061

WA, swing 5.4, weight 0.55

Marginal Seat swing = 9.3 weight = 0.949

Safe Government Seat swing = 14.6 weight = 1.490

Capital City swing = 9.5 weight = 0.969

Non Capital City swing = 12.2 weight = 1.245

However, we have a problem. There will be feedback between some of the weights, for instance if there is a large swing in non-capital city NSW, that will inflate both the non-capital city ALP swing AND the NSW ALP swing AND most likely the swing against the government safe seats. If we apply that weighted swing to most seats it will produce an inflated TPP result.

But it’s also a good thing.

The feedback built into the weights also allows us to identify the seats that are most likely to be suffering swings against them simply because of where those big swings broadly identified by Newspoll are occurring.

For instance, we know NSW has a 12.2% swing to the ALP, we know that there is a swing against the government of 14.6% in their safe seats and we know that non-capital city seats are swinging slightly more than capital city seats. So its probably a fair assumption to make that there are a number of NSW non capital city seats, that are considered safe government seats and which are experiencing very large swings.

What the following table attempts to do is to identify those seats by using an experimental, weighted TPP projection and a nominal swing projection for each seat derived from that TPP. These are based on the 2006 redistribution as the underlying, pre-existing TPP vote for the last election.All seats are nominally (as in post 2006 redistribution) Coalition held seats.

 

Seat State ALP TPP   Experimental ALP Experimental ALP
    2006 Redistribution   TPP Swing
Cowper NSW

43.4

 

66

22.6

Paterson NSW

43.2

 

65.8

22.6

Gilmore NSW

40.5

 

63.1

22.6

Hume NSW

37.1

 

59.7

22.6

Lyne NSW

35.9

 

58.5

22.6

Farrer NSW

34.6

 

57.2

22.6

Parkes NSW

31.2

 

53.8

22.6

Riverina NSW

29.3

 

51.9

22.6

Blair QLD

44.3

 

64.9

20.6

Herbert QLD

43.9

 

64.5

20.6

Longman QLD

43.4

 

64

20.6

FLYNN QLD

42.2

 

62.8

20.6

Petrie QLD

42.1

 

62.7

20.6

Dickson QLD

40.9

 

61.5

20.6

Dawson QLD

39.8

 

60.4

20.6

Leichhardt QLD

39.7

 

60.3

20.6

Wide Bay QLD

37.8

 

58.4

20.6

Fisher QLD

37

 

57.6

20.6

Forde QLD

37

 

57.6

20.6

Fairfax QLD

36.7

 

57.3

20.6

McPherson QLD

36

 

56.6

20.6

Fadden QLD

34.7

 

55.3

20.6

Groom QLD

31

 

51.6

20.6

Moncrieff QLD

30.1

 

50.7

20.6

Maranoa QLD

29

 

49.6

20.6

Mayo SA

36.4

 

55.7

19.3

Grey SA

36.1

 

55.4

19.3

Barker SA

30.1

 

49.4

19.3

Macquarie NSW

50.5

 

68.1

17.6

Robertson NSW

43.1

 

60.7

17.6

Hughes NSW

41.2

 

58.8

17.6

North Sydney NSW

39.9

 

57.5

17.6

Macarthur NSW

38.9

 

56.5

17.6

Warringah NSW

38.7

 

56.3

17.6

Berowra NSW

36.9

 

54.5

17.6

Cook NSW

36.3

 

53.9

17.6

Mackellar NSW

34.5

 

52.1

17.6

Bradfield NSW

32.5

 

50.1

17.6

Mitchell NSW

29.3

 

46.9

17.6

McEwen VIC

43.5

 

60.2

16.7

Gippsland VIC

42.2

 

58.9

16.7

Flinders VIC

38.8

 

55.5

16.7

Wannon VIC

37.6

 

54.3

16.7

Indi VIC

33.7

 

50.4

16.7

Murray VIC

25.9

 

42.6

16.7

Mallee VIC

25.2

 

41.9

16.7

Bowman QLD

41.1

 

57.1

16

Ryan QLD

39.5

 

55.5

16

Sturt SA

43.2

 

58.2

15

Eden-Monaro NSW

46.7

 

61.1

14.4

Page NSW

44.5

 

58.9

14.4

Hinkler QLD

41.2

 

54.3

13.1

Higgins VIC

41.2

 

54.2

13

Dunkley VIC

40.6

 

53.6

13

Kooyong VIC

40.4

 

