Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

Round up the Usual Rumours

Posted by Possum Comitatus on September 6, 2007

Rather than do another stats analysis of the polling that will only tell us the same thing it’s been telling us for months, I thought I might start off a new regular post that takes the completely opposite angle.

Since I started doing this blog, surprisingly large amounts of “stuff” end up in my email (and lately the Meebo IM thingy) that sits somewhere between tips, gossip and rumours.

So if you want to send me such stuff, feel free – but tell me if you don’t ever want them mentioned.

Over the last week, a number of these bits of stuff have come in from multiple people that have essentially said the same thing.

So make of these you will:

The ALP is becoming increasingly confident in NSW seats, to the point where even some of the more eternally pessimistic comrades have been spotted smiling on rare occasions

ALP polling and analysis in Boothby, Greenway, Macarthur, Dawson, Sturt and Goldstein of all places shows large swings in the making, to the point where a bit of campaign luck might be all that’s needed for any of these seats to fall.

These fold into another issue mentioned a couple of times, that ALP resources are being redeployed from NSW to Victoria and South Australia, which also ties into a tip about NSW Young Labor sending some kindy-comrades down south.[Update: the kindy-comrades are apparently just heading south of Sydney]

And finally, the ALP polling is suggesting an ALP TPP somewhere around the 56-57 mark once you account for “some of the wash in the system”.. although I’m not quite sure what that exactly means.

But that number is about what I also reckon the TPP is at, and is also compatible with the long run mean of the ALP TPP since Rudd became leader of 56.5% (the long run mean isn’t the average, it’s the long term mean level calculated by using the observable autoregressive nature of the polling series data).

And lastly, the vote is hardening up in roughly the same proportions as the TPP itself.

But I do have one question – what is going on in Hughes? Is the Minister for Gallipoli Theme Parks really going to retire or is something else afoot?

Oh, and Bryan over OzPolitics has some goss on the election date and William over at Poll Bludger breaks out the crystal ball on the starters gun as well.

16 Responses to “Round up the Usual Rumours”

  1. Lord D said

    Sounds pretty good to me. Thanks Possum.

  2. Stunkrat said

    Mmmmmmmmmm. Sturt.

  3. Heretic said

    The odds for Hughes on Portlandbet show something is up, firmed for the ALP at $2.65.

  4. Timbo said

    Any word on Page?
    Last I heard it was looking good for the ALP

  5. Greg said

    I live in Macarthur, and I may be the eternal optimist but I have felt for some time that it has a chance of going to the ALP – 11% margin and all. Post Workchoices Pat Farmer has lost a lot of his shine and is constantly annihilated in the local media. He is now seen as just another politician and I think that the celebrity factor that increased his personal vote in the last 2 elections may now have washed through. Also, the last two elections have seen a poor quality candidate stand for the ALP, with this election seeing a local small businessman and tradesman as the candidate, certainly sure to go down well with the large amount of tradies and contractors who live in the seat, and counter the anti-union rhetoric.

  6. Greensborough Growler said

    My goodness, if the Brighton Blondes(Goldstein) are turning on to Rudd, you know his message is cutting through.

    What is going on!

  7. Evan said

    I used to live in Brighton (Goldstein) before fleeing to Grayndler in NSW.

    I’ve gotta say that if the Braight’n AB Fab lot are turning, then the Libs are well and truly screwed. Goldstein used to be about as blue ribbon as you could get: Full of doctors, lawyers, Captains of Industry, their first, second and third wives and assorted snotty offspring. Church Street had more glitz that St Moritz, and a shitload more parked Mercs.

    As for Grayndler, it’s a case of spot-the-Lib in Albanese land. They’ve been extinct here for years.

  8. Dawson does deserve more attention. Labor almost won it in 1990 and I would presume on state figures it would be Labor, of the state seats in it Mackay always labor and Whitsunday only lost once since 1989.

  9. bmwofoz said

    I know Goldstein very well, Goldstein is a little more than Bright, in 1982 the state seat of Sandringham went to the ALP, while the State seat of Bentleigh has a history of ALP wins.

    If people vote has they did in the 2002 state poll this seat could be close, the suburbs of Bentleigh, McKinnon, Ormond have many middle class families, whom will be attracted to Rudd’s positive campaign, good candidate and lets remember Howard has never been popular in Victoria.

    The sandbelt suburbs of Melbourne can swing, and while normally this is a Liberal seat, but for the polls to be right seats like Goldstein need to swing.

  10. Greensborough Growler said

    By golly,

    If those residents of Goldstein want to swing, who am I to stop them.

    But, I can just see all those disenchanted Labor voting MILFs chanting, “When do we want tennis lessons?”

    “Between 10 and 12.30 when the kids are at creche or school”.

    Really has a ring to it.

  11. canberra boy said

    For the last few months the Canberra bureaucracy has been providing briefs to support Ministerial campaigning in marginal seats – for example, details on what the Government has done in each seat. These have been both Coalition-held and Labor-held seats.

    In the last few days two things have happened. First, requests have been made for large amounts of information by 14 Sep in case the election is called after the next sitting week (in which case, under the caretaker conventions, the Govt can’t obtain many kinds of briefing). Second, any interest in Labor-held seats has been abandoned and the focus now encompasses Coalition seats in NSW or Qld on margins of up to 10 or 11% as well as WA seats for the first time. Strikes me they are trying to limit the size of the rout. As for the date, the ministerial staff making the requests don’t have any greater insight than you or I do, but are merely preparing in case the PM acts the weekend after next.

  12. canberra boy said

    Growler, I assume you’re not trying to appeal to the female vote by using the terminology ‘MILF’ here. You’re not, by any chance, a tennis coach are you?

  13. Greensborough Growler said

    I chase them till they are too tired to say yes and then give up.

  14. steve said

    Funniest proof that the Libs are having a hard time in Gold Coast seats and would rather send Pork to Adelaide.

    http://www.goldcoast.com.au/article/2007/09/07/2496_gold-coast-news.html

  15. Doug said

    Note Morgan Poll out – Face to Face

    TPP Alp; 60 Coalition 40

  16. Possum Comitatus said

    CB,
    what you say there is perfectly compatible with what I’ve been told about the Qld problems and also gells with a few other things – Howard is running a firewall strategy…. he has to be.But his wall is too deep (3 to 10-12% margins) and the Libs resources are too shallow in dollar terms to defend that many seats.

    Howard has conceded the election.

    He must have, or you wouldnt run this strategy.Crosby/Textor arent stupid, they’d know how firewall strategies have played out in the US.Its what you do not to win an election, but to save your party.

    Steve,
    I’m sure that’ll play out well with those parochial Gold Coasters😉

    Ta Doug for the Morgan.

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