Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

Swings for Seats – National and State graphs

Posted by Possum Comitatus on July 20, 2007

I’ve broken the Mackerras Pendulum down into national and state based swing graphs.The way to read them is like before, choose a swing on the vertical axis, trace it across until it hits the swing line, and then trace down to the horizontal axis to find the seats that the ALP would win or lose given that swing.

These are thumbnails so just click on them to blow them up to full size.

National Swing NSW Swing Qld Swing

ns1.jpg nswswing12.jpg Qld Swing

Victorian Swing WA Swing SA Swing

vicswing11.jpg WA Swing SA Swing

For the remaining 9 seats in Tassie, NT and the ACT, I’ll give them as a table.

It shows the seat, the party that currently holds it, the State/Territory the seat is in and the swing needed for the ALP to win or lose it e.g a positive number represents the swing toward they ALP they need to take the seat, a negative number represents the swing away from the ALP they need to lose the seat.

Seat Party State ALP Swing
Solomon Lib NT

2.9

Bass Lib Tas

2.7

Braddon Lib Tas

1.2

Lyons ALP Tas

-3.7

Franklin ALP Tas

-7.6

Lingiari ALP NT

-7.7

Canberra ALP ACT

-10.1

Denison ALP Tas

-13.3

Fraser ALP ACT

-13.4

UPDATE:

The outstanding Simon Jackman has up a lovely graph with state by state swings and the seats involved.And it looks good too!

http://jackman.stanford.edu/blog/?p=281

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2 Responses to “Swings for Seats – National and State graphs”

  1. Adam said

    Your graph seems to suggest that Labor would win one seat in Vic with a 1% swing. This is incorrect. The weakest Liberal seat in Vic is McMillan on 5%.

  2. Possum Comitatus said

    So it did.I had 2 Bendigo’s floating around, one pretending it was a Coalition seat.

    All fixed – many thanks Adam.

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