53.4

13

Goldstein VIC

39.9

 

52.9

13

Menzies VIC

39.3

 

52.3

13

Casey VIC

38.6

 

51.6

13

Aston VIC

36.8

 

49.8

13

Wakefield SA

49.3

 

61.6

12.3

Wentworth NSW

47.4

 

58.6

11.2

Lindsay NSW

47.1

 

58.3

11.2

Bennelong NSW

46

 

57.2

11.2

Dobell NSW

45.2

 

56.4

11.2

Greenway NSW

39

 

50.2

11.2

McMillan VIC

45

 

55.6

10.6

Corangamite VIC

44.6

 

55.2

10.6

Bonner QLD

49.4

 

59.6

10.2

Moreton QLD

47.2

 

57.4

10.2

Kalgoorlie WA

43.6

 

53.6

10

Canning WA

40.4

 

50.4

10

Forrest WA

39.5

 

49.5

10

Pearce WA

37

 

47

10

O’Connor WA

29.6

 

39.6

10

Kingston SA

49.9

 

59.5

9.6

Makin SA

49

 

58.6

9.6

Boothby SA

44.6

 

54.2

9.6

Deakin VIC

45

 

53.3

8.3

La Trobe VIC

44.1

 

52.4

8.3

Moore WA

39.1

 

46.9

7.8

Tangney WA

38.2

 

46

7.8

Curtin WA

35.3

 

43.1

7.8

Hasluck WA

48.1

 

53.1

5

Stirling WA

47.9

 

52.9

5

Please note, this too is rough, and could be cleaned up even further with more time and more data. But that clean up process wouldn’t dramatically alter the nature of what is going on.

What the above table tells us is that the seats with the highest experimental swing are the best candidates to actually be experiencing swings against them that are necessary to balance out the Newspoll data.

The problem for the government comes from the 14.6% swing against their safe seats being an average swing. Now clearly some coalition safe seats wont be swinging much at all, which makes other safe coalition seats having larger than 14.6% swings against them to balance out the numbers. Some probably having much larger swings against them.

For the Newspoll figures to be right means that a lot of these seats will have fallen if an election were held in July. They wouldn’t have fallen with those margins (because, remember they are inflated), but still would have gone.I’ll put some more realistic numbers to these swings in Part 2.

The danger for the government here is if the swing against their safe seats is uniform. The more uniform it is, the most seats they will lose.The government holds 49 seats that are considered safe (i.e. are held with a buffer of more than 6%) but are held with a margin of less than this 14.6% swing against them.

This is why uniformity in this swing would wipe them out. When I was playing around with this a few days ago, I couldn’t believe what I was seeing – we all talk about elections being won or lost in the marginals, but if the polls hold, the marginals will be irrelevant. Not that the Coalition is doing particularly well in that area either, with a 9.3% swing against them there.

And nor can they be satisfied of the usual saviour of anti-government swings – the swings in the opposition safe seats. The ALP is only picking up an average of a 4.1% swing in their own safe seats. That too is extremely surprising.

In part 2, I’ll use some linear programming (or what the more pure end of mathematics calls matrix algebra) to whittle down the size of these swings to be consistent with the national, state, capital city vs. non capital city and safe vs. marginal seats swings.Then we might get a better idea of how an election may have looked like were it held in July.

One thing is clear however, these results are catastrophic for the government, suggesting that only a handful of seats are truly safe and that there will be massive swings against them in many seats they thought were untouchable. That simply has to be the case for the size of the swings to balance out.

 

CONTINUE on to Part 2 where some realistic numbers are produced to reflect the actual swings

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30 Responses to “Pollycide Part 1”

  1. THB said

    And here I was thinking that O’Connor was going to have a 30+% swing towards the coalition! Thanks for fixing that up.

    Out of interest, what software are you using to do your calcs?

  2. Mr Q said

    If this happened, then you’d be able to describe the Coalition as the WA Liberal Party – and the WA Libs couldn’t run a chook raffle if you gave them a raffle book and a bunch of chooks.

  3. jasmine_Anadyr said

    My goodness – if Canning is marginal Liberal after the election it is a wonderful wonderful thing, if it falls OMG *doing happy dance and looking very stupid* I don’t care if you are statistically wrong the joy the projections have given me already are well worth all your effort and smarts (from my perspective anyways).

