Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

Crosby Textor and the Census Data.

Posted by Possum Comitatus on October 29, 2007

Oh the psephy joy of it all, the Second Release of the 2006 Census data is upon us bringing such sweet, sweet offerings.

After spending a quiet weekend chewing though it, today I thought we might have a squiz at how Coalition held seats in Qld play out in the demographic stakes, taking into account what we know about swinging demographics in Qld from the infamous Crosby Textor OzTrack 33 Research.For those interested in what the CT research had to say about Qld, simply click the thumbnail:

ctqld1.jpg

So let’s pull out of the census data the following:

-The 18-24 age group as a proportion of the electorate aged 18 years and over

-The number of Part Time workers in each electorate as a proportion of the electorate aged 18 years and over

-An approximation of Lower White/Upper Blue collar workers (extracted from employment by industry) in each electorate as a proportion of the electorate aged 18 years and over.

That will give us an idea of how the swings might play out in Qld based on three of those CT identified demographics.

But we’ll also add a couple of other stats. Firstly, the percentage of the electorate that lived in a different Statistical Local Area 12 months before the 2006 Census (called SLA 1+), and proportion of the electorate that lived in a different Statistical Local Area in the 2001 census (called SLA 5+).

That way we’ll get an idea of which electorates are experiencing a changing population over both the short and medium term. Some of these results are really quite amazing and highlight just how rapid some places in Qld are changing – Fadden being the prime example.

We’ll also look at housing affordability via the percentage of median household income that would be taken up by making the median home loan repayment per electorate. This will give us a figure that we can work with to look at the possible impact of interest rate increases.

All of these are based on the current electoral distribution, and we’ll do the Coalition held seats in Qld. So first up just the raw figures:

Division Margin% Housing Affordability SLA 1+ SLA 5+ PT percent 18-24 Lower White/ Upper Blue
               
Blair 5.7 28.64 9.22 26.08 17.03 12.45 29.52
Bowman 8.9 30.9 13.6 39.08 19.73 11.75 33.89
Dawson 10 28.27 10.35 26.94 16.22 11.86 33.59
Dickson 8.9 28.93 12.23 35.8 21.06 11.29 36.09
Fadden 15.9 36.03 19.72 50.29 19.25 11.91 32.13
Fairfax 12.4 35.54 14.44 40.51 20.87 10.2 27.98
Fisher 11 35.74 14.1 39.19 19.36 10.18 27.79
Flynn 7.7 25.53 11.63 30.4 16.12 11.3 32.2
Forde 11.5 30.72 12.84 38.64 18.12 11.72 34.88
Groom 18.8 28.39 15.8 40.9 18.35 13.82 29.07
Herbert 6.2 27.68 19.5 45.14 17.52 16.87 32.61
Hinkler 8.3 37.25 10.5 32.65 15.86 8.95 22.47
Leichhardt 10.3 30.17 14.9 35.71 18.75 12.11 30.65
Longman 6.7 35.07 14.5 40.79 17.05 11.21 30.71
Maranoa 21 28.27 10.2 28.08 16.7 9.57 24.49
McPherson 13.9 37.26 16.5 43.11 19.95 11.55 29.7
Moncrief 19.5 37.55 17.1 41.64 18.26 13.63 27.24
Moreton 2.8 30.7 16.2 40.72 19.1 16.5 28.21
Petrie 7.4 31.1 13.6 36.2 18.37 11.33 30.69
Ryan 10.4 25.87 17.3 43.99 22.6 20.85 24.69
WideBay 12.2 35.24 11.4 33.79 18.37 8.22 23.95
Qld Average   31.46 14.66 37.76 18.06 12.7 29.7

And now we’ll rank them such that the highest proportion gets the number 1 position, the second highest the number 2 position and so on.

