Round up the Usual Rumours
Posted by Possum Comitatus on September 6, 2007
Rather than do another stats analysis of the polling that will only tell us the same thing it’s been telling us for months, I thought I might start off a new regular post that takes the completely opposite angle.
Since I started doing this blog, surprisingly large amounts of “stuff” end up in my email (and lately the Meebo IM thingy) that sits somewhere between tips, gossip and rumours.
So if you want to send me such stuff, feel free – but tell me if you don’t ever want them mentioned.
Over the last week, a number of these bits of stuff have come in from multiple people that have essentially said the same thing.
So make of these you will:
The ALP is becoming increasingly confident in NSW seats, to the point where even some of the more eternally pessimistic comrades have been spotted smiling on rare occasions
ALP polling and analysis in Boothby, Greenway, Macarthur, Dawson, Sturt and Goldstein of all places shows large swings in the making, to the point where a bit of campaign luck might be all that’s needed for any of these seats to fall.
These fold into another issue mentioned a couple of times, that ALP resources are being redeployed from NSW to Victoria and South Australia, which also ties into a tip about NSW Young Labor sending some kindy-comrades down south.[Update: the kindy-comrades are apparently just heading south of Sydney]
And finally, the ALP polling is suggesting an ALP TPP somewhere around the 56-57 mark once you account for “some of the wash in the system”.. although I’m not quite sure what that exactly means.
But that number is about what I also reckon the TPP is at, and is also compatible with the long run mean of the ALP TPP since Rudd became leader of 56.5% (the long run mean isn’t the average, it’s the long term mean level calculated by using the observable autoregressive nature of the polling series data).
And lastly, the vote is hardening up in roughly the same proportions as the TPP itself.
But I do have one question – what is going on in Hughes? Is the Minister for Gallipoli Theme Parks really going to retire or is something else afoot?