  4. THB said

    Hey, Paul Omodei is a completely capable…

    …ahahahaha *sniffs* sorry. Oh, I miss Matt Birney, at least he was fun. Omodei is all thumbs. *boom-tish*

  5. jasmine_Anadyr said

    Bring back Colin of the Canals, or just make the editor of the West automatic leader of the opposition in WA. Or should that be the CCI president?

  6. Possum Comitatus said

    You’ve got to keep in mind that this swing wont happen, this is averaging of averages, and weighting of averages and there is feedback in these swings (such as the high NSW swing probably feeding back into the high non-capital city swing), so these will lop a few points of the ALP TPP in some seats, but it highlights the main problem:

    The Coalition is weakest where they have the most seats, NSW and non-capital city safe government seats.A 14.6% swing against the government safe seats, which is what the Newspoll quarterly results were, cannot do anything BUT wipe out massive numbers of seats.Any seat that is currently held by the coalition by more than 6%, but less than 14% is in danger of going (on average).That’s what a 14.6% swing against safe government seats does.

    I was really hesitant about putting this up because it looked ridiculous.

  7. Charlie said

    Good God.

    You know, I knew Howard was gone but… wow.

  8. sondeo said

    Please god let it be so !
    JWH deserves this as his legacy.

  9. gusface said

    Possum
    Maple syrup for everyone

  10. THB said

    Just to play the hypothetical out, here are the list of members belonging to those seats that the predicted TPP ends up favouring Labor:

    Macquarie NSW – Mr Kerry BARTLETT
    Cowper NSW – Mr Luke HARTSUYKER
    Paterson NSW – The Hon Bob BALDWIN
    Blair QLD – Mr Cameron THOMPSON
    Herbert QLD – The Hon Peter LINDSAY
    Longman QLD – The Hon Mal BROUGH
    Gilmore NSW – Mrs Joanna GASH
    Petrie QLD – The Hon Teresa GAMBARO
    Wakefield SA – Mr David FAWCETT
    Dickson QLD – The Hon Peter DUTTON
    Eden-Monaro NSW – The Hon Gary NAIRN
    Robertson NSW – The Hon Jim LLOYD
    Dawson QLD – The Hon De-Anne KELLY
    Leichhardt QLD – The Hon Warren ENTSCH
    McEwen VIC – The Hon Fran BAILEY
    Hume NSW – Mr Alby SCHULTZ
    Bonner QLD – Mr Ross VASTA
    Kingston SA – Mr Kym RICHARDSON
    Page NSW – The Hon Ian CAUSLEY
    Gippsland VIC – The Hon Peter MCGAURAN
    Hughes NSW – The Hon Danna VALE
    Wentworth NSW – The Hon Malcolm TURNBULL
    Makin SA – Mrs Trish DRAPER
    Lyne NSW – The Hon Mark VAILE
    Wide Bay QLD – The Hon Warren TRUSS
    Lindsay NSW – The Hon Jackie KELLY
    Sturt SA – The Hon Christopher PYNE
    Fisher QLD – The Hon Peter SLIPPER
    Forde QLD – Mrs Kay ELSON
    North Sydney NSW – The Hon Joe HOCKEY
    Moreton QLD – The Hon Gary HARDGRAVE
    Fairfax QLD – The Hon Alexander SOMLYAY
    Farrer NSW – The Hon Sussan LEY
    Bennelong NSW – The Hon John HOWARD
    Bowman QLD – Mr Andrew LAMING
    McPherson QLD – Mrs Margaret MAY
    Macarthur NSW – The Hon Pat FARMER
    Dobell NSW – Mr Ken TICEHURST
    Warringah NSW – The Hon Tony ABBOTT
    Mayo SA – The Hon Alexander DOWNER
    McMillan VIC – Mr Russell BROADBENT
    Ryan QLD – Mr Michael JOHNSON
    Flinders VIC – The Hon Greg HUNT
    Grey SA – Mr Barry WAKELIN
    Fadden QLD – The Hon David JULL
    Corangamite VIC – Mr Stewart MCARTHUR
    Berowra NSW – The Hon Philip RUDDOCK
    Hinkler QLD – Mr Paul NEVILLE
    Wannon VIC – The Hon David HAWKER
    Higgins VIC – The Hon Peter COSTELLO
    Boothby SA – Dr Andrew SOUTHCOTT
    Cook NSW – The Hon Bruce BAIRD
    Parkes NSW – The Hon John COBB
    Kalgoorlie WA – Mr Barry HAASE
    Dunkley VIC – The Hon Bruce BILLSON
    Kooyong VIC – Mr Petro GEORGIOU
    Deakin VIC – Mr Phillip BARRESI
    Hasluck WA – Mr Stuart HENRY
    Goldstein VIC – The Hon Andrew ROBB
    Stirling WA – Mr Michael KEENAN
    La Trobe VIC – Mr Jason WOOD
    Menzies VIC – The Hon Kevin ANDREWS
    Mackellar NSW – The Hon Bronwyn BISHOP
    Riverina NSW – Mrs Kay HULL
    Casey VIC – The Hon Tony SMITH
    Groom QLD – The Hon Ian MACFARLANE
    Moncrieff QLD – Mr Steven CIOBO
    Canning WA – Mr Don RANDALL
    Indi VIC – Mrs Sophie MIRABELLA
    Greenway NSW – Mrs Louise MARKUS
    Bradfield NSW – The Hon Dr Brendan NELSON

