Newspoll Tuesday…. Again
Posted by Possum Comitatus on October 29, 2007
How time flies, another Tuesday, another Newspoll.
The headline figures give primaries on 48/42 to the ALP, with the two party preferred coming in at 54/46 to the ALP.
First up; every Newspoll since October 2006 showing both Coalition and ALP primary vote estimates:
This again is just business as usual, but there is one thing that should keep even the most hysterical media pundits hyperbole in their pants about “The Narrowing”.
This Newspoll puts the minor party vote at its lowest level since 17-19 December 1999, at 10 points. Now the minor party vote has been declining, but 10% is probably a few points too low.
It has actually been the fluctuations in the minor party vote estimates that are behind most of the volatility in the TPP figures over the last 10 months.
Meanwhile, back at the much more stable monthly average figures we can now complete the October numbers and add them to the graphs.
Everything looks pretty stable there. But the same can’t be said for the minor party and others vote as it continues to decline.
Another poll, the same result. ALP primary of around 48, Coalition primary around 40 and a TPP around 56/57 to the ALP.
George has sent in the current primary votes with MoE bands: