Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

Newspoll Monday

Posted by Possum Comitatus on November 12, 2007

Newspoll comes a day early this week, and certainly explains the movement in the betting markets last night.

But before we get into the gory details, it might be a good idea to jump in the wayback machine and revisit last week’s poll.

Today we have the best Newspoll for the government since November, even if it’s only due to a bit of minor party preference noise, but as far as the image goes – a good poll is a good poll is a good poll.

Ordinarily, the popular media outlets would have a couple of stories splashed around hailing a comeback, the not so popular media outlets would probably be going hysterical and the nightly news would lead with the story; Laurie Oakes telling Nine viewers in tones of gravitas that the election is now a competition.

But this is no ordinary week.

Today’s papers are all about the ponies, tonight’s news will be about them as well, Wednesday’s papers will be all about the ponies and interest rates, Wednesday night’s news will probably be all about an interest rate rise, Thursdays papers will certainly be – and then the media attention and narrative turns to the first polls after the rate rise (assuming there is one).

Where does the best poll for the government in 12 months fit into that cycle? Well, it doesn’t. Not as far as normal people are concerned. But the particularly nasty piece of bad luck in this sequence of unfortunate events for the government is what is likely to come next.

The headline two-party preferred result of Newspoll has been bouncing around an awful lot lately – it’s almost become the great oscillator.

This week’s Newspoll figures have the problem of slightly undervaluing the preference flows the ALP receives from the minor parties, meaning that it’s more likely than not that the next Newspoll will probably fix that up. These slight rounding problems and sampling volatility of the minor parties all come out in the wash over a few polls.

When you combine that with the ALP primary looking rock solid at 47/48, it’s almost expected that in the next poll or two, the two party preferred headline figure will show the ALP increasing its lead – simply as a result of the high ALP primary vote combining with this minor party sampling error and rounding issues.

But should that happen, the headlines will undoubtedly scream “Interest Rate Backlash!” as some new 55/45 poll shows the ALP gaining a two point lead from the previous poll, the best poll the government had enjoyed for 12 months, but one which no-one paid attention to because the ponies were on.

So what do we get?

That exact thing happening.

ALP leads 48/40 on primaries for a 55/45 two party preferred lead.

And the headlines?

Rate hike hurt Coalition

Rate rise hits Howard

…etc etc

If only this weeks Lotto numbers were that easy. The graphic for the TPP looks like this:

newspollstppnov121.jpg

The primaries look like this (thanks to George)

newspollprimsnov12.png

And again, for the umpteenth week running it’s business as usual. There doesn’t appear to be any discernible interest rate effect flowing through yet as this 55/45 is what would have been expected to occur anyway this week or next, since the last result was caused by minor party noise.

On a different note, has anyone else noticed that Glen Milne is starting to sound like the official historian for the Labor Party social pages? We’ll have to start calling him Comrade Confidential pretty soon.

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56 Responses to “Newspoll Monday”

  1. kwoff.com said

    Newspoll Monday « Possums Pollytics

    Newspoll comes a day early this week, and certainly explains the movement in the betting markets last night.

    But before we get into the gory details, it might be a good idea to jump in the wayback machine and revisit last week’s poll.

  2. smssiva said

    Poss
    You are great. By the way have you noticed that there is an advertisement about National Security by AFP in the pay channels last week. Starts with National Security and then talks about reporting suspicious peopel. Very suspicious ad I would have to say.

  3. Kate Ellis for PM said

    One of the few voices of reason you are Possum. It is a joy to read your analysis. Thank you (also to George).

  4. NB said

    Poss.

    Right on the money as always. Sure you wouldn’t hazard a guess at this weeks lotto numbers?

  5. Rog said

    The Coalition is running advertising supporting McArthur in Corangimite (on the far side of Geelong) – only the adverts are being broadcast all over Melbourne as well, in prime time, and will probably be costing them a packet. I’m sure most Melbournians will be saying “Corangiwhere?”. Looks a bit desperate….

