Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

Speaking of Spin

Posted by Possum Comitatus on October 8, 2007

Centripetal is the word of the moment by the looks of the political stories in the papers today.

Over at the Oz, ‘Coalition Buoyed by Mill‘ is the headline which goes on to say:

JOHN Howard heads to Tasmania this week armed with private Liberal Party polling showing his Government’s approval for the Gunns pulp mill will significantly boost its chances in the state’s key seats.

The polling, obtained by The Australian’s columnist Glenn Milne, reveals the Coalition’s support was rising in all Tasmanian electorates except Lyons, where Liberal candidate Ben Quin was speaking out against the pulp mill.”

In reality, what this actually means is that the Liberal Party support has improved from an ALP TPP in the low 60s to merely being in the high 50s, not that you’d know from the hysterical spinning of the results by the Liberal Party to the journo’s.

You see, the bad polls in Lyons had nothing to do with the Liberal Party per se….. No no no! It was all the result of their ex-candidate Ben Quinn publically speaking out about the pulp mill.

Yesiree, that 11% drop in the Lib vote was all his fault! And in that whole Basil Fawlty “don’t mention the war” type way, the fact that the Libs were getting smashed in Tassie before the pulp mill was even an issue seems to have been lost in all the noise.

So the reality of the Liberal Party polling telling them that they are getting a thorough spanking in Tasmania has been spun into a Pulp Mill led resurgence, simply by using Quinn as a scapegoat and telling some hack that the polls are narrowing, while not telling him the narrowing is actually one from being smashed to smithereens to merely a solid rogering; a solid rogering that’s been the long run trend in Tassie since December.

Honestly, what a load of poorly-spun twaddle

Meanwhile, on a less rotational front, Michael McKenna in the same paper puts some more meat on the bones about things we’ve been saying here for a while about Ryan, the most pertinent being:

Liberal campaign strategists have reclassified the Brisbane seat of Ryan, held by a margin of 10.4per cent following the 2004 election, as an “ultra-marginal seat” after internal polling showed Coalition support had fallen to the second-lowest of the Coalition-held seats in Queensland, just behind the electorate of Bonner, sitting on a margin of 0.5per cent.”

The article is well worth a read. McKennas last few points on how “party insiders say” is particularly well treated i.e with a grain of salt, almost as an afterthought at the end of the article.If only others followed the same example.

“Party insiders” saying that Vasta is the only one of three Qld members involved in the police investigations which was trailing the ALP candidate is nonsense according to every other piece of polling done in Qld.

UPDATE

Graham Young has more on the Ryan leak, including the local party factionalism over at Ambit Gambit. Worth a look

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14 Responses to “Speaking of Spin”

  1. David Gould said

    I have not seen any Tasmanian specific polls. Do you have any links? Given the relatively small number of Tasmaninans being polled in the national polls, what kind of error margin are we talking about?

  2. Possum Comitatus said

    There’s been a Tassie specific polls published earlier in the Apple Isle, but I’ve also heard about this Tassie polling from Libs and ALP polling as well.Both polling I’ve heard about matches up well not only with each other, but also sits pretty tight with the Tassie polls published by some local group down there.If anyone has a link to those published Tassie polls, please feel free to drop them into the thread somewhere.

  3. greggo said

    Glenn Milne – say no more. He and the Government Gazette richly deserve each other.

  4. Tomasso said

    Maybe it’s a wrestling match about the senate.

    The Greens will win one senate seat, the ALP and LP two, and one left over (currently LP). If the LP doesn’t get the third, their senate majority is at risk. Who’s going to get the sixth seat? Nobody knows, but with ALP doing “little sir echo”, a strident Howard may be playing up to the red necks. I’d at least bet the calculators have been all over this one.

    T.

  5. knoxville said

    Perhaps the headline on this particular work of fiction should have read:
    “Lack of trouble at new mill”

  6. Kevin Brady said

    I heard (or saw) somewhere today that the betting at the moment on a seat-by-seat basis is suggesting a narrow Labor win, even though the national polling is suggesting a wipeout. Has anyone seen something similar, or can anyone comment on this?

  7. disenfranchised Gippslander said

    Kevin Brady (good Irish name?) This has been a fact for weeks.. see Simon jackman’s site..IMO it’s a function of a thin markeet (ie few bets).

  8. Evan said

    That Michael Johnson’s a piece of work. Good to see him shitting bricks over something other than the factional wars at party HQ.

  9. EMRS polling figures from the five Tasmanian seats here.

  10. Amused said

    “Rogering”… “Spanking”… Gosh. I’m going to have to put a p*rn filter on this page.

    I have a question about the EMRS polling for Braddon. It shows a promising leap in support for the coalition from 36 to 46 (2pp) between August and October. But surely the margin of error has got to be huge for the sample size of 206? Especially when Braddon is such a diverse electorate – timber cutting up the far northwest, mining on the west, holiday resorts like Port Sorell and Boat Harbour, tourist towns like Latrobe and Stanley, Industrial towns like Burnie, Service towns like Devonport, Farming communities like Deloraine… Can you get a representative sample out of such a diverse electorate with only 206 responses? (just asking)

  11. David Gould said

    I do not think that you can. The margin of error is something of the order of 7 per cent at the electorate level.

  12. EconoMan said

    Good to see some Tassie polling. Braddon is a slight risk, but my bet on the Tassie clean sweep looks good.

    As greggo put it: Glenn Milne, ‘nuf said.

  13. […] The ‘lefty’ blogosphere (which this humble blog is part of) has been debating the bias of News Corporation newspapers against the Federal Labor Opposition. […]

  14. Leopold said

    If I recall correctly, Labor got 54-55% in Tasmania in 2004 – so for Labor’s vote to be down into the high 50s WOULD actually be news, Possum. Would suggest the swing there is about half the current swing in the national polls, rather than approximately in line as in the EMRS polls.

    The claim that the Coalition is ahead in Bowman isn’t unbelievable – Laming has a 9% margin. Moreton is the curious one. I’d love to hear something from ‘Labor insiders’ about the claim that Hardgrave is in front.

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