Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

Weekend Open Thread

Posted by Possum Comitatus on November 3, 2007

Have any comments, suggestions, requests, criticisms or need to channel your inner C/T? Perhaps just feeling the need for some polly spleen venting – this is your place.

I probably wont have a post on Sunday, but I’ll be around to stick up charts, run regressions or whatever else you have in mind.

UPDATE 1:

A question – which seat do you think will have the biggest swing?

For my mind it’s a toss up between Adelaide in SA, and the Gold Coast seats of McPherson and Fadden.

The former would become a safe seat, but the latter 2 may not even change hands, being on 13.9% and 15.3% margins respectively.

127 Responses to “Weekend Open Thread”

  1. GetReal said

    Dear Possum,

    first, i’d like to thank all the blogs and all those who have put up blogs like these for providing an alternative media – a media that has provided an invaluable counterbalance to the MSM – a term I have only learnt in the last few months (how sad for me!)

    Anyway, I have a suggestion and am not sure how best to progress it…

    But if we are entering the era of the “Presidential” style campaign, why can’t we have a “national” internet poll on Bennelong…and to be fair, on Griffiths for that matter….

    So the idea would be either you set up a voting period, maybe on election day or maybe better still, a few days before the election, and you say:

    All those who want to vote for John Howard in Bennelong….

    I realise that there are lots of software programs etc etc, but if the offering is to the world at large, then surely lots of people could get there act together tgo vote

    The benefits of this idea would be:
    – it would show how meaningless online polling is?
    – it could market various sites, so if you were able to combine with other sites like oz politics and the poll bludger etc etc, you could both market yourselves and also suggest that you are able to filter out or balance all the spams etc, so that while not perfect your result has some validity

    heck, you might want to get a sponsor- perhaps Crikey, perhaps ebay, perhaps google, whatever….

    And why shouldn’t we use this technology so that all australians can get a vote directly for our PM?

    you guys can probably work out a way to do this, but I can’t imagine there isn’t some way to do it

    the betting market for seat by seat is one way, but I reckon a basic plebiscite on Howard and Rudd is worthwhile too

    so maybe you can just have a “window” of a day or so to vote, but why not?

    over to you and all your very well qualified audience

    I call it “Bennelong Plebiscite 07”

    what do ya reckon?

  2. marty said

    This is now my number one news source. Absolutely superb job, you’re a living national treasure.

    At the newsagents this morning I was confronted by the MSM headlines all braying about Peter Garrett, the narrowing and so on. In a panic I raced home to check this site for reassurance. I’m calm now (‘cept Poll Bludger is down and I don’t know what to do with myself).

  3. SirEggo said

    Yeah, what’s doing wth Pollbludger?

    Everything OK?

  4. Possum Comitatus said

    SirEggo, BillBowe Baggins seems to be doing a major site upgrade. Let our best wishes go out to William, such things tend to be a tedious affair.

    Thanks Marty🙂

    GetReal,

    The problem with that type of internet voting is that the people that end up voting are what is known as a “self selecting sample”.

    That means that the outcome of such a poll is never a true representation of the broader population, but is
    simply representative of the demographic that is willing to vote for an online poll on a political blog.

    I’d imagine that if we ran such a poll, the results would probably be 10 to 1 in favour of Rudd. If you actually ran that as a plebiscite in the Australian population it would be closer to 55-45 in favour of Rudd.

    Maybe by the time of the next election, but probably the one after that, internet activity will be so widespread that those types of online polls will probably be pretty useful for that type of thing (once the data is weighted to match the Australian population)

    Unfortunately, until then, we pretty much already know how the results would turn out and they wouldnt be particularly representative of the wider Australian population.

  5. adam said

    hey, love how stirton at the nielson has made an astounding discovery this week.
    where’s he been… i just got back from the flinders ranges, and didn’t see him out there…
    http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/proof-in-the-polling/2007/11/02/1193619139325.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1

  6. Possum Comitatus said

    Adam, I think Stirton has been playing a pretty straight bat with all this, he’s never really gotten carried away with the commentary.

    Good pollsters are naturally pretty conservative about these types of things – often not predicting the sun to rise until about lunch time the next day. For Stirton to come out and say that is pretty bold in the general pollster scheme of things. These guys do a lot of private analysis that never sees the light of day.For him to actually talk about it is pretty unique.

    How were the ranges?

  7. Frank Calabreser said

    It seems William is still having major problems with his site – there is a text version of the site, but with dead links.

  8. Frank Calabreser said

    I spoke too soon, refreshing the page shows a 404 error fullstop.

  9. Possum Comitatus said

    Frank,
    William had a bright shiny new generic WordPress template up a little while ago on the front page.

    I dont envy him at the moment!:mrgreen:

    Changing over can be like pulling teeth.

  10. Frank Calabreser said

    The New Template is up with text, but still with dead links to the comments

  11. Pritam said

    I was in the CBD of Coolangatta for part of the day and wandered into the newsagents and saw towering piles of the GG, SMH and the Torygraph lying unsold, their desperate anti-Garrett headlines screaming silently into the empty air. I wonder if their abysmal performance and behaviour over the past 11 years and particularly over the past 11 months has had any effect on their circulations? Any way of finding out? As for the ABC, I hope for the application of a stiff dose of castor oil at the top at some time in the near future.

    As with the first comment on this thread, thanks for your wonderful work. I tell all my friends about it.

  12. Rx said

    I’m sticking to my prediction of 80 seats. But I will be more than delighted to be proven conservative!

  13. Rod Hagen said

    I bunged the following into the ‘state of the Polls’ thread before, but it fits here much better:

    “So what about that ballot position draw, then? Doesn’t do Labour any favours in Victorian seats like McEwen and McMillan, unfortunately.

    Howard Govt Minister Fran Bailey is doing her damnedest to try to look like a Pinko Greenie Community Independent in McEwen. Big pink posters with no mention of the Liberal Party in letters big enough to see as you drive by (the party name may appear in the very small print at the bottom in the mandatory endorsement information, but I couldn’t see it while driving). All focused on doing things “locally”.

    Two personally addressed items in the letter box so far, one of which was on green paper with, again, no mention of Liberal Party or John Howard. The second was a a lurid pink flyer called “Working Together with Fran Bailey” on one side and “McEwen News” on the other, with no party identification whatsoever. Inside it has a list of everything from mowers for the Wattle Glen Cricket club to ADSL 2+ broadband upgrades for Hurstbridge (where, just by the way, we don’t actually have access to ADSL 2+ broadband and aren’t actually expected to in the near future either!). It never SAYS that Fran had anything whatsoever to do with acquiring any of these things, of course, but it certainly implies that she did. Fran has quite a reputation in the local area for claiming credit for other people’s work!

    But I guess the main point here is that when even Howard Government Ministers are pretending that they have nothing to do with the current government, and don’t even mention the fact that they happen to be members of the Liberal Party on their advertising, you can get some idea of how much “on the nose” the current mob really are! Looks like she might need every bit of the donkey vote that unfortunately has landed in her lap!”

    Now I see Magalogenis in the Oz suggesting that this sort of divorce from party is actually a deliberate strategy! – see http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22694299-5014047,00.html

    If so, aren’t we getting to the point where it is pretty clear that even Government ministers are fighting for their places on the life rafts! Minister Fran Bailey’s line at present makes the unseemly scramble when Keating was obviously going down look as honourable as the last days at Dunkirk or Galipoli. Her position seems much more like that of the first rat out of the Titanic!

  14. Winston said

    Personally a bit disappointed by Stirtons comments.