  11. Lomandra said

    I don’t know, Possum. Either you’re hallucinating or I am.😉

    Could it really be that my local member, the esteemed Mr Ruddock, could be out on his ear?

    *rubs eyes* *tries to focus*

    Nah.

  12. Lomandra said

    Almost more to the point, THB, is who would be left? Who’d be Leader of the Opposition? The work experience kid??

  13. Don Wigan said

    An amazing post.

    An observation from some past scrutineering is that a swing within an electorate, while not necessarily the same as a statewide swing, will be consistent throughout that electorate. Hence, despite variable booths a swing of 12% or whatever will be pretty even regardless of whether that little pocket is rock-solid Lab or Lib. So when the big day finally comes, you can take a pretty good guess on the extent of the electorate swing just on the booth where you’re working.

    If scrutineers are as canny as they were when Robert Ray used to do the numbers, I’d suggest they’d know if that seat was going to go as soon as the local subdivision count was completed, just on the percentage of the swing.

    If my electorate (Wannon) is any guide there are going to be a lot of shocks based on your projections. And you’re not the only one in disbelief. Labor has still to find a candidate for Wannon. That’s partly because it’s been made pretty clear that the candidate is on his/her own as far as funding goes. Wish I had a bit of money and was still in the party.

    Party bigwigs regard neighbouring Corangamite as gettable and have focused most of their attention on that. But on your figures, Wannon could be one of many bolters for Labor.

  14. THB said

    Well, who would be left? Cadman, Jensen, Tuckey… Oooh, I think the Liberal Party just stabbed themselves in the eyeballs.

  15. Stunkrat said

    I think Julie Bishop would still be there, although they’d have to remodel the Reps such that some of the governement members sit directly behind the Opposition front bench, which is all they’d need.

  16. Charlie said

    The survivors would be:
    Julie Bishop (Leader of the Opposition)
    Chris Pearce (Deputy Leader?)
    Sharman Stone
    Dennis Jensen
    Wilson Tuckey
    Judi Moylan
    Alex Hawke
    Mal Washer
    Patrick Secker
    Peter McFarlane
    Bruce Scott (Nat)
    John Forrest (Nat)

  17. THB said

    Ahhh, my dream of Wilson Tuckey as Treasurer is finally coming to fruition!

  18. Lomandra said

    Just imagine the effect of Alex Hawke with so little dilution. Enough to keep the Libs in Opposition for decades.

  19. jasmine_Anadyr said

    Thank you again possum, look how much joy your work has brought to our little lives today. Even if it doesn’t translate into a Canadian style destruction of the ‘Liberal’ party (as I hope it does) we’ll always have 18 July 2007 here with you.

  20. Gus said

    By multiplying the separate factors together, you are treating them as if they are mutually independent, and this is almost certainly not the case. Thus as you introduce each new factor (State, Rural location, Seat status), you inflate the size of the change by a degree which is dependent on the correlation between the two/three factors.

    As an exampe, take two perfectly correlated factors 1) above average weight in kg and 2) above average weight in lb. Lets say that people with above average weight in kg lose 4kg in a study of weight loss and those with below average weight lose none, thus the average weight change is 2kg and the weightings are 2 and 0. The same applies to above average change in lb, and you end up with weightings of 2 and 0. By your method, the average weight change is 4×2 = 8kg for those above average weight in both kg and pounds. Clearly not the case.

