A Nexus Poll.
Posted by Possum Comitatus on September 17, 2007
A company called Nexus Research has released a poll of Melbourne and Sydney voters over HERE:
It says the usual type of stuff that has been falling out of the polls since February.ALP primary on 51% and Lib primary on 36% etc etc. It’s amazing how remarkable figures like these all become so ho hum after a while.
But what is really interesting about this poll (deserving of a standing ovation for Nexus Research from pollyjunkies across the land) is the inclusion of an interactive portal through which poll tragics everywhere can analyse the polling results from both this poll and a near identical poll taken in September 2004.
Of key interest to me with this polling was the breakdown in voting intention by occupation status. The Crosby Textor Oztrack 33 research indicated that there was a national 14.5% swing against the Libs on the primary vote by part time workers and an 18.3% swing to the ALP on TPP by part time workers back in June.
This Nexus poll not only suggests similarly large movements (the first time we can get verification of OzTracks part-time worker swing), but it also tells us that in Sydney and Melbourne at least, these swings that were apparent nationally in June are still apparent in September.
Back in September 2004, 50% of part time workers surveyed stated that they would vote for the Liberal Party and 35% stated they would vote for the ALP. Yet in September 2007, only 29% of part time workers stated they would vote for the Liberal Party while the ALP vote from part time workers jumped to 53%. These are primary vote figures.
This might turn into the missing demographic link in the polls, and if the ABS would pull their finger out and release the 2006 Census data on occupational status, we could indeed scare the seven shades of shite out of sitting government members everywhere by looking at the proportion of their electorates that are part time workers.
But alas, we’ll have to wait a little longer to have that fun.
Another thing that keeps popping up lately is the notion of the dreaded “soft vote”. The problem I have with these soft vote nostrums by various commentators is that they aren’t turning up in the data. Oztrack 33 back in June had the soft vote equal for each party on 5%.I’m hearing from both sides in all sorts of seats that voter support isn’t soft – but none the less the dreaded “soft voter” is the cliché you just cant leave home without.
“The voters are waiting for Howard with nerf bats.”