Newspolls for all!
Posted by Possum Comitatus on September 21, 2007
There is so much data here that rather than give a riding commentary, I thought that I’d just present the data first and do the analysis in subsequent posts. There are a few very interesting things that have already popped up out of the data – mostly reinforcing the view that the Coalition Firewall strategy has been playing out and they’ve been shoring up the base….. but we’ll get to that later.Suffice to say, the stuff floating around on this polling breakdown in the Oz and on SkyNews today is more twaddlish than usual – but we’ll round up those rogues later.For now, it’s on with the show.
Firstly, lets do the marginal seats, the safe government seats and the safe ALP seats:
These results give us the following swings from the 2004 Election:
Next, we’ll move on to the demographic and State breakdown. All the swings are the difference between the third quarter Newspoll results and the 2004 Election results. On the demographic breakdowns, the swing represents the difference between the third quarter Newspoll results and the best Newspoll estimate of the 2004 election results.
Lots here to chew through, and chew through it we will.
As something to ponder, the state swings point to around a 43 seat ALP gain.
You can plug these numbers into Antony Greens new spiffy calculator .
Although he only allows for swings of up to 10% ,which plays around with Victoria a bit.Ordinarily you’d think that sized swing would be enough!
Bryan over at OzPol also squeezes the data