Division HA Rank SLA1+ rank PT rank 18-24 rank Lower White/Upper Blue rank
           
Blair 15 21 17 6 12
Bowman 10 12 5 10 3
Dawson 17 19 19 9 4
Dickson 14 15 2 15 1
Fadden 4 1 7 8 7
Fairfax 6 10 3 17 15
Fisher 5 11 6 18 16
Flynn 21 16 20 14 6
Forde 11 14 14 11 2
Groom 16 7 12 4 13
Herbert 19 2 15 2 5
Hinkler 3 18 21 20 21
Leichhardt 13 8 9 7 10
Longman 8 9 16 16 8
Maranoa 18 20 18 19 19
McPherson 2 5 4 12 11
Moncrief 1 4 13 5 17
Moreton 12 6 8 3 14
Petrie 9 13 10 13 9
Ryan 20 3 1 1 18
Wide Bay 7 17 11 21 20

We’ll also measure the difference between each of the raw figures and the Qld State average, to give us an idea of which seats are above or below the average State level for each category. So a positive “diff” figure shows how much it’s above the State average and a negative “diff” figure shows how much the figure is below the State average.

Then we’ll total the averages up for each seat to give us a really rough idea of which seats should be swinging the most – the seats with the largest total would have the higher level of dangerous demographics, the lowest total should have the lowest level of these danger demographics.

And we’ll only use the SLA 1+ figure for this since the SLA5+ overlaps the previous election.

  HA diff SLA 1+diff PT diff 18-24 diff Lower White/ Upper Blue diff total
             
Fadden 4.57 6.56 1.19 -0.79 2.43 13.96
McPherson 5.8 3.34 1.89 -1.15 0 9.88
Herbert -3.78 6.34 -0.54 4.17 2.91 9.1
Moncrief 6.09 3.94 0.2 0.93 -2.46 8.7
Ryan -5.59 4.14 4.54 8.15 -5.01 6.23
Moreton -0.76 3.04 1.04 3.8 -1.49 5.63
Bowman -0.56 0.44 1.67 -0.95 4.19 4.79
Dickson -2.53 -0.93 3 -1.41 6.39 4.52
Fairfax 4.08 1.28 2.81 -2.5 -1.72 3.95
Longman 3.61 1.34 -1.01 -1.49 1.01 3.46
Forde -0.74 -0.32 0.06 -0.98 5.18 3.2
Fisher 4.28 0.94 1.3 -2.52 -1.91 2.09
Leichhardt -1.29 1.74 0.69 -0.59 0.95 1.5
Groom -3.07 2.64 0.29 1.12 -0.63 0.35
Petrie -0.36 0.44 0.31 -1.37 0.99 0.01
Dawson -3.19 -2.81 -1.84 -0.84 3.89 -4.79
Wide Bay 3.78 -1.76 0.31 -4.48 -5.75 -7.9
Blair -2.82 -3.94 -1.03 -0.25 -0.18 -8.22
Flynn -5.93 -1.53 -1.94 -1.4 2.5 -8.3
Hinkler 5.79 -2.66 -2.2 -3.75 -7.23 -10.05
Maranoa -3.19 -2.96 -1.36 -3.13 -5.21 -15.85

The seat where the largest swing should be expected using this method turns out to be Fadden. If you look at the rankings you can see why – Fadden has a large number of new residents, pretty rotten housing affordability and is low-to-middle ranked in the other categories.

Maranoa is below, usually way below, the state average on all measures. Guess there won’t be much going on there come the election.

It’s also interesting to note that some of the seats where we know largish swings are happening, like McPherson, Herbert and Ryan for instance, can be explained to a fair extent through these demographics.

Over the coming weeks, I’ll do this type of breakdown for NSW, Vic and SA using the swinging demographics identified by CT.

So what’s everyone make of the data? Anything catch your eye about any particular seat?

Any further census data you’d like to see on a seat by seat basis?

 

AddThis Social Bookmark Button

add to kwoff

44 Responses to “Crosby Textor and the Census Data.”

  1. kwoff.com said

    Crosby Textor and the Census Data. « Possums Pollytics

    Oh the psephy joy of it all, the Second Release of the 2006 Census data is upon us bringing such sweet, sweet offerings.

    After spending a quiet weekend chewing though it, today I thought we might have a squiz at how Coalition held seats in Qld play ou…

  2. Kymbos said

    Possum, a while ago you predicted a change of seat in Ryan and McPherson. How do you feel about these now?

  3. Possum Comitatus said

    I still think Ryan is gone, more so everyday. McPherson was always going to have a big swing, whether it will be big enough is the question. I think it will come down to a bit of luck and momentum – there will only a be percent or two in it.

