Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

Groundhog Day

Posted by Possum Comitatus on October 1, 2007

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 Pick a date, any date since January 2007.The best time for John Howard to have called an election was the week before that date. So Howard tries just one more advertising campaign, one more porkbarrel, one more angle of attack identified by focus group analysis to try and claw back a couple of points. A few points toward him closes the gap between the two parties and generates much needed momentum, allowing him to call the election – but that momentum never arrives. The slight hint of polling movement fails to materialise into a vote shift. The polls return to their long run behaviour of Coalition annihilation.

The advertising didn’t work, the porkbarrel created no electoral premium, the angle of attack on Labor failed to change voters minds. The best time to have called an election was the previous week.

So Howard tries just one more advertising campaign, one more porkbarrel, one more angle of attack identified by focus group analysis to try and claw back a couple of points………

Which is why the competing narratives of the government, firstly “Polls will narrow late in the campaign” and secondly, “The government can’t call an election as the polls are too wide” don’t exactly make for a good strategy. The plan seems to be to make one group move toward the government before the campaign, allowing the government to actually call the campaign itself, and then peel another group from Labor during the campaign.

9 months of action hasn’t achieved the former, but the Coalition plans to do it twice.

In 2 months?

With a targeted plan?

It sounds like a cover for not knowing what to do, which would explain the never ending loop of trying one more advertising campaign, one more porkbarrel, one more angle of attack identified by focus group analysis to try and claw back a couple of points………

It’s Groundhog Day in the circular city.

 

 

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65 Responses to “Groundhog Day”

  1. disenfranchised Gippslander said

    Paul Keating said it all back in 1993 “They don’t have to love us, as long as they vote for us”- I don’t reckon many love Howard, but I don’t think he has nearly as big a target for a fear campaign as Keating had in GST! A real issue stands up much better than the sniggering behind the shelter sheds rubbish that JWH and his cronies have been running. Time for the electorate to get out its baseball bats!

  2. Leinad said

    Wow, it’s been pointed out to infinity now, but _man_ that’s some stable polling. The ALP’s only jitters are occasional leaps to stratospheric wipeout figures, 60-40, 57-43 etc. Howard’s electoral-date delaying is really beginning to take on delusions of Fuhrerbunker proportions. At this point the rational course of action would appear to be to call the bloody thing, lay out some policies and bribes, see how soft Labor’s vote really is. But that course is apparently off the table as ‘suicidal’, yet the Micawber option hasn’t worked all year, and if anything has further alienated the electorate.

  3. dany le roux said

    The term “Lying Rodent” predates its use by Sen. Brandis and was originally applied (in the US of course) to any groundhog which failed to predict the severity of the last six weeks of winter.

    It seems like JWH has a similar problem with approximately the next six weeks so it is appropiate he be compared with this creature.

  4. Kymbos said

    Wouldn’t there be some traction for Rudd to announce a move to fixed terms, right about now?

  5. Bushfire Bill said

    Howard is not failing to call the election because there is so much more pork to hand out to his cronies.

    This includes the “information” ad campaign. It doesn’t matter if it fails. The moolah will have been paid out – at full freight – just in time for the discounts to the party to arrive, come the campaign. The cronies are minting money and it’s all coming from our taxes… pissed up against the wall.

    He still needs a parliamentary session to lock in some legislation (nuclear waste disposal, anybody?) that will bind a future Labor government or force it to pay millions, if not billions in reparations to the cronies. forget nuclear power. That’s a trojan horse. The aim is to get the ancilliary industries up and running. The rest is diversion (which many are falling for by arguing about the siting of power plants).

    The aim is not to win the election. That might be a bonus, but it’s not of paramount importance. The aim is to shovel out as much money as possible into the hands of urgers, sycophants, business cronies, advertising gurus and suchlike. It will all be repaid whether or not the Libs win… after the election… and in private, in the form of jobs for the boys, consultancies, positions on various boards, discounts to the party on election campaign ads, donations to the party and backdoor deposits to Swiss bank accounts.