  6. nomad3 said

    Possum, Gerard Henderson has a history of not making any prediction at all then loves to criticise those who make wrong perdicitions after the poll . Check this out :
    http://www.mumble.com.au

    I am tipping Labour 95 – 55 or thereabouts …would you or ony other blogger out there care to make a prediction ?..maybe we could offer a prize for the correct prediction.

  7. George said

    Kate Ellis write: “One of the few voices of reason you are Possum. It is a joy to read your analysis. Thank you (also to George)”

    Kate, no need to thank me – Poss is the genius here… dare I say SUPER genius! Go the Poss!

  8. jasmine_Anadyr said

    My 86 seat prediction from some months ago on Bryan’s site is looking very very conservative🙂

  9. imacca said

    So, either there is no bounce or dead cat splat going to happen related to interest rates, or, there is a time lag between the RBA’s decision and reaction to it showing in the polls, even in the compressed / frantic polling environment of the election campaign.

    The horror scenario for the LNP (and yes its only me dreaming) would be if Morgans 62/38 is foreshadowing a trend yet to be seen in the other polls, rather than being an out lier?? (rubs hands together and laughs like madman HAHAHAHAHA!!!)

    Given that the rate rise is one of the two really significant events of the campaign so far, we may look back on this in three weeks time as further evidence to support the contention that the election campaign does not matter. That people made up their minds months ago and are sticking with it. That should bury this idea of “Soft Voters” and particularly the “Is the Country headed in the Right Direction” twaddle.

  10. nomad3 said

    Prediction Status So Far

    Nomad3 : 95 – 55 (favoring ALP)
    Jasmine_anadyr 86 – 64 (favoring ALP)

    Any more takers ?

  11. George said

    jasmine_Anadyr @ 8, I’m up on Bryan’s site with a prediction of 87 seats – like you say, that’s looking pretty good now.

  12. smssiva @ 2

    Hmmm, that could be interesting. This is the week for a dog whistle. It’s certainly worth keeping a watchful eye out.

    imacca

    You may be dreaming, but maybe not. If there are no other cut through issues then it ain’t going the other way, so here’s hoping.

  13. George said

    imacca, the final hurdle for Labor is today – if we can get through Howard’s pork-a-minute announcements today, and Rudd delivers a strong launch in the week, we are home and hosed. And the 62/38 becoming a reality? well… that, will mean I’ll run through the streets naked on the night!

  14. canberra boy said

    What I’m really waiting to see is the Newspoll State breakdowns – I found the much-reduced swings in Vic and NSW rather hard to believe last time.

  15. Blackburn Bob said

    I live in Deakin and we had an ad on primetime for Phil Baressi. This might seem a shot gun approach but I think they do a series of individual seat ads, and the metropolitan TV markets being what they that means that most of them will be seen by people who can’t vote for that candidate. Much easier in the country where the stations are more local. Not that Phil’s more targetted advertising is getting much of a run around my place. Every week my wife and myself get a posted letter from the ‘Office of Phil Baressi’, and every week they go straight in the recycling.

    Love the site Possum, and while the hubbub will probably die down after the election, I would love it if you did some more detailed (Yes, MORE) pieces with a longer lead time explaining why you chose particular tests, and exactly how you performed the analysis. Like many people I am numerate and have basic statistics, but regression seems as much an art as a science and this site could be a great tutorial. Then, next election you could have a body of people to do grunt work and chase rabbits down holes.

  16. Anthony F said

    I say 88 ALP, 60 LNP and 2 independents. Outside chance of 3 independents but Noel Brunning appears to have lost momentum a bit in Forrest.

  17. Friends @8 & 12:

    I put in for 96 at Bryan’s site a while back. Perhaps a little optimistic, but I am still happy with it…

  18. nomad3 said

    Status so far

    Nomad3 : 95 – 55 favoring ALP)
    Jasmine_anadyr 86 – 64 (favoring ALP)
    Anthony F 88 – 60 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)
    Friends @8 &12 96 – 54 (favoring ALP

  19. Dangerous said

    I also am down at PB for 96 seats to Labor…

  20. George said

    18 – you forgot me, 87 seats

  21. Geoff D said

    Quick technical question on polling. Do polling organizations check on whether those polled are citizens and can vote? If they do not, would this produce an error in predicting election results in individual seats? I expect any error would be small overall although not equal in all electorates.