    Pollsters are usually OK when they stick to interpreting their own polls. When the get into broader political commentary they often make dickheads of themselves.

    But at the moment they seem to be scared to make a commitment.

    The polls have been very consistent all year. And those who take an interest in these things know the reasons.

    But Stirton says the polls are no guide to the future. So why does he bother? If 9 months of consistent polls aren’t at least some guide to what might happen in three weeks I give up.

  15. Frank Calabreser said

    Today’s West had a FAwning interview with the PM by Paul Murray (no not the Nova one)which co-incides with the first week of a promotion to win $20,000 in 6 weeks for Xmas. IT is usually when these promotions that the West go into high anti ALP spin.

  16. Frank Calabreser said

    More Rudd Smearing attempts.

    http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=433401

  17. Rx said

    Anyone else having trouble getting into Larvatus Prodeo?

    http://larvatusprodeo.net/

  18. Frank Calabreser said

    Yep RX, LP is also having problems. Must be WordPress related – though this site is ok.

  19. Enemy Combatant said

    Hey Frank, you been messin’ with deed polls or is it just that you require another set of coke-bottles?

    Maybe you better lose the “r” before you family starts takin’ hits in the honour department.

  20. Goodbye Mr Thatcher said

    Old R.J Hawke has delivered another one of his classic lines (following on from the recent Road to Damascus comment) on Howard pulling a rabbit from his hat – “The rabbits have all gone down their burrows and the chickens have come home to roost, to mix metaphors.”

  21. Chatswood Statsman said

    I am very grateful to read proper analyses of the numbers. I get exasperated at the supposed elite opinion pieces SMH, ABC and even SBS – then I see that the odd one of the columnists has been reading Possum, PB or LP and I calm down!

    Nurse – the screens quick!

  22. Frank Calabrese said

    Whoops re extra R🙂

    William at one stage had a message on his page saying that the site will be back within the hour, but with both his and LP having problems, thank whatever deity that the Possum is still alive🙂

  23. Enemy Combatant said

    Yes Rx, LP is cactus too. Teh Furry One one is running the only game in town tonight for unrequited desperates like us.

  24. Frank Calabrese said

    LP is up and down like a Galaxy poll 2PP🙂

  25. Rx said

    Thank heavens for the Poss.

  26. GetReal said

    Hi Possum,

    appreciate all you had to say re Bennelong Plebiscite concept

    I guess I was hoping that someone could create a device that would:

    – allow us to vote for (ie, in my case against) John Howard specifically

    – in a way that could profess that there was some filtering to allow for the tricks played in this space (and which don’t seem to bother the MSM with their own phone/on line polls)

    – and maybe you can shame the likes of skynews et al by being the first/only outlet to offer a national plebiscite on JWH

    accept you are right that it will take a few elections yet, but still hope bennelong plebiscite will be taken up somewhere…

    And that done and dusted,

    thankyou for all the work which must be done to give us poor sods some options when it comes to the corporate information we are force-fed…

    And come Nov 25, either the MSM have justified their existence, or they have been reduced to mere frippery…bogroll in the khasi of life..

    or

    the entire polling industry is complete rubbish

    I can’t see much middle ground

    And my money is on the maths…and blogs…

    for what its worth…

    i know too many journalists for my own good to give that sector much credit

  27. Frank Calabrese said

    FRom Janet A’s “Blog by David of Como.

    [This was backed up by Richard Wilkins who is generally trust worthy. Steve Price is a convicted criminal and also lied on national television at the last election about possesing a videotape of Mark Latham’s bucks party. ]

    So Price does have form on peddling Labor falsehoods’

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/janetalbrechtsen/index.php/theaustralian/comments/a_campaign_of_deliberate_mendacity/asc/#commentsmore

  28. codger said

    Poss hows the coffee; if Bill Bowe keeps this up you are in for the long nite; I’m giraffed out not to mention 11yo birthday partied; Mr Stirton is a well known commie & can’t count anyway what would he know; keep away from relics btw. The tabernacle with the bishop on our 9am might be interesting (a formal announcement re the demise of his career: The Harrowing-its official); do we know which pruned its are on the couch? Perhaps Mr Goward? Narr Mr ‘we won the war’ is a monty. Oh and Vote 1 G Bush.

  29. Stephen Tardrew said

    Poss though I do not post much your sight has been a breath of fresh air. Thanks heaps for the absolutely excellent analysis. I bet six months ago that the Libs were going down by a good margin and nothing has changed. You provide a great counter balance to the GG right wing drivel that does not count as journalism. Gotta friend who works for Rupert’s mob many of whom are spewing at the appalling bias desperately trying to hide heads in sand and deny any association. Stirtin is certainly putting the cat amongst the pigeons. Only saying what you have been clearly demonstrating for ages. Garret is a bit of a worry. No bloody discipline. Hawke is right “No rabbits no hats.” Anthony’s little slider gives me immense comfort also. Gotta keep spirits up. I cannot believe the fear that little Johnny has instilled in many peoples minds. I will not give into doubt. Hold up the standard fellas. Thanks again.

  30. Gaz Footiscray said

    Folks,
    Don’t write or comment much so as one of the silent and often late evening frequent followers of the blog, I agree with others above regarding the awful feeling in the pit of the stomach when we read of episodes such as Garret’s stuff-up and the media beatup. We wring our hands contemplating all the expected changes in polls. Reading your calm, soothing and like-minded words always renews confidence to imagine a political world without Howard leading it!

  31. SJP said

    Thanks for this wonderful site, possum. I log on daily to get my reality check and cleansing from the MSM crap.

    I’m compiling a spreadsheet of seats, on a state-by-state basis to watch on election night. Each state will have 4 categories with the following swings: 1)Marginal (0-5%) 2)Near-marginal (5.1-8%) 3) Near-safe (8.1%-11%) 4) Safe (but in-play)(11.1%+). I’d like to post it here so that anyone can suggest/make improvements. I going to used it like a bingo card and mark Labor possible wins in red highlighter.

    I know it sounds so 20th centuary (pen & paper) but when you are a slow 2 finger typist and are consuming copious amounts of alcohol (hopefully in celebration) you want a system to readily analyize the magic 16.

    So possum can I email it to you so it can be posted on this site for improvements and for others to use if they wish.

  32. imacca said

    Just read Janet A’s article in the Oz on the “Garret Gaffe”. If this is the best weapon that the LNP have at the moment then they are in serious deep manure.

    I really wonder why the Australian actually pays JA a salary considering some of the non- issue garbage she writes. It’s fluff and bubble and if it wasn’t online then i would never actually buy the paper to read it, so why do they bother?

    On polls, i have to admit that the only ones in the last few weeks that have given me any real doubts are these new marginal ones from NSW. I think the ALP has to do well there to win. Still, if the overall swing in NSW is 14%, and the selected marginals are only showing 4.8% or so, then where is the swing happening?

    Must mean some seats (hopefully Liberal safe ones) are going to swing big time. I really think its in the safe LNP seats because;

    1) that what the Newspoll Quarterlies have indicated all year, and

    2) in ALP safe seats, by definition, most people are already voting ALP. So it would should be harder to get the big swings that seem to be lurking out there if it was all in ALP safe seats.

  33. Frank Calabrese said

    Hmm, Porno First are doing a SEnate preference deal with El Rodente in Qld.

    [A PREFERENCE swap between the Coalition and Family First in the Senate is likely to be revealed today as the major parties lodge their how-to-vote cards with the Australian Electoral Commission.