    The aim isn’t to grease the palms after the election. They’re already being greased, and plenty. What we are seeing is one of the biggest heists in Australian history, right in front of our noses.

  6. Possum Comitatus said

    That’s funny danny.

    Leinad, that ALP primary vote polling is rock solid.It hasnt moved a jot.The TPP has wandered around a bit, but that’s just mostly the minor party vote variation from poll to poll playing silly buggers with the calculated preference volumes.

    Gipps, “Boo! Union bosses!” doesnt quite stack up to ‘Fightback!’ as ammo for a scare campaign.Nothing has worked, nothing has looked like working for the Coalition.Some of press gallery are a little too close to the action believing that the events that interest them actually matter a brass razoo out in puntersville. Rudds tax gaffe, the last parliament sitting and the like – it didnt matter. It resonated like a butterfly fart under a blanket beyond the insiders circle.What will resonate though is the 20 second clips the punters will see this week on the nightly news of Rudd talking about fixing hospitals, surrounded by nurses and sick people.And this sort of reflects how the two parties are playing out in the electorate – when Howard tried it with the Mersey Hospital, those who didnt think Election Pork straight away looked at it as either “Hospital in Tassie – big deal”, or “The Feds buying a hospital in Tassie, just the one – what about the rest?”.

    The inertia is running against Howard anyway, but his campaign has been useless.Poorly framed and poorly thought out to the point where it simply reinforces the negatives about his government.It’s like the ALP is actually running the Coalitions campaign strategy.

  7. Possum Comitatus said

    BB, it’s a worry, because that’s what it looks like.

    The only argument I have against it is that such a thing would actually take a level of organisational skill that the Liberals havent managed to demonstrate for years.

  8. Bushfire Bill said

    Possum, it doesn’t take any organisational skills to shovel money out the door.

    I kept asking myself why would they pursue the ad campaign when it is demonstrably, incontrovertibly failing, backfiring… even in the eyes of their own political analysts and marketing types.

    The only plausible reason is that it’s not the campaign they want to win. IT’S THE MONEY they dish out in the meantime.

    What else is going on behind closed doors? Rumours of a nuclear waste disposal deal stitched up. It’s not nuclear power. IT’S THE MONEY… money from Howard’s cronies getting the waste disposal licenses, all stitched up so that Rudd can’t untangle it.

    $30 billion on fighter jets that the Air Force doesn’t want? With another few billion on replacement F-18 “Super Hornets” that don’t work… all because the minister has exercised his override powers? That ought to be worth a few trips and a couple of comfy stays in 5-star hotels (especially when they’re out of office and nobody’s watching).

    Name any of the big ticket items of the past year, especially the ones that don’t make any sense at all… and somewhere in there you’ll see a crony’s greasy hand extended.

    Optus broadband? A billion dollars? Do we see that being spruiked on tele? No way! IT’S THE MONEY.

    The money is gone, never to be refunded, or probably even traced. Pissed up against a wall. The cheque book is thrown in the garbage.

    In one, small way it’s comforting. This proves pretty-well beyond doubt they’ve given up even trying to win. They don’t care that the people want the election now. Everything they’re doing can be explained by a lack of concern as to whether they win the election or not. They don’t care whether we hate them for their toying with dates, or for the crummy ads, or for their lies. IT’S THE MONEY they care about, for their retirements.

    It’s the biggest heist in Australian history.

  9. 50_sigmas said

    You’re onto something about the nuclear waste disposal/storage facility.

    The money is in the licenses to transport the stuff.

  10. dany le roux said

    Perhaps someone should start a mega$/day inventory blog of pork handed out contingent on the Rodent winning and another on actual pork handed out in real time.
    Would Mr Rudd simply say “me too” to all of it to avoid contention?

  11. nobby said

    i’m sick of all this, i call on mr, rudd to announce the election date immediately.