    If the ALP runs a strong campaign between the 14th November official campaign launch and election day, I can see McPherson just…. just toppling over the line into the ALP column.

  4. pondie84 said

    Possum, what you wouldn’t give for another C/T leak!

  5. George said

    pondie84, I’d gladly contribute $$$ to helping that along – I wonder if the possible leaker is reading this…

  6. John V K said

    Ryan, Moreton, Bowman, Dickson, Longman, Petrie, Blair and Herbert will be close to call.

    Using incumbent and electorate type and the weighting for and against state swing of 7.6%. (1,1,1) Known incumbent of good standing 1, 0 retire (or a crook), 1 Type of electorate mix urban v rural (1 urban and mortgage belts or mining lab base), and above matrix weight on swing of 7.6 and present lead. Mostly guesstimate.

    The Rudd factor and parochialism not considered.

    Possible 8 out of 16 in Queensland. Likely 7.

  7. John V K said

    oops means 0 for clear urbans with large mortgage belts (or mining towns as a major part of mix) and 1 for rurals and non mortgage true blue areas.

  8. El Nino said

    Sitting member David Jull is retiring in Fadden and both the Nats and Libs are contesting. If Leichardt can go to the ALP, I don’t see why Fadden can’t. The National Party candidate has some profile as the husband of prominant local councillor Suzie Douglas and held the equivalent state seat briefly for the National Party after a recent byelection. He might have enough recognition factor to white ant the Lib vote.

  9. Lyn said

    Don’t get too excited El Nino. Here in Fadden we wouldn’t know David Jull from Jethro Tull. His retirement won’t make squat difference.

  10. Let It End said

    Interesting analysis, thanks Poss, the data certainly help me understand some of the strange swings occurring in previously stable electorates.

    Personally I believe McPherson will definitely fall but that final table does show some confusing rankings. I know that’s just what the data says but, margins aside, I believe 11th ranked Forde to be a much stronger chance than 4th ranked Moncrief which is absolutely none.

    Nonetheless much of it does coincide with what I’ve heard on the ground.

  11. Enemy Combatant said

    “Anything catch your eye about any particular seat?”

    Acting on information received I’ve just had a serve of Ross Daniels in Ryan @ $2.95. Little fish are sweet. Good oil is sweeter.

    George, after working in, or the vicinity of War Room Rodent for this long, there must be a few CT functionaries who will leak out of pure spite. It goes without saying of course, the principals of this esteemed organization are pillars of polling integrity and therefore, are beyond reproach.

  12. Jason said

    Would you be prepared to make an early call on Herbert on the basis of these, Possum?

  13. janey from the block said

    Doesn’t Ryan include the University Colleges? In my days living on college, the majority of collegians were registered in their home electorate, not in Brisbane. There’s about 5,000 people across the colleges, if memory serves me correctly. Would that make a difference?

  14. Possum Comitatus said

    Jason,

    I’d pretty much already called Herbert considering the ALP polling on the ground in that seat. These figures more reinforce why that polling is the way it is rather than anything else.

    Janey,

    Ryan is a weird seat – Its got a large university student and employee population, but also wealthy small acreage lots, old fashioned Qld suburbia and even a bit of new Lego land. The student population is what probably blows that 18-24 age group out in size. I might look into the electoral enrollments for Ryan and see if there’s any great disparity between the census data and the enrollment size and get back to you.

  15. Kevin Brady said

    “Any further census data that you would like to see.”

    It should be possible to rank electorates based on percentages of families with children under 15 who do not own a computer. The question is, how effective will Kevin Rudd be with his pitch to these good folk for computer concessions? Where will it make a difference? It might all be a bit academic now, but could a policy like this really make a difference in the marginals?

  16. CL de Footscray said

    Very very good, as usual. I wonder whether there’s any point in looking at education levels in those seats which we’re told are relatively safe Coalition but said to be swinging a lot. In combination with household income and occupation might it be a proxy for the ‘doctor’s wives’ effect? I guess you’d have to look at professions as % of the electorate. Or do you discount that (‘dw’s’) effect, and generally rely on materialistic interest to do the work – I think your analysis of rates and primary vote had 75% of the movement explained by rate rises. There’s still a bit to be explained and predicted, especially in those sort of seats.

