Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

Possums Official “Make your election tips” thread.

Posted by Possum Comitatus on November 12, 2007

Ok folks, the last 2 weeks is upon us, and the time has arrived to start making your tips for how many seats you think each party will win in the House.

If you’re really feeling psephy, you might also want to throw in a prediction on which seat will swing most (and by how much), and which seat will swing either to the Coalition the greatest (or have the least swing to the ALP).

UPDATE:

Some of you have been asking about mine.

Well I have 2 – what I think will happen and what the data suggests. I’m not quite finished doing up the latter, but the former hasn’t changed since the early hours of the morning of the 26th September, when over at Poll Bludger I said:

“… the only maths you’ll need this year is 60+29=89”

I think a lot of the big swings will just fall short of delivering seats, so 89 it is for me (but I’d be more surprised if it were less rather than more than 89).

Biggest swing – still a toss up between Fadden, McPherson and Adelaide, but am looking more at McPherson despite the Gold Coast Bulletins dodgy poll the other day (Yes GCB – I’ve got my eye on your shenanigans).

Smallest swing Brand – a small swing to the Libs.

UPDATE :

The winner of the competition gets sent a signed copy of Jon Kudelkas book – 101 Uses For a John Howard.

208 Responses to “Possums Official “Make your election tips” thread.”

  1. Andos the Great said

    Would that be “Make your election tips”?

  2. The Editor said

    I said it back in February, and I’ll stick by it now: Labor majority by three seats.

  3. Stunkrat said

    Okey Dokey.

    ALP: 98
    Coalition: 49
    Independents: 3

    Biggest Swing: Kingston, SA. 15.5%
    Smallest Swing: Stirling, WA. 4% to ALP.

  4. Ratsak said

    How to make my election Tops!

    – a tear in the Rodent’s eye and a chocking delivery of his concession speech.
    – Hockey to concede to Bailey on channel 7 before sneaking off stage and into a future of well earned irrelevence.
    – Kroger to admit that good governments don’t get bundled out in landslide losses.

    But for Tips.

    I’ve said since March Labor would get 85 seats minimum. I think that’s conservative but I’ll stick with it as a number.
    Biggest swing – Grey
    Best Lib result – Brand

  5. […] Pollytics has launched an election tipping competition which has reminded me about the GrodsTippingChallenge that we had back in February. Readers were […]

  6. JustAlarmed said

    ALP 95
    Libs 54
    Indep 2

  7. Mark said

    ALP 88

    Libs 60

    Ind 2

    The real lottery is in the Senate. Anything could happen, including this:

    http://canberra.yourguide.com.au/news/local/general/young-voters-threat-to-senator/1084018.html

    The end of the sinecure that has been the Territories Senate seats (remember Margaret Reid?) has been predicted before but this time it might just come off. Shame about Humphreys as he’s basically pretty middle of the road and decent – just made a poor career choice.

  8. Roscoe said

    It is Monday 19 November – the last week of the campaign. So far no change, flatline 54-46. At 3pm a station wagon drives up to the Ministerial car park in Parliament House Canberra. A few minutes later 4 drawers from a filing cabinet are loaded and the station wagon drives away. A couple of hours later a small van drives in – this time the complete four drawer filing cabinet is loaded. The van drives away. That night the low humming of a shredding machine can be heard.

    The next day at various intervals some 6 vans of different sizes drive into the Ministerial car park and filing cabinets, cardboard boxes and computers are loaded and driven away. The media hears of this and camps out to watch. That night the incessant buzzing of shredding machines sound like chainsaws over Lake Burley Griffin. Computer hard drives are being silently copied and then deleted.

    Wednesday 21 and the desperate low key dissent publicly breaks out. One backbencher calls a news conference to blame Howard for the oncoming annihilation. A Senator points the finger at Costello. Another says it is Turnbulls fault. More vans drive into Parliament House this time under the glare of TV lights and the removals are seen live on TV.