    Please note I am not trying to cast doubt on the current polls. Labor will win by the length of the straight. 90/58/2

  22. nomad3 said

    Nomad3 : 95 – 55 favoring ALP)
    Jasmine_anadyr 86 – 64 (favoring ALP)
    Anthony F 88 – 60 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)
    Friends @8 &12 96 – 54 (favoring ALP
    Dangerous 87 – 63 (favoring ALP)
    George 87 – 63 (favroing ALP

  23. nomad3 said

    Status so Far :

    Nomad3 : 95 – 55 favoring ALP)
    Jasmine_anadyr 86 – 64 (favoring ALP)
    Anthony F 88 – 60 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)
    Friends @8 &12 96 – 54 (favoring ALP
    Dangerous 87 – 63 (favoring ALP)
    George 87 – 63 (favoring ALP)
    Geoff D 90 – 58 + 2 ind (favoring ALP)

  24. Dangerous said

    Quick correction nomad3…
    Friends @8 &12 is actually Peter J Nicol

    And you’ve confused me with George – I was down for 96/52/2

  25. dany le roux said

    Possum are you going to do this again:take the worst results for Labor of the primaries before rounding and distribute the preferences 75% to ALP for the Greens and 50% to the ALP for the others and then round it, to get 55 TPP for Labor and repeat the process for the best primary vote for Labor to get 56 TPP?
    Isn’t there a hint of a reaction to the rise in interest rates here?

  26. nomad3 said

    Apologies for those concerned.. its still monday morning and I am up to my backside in System Specs & File layouts

    Nomad3 : 95 – 55 favoring ALP)
    Jasmine_anadyr 86 – 64 (favoring ALP)
    Anthony F 88 – 60 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)
    Peter J Nicol 96 – 54 (favoring ALP)
    Dangerous 96 – 52 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)
    George 87 – 63 (favoring ALP)
    Geoff D 90 – 58 + 2 ind (favoring ALP)

  27. wantok said

    I’m down for 98 seats to Labor at Bryan’s site – and I’m still comfortable with that punt.

  28. Possum Comitatus said

    Might be dany – but it’s too small so we cant tell because of the size of possible sampling error

  29. Hemingway said

    76 ALP, 72 Coalition: 73, 2 Ind

    My basis for this is huge Team Howard bribing of marginals, which an Opposition could never match. This was stressed today by Labor Senate Candidate, Arbib, on Skynews “Agenda” program. Sure, he wanted to avoid seeming over-confident, but put forward a strong case why it will a extremely close in the marginals due to wild variations in the swing from region to region, as it was in 1998 when Beazley won nearly 52% of national vote.

  30. Kate Ellis for PM said

    ALP 89

  31. Hemingway said

    Sorry, don’t know where the 73 came from!
    that’s Coaliton 72

  32. Jess said

    While were talking numbers… anyone care to predict the first seat to fall to Labor on the night – I would have said Bonner or Moreton but with no daylight savings in Qld it will have to be elsewhere… maybe Lindsay or Braddon? Any others like to predict? How early will Antony Green call it… I just can’t wait!!!

  33. nomad3 said

    Hemingway … you seem to be out on your own, but I can understand your reasoning, question is ..will it resonate come election day.

    No prediction from Poss yet ..Poss how bout it?

    Status Report :

    Nomad3 : 95 – 55 (favoring ALP)
    Jasmine_anadyr 86 – 64 (favoring ALP)
    Anthony F 88 – 60 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)
    Peter J Nicol 96 – 54 (favoring ALP)
    Dangerous 96 – 52 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)
    George 87 – 63 (favoring ALP)
    Geoff D 90 – 58 + 2 ind (favoring ALP)
    Wantok 98 – 52 (favoring ALP)
    Hemingway 76 – 72 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)
    Kate Ellis for PM 89 + 61 (favoring ALP)

  34. Ratsak said

    Bass will be the first seat Antony calls – about 6:40

  35. I put 90-58-2 seats in at PB about 8 weeks ago and I’ll stick by it. Even though I get really nervous about counting chickens even at this late stage.

    And yes. Bass first.

  36. Rex said

    Did anyone notice on the hard paper copy of the Oz, how one almost had to use a microsope to see the “Newspoll” reference on the front page?! I think Dennis is hoping that if he shrinks the text size, the result will go away! If next week’s Newspoll is similar or higher for Labor, look out for Coalition backbenchers breaking ranks…

  37. Hemingway said

    Thanks, Nomad, hope I’m being overly cautious, but also taking into account the frequent WIN tv adverts for a local region marginal Lib incumbent here.
    Absolutely no mention of Howard or Costello, but still shamelessly listing all the infrastructure bribes which this Lib has “secured” for his electorate. The ads are very polished, and I understand this is the norm throughout all marginals. As Piers Hackerman boasted yesterday on “Insiders”: “Well, all politics is local!”

  38. Peachy said

    Hi Possum,

    just wondering if you have any insight into how much the advertising campaign in the last 2 weeks is capable of swinging the vote? My impression from the last 2 elections is that Labor has been travelling ok, then has been hammered by the negative ads in the last 2 weeks. Is there any poll data to support this? How much have they moved to vote by?

    Thanks for providing such a brilliant site!

  39. nomad3 said

    I forgot to mention the prize for the winner :

    Invite all your fellow bloggers to a night out at your favorite restaurant, where you get to host the evening, guests of honour will include Piers Ackerman, & Michael Kroger,

    Status Report :

    Nomad3 : 95 – 55 (favoring ALP)
    Jasmine_anadyr 86 – 64 (favoring ALP)
    Anthony F 88 – 60 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)
    Peter J Nicol 96 – 54 (favoring ALP)
    Dangerous 96 – 52 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)
    George 87 – 63 (favoring ALP)
    Geoff D 90 – 58 + 2 ind (favoring ALP)
    Wantok 98 – 52 (favoring ALP)
    Hemingway 76 – 72 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)
    Kate Ellis for PM 89 + 61 (favoring ALP)
    Robert Beswick 90 – 58 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)

  40. Goodbye Mr Thatcher said

    40 – Only if (C)Ack and Krog are the serving lackeys – even then I’d have trouble keeping my dinner down.

  41. Betamax said

    Great blog today — you are indeed the Possmaster General.

    Put me down for 78 (ALP), 70 (Coa), 2 Inds.

  42. nomad3 said

    Still no prediction from Poss !!!

    Status Report :

    Nomad3 : 95 – 55 (favoring ALP)
    Jasmine_anadyr 86 – 64 (favoring ALP)
    Anthony F 88 – 60 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)
    Peter J Nicol 96 – 54 (favoring ALP)
    Dangerous 96 – 52 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)
    George 87 – 63 (favoring ALP)
    Geoff D 90 – 58 + 2 ind (favoring ALP)
    Wantok 98 – 52 (favoring ALP)
    Hemingway 76 – 72 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)
    Kate Ellis for PM 89 + 61 (favoring ALP)
    Robert Beswick 90 – 58 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)
    Betamax 78 – 70 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)

  43. It's time said

    With a cricketing theme in mind:

    ALP 87 Coalition 61 Ind 2

    First wicket to fall: Bass

    And the captain to be clean bowled in his last innnings by a girlie underarmer.

  44. nomad3 said

    I take it noone is going to stick their neck out and back el-rodente (notice the deliberate use of lower case lettering)

    Status Report :

    Nomad3 : 95 – 55 (favoring ALP)
    Jasmine_anadyr 86 – 64 (favoring ALP)
    Anthony F 88 – 60 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)
    Peter J Nicol 96 – 54 (favoring ALP)
    Dangerous 96 – 52 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)
    George 87 – 63 (favoring ALP)
    Geoff D 90 – 58 + 2 ind (favoring ALP)
    Wantok 98 – 52 (favoring ALP)
    Hemingway 76 – 72 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)
    Kate Ellis for PM 89 + 61 (favoring ALP)
    Robert Beswick 90 – 58 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)
    Betamax 78 – 70 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)
    Its Time 87 – 61 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)

  45. sydgal said

    I’m being a pessimist and saying that Howard will win despite all the polls. I’m a labor supporter but i remember what happened with Beazley. Labor will win the popular vote but Howard will win the marginals.

    I reckon the NLP by 6 seats.

    I sure hope I’m wrong.

  46. sydgal said

    I should add I’m a newbie poster but have been reading this site for a long time.

  47. SJP said

    Labor will win at least 22 seats. Put me down for 82-66+ 2Ind (favouring ALP). I hope that its double that but after 2004, I be happy for ANY Labor win.

  48. bushhunter said

    91 – 57 – 2

  49. smssiva said

    Peachy – 38
    Given below are the changes in the last two weeks in the last two elections and the current status. I cannot see any change outside the MOE. All the anecdotal evidence is that Latham lost it in the last two weeks. Did not happen that way. I also assume that the advertising would be on a similar scale to the last elections.

    2-4 11/01 7-8 11/01 Actual 10/11/01 1-3/10/04 6-7/10/04 Actual 9/10/04 9-11/11/07
    LIBERAL 40 41 37.4 42 41 40.8 36
    NATIONALS 5 5 5.7 4 4 5.9 4
    COALITION 45 46 43.1 46 45 46.7 40
    ALP 39.5 38.5 37.8 39 39 37.6 48
    DEMOCRATS 6 5.5 5.4 1 1
    GREENS 2.5 4 5 7 7 7.2 6
    PAULINE HANSON / ONE NATION 3 3 4.3 @ 1
    OTHERS 4 3 4.4 7 7 8.5 6

  50. nomad3 said

    SYDGAL ..you are out on your own .. and still no prediction from POSS … POSS !!! POSS !!! you there ? !!!

    Status Report :

    Nomad3 : 95 – 55 (favoring ALP)
    Jasmine_anadyr 86 – 64 (favoring ALP)
    Anthony F 88 – 60 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)
    Peter J Nicol 96 – 54 (favoring ALP)
    Dangerous 96 – 52 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)
    George 87 – 63 (favoring ALP)
    Geoff D 90 – 58 + 2 ind (favoring ALP)
    Wantok 98 – 52 (favoring ALP)
    Hemingway 76 – 72 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)
    Kate Ellis for PM 89 + 61 (favoring ALP)
    Robert Beswick 90 – 58 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)
    Betamax 78 – 70 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)
    Its Time 87 – 61 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)

    SYDGAL 78 – 72 (favoring LNP)

    SJP 82-66+ 2 Ind (favouring ALP)
    Bushhunter 91 – 57 + 2 Ind (favoring ALP)

  51. marty said

    I think ALP by 79-69 with 2 Ind.

  52. Enemy Combatant said

    The realiy is at the end of the day in terms of the fullness of time going forward that this prediction will hopefully prioritise my strategic commitment to an enhanced outcome: 88-60-2.

    George, I’m pleased to note that your Primary Rainbow Serpent is getting its tummy back again. As a trained herpepsephologist, I convey this to you strictly on a “need to know” basis.

  53. WhoGivesaRats said

    The score line Saturday week –

    My head says labor 85.
    However, my heart says labor 100+

  54. […] to Surfdom wants us all to wake up and pay as much attention to economic management as Shanahan; Possum Comitatus notes that the recent movement, which is most likely due to methodological and statistical, feeds […]

  55. Peachy said

    smssiva # 49 –

    Thanks for that. I sure hope you are right! My memory is of Labor looking ok in the polls 2 or 3 weeks out and then losing on the day. Hope this is not going to be a repeat – then again it appears that the stars are aligning against Howard this time, his contract with the devil seems to have finally expired!

  56. sydgal said

    I admit it nomad I am a pessimist especially with our Fearless Leader. It’s like a cockroach. You don’t really know if it’s dead even if you drop an anvil on it..it still might live.

    I want to be proven wrong. Oh man, would love to be proven 1000% wrong…I just have this sinking feeling that he will make a Lazarus resurrection in the next two weeks. Something will go belly up with Labor – it has to…it’s the nature of the beast…someone put me out of my misery!

    *sigh*

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