    Thanks for the site

  21. As a Wannon resident it is a lovely dream. But the difference between Australia and Canada is that Australian parties have much more persistent regional and social bases. In Canada there are larger swings and they are more even. Party votes can collapse to the low 20s and because the vote is evenly spread these levels of support translate into very few seats. British Columbia 2001 example NDP fell fell from 38 to 21% and they lost 37 out of 39 seats and the right won 77 of 79. The PC wipeout in Canada is a misleading example, the rightwing vote was split and Reform won many conservative seats. This won’t happen in Australia. Where is the safe seat problem for the Coalition: rural battlers or North Shore yuppies?

  22. Possum Comitatus said

    Gus, you’re exactly right – that’s a part of the feedback mechanism I was talking about.I’m actually modeling the problem at the moment and by tomorrow I should have a pretty realistic assessment of the numbers by seat, deflated by spatial distribution and correlation weight, and a few other bits and pieces that keep popping up.

  23. What goes around said

    Hmmm, including myself, that makes three Wannon residents on this site. Dare I start to hope that my safe Liberal seat is not so safe afterall??? Really don’t like David Hawker.🙂
    Thanks for the site and analysis Possum

  24. Fagin said

    Riverina fall to Labor? Out on the streets of Wagga the level of disgust at the government (especially the Nats) is palpable.

    Al Grassby will indeed be smiling in his grave!

    Bring it on!

    (Love your work Poss)

  25. carbonsink said

    Regardless of whether this is an accurate analysis, just the very idea of Brendan, Ruddock, the Mad Monk, Dolly, the Smirk, Bronnie and the Rodent himself all losing their seats has put a smile on my face.🙂

    Looking forward to your further analysis.

    (Richmond electorate resident)

  26. Stig said

    I can see the logic in the way you’ve worked it out, but as you mention, it’s hard to believe. If it looks too good to be true, it probably is. So yes, please work it over a bit more.

    I don’t know what specific seat polling data you have, but I think that what is available could help reality-check your calculations. Bennelong is a good case, and has had a couple of polls earlier in the year when the NSW swing was on – let me know if you need references & I’ll try to dig them out. This wouldn’t validate or negate your argument though, just reinforce the point that the swing will not be uniform. And if some marginals like Bennelong are only swinging 5%, imagine the size of the swing elsewhere!

    Also, this looks like the reverse of the swing in 1998, which of course resulted in Beazley losing the election with over 50% of the vote. If the swing is on in the areas that hurt the government the most, that could mean that this time THEY could lose the election, even if they (somehow) get a majority of votes? Now that would be very, very weird…

  27. Don Wigan said

    You never know, What goes around.

    Back in Sept 1999 I manned the Purnim booth for the ALP. At the time, the most interesting thing was listening to the Essendon-Carlton prelim final. Essendon were whitehot favourites for that game and the premiership, as was Kennett. I remember thinking that Labor had about as much chance of winning as Carlton. And lo, in one of those fluke results, Carlton won.

    The night just got better. Although a Kennett win still seemed most likely, as the night wore on it became less probable, till finally becoming a near deadlock, with the independents likely to hold the balance. Unbelievable!

    Interestingly, the polls got it pretty right then. They expected a higher Labor vote, but Kennett would hold onto the metro marginals where everyone expected it to be decided. They hadn’t done enough country and regional polling to realise how the coalition support had crashed outside the city. Possum’s figures suggest we may be seeing a similar country crash this time.

    Wannon could fall to Labor. If there was a very high-profile independent, able to secure Labor’s preferences (and of course finish at least second in the primaries), I’d be even more confident David Hawker would go.

  28. watt said

    Wow O.O

    If Labor wins with such a big mandate, would it be one of the biggest wins in Australia’s history? (sorry about the ignorance).

    If that happens the first few months of the new goverment should involve massive changes. It would be a mandate to take Australia in a new direction wouldn’t it!

    *cannot wait to see the modellic tomorrow.

  29. Chris said

    Hmmm! Interesting Whilst noting all the caveats:
    1. If seats fell as predicted on the raw figures; would the libs still outnumber the Nats? (lower house)
    2. Would the current mob still control the senate? or be able to block legislation with non ALP members? If yes what chance do we have of voting again in a double dissolution election within 18 months?

  30. Dev's Advocate said

    Like with the X-Files, “I want to believe”. And my maths is not great. But is it possibly ‘garbage in garbage out’ with Newspoll – even with pretty consistent results like we’ve been seeing? There’s still plenty of time for the confident anti-Libs answer to the pollster to change? What about that 20 or so percent who decide in the booth?

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