    Preference allocation for the Senate must be lodged with the AEC by noon, following yesterday’s draw of the positions on the ballot paper.

    The Greens, Democrats and Labor have already announced a deal, shutting out the fledgling Christian-based party.

    But, as well as the Coalition, Family First is likely to receive preferences from Pauline Hanson and independent candidate James Baker.
    ]

    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22693293-3102,00.html

  34. Kina said

    In my opinion the NSW marginal primaries at 46/46 leaving only 8% for the minor parties when it should be 11%+ tells me someone has to sacrifice some primary to balance it out. That I gather is more likely to be beneficial to Labor. In other polls I have noticed the LNP picking up votes via minors only to lose it again at the next poll with the Labor primary remaining consistent.

  35. otiose said

    garrett’s gaffe resonated in me like “children overboard” – perhaps, given the polls, i’m just paranoid, but this plonker needs to be muzzled – beds are (really) burning in aboriginal communities and we desparately need to rid this country of racist rodent and his cheer-leaders

  36. GetReal said

    Re steve price

    If you checkout the Age you’ll see that his wife, wendy black i think, is also a senior adviser to Joe Hockey

    is this not a material fact?

    isn’t it something that should be put in ALL stories about this issue – so the MSM (age apart, and even then the fact is somewhat buried)ain’t telling the public all the material data

  37. Kirribilli Removals said

    Yeah, it’s amazing that the MSM will not deal with issues like Price’s wife as it ‘mucks up’ their story. I mean, where’s the interest if you put that on that front page? Everyone just yawns and says, “well, he would say that, wouldn’t he?” and moves on.

    So it’s really a case of the MSM withholding information to give the story legs. In the same way that they all gloss over Richard Wilkins’ account or also leave it out.

    It’s like the press chucking the chicken into the pirahna tank, and they obviously do it to get a feeding frenzy which they can then report as ‘news’.

    Call me cynical, but this goes to a bigger issue, namely that the so-called election campaign is pretty much a sideshow, with voter’s intentions well known and solid for months, so the press are just ‘spicing it up’ for their own gain.

    It annoys me how dishonest it is, while at the same time it’s comforting that it’s actually an admission by the MSM that Rudd is going to walk all over Howard, and they know it.

    The rest, as they say, is just noise, signifying nothing.

  38. Kirribilli Removals said

    One other thing on the Price stuff: if Labor really wanted to put this story down, then they’d do a Valerie Plame on it, that is they’d ‘out’ Price’s wife.

    So why haven’t they? Is it that they’d just like to let it hang out there for the disillusioned left? People who think Labor has sold out and would come back to the fold if they thought that Labor will actually reveal a more radical agenda once in office, might be persauded. Conversely, those who want to vote Labor now will not be much influenced by yet another Howard scare campaign.

    My feeling is that they aren’t too concerned to correct it as it just gives a slight tantalizing hope that they may indeed be ready to ‘change it all’.

  39. Kay said

    http://www.news.com.au/sundaytelegraph/story/0,22049,22696212-5001031,00.html

    Another MSM mention. Congratulations on your analyses Possum. When I read the spin on the polls in the papers, I come back to your column for analysis. MSM is looking for a story or an angle, you just analyse and give us the results.

    Kay

  40. Greeensborough Growler said

    Kirribilli Removals,

    Do you have much work on between now and Christmas?

    Watch this and you will see that Price has form on this sort of beat up.

  41. Kirribilli Removals said

    Ha, ha, Growler! I haven’t seen that for ages and had quite forgotten about the angry dwarf!

    It’s Priceless (excuse the pun!).

    As for work, well, we’ve got this booking for a joint called Kirribilli House on the 25th November. One Hyacinth Buckett it says here, and her hubby, are moving out.

  42. Brian said

    it seems to me that the various commentators who have been a bit excited about the apparent ‘closeness’ of the polls in the marginals may just have missed a vital point.

    The coalition have traditionally been good at holding the line in marginals – so maybe this poll merely reflects that fact; and that as corrollary the vote in less marginal seats may be significantly stonger for the ALP. In effect maximising the impact of the swing in terms of seats gained.

  43. Greeensborough Growler said

    Kirribilli Removals,

    If this is the job I think it is, please have this song on loud rotation.

  44. Kirribilli Removals said

    ha, “pack up your portrait of the Queen”!

    How apt!

  45. haiku said

    On election night, I reckon the ABC should attempt to convene a blog-hook up, with the key players in the psephological blogosphere. A panel discussion featuring Mumble, the Poll Bludger, Possum, Bryan at OzPolitics … maybe throw in a few others for good measure.

    Naturally the Possum would need to be dressed as a Possum, to preserve anonymity.

    What do others think? Shall we lobby Antony Green on this? It’d make a change from the usual format of Kerry O’Brien having Richo on one side and Kroger on the other …

  46. Grumps said

    Possum,

    I enjoy the articles and views that you express, as well as the thought out views of your loyal possum followers. Trolls not included!!! (Mind you your rello’s rollicking/partying through our garden late at night and eating everything in sight is becoming painful.)

    I will be interested to see how things go after the election. I don’t think you will be out of buisness, assuming no change on the senate front. El Rodent’s children have not forgotten/renounced the use of blocking supply in their belief of being the only party eligable to rule

    Finish rant, as for suggestions: Possible looks and views on polling in states. Do believe there will be change at fed level and change at state. Labor should have lost the last NSW state election, but this maybe a reflection of how poor the branches are in suitbale candidates and finances. IMO labor will lose VIC and NSW at next elections.

    A request, whilst you are operating at a high level with statistical analysis some mere mortal has spent some time reading the wrong trash in trying to understand what you are doing. Could you put some pointers in your text to good descriptors to assist in my education.

    If possible could we have a little hint of the age of your followers, (maybe small graph) sometimes us grumpy old bastards forget that the younger posters have not enjoyed the days of Wilson Tuckey spilling his guts on 4 Corners for a full hour on how he knifed Howard with assistance of JG Kennett, watching Fraser cry at his loss to Hawke (and his rise to Elder Satesman) and my entre’ to politics being the “It’s Time Campaign” and the dismay and disgust at the way that slime JWH slipped the boot to remove Peter Coleman (NSW State Liberal)from preselection for Bennelong, and other interesting events. I just remember Harold Holt defecting to the Communists, (my answer to his dissaperance) to help in dating me

  47. Diana said

    I note that David Briggs on Meet The Press, plus the three journalists on The Insiders were all singing from Possum’s hymn book this morning ie actually talking about what the poll numbers are and where they have been all year…flat, flat, flat. Is it too late to nominate Possum for Australian of the Year for dragging the commentators into the vicinity of the Real World? Hmm, is there a clause in the nominations that excludes marsupials?

  48. Lomandra said

    I’d love that, Haiku. It’d be hugely more interesting than watching Nick Minchin cry.

    No, scrap that…. Nothing would be better than watching Nick Minchin cry.😉

  49. Burgey said

    What’s this I hear this morning about Charles Woolley suggesting on radio that Garrett’s been telling people behind the scenes that Labor will change everythign once it’s in (aside from the Angry Ant episode)?

    Garrett should frankly be kept at the bottom of a deep pit until the end of the campaign.

  50. Possum Comitatus said

    SJP,

    Unfortunately the wordpress.com system doesnt really have any easy way to collaboration on such a thing apart from a comments thread.

    So on the 14th November, I’ll whack up a thread and keep it linked in the sidebar specifically to let the people put up their “seats to fall” predictions, and seats to watch.

    That gives the last 10 days of the campaign to do it with, which is about when the political party that is losing generally starts leaking polling numbers left, right and centre. So as new info comes out, we should be able to collate the most popular choices for seats to fall.

  51. Possum Comitatus said

    Grumps, I actually have no idea of the age profile of readers and contributors, but I’d imagine it’s quite a big spread. I get link traffic from sites like HSC discussion sites right through to invitations to address retiree social clubs about the election, so it looks like the age demographic is spread across the spectrum.

    I will try remember to stick in some easy to follow links about the statistics from now on Grumps, I often forget that a lot of people probably have no idea what I’m talking about sometimes when I start rabbiting on abut autoregressive behaviour and regression equations.

  52. rod price said

    Just watched Howard on the ABC’s Insiders. If the Libs want any chance in this election they have to get JH off the screens. He looks old and tired and sounds like an 1950s LP. I just cannot follow the coalition’s strategy at the moment. They want us to “Go for Growth” and take big tax cuts but are sending out alarm bells about the dangers of inflation and higher interest rates. Didn’t these guys ever do Economics 101? Also not sure about telling voters that you need the Coalition to keep a lid on wages growth. If wages are to be held back and we “Go for Growth” who gets all the benefits? Who else but the owners of capital and the CEOs. Ah – maybe that’s the strategy!!!!

  53. JustAlarmed said

    Hey Possum,
    Is there any data on the effect a candidates’ position on the H0fR ballot has on the vote (donkey or not)? I read an article yesterday (yes, it was in the GG and I am embarrassed, my excuse is that the wife likes to read the GG magazine insert) that getting the top slot adds 1% to their vote.

  54. Possum Comitatus said

    I’m not sure JustAlarmed, but I’ve heard that figure mentioned a fair bit about the size of the donkey vote as well.

  55. CL de Footscray said

    Dear Possum, could you put on your market economist’s hat for a minute and give us your take on the likely effects of the ALP first home buyer’s saving super-like tax break policy? (Sorry, it’s abit hard to describe). Is it likley to feed into increased house prices? Or is it de-linked enough? Ta.

  56. Good question CL de Footscray.

  57. Evan said

    Lomnadra says: ” Nothing would be better than watching Nick Minchin cry..”

    No chance of that I’m afraid. Like all Liberal Dries, he’s had his tear ducts surgically removed, along with his heart.

    It’s known as a total Thatcherectomey, an elective procedure that was quite common up until very recently anongst certain fundie right-wing political sects.

    Once Labor’s in, the practice will no doubt be proscribed, so that the next generation of conservative pollies will be spared the prospect of having to go through the same dreadful form of mutilation in order to get preselection.

  58. Enemy Combatant said

    “I will try remember to stick in some easy to follow links about the statistics from now on Grumps, I often forget that a lot of people probably have no idea what I’m talking about sometimes when I start rabbiting on about autoregressive behaviour and regression equations.

    Marsupials rabbitting? However, a Possum Glossary would be bonzer for mathematical phalangists.

  59. Plasma Supplies said

    Blogees

    We are looking through our shelves seeing if we can find something sticky to stem the Garret mouth problem. We would prefer medication that works slowly and efficaciously – perhaps with confinement to bed for three weeks or so. Some of our clinicians it must be said, want to garotte the Garret because they fail to understand how any non-conservative could ever want to willingly chat let alone joke with a member of the media. With Garret poking around like a mouse looking for a bit of media cheese – he is going to end up in every neo-con trap going. Remember everybody, unless you are Conservative with far right leanings, you are the sworn butt of the media. Never forget it. Never.

    We at Plasma Supplies are not into mass hysteria medications. Mostly this is approriate for an ethical company such as ours. But if we did devise an anti-hysteria vaccine it would be one that enabled salary earners, wage earners, contractors and franchisees to instantly understand that Business lobbies governments and manipulates economies in order to pay the least possible money out to staff – other wise known as human resources.

    And so we have the strong businesss world shoring up its wealth by collective management and salted with generous “donations” to politicians (lest they forget) while human resources blithely say “no I will do my own bargaing all by myself”. Alone, you have to be picked off by the caring neo-cons and returned to 19th century conditions. You are going to be told that any wage increase for you is bad for the economy while increases in Business profits are excellent for the economy. Do human resources have to be so incredibly naive?

    (No – I have never belonged to a Union. But I have spent my life in Business.)

    Plasma Supplies – proudly serving Australia’s sick

  60. Possum Comitatus said

    CL – it will feed into prices, albeit slowly, simply because people will still have to actually save a deposit and that takes time. So it is just another nonsensical demand stimulus to the housing market. The only good thing I can say about it is that there are a lot more stupid things one could do on this front, but dumb is dumb regardless.

    Housing affordability is low because of demand stimulus from tax treatment mainly on the housing investment side, and poor supply.

    Any government action which simply uses more of the same problem to solve the problem is an exercise in futility.

  61. Possum Comitatus said

    Dockerman, no offence but could you keep the monologues down. This is mostly psephy stuff and the political dark arts.

  62. CL de Footscray said

    Thanks Possum

  63. Rod said

    New Morgan results – http://www.pollbludger.com/667 says:

    “Morgan’s weekly face-to-face poll has the two-party gap widening to 57.5-42.5 from 56-44 last week. Labor’s primary vote is up 2 per cent to 49 per cent, while the Coalition’s is down from 39.5 per cent to 39 per cent. The sample size was 1086. “

  64. Rod said

    Grumps wrote:

    “If possible could we have a little hint of the age of your followers, (maybe small graph) sometimes us grumpy old bastards forget that the younger posters have not enjoyed the days of Wilson Tuckey spilling his guts on 4 Corners…”

    In case you are feeling lonely in your declining years compared to all the young whipper snappers, Grumps, I’ll simply say that I, for one, am old enough to have watched the LBJ / Askin “run the bastards over” motorcade pass through the streets of Sydney after coming out from watching “They’re a Weird Mob” at the movies! 😉

    Cheers

    Rod

  65. otiose said

    Grumps – i served LBJ a steak at Lanyon homestead in ’66 – then nicked the brown glass ashtray he rested a huge havana in

  66. canberra boy said

    Possum – re the biggest swing question (in your post ‘update’) – I understand the Gold Coast seats, but what makes you point to Adelaide?

  67. canberra boy said

    Breaking news – comrades, we’ve clearly been wasting our time here for months by looking at polling with huge error margins. The peoples’ media have revealed today that there is a poll under way which has proved 100% accurate over 5 elections, and that “pundits will be watching closely”. Trouble is, the result only gets announced on the 23rd.

  68. Bushfire Bill said

    I’m the same same vintage as Rod.

    I can even remember Father Kennedy in the pulpit at Sunday mass, getting to half way through reading out a DLP missive forced on him by Cardinal Norman Gilroy and then saying, “Oh, I’ll put the rest up for you on the noticeboard. You can read there if you want to.”

    Mind you, I had to ask Dad why he went and shook hands with Father after Mass.

  69. George said

    canberra boy, just finished reading that too – hilarious.

  70. George said

    And I love this quote from Ms Edmiston: “And of course, this can vary from day to day, too.” Sheer brilliance!

  71. seajay said

    A little rant.
    why is mighty mouse (Le grande rodente) refurbishing his empty house in Wollstencraft? Obviously because he knows he is rooted. In common with the rest of his species he knows that when the ship is sinking it’s time to clamber down the rigging and find safe haven. The coalition’s attempts to find some sort of traction is just the random contraction od dead muscles in a euthanized lab rat; of no significance.
    Garrett’s stupidity is a problem but minor, i suspect most people know a joke (albiet weak) when they hear it and the Libs pathetic attempt to make a mountain out of a molehill will probably backfire on them. Mind you, Garrett is a bit of a dipstick (met him a few times), very modern Christian and soggy and really a bit too old for a political future, sort of bloke you would like as your eccentric plumber rather than a minister.
    Even Milne was unenthusiastic today on Insiders; but of course he may have been ‘tired and emotional’.
    So just a random Sunday rave but, to quote Dad’s Army; “they are doomed Laddie, doomed”.

  72. Possum Comitatus said

    CB,

    Adelaide has been changing its demographics for a while to be more favourable to Labor. That’s reflected in the diminishing margin the seat had for the Libs since 96, where it went from 3.5 to 0.91 to 0.22, and finally moving to the ALP in 2004. But that 2004 ALP margin was was probably 4 points or so less than the demographics would suggest. This election, not only will that Latham effect (which is probably harsh on Latham since he actually lifted the vote substantially from what it was when he become leader)come back to Kate Ellis, but she’ll also enjoy the natural swing to the ALP this election, plus the benefit of being a new incumbent, as well as a popular local member. I reckon a TPP in the 60’s is on the cards.

  73. Samuel K said

    Isn’t the coffee bean poll thingy in Perth?? Won’t that screw up their sample given the relative right wing tendencies of our west coast friends? It probably didn’t matter in ’96 – ’04 because everywhere kind of moved in the same direction, but this time there is a real possibiliy of divergence.

  74. otiose said

    poss – care to run the numbers over the coffee-bean beakers?

  75. Possum Comitatus said

    What a good idea otiose, I might give them a ring on the 23rd.

  76. Samuel K said

    While I understand that any demand side housing scheme simply results in increased prices, won’t Labor’s plan at least provide first home buyers with a comparative advantage over established property investors? Further, isn’t it sensible to encourage more savings, particularly amongst our debt laden young?

  77. Possum Comitatus said

    Sam, the gap is so wide between the subsidies for first home buyers compared to the effective subsidies for property investors, that no savings scheme for first home buyers will make a dent in that gap.

    Is it sensible to encourage more savings? (I dont really a have a view either way except for retirement issues) And even if you came to the conclusion that it was, are these real savings since they are actual accounts simply to hold money until they can be spent on a house? It’s not so much “savings” in the normal sense of the world, but merely a vehicle for delayed spending.

    If the young are debt laden before they buy a home, with any debt other than an education debt, no amount of government policy would get them to save if their problem is an inability to keep their credit cards in their pants.

  78. Stig said

    There seem to be a few people here getting nervous about Peter Garrett’s last week; our caretaker government now appears to be targeting him. I’d be thinking that this is due to them not having anything else to talk about, as discussed in some of Possum’s earlier threads. As was pointed out on Insiders, the latest anti-Garrett attack ad isn’t going to change the vote of anyone under 50. Generally speaking, the seniors planning on voting Liberal would already be convinced that the ALP is a nest of drug-smoking communist former rock musicians, so it won’t change the vote of anyone over 50 either.

    On the swing question – while the potential SA votes will probably end up being higher for the ALP, the Queesland swing will probably be larger. I’m guessing that of the 5 seats with the biggest swing, at least 3 and maybe 4 will be in Queensland.

  79. Ratsak said

    Whilst I agree Poss that any demand side stimulus in housing must inflate the cost of housing surely the inflationary effect of this proposal is small, and not likely to have any effect for another 4 years. In the short term at least the proposal must be deflationary as it will boost savings thus taking a bit out of consumer spending. I don’t think it’s a brilliant or particularly significant policy, but like you said they could have done far far worse. Let’s hope they phase out the first home buyers grant over the intervening years.

    If the libs do come out with tax deductability for owner-occupier interest as some of their ranks are pushing then you’ll know the lunatics truly have taken over the asylum.

    The real reforms in housing affordability are at the local council and regulatory level. The red tape and bureaucracy involved in building or renovating housing is a nightmare that adds tens of thousands to the price of a home for no real benefit.

  80. Ratsak said

    Whatever the merits of the policy, what is Rudd doing announcing it in Cook? I keep getting told Hughes isn’t in play, so there is no way Cook is in play surely? I can think of a dozen seats in NSW that would make more sense for an announcement like this. Crazy times.

  81. Possum Comitatus said

    Ratsak, if the take up rate is very high, and encourages people to shift money from bright shiny things to savings accounts, the positive deflationary effects on the broader economy may outweigh the consequences of the the small increase in demand for housing – as long as the take up rate continues to remain high into the out years.

    Even dealing with supply side issues alone like local taxes and regulatory costs relating to development wont make much of a difference because we’ll still have the basic problem of too may people wanting to live close to too few city centres, and CGT reductions and negative gearing running together providing preferential tax treatment causing increased demand on the investor side for second hand housing.

    That said, announcing in Cook cracked me up.

    Ballsy.

  82. disenfranchised Gippslander said

    Grumps wrote:

    “If possible could we have a little hint of the age of your followers, (maybe small graph) sometimes us grumpy old bastards forget that the younger posters have not enjoyed the days of Wilson Tuckey spilling his guts on 4 Corners…”

    In case you are feeling lonely in your declining years compared to all the young whipper snappers, Grumps, I’ll simply say that I, for one, am old enough to have watched the LBJ / Askin “run the bastards over” motorcade pass through the streets of Sydney after coming out from watching “They’re a Weird Mob” at the movies!

    I patted Bert Evatt on the shoulder after a 1955 rally in Yarra in support of Jim Cairns!, and was introduced to Arthur Calwell at North Melbourne town hall on the night of the 1951(I think ) election. I nearly wet my nappies in joy.

  83. S said

    I have a Possum living in my roof cavity at the moment. It’s not you is it? (stealing my WiFi!!)

  84. Grumps said

    Thankyou to all those who have helped reduced the grump factor.

    Evan @57 enjoyed the idea of the Thatcherectomey. Any further suggestion on medical enhancements for politicians (lobotomy’s don’t count as they are standard procedure for entering politics)

    Obviously Ruddock has had a complete personality bypass and in other ethnic group would come close to being regarded as a Zombie (this is not a medical enhancement but obviously a virus induced from long exposure to the LIBERAL party).

    Obviously Abbott is suffering the initial symptoms of a new form of this strain.

    To Rod @64 (enjoyed the book never saw the movie) and Otiose @65 what a period to be part of, but BushFire Bill wins.

    Makes you wonder about those who are still standing today as DLP candidates ??!!

  85. Bushfire Bill said

    The assumption in publicising the gaffes of Garralous Garrett is that the punters are out there feeling sheepish about voting Labor and that they’re just looking for an excuse to say, “Well! That’s it then…” and herd back Howard’s way to vote for the Libs.

    It was the same thing with the way they went after Rudd throughout the year. They thought that Strippergate, or Anzac Gate or even Rudd’s childhood misrememberings would expose him and give the voters the excuse they were looking for to switch back.

    Going as far back as 2004, it did work with Latham. Handshake Gate, and Tassie Forest Gate were enough (so at least the folklore says) to turn the punters off Labor.

    But it did not work with Rudd, and I don’t think it will work with Garret.

    Millions are praying Labor isn’t really going to go ahead and be as boring as they say they are going to be and have assumed this from the start of the “Me Tooism”. Millions admire Garrett and treasure him as a national ikon, for better or worse. Other millions are sure that Garret is not going to be Environment minister after the election. And despite what Garrett may or may not have said to a couple of second rate media spruikers, millions more hate Howard and clearly want to see him off.

    Add all these up and you come close to a nett zero effect. Labor still suffers from a lack of self-confidence in this election. They can’t believe their eyes when the see the consistency of the poll results (count me among them). The slightest hint of trouble and they begin to moan and wail (yeah, me as well).

    But I think the voting public are – this time – being forgiving of Labor and its ups and downs and it’s the government they’re looking at harshly, waiting for gotchas.

  86. Ratsak said

    No arguments about the CGT (a negative ‘reform’ from Club Vermin if you ask me) and to a lesser extent negative gearing. But the issue with regulation of housing is massive. Zoning, planning codes, and the general BS involved with housing acts as a massive impediment to efficient operation of the housing market. Yes the fact more people want to live near the centres of cities, or by the water will make such areas more expensive. That’s basic economics, and it’s hard to see what any government could or should do to change that. But even out here in the burbs’ the planning laws mean that the only thing that makes economic sense to build mostly is macmansions. There are many more sensible housing types that would be cheaper to build and own that simply aren’t permitted by rediculously restrictive planning laws.

    Ballsy is one word for it.

  87. George said

    Poss: “That said, announcing in Cook cracked me up” – yeah, he’s playing with minds Poss, playing with their minds🙂

    BTW Poss, just watched you on Insiders (via the web vodcast on the ABC) – how did you manage to impersonate all three talking heads and get through some of the same wisdom you’ve been lavashing on us online out to TV land? Your IP traffic list must have some interesting line entries I’m sure…

    The best part on Insiders was when they replayed the (un)wisdom of Abbott and Downer with their predictions of how the polls would close dramatically come the election campaign – absolute crystal ball stuff that!

  88. Enemy Combatant said

    In news just to hand…..

    A male person of of Middle Eastern appearance has been held for questioning by ASIO operatives after attempting to sell Ostraki Coffe Beans outside a Perth Cafe.

  89. Frogg said

    I always wonder about the widespread cult of the narrowing, despite the lack of evidence in the data as analysed by the PC and others since …

    It is just because it is in the interest of all parties involved out there??
    – the ALP to minimise the in the bag feeling and keep their supporters on the ball
    – the Lib to retard the internal implosion to after the election and avoid a complete blow out
    – the MSMs to continue to sell their BS (Broad sheet but other interpretation of this acronym are acceptable…) as I suppose a election campaign and a close one is good for business.
    – the polling agencies to ensure that their polls are awaited with anxiety despite the fact that there is a 99% chance that the next one is going to deliver a BAU results within the MoE …

    It is hard to believe such a myth is still out there…

  90. imacca said

    I think that Rudds announcement on tax friendly savings vehicles for 1st home-buyers will go down well. In the short term money goes into the savings pool and that cant be inflationary. Biggest problem with housing affordability is the tax friendly treatment of investors who are NOT building new capacity, but thats not really something that a party looking to be elected will be running on is it. Maybe a term or so down the track they will have to look at that.

    I think the Garret thing will be run until something more juicy comes along, say about Nov 6th?? Face it, at the moment the Rattus Crew have nothing else, so they have to get as much mileage out of whatever they can get. They are lucky they have the likes of Piers A and Janet A to push this barrow till its wheel falls off. These two have no difficulty preaching to the converted, and the reply lists to their blogs give LNP staffers somewhere to feel at home i guess.

    ALP seems to be doing the right thing at the moment by just keeping on feeding out policy in their own time, and letting the LNP get more and more publicly panic stricken. What i’d really like to know is which of the LNP safe seats are going to swing big time, as i am sure some are.

    I’ll be on polling booths in a couple of electorates here in W.A. till mid arvo. Will be enormously annoyed if i miss Anthony Green’s first call of the result. I want to see the look on his face, Kerry O’Brien’s, Nick Minchin’s, and in a perfect world, Dolly Downer’s.

    Would be really nice if someone from the east can record this moment, bung it on You Tube, and post the link???

  91. Rod said

    Frogg writes:

    ” always wonder about the widespread cult of the narrowing, despite the lack of evidence in the data”

    You never know. With a bit of luck, as the wheels start falling off “The Narrowing” fantasies and those who depend on them, we might well see them replaced with a new set of of holy (and equally nonsensical) psephological lore about “The Widening”!

    With a little bit of “Reverse Shanahanian Manipulation” and selective use of the figures, I reckon I could come up with an appropriate justification for “The Widening” even now. All that would be needed then to turn it into holy writ would be to find the right media outlet and a few appropriately selected pollies to plug the idea often enough without getting distracted by the facts!😉

    Cheers

    Rod

  92. Why said

    Vote online – Who would you back for Bennelong?

    http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/

    Maxine needs our votes!

  93. George said

    Why, for what it’s worth, just voted for Maxine – but then I live in Melbourne😉 Don’t you just love online polls!

  94. Rod said

    George write:

    “Why, for what it’s worth, just voted for Maxine – but then I live in Melbourne Don’t you just love online polls!”

    Are you saying you only voted for Maxine once, George!

    Heck , those New Ltd tabloid online polls are all based on the idea that everyone will vote AT LEAST a couple of dozen times before they get tired of it! You go and refresh your browser a few times and make sure she gets a decent result! 😉

  95. Jimmy said

    Pos, is it possible that Cook will be a large swinger, given its solidly middle class nature and the middle class’s attraction to Rudd? This could be the reason for the announcement being held there.

  96. Kirribilli Removals said

    Janet Albrechtsen’s turgid tosh in the GG is a great read, except she left out the most likely scenario, namely that after November there will be another vacant seat on the ABC board…hers!

    She’ll have another old retired solicitor for company.

  97. Samuel K said

    Just saw the Howard monologue “Vote for Growth” ad spoken by a very very old looking J Howard… It’s hilarious. He looks slightly off camera as though he doesn’t realise which camera is recording him and rolls off the usual “anti-business union dominated blah blah blah… will be a disaster for our… blah blah blah… go for growth blah blah blah”. How on earth do they think that ad will cut through??

    Is it just me, or are the Liberals outspending Labor on advertising by a significant margin at this stage? Does that mean anything?

  98. Neil Cammack said

    Today’s Canberra Times reports Malcolm Mackerras saying that the Greens have a good chance of beating the incumbent Liberal Gary Humphries for the second ACT Senate seat.

    This call is based on a previously reported Morgan poll giving Labor 47%, Liberals 24% and Greens 17% + the Labor-Greens preference deal + the Democrats also preferencing the Greens; and Labor having scored top position on the Senate paper, followed by the Democrats and Greens.

    A quota in the ACT is 33.3%, so if the poll is reasonably accurate the Greens’ Kerrie Tucker is certainly within striking distance, and Humphries’ situation is not at all flash.

  99. It seems the Government is surreptioiusly sliding in some free government advertising under the guise of public interest.

    Just saw the Australian Security Infoline ad (or something) badged under “AFP”.

    Is there any longer any doubt that Commissioner Keelty (was my mouth out) is terminally politicised?

  100. Fed-up from Deakin said

    Howard has a history of running ideas up a flagpole to test public response (with complete AWA level deniability) usually via his stooge Senator Bill (all mouth and no brain) Heffernan.

    Perhaps this is a a ploy by the ALP to also play the same way. Maybe they are Laying a Foundation for a U Turn on the Me Too policies after they are elected.

  101. It's time said

    Aaaaah, Fed-up, I think you’re right. I couldn’t think of any logical reason why Howard has kept that homophobic misogynist in the party, except that it makes Howard himself look half reasonable.

  102. Stephen Tardrew said

    And what about the whacky brethren this guy Howard is really some weird mother. I think my country is going to crap when the media nonchalantly passes over this drivel. How the hell does he maintain an approval rating. Maybe I am to bloody old these people are absolute nuters so what the hell does this say about discrimination in the media and general populace. Any sane person would see Heffernan and Tuckey as liabilities. Howard would not know logic if he saw it passing bye. Getting annoyed with this addictive site as well.

  103. adam said

    poss, further to above at 6…

    the ranges were lovely and wet. wow. what a spectacle. what a smell…! lucky to get out before the 4wd got stuck in a mudbath…

    btw you might be interested to know that, thanks to my outback adventure, i now have a complete theory as to why howard is totally rooted. amusingly, it also ties into a favoured theory of the government gazette…

    simply put, you can toss out any issue you care to name – it all centres on lattes. funnily enough, everywhere i went in south australia, from bordertown to adelaide and right up to marree near lake eyre, i got a good latte. strong, well brewed, italian.

    goddamn, that means that there are hordes of chattering ****latte sippers!!!!**** right out there in the dust belt, in grey, sturt! it must be local customers, because damn if those teeny weeny desert cafes could survive on tourism alone… no wonder south australia is swinging like a dunny door in a dust storm… everyone’s caffeinated and therefore opinionated!

    ;^)

    on a serious note, so much postering in adelaide, liberals outnumbered 3:1 by labor. a prominent one nation campaign running the slogan “cut petrol tax” in city, but “put your family first” in country.

  104. Samuel K (97) saw that one today. Big mistake. Looking off camera while making a speech looks shifty and weird, if not downright dishonest. Looking off looks “off”. “Why can’t he look us in the eye?” He looks “not present”, which is accurate in a way, I suppose – as if he’s running his election campaign in a parallel universe. Which is accurate in a way.

    Similarly, he made a video in which he pretended he was being interviewed by an unseen, unnamed, unheard “interviewer” but clearly he was reading autocue or cuecards (written by Crosby/Textor, probably).

  105. Beach Ball said

    Kirribilli Removals, you’ve made some veiled comment about the missus of 2UE’s Half Price. To use a decade old quote “Please Explain?”

  106. George said

    from here:
    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22702557-952,00.html

    JOHN Howard’s re-election campaign has almost fatally stalled as the Coalition braces for the fallout from a looming interest rate rise.

    An exclusive Courier-Mail/Galaxy poll taken over the weekend shows the Coalition has not made up ground on Labor in the past two weeks, with the Prime Minister now running out of time to do so before voters head to the ballot box in 19 days.

    The poll showed the Coalition’s primary vote dropped slightly in the past fortnight, with the two-party-preferred vote now favouring Labor 54-46.

    The findings suggest the Coalition offensive against Kevin Rudd for “copycat” policies and last week’s major blunders by Labor’s high-profile environment spokesman Peter Garrett have failed to sway voters.

    Coalition strategists must now plot a revival through the gloom of a likely interest rate rise. The Reserve Bank board meets tomorrow and will announce its decision on Wednesday.

    Financial markets are already factoring in a rate rise, which would be the first during a federal election campaign and the sixth since Mr Howard won the 2004 election, campaigning on low rates.

    Mr Howard paved the way for a rise yesterday by blaming the drought and high world oil prices for extra inflationary pressures, but there was some good news for him in the Galaxy poll with the revelation few blame him for interest rates.

    Labor fired its first shot yesterday in a week that will be framed around the rate rise, unveiling a $600 million superannuation-like savings scheme to help young people gain a deposit for a home loan.

  107. codger said

    Yes George; ‘It’s oil, it’s the drought, butbutbutbarry, it’s not moi, me myself, yours truly, oh and us…& if you would be so kind…this is not pretty & we need to be mindful of that; for a second or two…only!
    Grumps, when my fiesty mother ex wraf finished with the spitfires pleasantries & ringbarked one Gorton, then Ed minister, I knew my life would never be the same…it hasn’t & frankly its all her fault…I’m dated as they say
    Machine gun but today…oh dear…sniff, ah mcmahon…the drawback.
    Gave this a run @ Planet Janet today; it seemed appropriate at the time:
    ‘Janet you were on the button some weeks back re the coalition’s ‘g’ spot…stick with it.’
    Don’t think it got a run. Just awful.

  108. Gecko said

    Biggest swing? Menzies.(c’mon you know its true!)

  109. Bert said

    Gecko Menzies will definitely have a very large swing not just because of it’s current member K. Andrews. It also has a very high proportion of Italian and Asian voters.

  110. Grumblebum said

    I see the Australian Stasi have started running their ‘Terrorist Hotline’ ads again. Authorised by M. Keelty. That’s on SBS Qld. (If they’ve been runnjing all the time, apologies. I watch very little advert TV.)

    BTW, I’m in Hawkie’s ‘Silly old bugger’ demographic’. i.e. An ancientr who still has enough wit to spot the evil machinations of incumbent politicians.

  111. booleanbach said

    Possum,
    Between you, pollbludger & mumble I wasn’t sure where to put this but it makes interesting reading.

    http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/kenneth-davidson/2007/11/04/1194117878684.html

    I have to say that websites such as this keep me sane and in touch with the very best of election commentary and I look forward to following all the way to the 24th and a Labour win.

  112. steve_e said

    Even Paul Kelly believes the end is nigh.

    “Howard and Peter Costello are staring down the gun barrel at defeat”.

    As CT have made it clear Economic Managment is all the LIBS have left to talk about. That this is now a push through issue is interesting as it forces attention on the history of interest rate increases, past promises tto keep rates low, a reviw of WorkChoices, etc.

    In WA employers are quitting AWAs for the Collective Agreements (non union). They seem to understand what Polls mean even if selected journos at the GG do not.

  113. Diana said

    As a nana I do like to follow the principle of ‘if you can’t say something nice, say nothing at all’ but these Liberal laddies do seem to need some constructive criticism, so the following is said with their best interests at heart.

    If you are going to lampoon a senior member of the Opposition and you also need to win votes in the 18-50 range, don’t pick on someone who is regarded by the majority of those voters as a Living National Treasure.

    If you’re going to open up the domestic lives of your leaders, think very closely about how the words and images will play out in the Real World. Did we need to know that Peter Costello actually practises those terribly droll remarks that interest absolutely no one outside the confines of Parliament House? Did we need to know that the PM’s wife finishes his sentences for him? And who was the clown who let the cameras catch the pages containing images of the Federal Cabinet on the PM’s fridge door? If they don’t know what real people tack onto their fridge doors, well it’s not for me to enlighten them.

    For some reason George Megalogenis makes far more sense outside the confines of his blog in the Oz. It’s worth a listen to his comments on Radio National Life Matters this morning.

  114. Kirribilli Removals said

    Beach Ball, as was reported on Pollbludger and even in today’s SMH, the wife of “Half Price” is a PR hack for Joe Hockey. So, he would ‘spin’ Garrett’s off the cuff remark as the biggest thing since, well Watergate, wouldn’t he?

    It’s comic to watch the MSM feed the tripe to the fishes. What a godawful bunch they are and what a tawdry process politics has become.

  115. TMP said

    Why aren’t the MSM highlighting the continued rehashing of policies that were released previously. We are being conned by the Liberal party, being pork barrelled in marginal seats with money that was promised previously and reneged upon. If we are to be pork barrelled at least they should be using new money and not previously promised money that they conveniently didn’t spend on the things they promised last time.

    How are the public to believe the current promises and be able to tell ‘core’ and ‘non-core’ promises if the MSM don’t highlight the undelivered ones.

  116. Beach Ball said

    Thanks for that KR. Should make for an interesting episode of Media Watch tonight.

  117. adrian said

    If Media Watch had the courage to actually investigate something of real substance, particularly during an election campaign. The program is so obsessed with the trivial and inconsequential, those in charge seem to have forgotten its original mission.
    I hope I’m wrong, but I can’t see it happening.

  118. Mr Denmore said

    I’m not sure the media would, could, or should make play of Steve Price’s wife’s Liberal Party connections, assuming that story is true.

    If the media was to play that game, it would have been questioning the legitimacy of Maxine Mckew hosting ABC shows for all those years when her husband was the Labor Party president.

    This is not to deny that Steve Price is an ignorant, bigoted and under-educated fool. But if we start judging people by their spousal connections, we open up a can of worms.

  119. Bert said

    If the neocons and Fox TV in the USA could turn the last presidential runner against JW Bush (a known shirker) ie John Cary who served for two terms in Vietnam and was awarded several bravery awards into a coward and a shirker by misleading ads by people who claimed they were there, then anything is possible.

    Never forget these are the sorts of people that think they are born to rule. What passes for the libs is vainly trying to do the equivalent. Fortunately our education system has not failed as systemically as the one in the US has. YET!

    Bert

  120. Lomandra said

    Below is an email I’ve just sent out to my contacts. If you’re in agreement with its sentiment, please cut and paste the text and send it on!
    ____________________

    If, like me, you were planning on putting the Climate Change Coalition high up on your Senate vote, you might want to think again. Now the parties have all indicated their preference deals, it’s emerged that the Climate Change Coalition has some very ugly bedfellows.

    This is what William Bowe at the politics blog Poll Bludger writes:

    “[T]he Climate Change Coalition … has put the Fishing Party higher than everybody except the Democrats and What Women Want. One wonders how those taken in by the Climate Change Coalition brand name would feel if they knew they were voting against the extension of marine parks. There is a very real chance they will end up finding out the hard way – the Fishing Party has been tightly preferenced by a range of right-wing micro parties as well as Family First, which also has them ahead of the CDP. When all these votes are added together, it’s entirely possible that the Greens will be overtaken by the Fishing Party’s Garth Bridge. Throw a Coalition surplus into the mix, and the Fishing Party could very well win a seat that would otherwise have gone to the Greens. I hope Patrice Newell has a good time explaining that one to her fellow travellers on the arts-luvvie cocktail party circuit. And I say all that before I’ve even gotten around to considering the situation in Queensland, where the Climate Change Coalition has put Pauline Hanson ahead of Labor.”

    http://www.pollbludger.com/676

    On its website, the Fishing Party makes it clear that they’re global warming deniers! http://www.thefishingparty.info/wst_page8.html

    If this disgusts you as much as it disgusts me, you might like to contact the Climate Change Coalition and let them know exactly why you won’t be voting for them.

    Their contact details:

    You can contact the Climate Change Coalition on their website at http://climatechangecoalition.com.au/ho … s.html#c72 , by phone on 02 4998 6286 or by mail at PO Box 1008 CESSNOCK WEST NEW 2325.

    Can I also suggest to you that you forward this email to like-minded souls who abhor this sort of Machiavellian and unscrupulous dealing?

    Don’t let them get away with this swindle!

    Thanks.

  121. Lomandra said

    Ack, that url for the Climate Change Coalition contact form didn’t work. It is:

    http://climatechangecoalition.com.au/home/contact-us.html#c72

  122. paulyt said

    Long time reader, first time poster.

    I think some of the 3.6% swing towards the Liberals and the 4.3% swing to The Greens in Chifley last election is going to swing back to Labor and Price will get around 59-60% of the primary vote. Not that it really matters how the swing goes because Labor currently holds it by 12%. Having said that, it seems as though the Liberals scare campaign might be working around here. I had a mate ask me “IF Labor wins, won’t we go into a recession?”

    Oh by the way, I’ve invited candidates from about 6 parties to be guest bloggers on my blog. Let’s see if anybody accepts it. So far the ALP and bob Brown have said they’re too busy. Being a carer I hope Mary Lou from the Carer’s Alliance accept.

  123. Cazza said

    Love your work!

    Can you do some analysis of the latest Newspolling in 18 marginal seats http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-5nov.pdf. Based on very little knowledge and minimal understanding, I’ve compared the state by state swing with the swings for seats graphs you’ve got on your site and concluded the following:

    4.7% swing in NSW gives 6 seats
    4% in Victoria gives 0 seats
    8% in both QLD and SA give 7 and 5 seats respectively.

    Total = 18 seats (= 100% of the marginals)

    Either I’ve completely misunderstood the picture or something very fishy with the MSM’s analysis (not entirely unusual I know).

    Thanks Possum

  124. Peter Fuller said

    Bert & Gecko,
    As a long-suffering Menzies’ resident and “true believer”, I hope that you’re right, although I’m sceptical.
    A couple of straws in the wind. Andrews is undoubtedly scared (as is Tony Smith in Casey). Largely I attribute that to the fact that they have so much at stake, as well as that they’re not used to finding themselves in a contest.
    Your point about the Asian component of Menzies is relevant, although I’m not sure how effectively politicised (or even enrolled, for that matter) they might be. My sense is that the Italians and Greeks in the electorate are very much those who’ve “done well”, and identify with middle-class Anglo aspirations, so I’m not sure they will be a huge factor in the swing. There’s also a mosque in East Doncaster, and a synagogue in Doncaster.
    The wild card is that Dr. Philip Nitschke is running again as an Independent, and is campaigning quite strongly. He secured 9% (prefs. 60-40 to Labor) of the vote in 1998, when he targetted KA deliberately because of his role in over-turning the Northern Territory right to die legislation.
    The only other noteworthy characteristic of Menzies is that it produced the 5th highest vote of Government held-seats for the Republic, which Peter Brent has suggested might be a proxy for Liberal leafiness, and therefore potential for a stronger than average anti-Howard swing.

  125. John said

    Just some anecdotal evidence re the donkey vote mentioned in #53 above – I once scrutineered for the ALP at a state election in a seat with 7 candidates. I watched over 900 ballot papers be counted, and there were just 2 that numbered all the candidates in order of 1 through to 7.

    I would be very surprised if the top spot on the ballot paper is worth 1%.

    Is it actually possible to accurately measure this scientifically?

  126. Peter Fuller said

    Cazza,
    Shanahan’s optimistic version of the Newspoll marginal seats’ figures depends on him assuming that the outcome is the poll swing minus the MOE. E.g. he’s assuming that the Victorian swing of the poll, 7.3% will result in a swing of 7.3-3.5 = 3.8, ergo, no Labor gains in Victoria.
    Peter Brent has pointed out that Dennis’ “worst-case scenario” is in reality the mid-case scenario for the Government. It is actually a direct figure from the poll, if the poll’s revealed swings are plugged directly into the pendulum for each State. Brent goes on to point out that the true worst-case for the Government, the Newspoll figures plus the MOE is a loss of 45 seats!
    I can’t do a thread direction for you, but it’s in the Mumble site at 3 November under the heading “Newspoll in the Marginals”.

  127. Cazza said

    Thanks Peter

    You wonder how Dennis et al will be able to hold their heads up when this is all over.

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