Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

Bring Out Your Dead

Posted by Possum Comitatus on November 1, 2007

Today we have the quarterly Newspoll you have when you aren’t having a quarterly Newspoll – a sample of 3413 voters taken over the last fortnight, broken down into States, city type and demographics.

The State breakdowns have an MoE of around 4%, the age breakdown around 3% and the capital city vs non-capital city 2 and a bit %.

So let’s take the longer view first, looking at the behaviour of the States since the lead up to the last election, and where the entry for the 4th Quarter of 2007 is todays Newspoll results.

octstatesgp1.jpg

octstatesop1.jpg

Since the last quarterly breakdown we’ve seen Victoria come back to the fold a bit for the Coalition, Qld moving solidly to the ALP and WA moving a tad to the ALP. But considering the MoE on these things, it looks like we have 4 states bunched up around an ALP primary of near 40 50 (bloody hell, how’d I do that), and WA down around the very low 40s.

The Coalition though is stuck down around the high 30’s and low 40s everywhere except WA. No election is going to be won with those low primaries.

Next up we’ll look at the demographics over time:

octdemsgp1.jpgoctdemsop1.jpg

Slight movement to the both parties on the primary vote here is the name of the game, with the 18-34 demographic being the biggest mover, with a 4 point jump to the ALP. Maybe noise, maybe not.

Now for the swings.

First up, primary vote swings by State:

octgpswingsstate1.jpgoctopswingsstate1.jpg

Qld – Yikes!

Not that NSW or SA are particularly pleasant for the Coalition either. I reckon the Qld number is a bit too big and the Vic number a bit too small considering what I’m hearing on the ground in both places.

On the demographic front we have:

octswingsdemgov1.jpgoctopswingsdem1.jpg

There’s two big movements here of interest. Firstly the 6 point decrease in the minor party vote that’s gone to the ALP in the 35-49 age group. The other is the 8 point decrease in the minor party vote in the non-capital cities that has flowed to the ALP primary. If that holds, that would have to be a lot of the hippy green and rural/regional independent vote moving across, net, to the ALP.

And finally the big one – the TPP swing by State:

octtppswingsalp1.jpg

If this were repeated on election night, it would lead to around a 42 seat gain to the ALP and 102 ALP members in Parliament.

Qld alone would, should these state swings be uniform, deliver the ALP government with 17 seats falling up here. NSW is next on 14, then SA on 5, WA on 2, Tassie on 2, NT on 1 and Vic on 1.

Elsewhere the exceptional Mr Meganomics has a great article on some Newspoll data in terms of actual numbers of people over HERE

UPDATE:

You can see the results of this in terms of which seats would go by visiting Antony Greens spiffy election calculator, with the results pre-linked in HERE

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81 Responses to “Bring Out Your Dead”

  1. kwoff.com said

    Bring Out Your Dead « Possums Pollytics

    Today we have the quarterly Newspoll you have when you aren’t having a quarterly Newspoll – a sample of 3413 voters taken over the last fortnight, broken down into States, city type and demographics.

    The State breakdowns have an MoE of around 4%, th…

  2. Goodbye Mr Thatcher said

    I notice some in the media this morning suggesting that this poll indicates over 50s are ‘warming’ to the coalition – presumably in response to the $4B promise last week. Do you see any evidence of this poss?

  3. Possum Comitatus said

    There could have been a couple of points back to them since the last quarterly breakdown in September, but the movement according to Newspoll was so small it’s impossible to tell if it was noise or a real movement.

    What we need to remember here is that the most accurate assessment of the last fortnights worth of Newspolls is ALP 56% to the Coalition 44%, and primaries on 49 and 40 respectively. All the media horseshit about the wipeout followed by the comeback was just that – horseshit.

    It’s rock solid business as usual, and those TPP and Primary result headline figures for the combined 2 polls of 3400 respondents over the last fortnight have an MoE of just under 2%.

  4. Graeme said

    Labor will never collect even half the ’17 seats’ predicted by these figures in conjunction with the pendulum.

    Doesn’t that rather make these breakdowns little more than tea leaves?

  5. Possum Comitatus said

    Graeme, it’s just what the poll says.There’s an Moe of 4% on the Qld figure so the Qld swing could be as low as 9 delivering 10 seats (alternatively it could be as high as 17 delivering 20 seats!).I somehow think it’s closer to 9% than 17% though:mrgreen:

  6. Greeensborough Growler said

    Where’s Tassie?

  7. Possum Comitatus said

    Newspoll dont get a big enough sample from Tassie to bother analysing.

  8. Davo said

    Don’t think your copy editor got his coffee this morning.
    “4 states bunched up around an ALP primary of near *40*”
    “No election is going to be *one* with those low primaries.”

    Other than that, the results are enough to bring tears to my eyes – almost enought to convince this Malaysian expat to come home…

  9. Heretic said

    Hi Possum,

    You wrote

    “it looks like we have 4 states bunched up around an ALP primary of near 40”

    Should’nt this read ALP primary of near 50?

  10. Paul said

    G’day Poss,

    And if you plug those numbers in Antony Greens calculator – you get another visual.

    http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/

    Regards,

    Paul

  11. Possum Comitatus said

    Thanks Davo and Heretic – what a shocker.

  12. Greeensborough Growler said

    Maybe it was daylight savings what dun it!

  13. Another typo – “No election is going to be **one** with those low primaries.”

  14. Possum Comitatus said

    Thanks Bem – fixing up my poor spelling could quickly begin to consume my whole day🙂

  15. hergs said

    Great article, very easy to understand for poll noobs. I have read in a few places that if Labor doesn’t pick up seats in WA that they are done for. Is this bullshit? Also, why is Victoria on the move up? I can understand WA being lower for Labor (mining and AWAs, union issues), but what’s the deal in Vic?

  16. I have seen it suggested in the press today that JH is trying to be a little more upbeat and positive (smiling and joking etc). Initially, I thought that maybe this was genuine (due to improving private polling results) rather than put on in the vague hope that this will win over the many hundreds of thousands of votes they so desperately need. Surely JH’s political strategists cannot be that bereft of ideas that they’ve recommended that…?

    After reading your analysis Possum, I’ve now changed my mind.

  17. Possum Comitatus said

    Its complete twaddle hergs, the ALP need 16 seats and it doesn’t matter where they come from.A seat is a seat is a seat.

    On Victoria – I am now, and have been for months at a complete loss in trying to explain the behaviour of our Mexican folk. One minute there are big swings, the next minute they’re subdued – yet there’s about 6 seats that the Libs are worried about down there.

  18. Ratsak said

    Antony’s little gadget is sooo much fun. Take these numbers and lets be generous to Howard and give him “Teh Narrowing” of a full 5% in each state. (leaving the Territories unchanged)

    That give the Government Isaacs, Swan and Cowan. And they still lose!

    http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=0&nsw=5.2&vic=0&qld=8.1&wa=-0.6&sa=7.4&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1

  19. pondie84 said

    Yes Ratsak… but if you don’t believe they will win Bennelong or Wentworth or Boothby then they’ll get 73 seats and still be in Opposition.

  20. George said

    Poss, did you happen to hear Barry Cassidy on 774 this morning? He mentioned that he has seen some data that shows QLD and NSW will be total devastation for the Libs. Any idea what data he’s talking about?

  21. stevet said

    Poss,

    I have posted a link that I think ties in with your anaylsis together with some of the rubbish that is coming out in the papers and the tosh that the Caolition is carrying on about publicly:

    http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/senior_libs_raise_the_white_flag.htm

  22. Possum Comitatus said

    George – probably something the ALP gave him to look at.I can’t imagine the Libs doing it – they’re dysfunctional at the moment, but they probably aren’t that dysfunctional to go spruiking around the proof of their own annihilation.

    Stevet,

    That Daley piece was brutal.Worth a read for anyone reading.

  23. George said

    Interesting read stevet, thanks for the link. I have a friend who is a member of the liberal party here in Melbourne (sorry, please don’t hold it against me!) and he was saying a month ago what the Bulletin is reporting.

  24. Ratsak said

    Yes pondie, and if your Aunty had a Willy she’d be your Uncle.

    5% – 600 000 voters switching to Club Vermin in three weeks? After a year of rock solid polls? It isn’t going to happen, and that is the point. The rat is toast and has been since March. WA doesn’t matter, TAS doesn’t matter, NT doesn’t matter, probably even VIC doesn’t matter. NSW, QLD, and SA will provide Rudd with a majority. The rest will decide the size of his margin.

  25. KeepingALidOnIt said

    My theory on Victoria is that we have experienced the nurses’ strike in the past weeks. It was not well-handled by Mr Brumby’s government and the nurses got a lot of public sympathy. The gloss has come off the Brumby Government recently. The goodwill that nice guy Bracksy built up for Federal Labor (or perhaps more accurately, against the Howard Government) is being eroded, and looks set to continue. But I agree with the marsupial – I think Victoria looks a little low. WorkChoices resonates because whilst we are mortgage stressed, we can still pay the mortgage…only as long as we have job security, which WorkChoices takes away.

  26. Let It End said

    Ho ho, at last some figures to backup what I have been saying all along. Qld will be a killing field for the LNP. Whichever way Qld’ers swing they always swing hard.

  27. Beach Ball said

    Based on these figures on the Spiffy Calculator, Macarthur is still teetering on the Coalition side. However Poss, you amy want to make a few enquiries – the ALP have re-directed resources to Macarthur and Pat Farmer appears to be crapping his pants at the moment.

  28. Rod Hagen said

    possum wrote: “On Victoria – I am now, and have been for months at a complete loss in trying to explain the behaviour of our Mexican folk. One minute there are big swings, the next minute they’re subdued – yet there’s about 6 seats that the Libs are worried about down there.”

    Part of the issue down here, I think, Poss, is that there are quite a number of people vacillating between the Greens and Labour (I know many people like this), as well as people vacillating between Libs and Green and Libs and Labs. Water issues down here may have cost Labor some votes in the semi rural seats, too (with the “Bracks and Brumby versus “John Howard” play on water plans turning a State issue into a Federal one to some extent).

    The main thing, I suspect, though, is just some biggish fluctuations within the margin of error of a small sample. The notion that the Libs have somehow picked up 6% down here in the course of the campaign as shown by the latest Newspoll ‘re-analysis” in the OZ today is , I’m sure , fantasy.

    I might say, though, that I’m surprised how quiet the campaign is in my own electorate. (McEwen) which lies on the outer limit of the “possible Labor wins” down here. Barely a flyer through the letterbox so far , and not too much visible in the streets either.

    Cheers

    Rod

    Cheers

    Rod

  29. Bring Out Your Dead

    Possum Comitatus has an excellent analysis of last fortnight’s Newspoll, you really should read it. It has graphs.

  30. Diana said

    Apart from the 18-24 switch away from the Coalition, it’s worth noting the shift in female voting intentions. When Therese Rein was obliged to sell the Oz arm of her business Matt Price made an observation about the possibility that there was potential for a substantial shift in female voters from the Coalition to Labor. Rudd the Modern Husband goes down well with us girlies!

    Goodbye Mr Thatcher @2, George Megalogenis has argued elsewhere that the strength of the Coalition vote with the over 55s has already peaked. It would be interesting to see this lump of voters broken down a bit more.

    Oh, and for some interesting views on the ‘whys’ behind the general disillusionment with the Government and enthusiasm for Labor, it’s worth having a listen to Hugh Mackay and Phillip Adams on Late Night Live 31 October [it’s on the Radio National web site].

  31. Ratsak said

    Beach Ball, I’m in Macathur and I doubt Bleasdale can quite get there, but would love to be proved wrong. I think Farmer has lost a heap of sheen thanks to being a demonstrable lightweight and achieving the square root of SFA for the area, but not quite enough. Maybe just being pessimistic, but my tip is close, but not close enough.

    How is Hughes looking though? I reckon that one should fall into the Labor column on the night.

  32. MsLaurie said

    Re Victoria – when I was down there last week, I noticed quite a bit of carping in the papers about how they were being neglected by the PM, and that they were not being sufficiently bribed by either side.

    Not sure what difference this makes, but perhaps the Vics are getting irritated at the Govt?

  33. stevet said

    Ratsak, Beachball is right. From what I hear about Hughes, probably won’t make it becaue of a change of demographic.

  34. Beach Ball said

    Ratsak, The good Dr Adam Carr has done an excellent analysis of Hughes -v- North Sydney, and why North Sydney would fall to the ALP before Hughes did.

    If the future of the Liberal Party looks bleak at the moment, just consider what “talent” they’ll have left in opposition with No-a-Vale, MP for Hughes, one of the survivors of Kevin 07.

  35. Ozymandias said

    Hi Poss,

    I did a binomial regression on the last 20 Newspoll results since 4 March this year – Rudd’s peak. With this approach I can take into account sample sizes, which only I know for the last 3 polls and 3 others. I assumed the remainder were samples of 1150 which seems typical of Newspoll. I didn’t consider stratification in this model.

    In short I found a significant (p=0.004) trend in 2PP of 0.05% per day or about 1.5% per month towards the coalition (1.5% of the current ALP 2PP percentage). There is no evidence that the variation is extra-binomial based on a Deviance of 25.9 with 18 degrtees of Freedom (Chi-squared test p=0.13)

    An extrapolation of the current trend from March would give a predicted 2PP of 58.4% (95% CI from 57.2 to 59.6) on 4 March to 55.5% (95% CI from 54.4 to 56.7) on 28 October (last day of actually polling, not publication. (It was actually 54% I recall.)

    If this is further extrapolated to 24 November the prediction is a 2PP of 55.2% with a MOE (95%CI) of between 53.9% and 56.5%. Assuming a uniform national swing and using Antony Green’s Election Calculator (http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/) this would predict an ALP win of between 87 and 101 to the Coalition’s to 69 to 47 (with 2 independents).

    These margins are tighter than those of the actual polls as the regression analysis serves to tighten the estimates i.e. there is an assumption of an underlying linear trend in voter intention.

    On the ALP primary I get an even weaker trend, declining at 0.4% per month – that’s 0.4% of 48% BTW, which is not significant, p=0.45. The predicted outcome is 48.2% with an MOE of 46.9% to 49.5%.

    One slightly disturbing sign is the Deviance for the primary poll of 30.5 on 18 DF giving p=0.036, suggests the possibility of poor model fit – probably extra-binomial variation i.e. more volatility than sampling alone can account for. (although rounding of percentages may do this)

    All these extrapolations and predictions rely on Newspoll being an unbiased predictor of voter behaviour. If I could get access to ACN data for the same time period I could compare the results and do a test for a difference between the polls. it also assumes the current trend continues.

    Regards,
    Ozymandias
    My new nom de plume – formerly Bruce

  36. Ratsak said

    stevet and Beach Ball,

    I would love you both to right and myself wrong. I feel dirty since I was redistributed out of Werriwa.

    I would also love Hockey to go down to Mike. But Dana is a dingbat, I can’t believe if the swing is on that she would be left standing.

  37. Batman Centrist said

    I’ve noticed the (quite refreshing) lack of advertising down here in Vic: the Greens have about three billboards in Fitzroy North and Abbotsford, and Cossie has one on High St, Armadale; he looks like a senior staffer’s Botoxed him to stop him smirking, with unsuccessful results. No letterboxing (not even the wads of stealth Labor and Exclusive Brethren anti-Green mail that we got flooded with when Northcote got challenged).

    And everywhere in McEwen, pictures of Fran Bailey looking startlingly like Barbara Cartland…

  38. Gazzard said

    Hey Beach Ball. I think you’re on to something. I work in the Macarthur area and know that Pat is generally seen as a dimwit. A genuine lightweight. Anyway, I noticed a slick, HUGE, Labor billboard featuring Kev and his local candidates on the F5 (southbound) this morning heading into Campbelltown. Impossible to miss on your homeward traffic jam. Looked very expensive. I don’t think they’d bother with something that big if they didn’t think they were a huge chance.

  39. Bert said

    Let us all just carefully look at the figures/numbers. Unless they arrest Kevin Rudd for starting a war and putting all of us at peril nothing will change!

    The primary vote is holding.

    Thanks poss for your insights.

    Bert

  40. bryce said

    The non-capital city vote is a strange one. Possum suggested considerable movement from the Greens/Inds into the Labor primary. This was more than double the Coalition loss and on a very large scale. Also the male group was more than double the loss. So what could this mean?
    I suspect WorkChoices is, at least, a significant factor. Regional/rural workers in the past were never unionists but were covered by awards. They would never vote for Labor or join a union but happy enough to have the award system provide acceptable, predictable pay and conditions. All of a sudden, wham, here’s your AWA – like it or lump it. These workers identified more with rural issues and as such, even though not conservative, saw politics as a, sort of, city slickers vs us.
    I suspect many scales falling from many eyes.

  41. MsLaurie said

    Also, couldn’t there be a significant ‘tree-changer’ factor? Traditionalists leaving the land due to the sheer hardship, but being replaced electorate-wise with latte-sippers looking for a better life?

  42. Neil Cammack said

    Ozymandias @ 35, I love it when you talk dirty.

  43. Rex said

    Possum, can you comment on the methodology and likely accuracy of the 50,000+ voter online poll presently being announced on http://news.ninemsn.com.au/ ??

  44. zoom said

    Regional vote might also be explained by impact of the drought – more and more farmers are experiencing the joys of dealing with Centrelink.
    Hard to go on bashing social security recipients when you’re one yourself…

  45. Ozymandias said

    Hi Neil,
    I guess I’m saying if you can believe Newspoll (a big if) and current trends continue the 2PP election outcome will be between 53.9% and 56.5% to Labor with 55.2% the most probable.

    If the swing is uniform this means a parliament with between 87 and 101 seats held by Labor, with 94 the most probable.

    Oz

  46. Enemy Combatant said

    You weasel, Ozy!….. Bleedin’ situational psephologist:)
    Just a few days ago you were shooting for 88 on The Bludger. I went for 88 too and considered myself in esteemed company. So now it’s 94, eh?
    For a trained statistician that’s, lemme see now, that’s an even 6.8% points of fudge. It’s a MoE outrage!! Your deviation exceeds the bounds of the standard, sir.
    I guess a bit of stray fresh Newspoll can do strange things to a red-blooded pseph-head in spring.

    P.S. Love your figures.

  47. Formerly called Ozymandias said

    Hi Enemy Combatant,
    I’ve never posted on The Bludger, but I’ve noticed somebody else called Ozymandias has!

    This is my first prediction and I am a trained statistician, but obviously not trained well enough to avoid choosing someone elses nom de plume by mistake.

    Ozymandias is my favourite poem and I thought iit was a brilliant choice!

    Hmmm,

    The poster formerly called Ozymandias (work in progress)

  48. David S said

    It’s looking too good. Didn’t someone talk about a Liberal scare campaign 3 weeks out from the election? Maybe on the ‘wall to wall Labor’ theme with the red tide spreading over the map (‘union dominated Labor governments,’ etc.). Something similar worked for PiG Iron Bob.

  49. Enemy Combatant said

    Fair enough, Ozy wot was. It’s a bummer when one inadvertently shares a name in cyberspace. I withdraw my observations, unreservedly.
    You know, “Ozywotwas” has a certain…… coinability?

  50. Ozywotwaz said

    Ozywotwaz will do!

  51. Beach Ball said

    Ratsak, I agree – Dana is a dill – remember the “Stay brave and true” episode?

    The fact remains Hughes is the right type of seat that has a better chance of surviving a Tsunami, whereas the levvies around North Sydney and Bennelong have progressively been destroyed thanks to the moving demographics and boundaries.

  52. codger said

    #39 Bert, spot on. The GG is just ‘kellying’ around the MoE. Sells papers, rallies troops etc.
    Ozy: Cheeky Chi Kruncher? Bruce doesn’t quite kut it!
    PS http://www.pollbludger.com/666
    55:45 same old same old

  53. Why said

    ACNeilsen 55=45

  54. Why said

    Antony & Sol 7.30 Report
    discuss polls
    Kezza dropped ACNeilsen 55-45

  55. Ratsak said

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/its-a-long-way-to-gallipoli–so-create-one-here/2005/10/17/1129401198284.html

    My favourite Vale moment. Screw up the real Gallipoli, then propose a fake one in Victoria.

    The fact this turnip made it into the ministry and Farmer hasn’t is about the best illustration of his ‘quality’ as you can get.

    I know the Shire is in a parallel dimension, but I’ll be crossing my fingers on the 24th that they join the rest of us in reality and punt that fool.

    Labor today announced an $8mil upgrade for Campbelltown Stadium. It’s been a bit of an issue in the local rags, with Farmer saying it wasn’t a priority and claiming (incorrectly it appears) that the council hadn’t provided enough info. Bound to be of only marginal importance, especially in the Camden end of the electorate, but another demonstration of Labor’s desire to win Macarthur. It isn’t focusing out here to protect Hayes that’s for sure. He’ll crack 70% TPP.

  56. canberra boy said

    The thing which leapt out of the Newspoll tables at me was the Victorian vote. I’m not convinced, despite a couple of explanations offered in the thread, that there’s any identifiable reason for a substantial change in Victoria compared to the last quarterly figures (Jul-Sep). I’m putting it down to sampling error. Especially when we’ve just seen the PM spend the last 3.5 days in Victoria – they’re obviously defending some real problems. I think Higgins is going to be a big surprise (for some) on the Day of Reckoning. If Costello doesn’t lose, it will at least be close.

  57. fred said

    Could people humour me and answer this question even tho’ it is unrelated to all previous?
    What is the most desirable position for a party candidate to have on the ballot paper in a 6 way competition?
    2nd most?
    3rd most…etc to worst [is last worst?]?
    And combinations therof?
    For example if the candidate was standing for the ALP would it be better to have position #1 with Greens and Democrats [possible sources of preferences] below or one of more of those parties above the ALP assuming that a numerical sequence of 1-2-3 by the minor party voters would be more likely to favour the ALP than if the ALP were above?
    Any way you stats guys can come up with an answer or 2?
    It would be appreciated.
    [PS- this is prompted by the fact that the ballot for positions occurs tomorrow].

  58. Peter Fuller said

    Top of the ballot is the optimal position; next best for either of the final two candidates is to be above your main rival. So that 2nd best means that if one or more minor candidates head up the ballot paper, and the two majors are buried in the pack or in the bottom two spots, it is advantageous for the major who is nearer the top (even if that means they are second bottom, and their main opponent is bottom). This is because of the continued salience of the donkey vote. At Federal or State elections, the wide availability of htv advisories makes the donkey vote less significant than it is in municipal elections, for example – where candidates’ affiliations and associations are less well-known.

  59. fred said

    Ta Peter.
    2 follow ups if you don’t mind.
    That implies bottom is worst?
    [I heard one opinion that some ‘donkeys’ start from the bottom…comment?]
    And for the big money, if, last time ie 2004, the major that was below moves to above the other major this time, what do you reckon that would be worth?
    Roughly.

  60. Diana said

    Paul Bongiorno referenced Possum’s News Poll MkII article on RN Breakfast this morning…and Michelle Grattan declared that ‘the Narrowing’ isn’t happening. Your messages are getting through Poss!

  61. Martin said

    a shame those messages aren’t getting through to the rodent, just interviewed by David Speers on Sky. he is clearly in complete, utter denial

  62. zoom said

    Fred
    I think top of the ballot is worth about 2%.
    ‘Reverse donkey'(ie voting from bottom to top) less common.
    I can also remember there being a study out on donkey votes earlier this year that said they worked for male candidates but not for females (anyone got a link? Think it must have been ozpol site)

  63. Burgey said

    Possum,
    Reference to your work in the SMH this morning – think it was Coorey’s piece on the polls not moving.

    Bravo!!

  64. Bert said

    George Megalogenis in his blog Meganomics in the Australian this morning.

    ‘Nevertheless, Labor supporters are encouraged by their own analysis, which suggests a strong link between movements in the official interest rate, the Opposition’s primary vote and Howard’s dissatisfaction rating. The research on the Possums Pollytics blog is pleasing if you think Howard has everything to lose next week. But the Possums graph smooths out Newspoll by taking a monthly average. ‘

    George M comes to an interesting conclusion in the next line. He ignores Possums correlation and believes the newspoll result to the direct question.

    Bert

  65. George said

    Anyone have details on ACN’s latest poll MoE figure?

  66. […] love the Internet. If you take the analysis of today’s Newspoll figures and plug them into Antony Green’s election calculator you get this astounding […]

  67. I’ve been trying to make sense of the WA figures, especially from Kalgoorlie’s point of view. It is even more muddied now that Graeme Campbell is running for the Senate. what are non-capital cities in the West. Most of Kalgoorlie has these. A group not often polled are the aboriginal voters in this electorate. The Antometer makes the gap just 1.9% and only 83% turned out last time, a dismal figure. Any thoughts? “Labor View from Broome’

  68. Blacklight said

    possum, anyone you know?

    ‘Possum tyrashes priceless relics’
    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22690405-2,00.html

  69. carbonsink said

    My guess at what’s happening in Victoria is Rudd’s “me too” on the pulp mill is moving a few ALP primaries over to the Greens. I don’t think those voters will be preferencing the Libs over Labor though.

  70. hergs said

    Possum in the news again!

    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22690405-2,00.html

  71. hergs said

    Lol sorry about the double post Blacklight.

  72. codger said

    Possum trashes priceless relics! OMG
    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22690405-2,00.html
    Not sure about the priceless…

  73. Ratsak said

    Morgan 57.5 – 42.5

    Now where did I leave that Narrowing?

  74. RobertBe said

    It’s under that pile of apologies from Tony Abbott

  75. Crikey Whitey said

    Pat, pat, Possum. Your fame has reached SA local ABC Radio 891.

    Matt Abraham mentioned you in his morning chat with Tony Wright, discussing the polls.

    Someone called Possum Comitatus on Crikey does all these graphs and maps, really good.

    Yes, says Tony, he’s fantastic!

    Tony, by the way, practically declared for Labor, despite his long held scepticism, if not stubborness on the subject of the polls.

    16 seats is old stuff. Think 8% swings, in what are formally marginals. Queensland alone may provide that number.

  76. Alan said

    Hey Bruce (my new name is Ozymandias) -I am Ozymandias on Pollbludger -got that?

  77. Peachy said

    #40 & #44 – The thing that really strikes me about these figures is that it all seems to point to one overiding thing – WORKCHOICES.

    I was thinking about why the “non-capital citys” swing would be higher than the cities – only answer i could come up with is that the cities have a much higher concentration of high skilled/high paid workers = not affected as much by workchoices. If it is about Workchoices that also explains the high primary vote for Labor. If “Howards battlers” feel insecure and betrayed by Workchoices who are they gonna switch to? Not the minor parties! They would switch to Labor who they believe will deliver them better work conditions and more job security.

    If that is what is really going on here, then I’m more convinced now that Howard and co really are history. If it’s a protest vote against Workchoices then i don’t think anything that Howard does now is going to change peoples minds. It also gives an indication as to why the polls have been so consistent all year.

    Howard’s ad with the 2 workers talking in the pub about workchoices actually may be quite telling – the most powerful form of marketing is word of mouth. So when you have a percentage of people who have been put on AWA’s and had their rights and conditions stripped, of course they are going to be angry, and they are going to talk to their friends about it, who will then become worried themselves.

    Re WA:
    1. They have had a property boom. House prices have gone through the roof so they feel wealthier/more secure.
    2. The miners are on AWA’s but are earning loads of money, so Workchoices doesn’t resonate as much over there (for some anyway).

    Re Vic:
    1. Perhaps the recent hold out by Bracks over Howards takeover of the Murray/Darling has damaged Labor a bit. They see Howard as trying to fix things and Labor as playing politics.

    Anyway, bottom line I think is that Howard has betrayed his “Battlers”, and now they are gonna punish him for it!

  78. Alan said

    Sorry, “Ozywotwas” -I should have read a few more posts before trying to reclaim another online identity.

  79. Ratsak said

    Morgan Primaries ALP 49 – L/NP 39

    Roll on the Annihilation!

  80. JP said

    I’m surprised no-one’s picked up the parochialism angle on some of the state swings. Labor’s biggest swing (admittedly off a low base) is in Queensland, home of their leader Rudd.

    And the Coalition is going stronger than expected in Victoria, home of their leader-in-waiting Costello, who could be leader this year if Howard loses Bennelong.

    Frankly, I think Costello will get drawn and quartered in any post-annihilation leadership contest, but I’m sure the Vics think he’ll make it.

  81. JR said

    “Qld alone would, should these state swings be uniform, deliver the ALP government with 17 seats falling up here.”

    Methinks Possum be a bananabender!!!

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