  12. I think some of the reason for the stability of the polls might be seen in the readers’ poll in the Australian. Far and away the biggest influence on how people (who respond to the poll) will vote is “Basic Ideology (52%). This includes not just Liberal voters who read the GG but voters in Labor electorates too. Nothing in that case would change the outcome of the election except a change of ideology. But Howard can’t backflip on something as big as ideology – without looking weak or insincere and losing votes – and everything that he is doing, all the advertising and porkbarrelling, is more reinforcement of the same basic ideology. Only Costello could throw in a credible ideologically shifted circuit breaker – you know, the new-look, fresher, softer, “reaching-out-to-the-marginalised”, “one-day-I’ll-be-PM-won’t-I” Costello?.

    That’s too late too.

  13. Adrian said

    Hi Possum, athough it almost doesn’t need to be said, I’ll say it anyway — “love your work.”

    However, I do have a question. Why does your primary vote graph have a different scale than the 2PP one? I’m happy enough for them to have a different origin, but the different scale is a bit misleading. When I first read this article it seemed that the Newspoll primary results were far more stable then the 2PP ones. Now I see that the primary vote graph looks more stable because each Y axis tick represents 4%, not 2%. That’s a bit of a shame actually — I was positing all sorts of hypothesis about why it mibht be so.

  14. Avidwatcher said

    Liberals this year have been so delusional in every question time.. Dorothy Dixers starting with the phrase ‘My question is to the world’s greatest treasurer’ etc etc. It has shades of Keating govt in the final throws of 1995/96. Unable to grasp that people have moved on. Abbott today still banging on that he doesn’t believe that Australians will throw a ‘good’ govt out for an inexperienced opposition.

    IMO Howard thinks that the polls are bad but unable to come to terms with the idea of actually losing govt. They always win.. but just in case Howard has taken out a bit of self integrity insurance for himself.

    The “team” strategy of Costello is JWH way of disowning any responsibility for any election loss. JWH will write his memoirs as; “The Australian public reject Peter Costello as the next prime minister. They voted me in 4 times but this time they weren’t comfortable with Peter…” Howard slippery as ever and only interested in himself.

  15. steve said

    This from the Brisbane Times about Queensland electorates.
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/vampire-may-kill-off-qld-libs/2007/10/02/1191091070382.html

  16. stevet said

    Possum,

    You are so right about your take on the press gallery insiders’ psyche. I have read people like Shanahan and Milne carrying on about what a great week the Coalition had and how bad and feral Rudd looked on TV in question time and thought to myself, no you guys are really out of touch with reality.

    First of all, I thought Rudd came out of it all looking quite good. If he lost his temper like that all of the time it wouldn’t be good, but a bit of fire in the belly every now and again, especially when the government is carrying on like a pack of hyaenas goes down pretty good in voterland. And anyway, I thought his comments about Costello’s lack of guts and general behaviour will resonate pretty well.

    And as I have said before, the two things the punters care about the most are “don’t worry, I’ll keep your interest rates down” and Workchoices. These are two major breaches of trust within the electorate the same way as “L-A-W law taxcuts” were seen as for Keating. And it is impossible to undo these sorts of things once they have been done.

    Let’s get the annihilation over and done with.

  17. Persse said

    Okay – thinking about how the election will pan out in seat numbers, I can imagine big swings to the ALP in ALP seats. I can see big swings to the ALP in Liberal seats – without necessarily changing to the ALP. I can see enough marginals putting Rudd Labor over the line in terms of seats, but I can’t see the sorts of numbers falling as suggested by the various pendulum predictors. Is it a question of needing to get actual polling in a given electorate to determine the breakdown?

  18. steve said

    Whatever the figures were before today for the coalition – they are about to get worse with the adoption of Healthchoices.

    http://dailyflute.com/?p=1278

  19. EconoMan said

    Possum, I have another nomination for Crimes against Psephology. Stand up Terry McCrann

    It’s almost worse than Pearson, because he’s trying to deal with MoE seriously, whereas Pearson is just a conservative hack trying to rally the base.

  20. EconoMan said

    Apologies, I tried to hyperlink it with [a href=…] but it didn’t seem to work (yes I used the less than / greater than)

    http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22515356-36281,00.html

  21. stevet said

    Persse,

    There is plenty of polling being done on a seat by seat basis, but it is being done by the major parties in their private polling. But, if you want an idea of what it is like, just remember that Howard hasn’t called the election yet, and as George Megalogenis said on the Insiders on Sunday, he hasn’t called it yet because he knows he wouldn’t win.