    Thursday 22 and two Liberal candidates declared themselves Independents. Howard goes on TV accepting that he is a part of the problem. He pleads for the “people of Australia to be good enough and kind enough to elect him” so he could retire in dignity. He promises to resign within 6 months. And hand over to Costello.

    All week the Shadow Ministers mobiles have been ringing incessantly. Calls not from their media or campaign headquarters. But from senior public servants pleading the Nuremberg defence. Pledging loyalty and promising to hand over volumes of implicating confidential documents.

    Friday 23 still 54-46. Jeanette’s open letter to “all fair minded Australians” is published. She says the man she loves deserves to be recognized for his contribution to Australia. “Please re-elect him even if it is just to say thank you”

    Saturday 24 and the devastation is clear to all by 8.00pm. Green and O’Brien declare a new government. Howard waits for West Australia polls to close before publicly conceding defeat. He shuffles into the Sydney CBD hotel amidst a handful of elderly supporters who are crying. A lonely broken figure, no seat, no government. He climbs the stage – no Janette no kids. Alone.

    Later that night he phones Rudd for the second time. This time not to concede defeat but to ask if he could stay on at Kirribilli for a week. Rudd agrees.

    Sunday 25 and Howard drives into Government House parking his car in the same spot that Fraser parked his car that fateful 11 November 1976. This is where Howard’s ministerial career began and this is where it ends. Howard resigns.

    A week later Howard moves into a waterfront apartment loaned by an anonymous benefactor. A few days later he flies first class to the USA to “rest and recover” at a Texas ranch where he will be fed lots of meat. It was strange to organize and pay for the tickets, taxis and hotels. Carrying your own luggage was stranger.

    The outflow starts after Christmas. Bereft of the public service, ministerial offices, and ministerial staff. No friends and no supporters. The long grind of opposition seems a challenge and too hard. They have lost the ability to think. First Downer goes, then Abbott. The deluge follows. Truss, Vaile, Ruddock.

    And now a decade later – an old man sits in the garden. Still puzzled at the 2007 election. The Liberal Party no more. It had splintered a long time ago. The main rump replaced by the Democratic Liberal Party. The old man now does not go anywhere. Long rejected by his former colleagues. He dozes off. There is a thunderclap and out of the clouds in the sky appears a handsome figure in a three piece suit. The voice of Robert Menzies booms out “John you could never have taken my mantle. Because you did not know when to go. If only you went a year earlier. It could have been so different”

  9. seajay said

    ALP 83, Coalition 65, Ind 2.
    Biggest swing; Grey
    Biggest upset; North Sydney ALP win.
    Best Senate result; Libs lose ACT.
    Best moment; Live telecast of the Sherriff evicting Hyacinth (kicking and screaming: “But it’s mine, all mine I tell you”) from Kirribilli House on Monday the 16th.

  10. adam said

    The house at next election? Approx 90:60:2. Libs maybe win one seat in western australia. Biggest swing in Qld against Liberals.

    Pulling out the crystal ball for your entertainment, Madame Adamsky sees….

    Prediction one: Costello to make concession speech, as Howard dies of apoplectic fit stamping foot through floor. Hyacinth self-immolates on the pyre.

    Prediction two: Liberal party experiences herniating rupture similar to UAP after Menzies’ loss of power in 1941. Turnbull to bankroll new centre right party, seeks to re-enter parliament through North Sydney in 2010 as leader of this party. Fails.

    Prediction three: Abbott to lead a rump nut-nut party of remaining neo-cons in the house, none of whom have actually read Hayek. (see especially the postscript to “The Constitution of Liberty”: “Why I am not a conservative”…)

    Prediction four: Greens are the opposition by 2010.

    Prediction five: Greens are the government by 2020.

    Prediction six: 21st century politics plays out over Greens vs. Labor. Water and environment is the fundamental economic issue. Turnbull’s party in coalition with Labor. The Nationals are either irrelevant or in coalition with the Greens. Abbott’s mob die a natural death over the 10’s.