  17. George said

    Oh my god, anyone watching John Howard on the 7:30 Report at the moment? On interest rates he sounds like he’s going to break-down and cry… I would full sorry for him if he was human… (orry, couldn’t help myself there)

  18. George said

    excuse the spelling mistakes, due completely to my fingers not keeping up with my brain😉

  19. canberra boy said

    George, I thought he looked tired and anxious, and he spent the entire interview on the defensive. I’d say the troops are going to start running in all directions (other than towards the front) any day now. In fact they already have – witness the Cabinet Kyoto ratification discussion leak.

  20. George said

    Hey Canberra Boy, hopefully. The Newspoll is out, it shows Labor 48 to Lib/Nats on 42 on the primary vote. Labor is where it has been for a while, not sure where the increase in coalition primary vote has come from. Anyone know the MoE on this one? Newspoll doesn’t have the details on their website yet.

  21. El Nino said

    Steady ship for the flag of K-RUD and all who sail under her. NP 54-46. Still within the Lib/Nat ‘margin of terror’.

  22. Dinsdale Piranha said

    A 48% primary vote means game over. Period.

  23. It's time said

    It looks like poll bludger’s site has gone into meltdown after the figure was announced.

    Any information on the sample size.

  24. George said

    D Piranha, watch the usual PM cheer squad come out with pom-poms a-blazing on this slight movement in the Coalition’s primary vote.

  25. Crikey Whitey said

    Try again. Possum, I am getting Word Press Error at Pollbludger. Is it me or William? Thank you.

  26. It's time said

    CW

    It was pollbludger’s site. Stretched the site’s limits to the extreme, I suspect. It’s working ok now.

  27. Crikey Whitey said

    Thanks, William. I’m on again.

  28. George said

    My God, it gets better – Andrew Robb is on Lateline trying to make a comparison between the current movement in the polls with what happened when the people voted in the referendum for a republic. Brilliant analysis… not. Also, reading between the lines, he thinks the possible looming interest rate rise will mean voters will come back to the coalition because it will focus the “experienced to manage the economy” line.

  29. CL de Footscray said

    Well, the interest rate rise will focus them on something. Like getting rid of Howard. Really, if 54-46 is the good news what does the bad news look like?

  30. CL de Footscray said

    I did like the way Robb told us the libs are telling a story and informing us of the dangers of the ALP. I expect the Lateline audience was down to me and a couple of other people by then, but I’m convinced! (not).

  31. George said

    Hey CL de Footscray, so you were the OTHER guy watching apart from me! I did manage to get a beer and some nice kettle chips while he talked – felt like I was at the movies!

  32. Leopold said

    I am never one to delay blowing my own trumpet:

    “I will predict here and now that the next Newspoll (barring something extraordinary between now and then) will be headlined ‘PM’s fightback’ or some such, as it corrects back to a more accurate reading.

    Newspoll does this every few months – suddenly lurches 3-4 points on the Labor primary, then lurches back again in the next poll. Its meaningless.

    Comment by Leopold — October 23, 2007 @ 11:50 am ”

    Good news for both sides in these numbers.

    For Labor: their primary vote is still 47-48 according to ACN and Newspoll. That is solid, has been since June, and shows no sign of cracking in any poll (even Galaxy is close to its 5-month average Labor primary). That 2-point (or so) difference between the older pollsters and Galaxy may become really interesting if things tighten any further, as it will become the difference between victory and defeat.

    For the Coalition: the alleged Crosby-Textor primary vote lift appears visible in all major opinion polls at this point. ACN haven’t had 42 since August 2006, Newspoll since October 2006, and Galaxy haven’t been as high as 43 since they started polling this year.

    I note the caveat that all polls remain within the margin of error for Labor being on 55-56… but when you add up the collective evidence (including Morgan F2F, whose historical bias suggests 56-44 is about 54-46) I reckon a mild ‘Narrowing’ is the most likely interpretation of recent polling. We’ll need another round of ACN and Galaxy to draw a firm conclusion though.

  33. George said

    Leopold, in viewing any “trend” shouldn’t this be done within the same company’s polling., i.e. you should compare Newspoll polling alone over a number of polls, and not between ACN, Newspoll the next, Galacy the next after that, etc? This poll is back where it was in mid Sep as reported by Newspoll. Not sure you can read anything else into it.

