The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy
Posted by Possum Comitatus on October 19, 2007
And for those ALP supporters, remember, the cover says “Don’t Panic!”
Two new big polls out today; the Coalitions favourite pollster Galaxy and the mogodon of Australian polling, ACNielsen, have both unleashed their figures on the nervous political landscape.
With impeccable timing for the Coalition that only Galaxy can muster, their poll today showed a 3 point increase in the Coalitions primary vote to 43 and one point drop in the ALP primary to 45. This resulted in a two-party preferred estimate of 53/47, a 3 point drop from last polls ALP 56 headline figure.
The minor party and others vote reduced from 14 down to 12 and the undecideds were at an extremely low 4%. The MoE was about 3.5%
So, what to make of this?
The Galaxy result has the ALP at somewhere between 56.5% and 49.5% on a TPP.
Galaxy also had Rudd ahead in the Preferred PM stakes at 50% to 41% for Howard.
That makes it business as usual until we see another Galaxy, as is always the way with these things. Small samples don’t help either.
Moving right along to ACNielsen, the primary votes of the ALP and the Coalition were both up, with the ALP up 1 to 48 and the Coalition up 2 to 42. This resulted in a two party preferred estimate of 54/46 to the ALP.
Again, no movement – business as usual.
The minor party and other vote collapsed 3 points to 10 and the MoE on the poll was about
So all we can say is that the ALP is on TPP terms somewhere between
51.5% and 56.5% 51% and 57%.
[I misread the sample size for ACN there… sorry]
Interesting though is the change in the preference flows for ACN. Last poll ACN had the preference flow to the ALP at 69%, consistent with preference flows for the last 8 months or so, and this poll has it down at 60%. That suggests that the Coalition picked up minor party voters that were preferencing the ALP and received a primary vote from them, improving their own position and also improving their preference flows from the remaining minor party vote.
Personally that looks a bit smelly to me, and a 55 TPP figure running off the back of 48 primary would be more consistent with every other poll published over the last 8 months in terms of preference flows – excluding, of course, the governments perennial favourite pollster, Galaxy with their congruous timing.