Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

SA and the Census Data

Posted by Possum Comitatus on November 5, 2007

SA and the Census Data

Continuing on with our series of combining the Crosby Textor Oztrack 33 swings to the demographics of individual electorates by State, today we’ll have a look at little old South Australia.

So first up, we better have a look what Crosby Textor had to say about the swings in SA:

oztrack33sa.jpg

The big demographic swingers in South Oz apart from parents were part-time workers, the 18-24 age group and the 35-49 age group.

So let’s have a look at how these play out seat by seat, and we’ll use the following:

“18-24” is the number of 18-24 year olds in the seat as a proportion of all people in the electorate aged 18 and over.

“34-49” is the number of 34-49 year olds in the seat as a proportion of all people in the electorate aged 18 and over.

“PTW” is the number of part- time workers as are a proportion of all people in the electorate aged 18 and over.

“HA” is the percentage of the median household income that would be required to make the median home loan repayment for the electorate. This gives us a measure on housing affordability.

“LwUb” measures the number of Lower White/Upper Blue collar workers in the electorate as a proportion of all people in the electorate aged 18 and over. This is the demographic that is having the largest negative experience of Workchoices.

SLA1+ and SLA5+ are the proportions of the electorate that lived in a different statistical local area 1 year before the 2006 Census and 5 years before the 2006 Census. This gives us a bit of an idea of the overall population change of each electorate.

Again, we will just look at the Coalition held seats, and the data is based on the current electoral redistribution.

The current margins of the seat are:
Barker (19.9%), Boothby (5.4%), Grey (13.8%), Kingston (0.1%), Makin (0.9%), Mayo (13.6%), Sturt (6.8%), Wakefield (0.7%)

Seat 18-24 35-49 PTW HA LwUb SLA1+ SLA5+
Barker 9.77 29.54 18.44 27.21 24.49 7.11 20.47
Boothby 11.97 26.09 20.33 29.38 24.49 10.65 28.88
Grey 9.4 28.73 16.99 25.88 22.64 7.1 19.94
Kingston 12.49 29.38 20.26 27.76 31.84 9.88 27.07
Makin 12.47 29.14 19.36 25.46 33.47 8.97 26.08
Mayo 9.81 30.06 22.12 27.11 26.62 8.67 27.63
Sturt 12 26.48 18.76 30.07 24.57 10.79 28.59
Wakefield 12.7 30.3 17.02 29.22 26.53 10.24 28.6
SA Average 11.92 28.29 18.64 28.71 26.31 10.13 27.31

What strikes me about the Coalition held seats in SA is the remarkable blandness of them all. They have the same rough proportions for everything.

The young population is all within 3%, the 35-49’s all within 4%, Part time workers all within 5%, housing affordability all within 5%, Lower White/Upper Blue we finally have a bit of variation at 11% but this wasn’t designated as a key demographic in South Australia by CT. Everything seems to be all very uniform.

So let’s rank them now in terms of which seats would be more likely to swing based on known demographic issues. What we’ll do is take the difference between each measure and the State average. That way, those seats with a higher proportion of swinging groups will have a positive rating, and those with a smaller proportion of swinging groups will have a negative rating. Then we’ll add all the ratings (what are merely the individual differences from the State averages) together and see which seat would be expected to swing the most.

Seat PT diff HA diff 18-24 diff LwUb diff 35-49 diff Total
Kingston

1.62

-0.95

0.57

5.53

1.09

7.86

Makin

0.72

-3.25

0.55

7.16

0.85

6.03

Wakefield

-1.62

0.51

0.78

0.22

2.01

1.9

Mayo

3.48

-1.6

-2.11

0.31

1.77

1.85

Boothby

1.69

0.67

0.05

-1.82

-2.2

-1.61

Sturt

0.12

1.36

0.08

-1.74

-1.81

-1.99

Barker

-0.2

-1.5

-2.15

-1.82

1.25

-4.42

Grey

-1.65

-2.83

-2.52

-3.67

0.44

-10.23

This suggests that Kingston should swing the most based on demographics, while Grey should swing the least based on these demographics. However, this flies in the face of what we’ve heard about in places like Grey, where a large swing seems to on.

Unlike QLD where the swinging demographics of the CT research explained a lot of what we’ve been seeing and hearing about on the ground, in SA it explains either very little at all and local issues are a large player, or the swing in SA is very uniform.

If it’s uniform, and with a 12.4% swing on at the moment according to last big Newspoll, the member for Barker might be the only one breathing easy (although I’d imagine Dolly Downer is as safe as houses as well).

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14 Responses to “SA and the Census Data”

  1. kwoff.com said

    SA and the Census Data « Possums Pollytics

    SA and the Census Data

    Continuing on with our series of combining the Crosby Textor Oztrack 33 swings to the demographics of individual electorates by State, today we’ll have a look at little old South Australia.

    So first up, we better have a look …

  2. SwingingVoter said

    “What strikes me about the Coalition held seats in SA is the remarkable blandness of them all….”

    LOL.

    Best possum quote ever!

  3. happy chap from Griffith said

    thanks Poss, this is interesting stuff.

    As an aside, I was up fishing at Bribie Island (part of Mal Brough’s electorate of Longman) on the weekend and boy are the libs are spending up big time there!! Not sure if I’ve ever seen so many signs! Though of course none of these featured Howard…

    Also, the Oz/Dennis has recently been drawing on the Newspoll marginals poll to suggest Howard is clawing back in the marginals. Is there a previous marginal seat survey like this they’ve done that I haven’t seen? If not, how the hell can they be drawing inference about shifts in support when they’ve only go cross-sectional marginals data? Not even Dennis would be stupid enough to try and compare marginal seat figures with those of national/state averages…would he? That’s why they’re marginal…they have naturally smaller margins…

  4. Enemy Combatant said

    “What strikes me about the Coalition held seats in SA is the remarkable blandness of them all.”

    Dolly’ll be cut when this gets back.

  5. steve_e said

    What this shows is a focus on “marginal” seats leaves open those seats where a large swing can also bring a change. You can’t defend all your seats, a firewall does not stop the fire, it limits the damage.

    On the evening of 24/11, a seat won is a seat won.

    Who would have thought Grey was vulnerable with a > 13% swing required? Kingston, Wakefield and Makin were expected to change with margins of less than 1%.

    Perhaps JWH has in fact given up hope in SA.

    It is a real pity about Mayo as this is one for the true believers.

  6. George said

    steve_e “Perhaps JWH has in fact given up hope in SA”… in fact you’re right there. I have information from a friend in the Liberal party and this is indeed the case.

  7. happy chap from Griffith said

    Don’t forget that Downer has a two term strategy for SA. Lose the federal election and then storm the barricades in the next state election!

  8. I suspect you’d get that “blandness” in all the smaller states. In Perth as in Adelaide, working class/migrant areas aren’t big enough to cover entire electorates, so you end up with more marginal mixed seats. Stirling, for example, includes Perth’s equivalent of Sydney’s northern suburbs along with Balga and Mirrabooka, which are Perth’s equivalent of Macquarie Fields.

  9. HarryH said

    i admire your courage Possum.

    trying to read the mind of South Australians….hmmm…no thanks.

    who knows what swirls around up there.

    j/k……maybe

  10. The Intellectual Bogan said

    Further to William Bowe’s comment at 8, you also get some staggeringly diverse and geographically huge electorates.

    To take Pearce as an example, it covers the heavily mortgaged Perth suburbs of Swan View and Ellenbrook, the domains of successful business people with the Vines, tha “Sea Change” communities up the coast to Lancelin, the uncompromisingly rural areas south to Narrogin, the increasingly gentrified northern Avon Valley, depressed, post industrial Wundowie and the various Great Eastern Highway settlements with their resident hippies of varying degrees of wealth.

    How the h*ll can you make sense of that lot on a seat-wide basis?

    It’s not marginal, of course, although, had it not gone so far backwards in the Latham debacle (mortgagees perhaps) it might be within striking distance of an ALP landslide.

    Assuming a Coalition loss but Judy Moylan’s survival, I can see her gaining a place in the shadow cabinet of a decimated Liberal party. Previous cabinet experience and her principaled stand on asylum seekers (to differentiate her from her colleagues) might well be a plus under the circumstances. I could live with that as, even to a lefty like me, she’s one of the less offensive govt members at the moment.

    I still won’t be voting for her though.

  11. K Jin said

    W Bowe RIP To even be in theb same self loathing room as Christain Kerr
    http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/gorilla-slaughter-sparks-campaign/2007/11/05/1194117949077.html

  12. Lynda Hopgood said

    As an unfortunate resident of Mayo, I’d like to daydream about Dolly losing the seat.

    Not on the cards this time, sadly, but I think the swing will surprise him.

  13. SugarGlider said

    Possum,
    Your analysis doesn’t cover the seat of Hindmarsh, won by Labor from the retiring Chris Gallus in 2004 with about 100 votes, so high on the marginal list.

  14. SugarGlider said

    Oops. Ignore my previous comment, I’ve just reread this article more closely and realised my mistake.

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