  22. Philip said

    I second the nomination of Terry McCrann.

    It’s a desperate attempt to make the polls sound good (well not so bad) for the Coalition.

    At least he’s clear on his bias however:

    [quote]
    “The good — OK, will you believe, hopeful — news is that if Labor’s support now ‘really is’ only 53 per cent; a campaign could cut it enough to keep the government in power.”
    [/quote]

  23. laughoutloud said

    The real ‘insiders’ know it is just terrible for the government, on a seat by seat basis, as well as overall. We will be saying ‘goodbye’ to more than just kackie jelly if the polls hold. ‘Sinks to ground in supplication’.

  24. Bushfire Bill said

    Now, I’m no psephologist, but I would have thought that 20 polls in a row that shw Labor’s core 2PP vote is 55% would kinda… sorta… cancel out the possibility that they’re ALL at the high end, and Labor’s vote is really on 52%.

    Terry McRann… this is your nightmare.

  25. Kramer said

    Joe Hockey being torn apart here by Mr O’Brien. It really is quite laughable. He began by attacking the Australia@Work report as a blatant piece of union propaganda and then refused to acknowledge that the report was credible because 50% of funding was from the government itself.

    Kerry then begins berating him with various other statistics and all Hockey can do is stress that he wants “Australians to have higher wages” and resolutely defends Peter Hendy.

  26. Greensborough Growler said

    Krame,

    It’s a vision of a man who is just about to fund several swimming pools for people he does not know.

  27. Corangamite Flyer said

    Oh there are many confident Ruddites glowing like now victorious Geelong supporters. Remember the old saying about counting Chickens. As many cautious observers have noted, there will be good swings in safe Labor seats, there will be swings amoungst Doctors wives that don’t matter. But, my friends many many people in key seats are not screaming about workchoices, they don’t care about foreign policy, they have always been scared, and cautious about change. Like with most Australian referendums, “if it aint broke, don’t fix it”, is a great maxim, middle Australia live their life by. Despite the cries of the overthinking commentators, most Australians are “relaxed and comfortable”, change of any sort, when push comes to shove, may up set this, Howard is still very very safe!

  28. Charles said

    Your right possum this is addictive.

    I’ve redone the figures, this time I have ignored the newspoll marginal and safe seat results. Instead I have worked out what percentage of liberal votes would have to change to get the state swing and then distributed the swing according to the number of liberal votes in the seat.

    I am also now using the ABC 2007 swing values.

    Doing this I get:

    31 liberal
    8 National
    108 ALP

    Kooyong and Wannon still go to the ALP, Warringah stays in the hands of the LIB’s.

    So somewhere in the Newspoll safe seat data is a swing that is greater in safe liberal seats than is explained by a fixed percentage of liberal voters changing votes.

  29. Possum Comitatus said

    Adrian at 13,
    The explanation for why the scales are different in the ALP graphs is simple; I’m a lazy bugger, and the scales were what my stats program spat out😉

    Sorry about that – it’s a bad habit of mine that I can’t seem to break.

    Persse at 17
    In the last 2 elections, the swings in the safe seats of the party that gained the overall swing (the Coalition) were smaller than the national swing. This time the Newspoll data suggests that will again be the case (except this time for the ALP).So I’m not a big believer in the swings will all happen in the ALP seats theory as the data and the history of the data doesn’t suggest it. Similarly, the last two elections showed that the swings were bigger in the safe seats of the party that had the swing against it, and Newspoll is showing this again to be the case.

    So what we have is the Coalition looking to repeat the history of the last two elections in terms of the composition of the swing, but this time the swing is against it and much much larger to boot. Seats will topple like dominoes unless something magical happens.In fact, for less than 30 seats to topple would actually defy history of both the polling results in the 6 month period leading up to the last 5 elections, and the last two election results in terms of the nature of the composition of the swing (that could be more than two, that’s just as far back as I looked).

    On Tezza Mcrann, his silliness is only a couple of paragraphs – a minor misdemeanour rather than a Crime Against Psephology. Sure he was a goose, but I think I’ll keep the Crimes series for the big felons rather than the small time tools.

    The probability of the true value of the polls having the ALP on 53% is roughly less than 0.0001% (back of the envelope calculation, but it’s probably a lot less than that) unless the ALP has had a slump in their true vote value over the last month (of which there is zero evidence to support such a claim).

    Corangamite Flyer at 27.

    There will be good swings in safe ALP seats, but for those swings to be larger than than what occurs in marginal or safe government seats would defy basic probability theory and the observable reality of recent electoral history. The Coalition should think themselves lucky they are only swinging 1.3 times the average swing in their safe seats – recent history suggests that such a swing ratio is actually rather low. To say that Howard is safe is to claim that tens of thousands of people have been consistently telling lies to pollsters over the last 9 months in highly consistent proportions. Good luck with that!🙂

    Charles, thanks. And to think that the swing in the safe Coalition seats in the Newspoll data is actually less than what it proportionally has been against the safe seats of the party having the swing against it over the last 2 elections.

    There’d be virtually none of them left if those safe seats went the 1.7 to 1.8 times the national swing as the last two elections went. The data is truly amazing.

  30. Charles said

    Howard Hater Says:

    Labor will be doing well to get 80 seats:

    That only pushes the swing labors way as far as things are now pushed towards the Liberals. A sound principle to follow but it is not what the polls are saying. Your predicting a narrowing.

  31. Peter Schmidt said

    My dear Possum Comitatus,
    I have enjoyed your work since I discovered the site some weeks ago. As a rusted on Labor supporter, it gives me great delight to observe the coming storm and I have enjoyed your education of people like myself who are not expert in poll analysis but might have just accepted what the MSM stated. So that when I read Pearson’s article last week I could hardly believe that it was printed. Where does the man live? He is somewhere in the past, with the Tridentine Mass and the few remaining priests who have a smattering of Latin.
    The polls seem to indicate a tectonic shift; even I observe Liberal voters favouring the ALP for the first time….a shift in Corio! He is still climbing Everest but the Rudd orogeny appears to be upon us.
    I have only met the Posse Comitatus once years ago, in the back blocks of Montana where a Liberal voting friend of mine had them rudely honking their bus’ horn at 9.00am on a Sunday morning waiting to take the family to church!! The non church going population was suspect and so UnAmerican. Much prefer the Australian type even if each night they thump around on our roof! The brushies!
    Thankyou for blog .
    August Peters

  32. canberra boy said

    Yes it is indeed groundhog day every day that John Howard wakes up. The polls must be annoying enough, but just think about the way Hyacinth must be badgering him: “John, dear, I know you said that you’d hold the election by early December, but it would be so nice to have just one more Christmas and New Year at Kirribilli…” I bet she says it every day. It must be driving him nuts.

  33. Corangamite Flyer said

    Possum at 29

    People have not been telling lies to Pollsters, so much as not being usefully engaged by pollsters. As we remember 1999, when the pollsters were spectacularly wrong in predicting a landslide Kennett win. I would argue that the non ABC, nonbroadsheet sector of the community are today heavily engaged in work and family and while an election is not yet called are not yet focusing on election issues. The only figures worth following in polls at the moment are the undecided, and the I don’t care. As the bulk of voters, have a job, have a house, and have holidays to look forward to, JWH and co, need only convince people in the final 4 weeks, that by changing the chairman, they put all that at risk.

    People need a stronger argument than “give the new bloke ago”. Rudd & Co offer only tinkered with differences, that when people go to ACTUALLY decide, will give people little reason to risk what they have now.

  34. sam from sunshine said

    Corangamite Flyer

    If you truly believe what you say then take all your money from the bank, cash in your super and bet on the LIBS to win. At the current bookie odds you will clean up.

    The alternative position is you will go bust and rely on the Age Pension.

  35. Neil Cammack said

    Corangamite Flyer #27 – ‘Despite the cries of the overthinking commentators…’

    Mate, I’m with you all the way. Underthinking beats overthinking any day. Enough underthinking and your lot will be a shoo-in.

