Of Sydney Lines and Firewalls
Posted by Possum Comitatus on September 14, 2007
Over at The Terror, there’s an interesting article that’s well worth a read.
Remembering back to last week when we blended together the Crosby Textor research with information about what’s happening on the ground around the country – the obvious conclusion was the existence of a Coalition firewall strategy. Today, the Tele helps us verify that the firewall is alive and well in NSW.
The Daily Telegraph can reveal:
LABOR polling in keymarginals last month was so positive for the ALP that it was redone, only to return the same results;
THE Liberals have started polling the blue-ribbon seat of North Sydney because of fears Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey could fall; and
SEATS with margins of up to 10 per cent have been identified by the Liberals as vulnerable.
This we already knew. We identified the 10% margin as the rough firewall baseline in ‘Capitulation’, we pointed out that the ALP believed they had most of the marginals in the bag and that they were off fox hunting in the safe seats.
Months ago we identified NSW as the State with the most dangerous swings in the safe government seats in our ‘Pollycide‘ analysis.
And back in the beginning of July we identified about 40 seats in play that could be now categorised as marginal for the Coalition in ‘Margin of Terror‘. That seat number was subsequently verified in late August in The Oz.
The article further states:
Liberal Party officials also confirmed they have abandoned plans to target Labor-held seats – to concentrate on protecting sitting members.
They have revealed the level of their concern over Mr Rudd’s growing popularity in western Sydney, with plans to draw a “Sydney Line” as a last bulwark of defence in their national campaign.
“The Sydney Line” eh?
I guess its tough titties then for the members for Page, Cowper, Paterson and Macquarie. Rome will not be sending reinforcements to defend the fringes of the empire, despite weak platitudes to the contrary. If you can’t even see Sydney, you can’t be in any “Sydney Line”…..which is probably fair enough. With the possible exception of Cowper, those seats are cactus for the Coalition anyway.
Eden-Monaro will of course become the capital of pork; it’s mythical (and undeserved) status as the nations bellwether seat guarantees that the denizens of EM will need to reinforce their umbrellas to protect themselves from the porcine falling from the heavens.
Macarthur, Greenway, Dobell, Robertson and Hughes – if push comes to shove, you’re expendable. That’s what happens when you make up the wall – you’re the first to crumble as the call for retreat sounds.I’m sure the esteemed members are quite relaxed and comfortable about it all.
Parramatta is written off as a possible Liberal gain, even though it’s notionally Liberal after the redistribution and Lindsay is apparently just about to be written off by the Libs as well, so they don’t even make it into the mix to begin with.
But not to fear dear representatives of Cook, Wentworth, Warringah, Mackellar, Berowra, Mitchell, Bennelong, Bradfield and North Sydney – The Team still loves ya.
Although the NSW firewall may well resemble a doughnut by the time the electorate is finished putting pencil to ballot, with Bennelong and Wentworth the possible holes in the middle.
This isnt really related, but so worth a squiz at.Its a piece of ALP advertising that will be extremely effective in Qld north of Brisbane.Mexicans might not get the power of it, but as a Qlder, it’s powerful stuff.The tranquil dusk fishing setting, the lifestyle connotations, the juxtaposition of the way Qld always has been vs. what it will become… it’s a highly intelligent piece of political advertising that confronts the most sacred lifestyle dogmas of Qld’rs north of Brisbane everywhere.