  34. Kirribilli Removals said

    Andrew Robb kept banging on in his tiresome way about the Libs still having some major planks for their campaign.

    Andrew Robb IS A MAJOR PLANK! And dear Tony just left him to mumble on and on in his dreary incantation of the party’s election notes.

    Gawd, he is the most boring human being, and it truly makes you wonder how these lobotomised cretins take themselves so seriously.

  35. Leopold said

    Well, all 3 major opinion polls a) have the highest coalition primary for some time, b) the narrowest 2PP for some time (Galaxy had 53-47 in June I know, but the others were saying 56-57 then and it was obviously silly). That makes it less likely IMO that this Newspoll is just lurching around 56-44.

    Like economics, reading the polls is more art than science. Which is why we can have so much fun arguing about it!

    PS – I’m aware of the Online ACN. The primaries look much like the other polls I mention, but they gave 75% of preferences to Labor; implausible, to say the least.

  36. Leopold said

    “Andrew Robb IS A MAJOR PLANK”

    Hear, hear.

  37. CL de Footscray said

    For those who are experiencing breathing difficluties, the charts at
    http://fairnews.com.au/content/view/56/1/ may help. JJ pasted the link at Poll Bludger (thanks JJ). they show monthly averages for Newspoll primaries and 2PP for this year. Until Possum tells us otherwise, I remain comfited (as it were).

    George – I knew there must hve been someone else. I made a poppyseed cake while watching Robb. It was much more interesting and gave me something to do with my hands. He would be the first pick in the Australian team for the World Boring Championships.

  38. George said

    Sky News is reporting “ray of hope” for Coalition.

  39. CL de Footscray said

    George – Without wishing to state the obvious – what else would sky news report? ‘Latest poll confirms coalition disaster’? Even assuming lack of bias (big assumption) there is still the ‘kick the story along’ principle. In fact the polls are stuck excatly where they’ve been all year and if anything the ALP primary is as solid as a rock. But the MSM will have headlines along the lines of Sky tomorrow and that’s the story. Am keenly awaiting ALP ad blitz. Should be like new years eve.

  40. Mark said

    Possum you are a joy to behold. A drubbing…well absolutely!

  41. George said

    CL: “I made a poppyseed cake while watching Robb”

    cake making would have definately been more interesting than watching poor Robb squish about like a fish out of water in it’s last throws. Interesting choice for the Libs to send him in tonight on Lateline. I’m sure Tony headed off for a quick late in between letting Robb drone on.

  42. Eric said

    I thought the census data was using the old baoundaries, as my census wizard wouldn’t give me Flynn. Maybe that’s a recent develepment.

  43. Possum Comitatus said

    Let it End , I missed you at 10,

    These are just the demographics that CT identified, plus the population change which is big in Qld and has dramatically changed State voting patterns, and housing affordability.

    There are probably quite a few other big and small issues that resonate stronger in local electorates.

    Forde is interesting. If there is a Lib vote revolt in the new suburbs there (medium income 1.5 job households with interest rate issues there), Hajnal Ban the Nat candidate (that the old National pervs refer to as the Carnal Barn…. they’re such new age sensitive types those old cow cockies:mrgreen: ) will be a good chance at coming second. If that’s the case, the ALP might get over the line off the back of Liberal party preference flows.

    You’ve also got to keep the seats most likely to have a decent swing in perspective with their margins, so while Moncrief is a good candidate for a swing, it’s near 20% margin tells us that it really isnt going to change. But it may have 8-10% or so cut off it.

    Kevin at 15 – I’ll have a look into that.

    CL at 16, I’m trying to develop a “Doctor’s Wife Identification Statistic” to apply to a seats.A mix of income, education, houseprices, lifestyle issues etc. Not being a DW myself, who knows what it will end up as😉

    Leo you pollhound, I’m gonna buy you a shirt with “Teh Narrowing!” written across the front of it!😉

    Eric, the census data is all now available on the 2007 electoral boundaries.

  44. […] Unlike QLD where the swinging demographics of the CT research explained a lot of what we’ve been seeing and hearing about on the ground, in SA it explains either very little at all and local issues are a large player, or the swing in SA is very uniform. […]

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

 
%d bloggers like this: