Crosby Textor and the Census Data.
Posted by Possum Comitatus on October 29, 2007
Oh the psephy joy of it all, the Second Release of the 2006 Census data is upon us bringing such sweet, sweet offerings.
After spending a quiet weekend chewing though it, today I thought we might have a squiz at how Coalition held seats in Qld play out in the demographic stakes, taking into account what we know about swinging demographics in Qld from the infamous Crosby Textor OzTrack 33 Research.For those interested in what the CT research had to say about Qld, simply click the thumbnail:
So let’s pull out of the census data the following:
-The 18-24 age group as a proportion of the electorate aged 18 years and over
-The number of Part Time workers in each electorate as a proportion of the electorate aged 18 years and over
-An approximation of Lower White/Upper Blue collar workers (extracted from employment by industry) in each electorate as a proportion of the electorate aged 18 years and over.
That will give us an idea of how the swings might play out in Qld based on three of those CT identified demographics.
But we’ll also add a couple of other stats. Firstly, the percentage of the electorate that lived in a different Statistical Local Area 12 months before the 2006 Census (called SLA 1+), and proportion of the electorate that lived in a different Statistical Local Area in the 2001 census (called SLA 5+).
That way we’ll get an idea of which electorates are experiencing a changing population over both the short and medium term. Some of these results are really quite amazing and highlight just how rapid some places in Qld are changing – Fadden being the prime example.
We’ll also look at housing affordability via the percentage of median household income that would be taken up by making the median home loan repayment per electorate. This will give us a figure that we can work with to look at the possible impact of interest rate increases.
All of these are based on the current electoral distribution, and we’ll do the Coalition held seats in Qld. So first up just the raw figures:
|Division||Margin%||Housing Affordability||SLA 1+||SLA 5+||PT percent||18-24||Lower White/ Upper Blue|
And now we’ll rank them such that the highest proportion gets the number 1 position, the second highest the number 2 position and so on.
|Division||HA Rank||SLA1+ rank||PT rank||18-24 rank||Lower White/Upper Blue rank|
We’ll also measure the difference between each of the raw figures and the Qld State average, to give us an idea of which seats are above or below the average State level for each category. So a positive “diff” figure shows how much it’s above the State average and a negative “diff” figure shows how much the figure is below the State average.
Then we’ll total the averages up for each seat to give us a really rough idea of which seats should be swinging the most – the seats with the largest total would have the higher level of dangerous demographics, the lowest total should have the lowest level of these danger demographics.
And we’ll only use the SLA 1+ figure for this since the SLA5+ overlaps the previous election.
|HA diff||SLA 1+diff||PT diff||18-24 diff||Lower White/ Upper Blue diff||total|
The seat where the largest swing should be expected using this method turns out to be Fadden. If you look at the rankings you can see why – Fadden has a large number of new residents, pretty rotten housing affordability and is low-to-middle ranked in the other categories.
Maranoa is below, usually way below, the state average on all measures. Guess there won’t be much going on there come the election.
It’s also interesting to note that some of the seats where we know largish swings are happening, like McPherson, Herbert and Ryan for instance, can be explained to a fair extent through these demographics.
Over the coming weeks, I’ll do this type of breakdown for NSW, Vic and SA using the swinging demographics identified by CT.
So what’s everyone make of the data? Anything catch your eye about any particular seat?
Any further census data you’d like to see on a seat by seat basis?