  11. Suspected Illegal Entry Vessel XI said

    labour 80 seats, psephy swing tips are beyond me, but obviously Howard’s mortgage stressed battlers will abandon his stinking, sinking ship in droves, and Poss, as I’ve said, you’ve really got to watch that accent viz, ‘make your election tops’

  12. asanque said

    ALP – 84
    Lib – 64
    Independents – 2

    Although I’m hoping the ALP win more.

  13. ThinWhiteDuke said

    I’ve thought all along that the ALP would end up with between 72-82 seats, that is, a 4 seat loss to the Lib/Nats to a 6 seat win. I’m feeling unusually confident today, so I’ll say:

    Labor 84

    Lib/Nats 64

    Ind 2

    Conservative perhaps, but not remembering an ALP victory, and having only vague memories of PJK as PM, tends to play with your head a bit. Of the few predictions I’ve made about the election thus far, this is the most generous one I’ve given to Labor. Alas, I can see only one of Turnbull/The Rodent going down, more likely the latter.

    I’ll plump for Robertson (NSW) to have the biggest swing. The news I’ve been reading about it seems to show that the Libs have given up on it. Since its on 6.9%, the Libs polling must be showing that there is a big run on to have given up on it 2-3 weeks out from election day. It also has form for big swings, since it went in ’96 to the Libs on a 10% swing. I’ll tip it to fall on a 12.4% swing.

    The best result for the Libs will be in WA. I’ll tip Swan to fall to the Libs on a swing of 3%, providing their only solace of the evening.

  14. Lefty E said

    ALP 89
    LNP 59
    Ind 2

    Biggest shock: Election called by 730pm

    Et tu, Possum?

  15. Adam Vic said

    Here is one for the Coalition, because I can and Someone has to interrupt the salivating of all those
    here who wish to see the end of to use one poster’s words ‘rodent’.
    I am pleased that no one has mentioned the completely erroneous idea that Howard will loose because of ‘children overboard’ and the war in Iraq.
    Howard has the populace more focused on the hip-pocket than honesty in government.
    Enough ranting.

    Coalition: 77 Seats
    Labor: 71
    Independent: 2

    Biggest Swing in WA: Canning 8%
    Biggest Swing overall: Griffith 9.5%
    Smallest Swing: Bennelong: -2%

    Next opposition leader to contest 2010: Julia Gillard

  16. KeepingALidOnIt said

    “1. Would that be “Make your election tips”?

    Comment by Andos the Great — November 12, 2007 @ 9:39 am”

    And note another spelling glitch Poss, it’s “Official”, not “Offical” as well. :))

    I am, as usual, being restrained, so I say a swing of 6.7%, being a 2PP of 54%, which should mean 87 seats on a uniform swing. But I think the number of actual seats won by the ALP will be lower – let’s say around 82 or 83 because the swing won’t be uniform – it will be big in seats that the ALP can’t win (doctor’s wives) or have already won (the return of Victorian true believers to the fold).
    Gulp. I hate committing to a figure, even cautious, prudent ones like this.

  17. Peta said

    Conservatives 150 (+1)
    Progressives 0 (-1)

  18. ALP 88
    LNP 60
    Ind 2

    Biggest upset: Liberals to lose Indi (16.8% Margin)

  19. imacca said

    For me:

    ALP 82
    Lib 66
    Ind 2

    That said, i’d be happy beyond belief if its a real wipe out for the forces of evil and darkness.

  20. Charles said

    ALP 105 and I’m sticking to it.

  21. David Gould said

    ALP 101
    Coalition 47
    Independents 2

    TPP 56 to 44

    Seat with biggest swing will be LEICHHARDT. 14.5 per cent swing.

    Seat with best result for Liberals will be WENTWORTH. There will be seats that give them a swing, but they will either be safe Liberal or safe Labor seats. Wentworth will defy the trend and Turnbull will hang on, making this a close result that the Liberals can smile about. There will not be any others. I am also predicting that Costello will lose his seat by the tiniest of margins. We will not know the result for Higgins for a week after the election.

