Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

Look Ma, No Possum!

Posted by Possum Comitatus on July 21, 2007

Well not quite, but I’m heading out to the boonies for a holiday so there will be less Possum over the next 2-3 weeks, depending on the joys of rural internet access.There will be updates once or twice a week.

Apologies for the slack comment responses over the last few days, I’ve been flat out but I’ll get to them in big wads over the holiday.

14 Responses to “Look Ma, No Possum!”

  1. Lomandra said

    Hope you’re enjoying the serenity, Possum.

  2. Rx said

    Avagoodone, Poss. Enjoy your blogs.

  3. Mate said

    Mate, I know, I know!. The bush is great, Life is too short and of course you should have a holiday.

    But the real truth is, I need you to do your thing,

    The last few days have been huge.

    After all, its your fault I’m now addicted to your stuff. U put it out there, you gave me a taste….

    Now, I simply must have more🙂

    Please, I’ve got $50…

    POST!

  4. Alan H said

    Hi Possum,

    I am fascinated by the application of LP to your individual seat swing calculation. I have for many years been applying LP and IP to many ‘real world’ problems, like optimising concrete formulations, coal washing and blending, investment portfolios, minerals processing, milk products manufacture, stock feed, margarine etc etc.

    What are you using for the objective function?

    cheers

    Alan H

  5. Stig said

    As noted in Bryan’s blog, you’ve finally made the GG’s list of blogs that anonymous critics feel are misreading the polls ie: dare to contradict the GG’s wisdom.

    Well, congratulations for that!

  6. Fagin said

    You’re in The Big League now Possum!

    Keep stirring the bastards!

  7. Lomandra said

    Okay, that’s quite enough of that now, Young Possum. Tomorrow is three weeks, and frankly, no one needs more holiday than that.

    Now back to your desk and crunch those numbers.

    Please??

  8. bungs said

    Couldn’t agree more Lomandra. We need the Possum.
    Note the big tick for Possum on the latest Roy Morgan announcement.

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4194/

  9. Doug said

    Enough new polls in to do some more number crunching. Getting a favourable quote in the Morgan press release could do something to inflame the ongoing controversy over the roll of political bloggers that continues in some intemperate commentary by commenataors in the australian.

  10. Alan H said

    Yes, Possum, please come back soon. I want to talk to you about objective functions.

    Bungs, that’s actually my comment that Morgan is quoting, and I’m not too sure Possum would be ecstatic, since he disagreed with my quoted sentiments, in the nicest possible way, of course, and backed up his disagreement with some pretty reasonable arguments.

    cheers, Alan H

  11. Timbo said

    I don’t care about your statistical analysis, I just need my hit of hot rock babes.

  12. Possum Comitatus said

    Thanks all.

    I saw the Brad Norrington piece.I’m still not sure what he was getting at.

    Blogs have MSM critics? – who’d a thunk it!

    Political bloggers shit The Oz to tears? Tell us something we dont know.

    But there were also kinder words involved.

    What I felt strange though, was the comparisons between Australian blogs and what is happening in the US.The Australian blogs like Ozpol, Poll Bludger, Mumble and this one have no real counterparts in the US political blogspace.We aren’t polemical, we aren’t hysterical – if anything, we are generally low key in our various musings and focus on observable polling reality. I cant speak for anyone else, but I try first and foremost to add value to what’s already out there.To pull apart some of the rich data to try and tease out underlying voting behaviour that stands up to statistical scrutiny.

    Bryan at OzPol (who I always think of as “The Keeper of the Graphs” for some reason😉 )focuses on the data of politics as well, and one thing you could NEVER call Bryan is biased.I’ve never seen Bryan (or William at Poll Bludger, or Peter at Mumble) pluck anything out of their arse. If there are critics of us out there in the MSM over this sort of stuff, then they should really take their problem up with a couple of statistics and econometric textbooks.

    Alan,
    That would have to be close to the first time in human history that the phrase “I want to talk to you about objective functions” has ever been uttered😉

    Timbo,
    I’m glad you dig the punk rock chicks! Britt Black seems to be mighty popular around these parts if outgoing clicks are anything to go by.

  13. Possum Comitatus said

    Alan,
    For the linear programming objective function, I simply maximised my “X’s”, where each seat was an X variable that represented the swing in that seat.The complicated part was the formulation of the constraints that forced the individual seats to behave within the various Newspoll swings, as well retain as close to the Experimental TPP patterns as was possible.After the swings were calculated, they were just applied to the post-redistribution TPP results from the 2004 election to end up with the Pollycide 2 numbers.

  14. Alan H said

    Thanks for the reply, Possum. I will reread your thee pieces and figure out how it works.

    cheers,

    Alan H

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