  36. Don Wigan said

    I don’t think the 1999 Vic election helps your case, Corangamite Flyer. From memory, one poll got it pretty right. The others had noted a swing to the ALP. Where they went wrong was that their qualitative polling suggested that Kennett would hold on to all but one or two of the metro marginals. Hence there was an assumption that Labor would only gain a couple of seats despite a better overall vote. Maybe a repeat of 1996.

    What they hadn’t counted on was the total collapse of the coalition vote in country and regional centres. They were spot on with their metro marginal predictions. Kennett held all but two. Hence it showed the shortcomings of only relying on one section, even if this was where the great majority of marginal seats were.

    I’d imagine that pollsters have taken this much more into account in subsequent polling. It helps explain Possum’s interest and interpretation of the Newspoll demographic breakdown. And why he’s making such an issue of the big fall in coalition voting intentions in safe seats.

    If you want to use Vic 1999 as an example, Howard is in far worse trouble than Kennett because the polling suggests he’s not holding his marginals to the extent thst Kennett was.

  37. fred said

    Yoo hoo bushfire Bill you there mate?
    I’m interested in some hard data about this:
    “He still needs a parliamentary session to lock in some legislation (nuclear waste disposal, anybody?) that will bind a future Labor government or force it to pay millions, if not billions in reparations to the cronies. forget nuclear power. That’s a trojan horse. The aim is to get the ancilliary industries up and running. The rest is diversion (which many are falling for by arguing about the siting of power plants).”
    Got any links? Media reports whatever?
    Anybody?
    Please.

  38. Bushfire Bill said

    Freddy… no data, no links or reports. But if Dennis Shanahan and Glen Milne can make up conspiracy theories, why can’t I?

    But it stands to reason. Consider the facts:

    1. We’re told 15-25 years to get the first nuke power station up and running.

    2. We must, MUST have ancilliary industries in place well before this happens… uranium enrichment and waste disposal (add transport too, of both fuel and waste).

    3. The people who set them up are not going to be outlaying investment dollars in the hope that the Libs get back in again in time for kick-off of power generation, or that Labor changes its mind or that the voting mob in Rockhampton (or wherever) change their minds about having a power plant in their backyards. The proprietors of these ancilliary industries will want to start earning income immediately.

    4. Ergo, they will begin “leasing” enriched Australian uranium to overseas power corporations. Part of any lease agreement will be that the waste HAS to come back to Australia for “security” reasons (for example) and be disposed of here. This will not be “other people’s waste”. It will technically be ours, as it was only leased.

    5. If it gets too hard (and it will) to get an actual generator up and running, then there will still be a buck to be made from the ancilliary industries. Eventually the time will come when hands are thrown up in the air and we all realise it was never going to happen, given the political fallout from the Nimbys (another case in point: the third Sydney airport at Badgery’s Creek… never happened, but someone made a lot of money out of the sale of the land when it was cancelled). I suggest it is so unlikely that we’ll ever get nuke power stations that this is already accepted, or close to accepted by Those Who Govern, and it is now a case of pure jobs for the boys in waste and enrichment (and probably always has been). There’s enough money in those two industries to make many people millionaires, hundreds of times over. Those who make it possible for these riches to accumulate – by passing legislation – will themselves expect to get rich from the kickbacks (case in point: trading with the enemy, i.e. AWB and certain shareholders who happen to be senior government politicians).

    So many critics of nuclear power in Australia get bogged down in the Trojan Horse of actual nuke power stations. It’s like the Nigerian scam in a way: we invest our intellectual capital in arguing against nuclear power stations. We think it’s a surefire loser for the government. An easy vote winner for Labor. The truth is there’s a lot more money to be made from the nuclear industry before we even begin to generate enough to power a single light bulb. The scammers win again.

    Same with the info ad campaign: don’t waste precious brain cells worrying why the government persists with a losing campaign. Their mates in the media get the money. THAT’S the point. Hundreds of millions of government dollars are disappearing out the door. You don’t think they’re gonna be grateful? You don’t think their mightn’t be a few cosy sinecures in Paris, or London, or a luxury company flat in Monaco permanently available when the whole thing’s blown over and everybody’s retired from politics?

    It’s the money, Fred, not politics or policy or principle. They’re just the smokescreens designed to throw us off the scent and get us bickering amongst ourselves.

  39. steve said

    Latest Hockey story.

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/voters-take-stick-to-hockey/2007/10/03/1191091220486.html

  40. 50_sigmas said

    Fred at 37,

    It is believed by some that the Treasurer (sic) is unusually well-informed in this area.

  41. fred said

    Thanks for the responses 38 and 40.
    I saw somewhere, New Matilda I think, that an American consulting firm had been paid millions [$4 million from memory] to do a feasibility study for a nuke power station near Pt. Augusta [where I used to live] in SA.
    And of course the trio, Hugh, Robert and the other bloke, were ‘in the loop’ with Howard re nuclear stuff well before the Australian public was allowed to be informed.
    I was hoping you might have more.
    If you see anything chuck it my way will you please [if possum doesn’t mind seeing it here].
    Finally, it is of course always a good principle, as Deep Throat advised, to ‘follow the money’.

  42. lurker said

    Why did the govt spend money on a Adelaide to Darwin railway? Who built the railway? Halliburton, Dick Cheney’s company. Where has a local nuclear waste dump been proposed? NT. Where are the world’s largest uranium deposits? Outback SA. Which of Johnny’s mates announced last year they were setting up a nuclear power company? Morgan and de Crespigny.

    You add it up.

  43. I am in desperate need of help on who i should vote for at the next election.
    This has been my last five years,
    1: The value of my family home has increased 6 fold
    2: My interest rates are the lowest they have ever been
    3: I have never earnt so much money
    4: My family for the first time has receieved Government monetary assistance
    5: When we recieved $3,000 for our first born child we invested it in a mining company (Foretescue)that has seen the value of young Madison (our child) share portfolio reach nearly 40K before her third birthday.
    6: My wife has been able to re-enter the workforce and recieve Government assistance for child care

    So if i vote for Kevin 07′ will my life over the next five years be as good?

  44. Terri Francis said

    Graham,
    I dont think you need to contact a leftist blog page to work out who to vote for. If life is so good why would you change your vote (presuming you voted for the libs at the last election), i know my life has never been better. I am going to vote for little Johnny for the first time and i now regeret that i wasted my previous votes on bruiser latham and fat cat beazley!

  45. Possum Comitatus said

    Terri/Graham – since your split personalities share the same IP address, could you please piss off and talk to yourself on someone elses blog.

    Possum.

  46. gusface said

    Possum let em piss in each others pocket

    terri/graham is cool

    shows the sheer arrogance and TOTAL focus on MONEY/ASSESTS

    jeez cant these jokers try maybe just a little

    oops i forgot they have no ideas/inspiration

    GO RUDD

  47. Bushfire Bill said

    A daughter called “Madison”, with her own share portfolio? Instant puke material.

    Nausea factor: 10/10 12/10.

  48. PJay said

    Possum.

    Can you do something along the lines of your Smear-O-Meter, but a circular pattern? Needs to show the likes of ‘Poll’ -> ‘Panic’ -> ‘Pretend to Govern’ -> ‘Wedge” -> ‘Wait’ -> ‘Poll’ etc..

  49. stevet said

    Possum, I would like to ask “Graham” a question before he pisses off. My interest rates are higher than when I bought my house three years ago, so how in the hell are your interest rates lower? What a wonderful bank you must have?

    And tell me? Do they pay you and “Terri” well at the Government Members’ Secretariat?

  50. The Doctor said

    With Howard seeming to pushing out the poll date, I’m wondering if he is trying for a sympathy vote after he gets sacked on Nov. 25.

  51. Tim Bourke said

    My personal bet for the poll date is January 18th. Janet wants another Christmas in Kirribili, John will hope that there is another World Trade Center (Tampa, Kids Overboard whatever) and as he wants to be Australia’s 2nd longest serving Prime Minister, he’ll make it as hard as possible for anyone to overtake him.

  52. Corangamite Flyer said

    Graham and Terri! See what I mean folks. I bet they read the Herald Sun, and learn all there is to know about neighbour hood safety and big international issues from Anna Coren and A Current Affair. To busy caring only about themselves. They are definetly not thinkers, and so this is what I am saying. These guys are out there. Everywhere!! So it seems.

  53. steve said

    I think Graham and Terri will find it difficult to run the Interest rate fantasy for long, according to Peter Martin it is almost certainly a rates rise coming this November.

    http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/10/mid-campaign-november-interest-rate.html

  54. M Fine said

    Post45 is the best laugh I’ve had all week………how sad do you have to be to post a comment agreeing with yourself?

  55. Doug said

    Possum did I see on a the=read on the Pollbludger, I think, that Antony Green accused you of overanalysing polling figures?

    wha is the world coming to?

  56. Jizz Master Zero said

    Think Graham at comment #44 has been sampling so much of his stock to the point where he can’t even spell ‘liquor’…

  57. wilful said

    >1: The value of my family home has increased 6 fold

    That’s nice, Federal Government has at best little to do with that.

    >2: My interest rates are the lowest they have ever been

    Awesome!!! Which Bank? I want a piece of that action.

    >3: I have never earnt so much money

    You’ll find that as people develop in their careers they do earn more. I would be a sad sort if I was earning more 11 years ago, whenever that was.

    >4: My family for the first time has receieved Government monetary assistance

    Oh goody, middle class welfare, at least it works for some people.

    >5: When we recieved $3,000 for our first born child we invested it in a mining company (Foretescue)that has seen the value of young Madison (our child) share portfolio reach nearly 40K before her third birthday.

    Lucky you and Madison. But I’ll tell ya, Howard had absolutely zip to do with the rise of Fortescue.

    >6: My wife has been able to re-enter the workforce and recieve Government assistance for child care

    Well if you want that to get better you’d do well to look at Labor’s offering, which I expect will be far better than the current mob’s regarding workforce participation.

  58. otiose said

    i drive a taxi in canberra, after 30 yrs in IT. a fare tonight (a police contestant in a shooting comp) opined that ljh was history. nowhere near possum’s stats but shit i hope the taswegian copper was un-left

  59. Possum Comitatus said

    Doug at 55, sure did.From a purely psephological perspective he’s right,it is over analysed.

    But I don’t much care for the orthodoxies of psephology (if you haven’t already realised it from the content of the site), I’m an econometrician and I look at polling data from that perspective: an ambiguous data set that is the only quantitative data we have about the state of political opinion, and hence the only baseline data we have from which to attempt to derive meaning about the coming election and provide a window into its results.

    We’ve been ahead of the curve for months, where we’ve identified seats that no one thought were in play (often causing much scoffing in disbelief) only to have that reality later verified by internal polling. We knew when apparently “emerging” trends were nothing but autoregressive noise that subsequent polls verified, we’ve predicted the strong preference flows to the ALP that are occurring (even though it doesn’t make psephological sense)and have been against the herd since May when the blog first started.

    Antony is right – I do over analyse the data… but it’s serving its purpose.

  60. Lastone said

    Hi Poss!
    Re your first two graphs. ALP primary vote Newspoll all 2007 looks like a drunk has tried to draw a straight line. The TPP Graph has a whole heard of peaks and troughs. If the primary vote is so constant why such variation in the TPP?

  61. Lastone said

    oops spelling! Sigh! make that Herd

  62. Possum Comitatus said

    The TPP issue is mostly about the minor party vote variation, and the variation in the composition of that vote.So while the ALP primary is pretty solid, the Coalition primary wanders around a fair bit, as does the minors (and within the minors things like the size of the Greens and Family First vote).It the Lib primary and minor party movement combined that make the TPP look like its jumping around more than the ALP primary.But also note the scale on both the primary vote and TPP vote graphs for the ALP.I was lazy and didnt make them the same scale – once you rejig the scale in your head the TPP still looks more jumpy than the ALP primary, but not by as much.

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