  22. Charles said

    I’m sticking with 105 to ALP

  23. Jess said

    I am sorry Dave ‘you’re dreaming’ about Indi – have you seen the name of the ALP candidate Zuvele Leschen – its a pretty conservative rural electorate with a member who changed her name when she got married, “as all ‘good’ women do”, from a Panopolous to Mirabella. The only advantage that Labor have is the donkey but that will not come near close enough to knock off Sophie!
    My call is Labor majority of 5 max… I think there will be late swing back to government on the back of a massive scare campaign and potential probs in the US economy which the government will use to its advantage … also I will steal my biggest swing off Poss – Adelaide probably upwards of 10% to ALP… The biggest swing in a Lib seat would be Leichhardt and labor might just take it on preference…just maybe

  24. oyster said

    labor 91, liberal 57, ind 2
    boothby and sturt to fall to labor
    boothby by less than 1% and sturt by 3%
    howard to lose bennelong, the labor ad which features howard retiring is a killer

  25. Rattus nonveritas said

    ALP 106

    DARK SIDE 46

    IND 2

    Howard to give a typically ungracious and self-serving concession speech and thus reinforce the collective good judgement of the electorate.

    Keating to come up with a short phrase that perfectly encapsulates the result and which enters our political lexigraphy.

    Peter Beattie to set a new record for widest Cheshire cat grin ever filmed.

    Kevin and Therese to get a bit teary on the victory podium and endear themselves to the nation.

    The Liberal far right to immediately begin sheeting home blame for the defeat to the moderates, and (hopefully) the Liberal polity believes them and they are in opposition until the whole filthy organisation collapses.

    The Government Gazette editorialists (replaced overnight) apologise for misinforming the nation and install a new, particularly small and furry on-line political editor.

  26. flute said

    ALP: 95

    The house of reps will be stained red.

  27. dany le roux said

    There is a full moon on 25/11 so it has the feel of ’93 about it – something unexpected – so I will predict 106:42:2 and Maxine thanking the women of Bennelong as she accepts victory.

  28. Alan H said

    I’ll stick with Labor 94 Ind 2

    Biggest swing Dobell 13.5%

    cheers,

    Alan H

  29. SJP said

    Labor will win at least 22 seats. Put me down for 82-66+ 2Ind (favouring ALP). I hope that its double that but after 2004, I be happy for ANY Labor win.

  30. andrew said

    ALP 94 LIB/NAT 53 IND 3

  31. TMP said

    I am going to be a bit restrained and go for:

    ALP – 91, LNP – 56 and IND – 3

  32. Greensborough Growler said

    10% TPP swing gives Labor 106 plus Warringah just for fun.

    107 Labor
    41 Coalition
    2 Independents

    Biggest swing Warringah
    Least Wentworth

  33. Chatswood Statsman said

    ALP 96 Coalition 52 Ind 2

  34. Steve of Wakefield said

    82 – Labor
    66 – Libs
    2 – Ind

    Sturt to oust Pyner the Whiner…

    I’d like to tip a bigger majority for Labor, but my inner pessimist won’t let me…lol

  35. Bilko said

    As more people become focussed and the scare campaign heats up the nervous nellies will be out in force, I believe there will be a narrowing of the gap so my thoughts are 82,66,2.
    Makin in SA largest swing.

    I must add A G’s swing meter is so much funto play with

  36. Dinsdale Piranha said

    My prediction: people on this thread learn to add up to 150.

  37. Dinsdale Piranha said

    Peter Brent, who is omnipotent, says 90 for Labor.

  38. Michael said

    My guess is 79 for Labor.
    I’ll take a punt that Turnbull will hold Wentworth and that he’ll do so with a 1-2 per cent swing in his favour.

  39. DAP said

    ALP – 100
    Coalition – 48
    Ind – 2

    Howard will lose, Turnbull will survive – as will Abbott, but this result will come in late.
    Macarthur will have the biggest swing to the ALP.
    Wentworth will have the smallest swing to the ALP in the east – not sure what WA will produce.

  40. Jess said

    Anyone got any good ideas for a new name for the Government Gazette after the fall of their beloved Government… perhaps the “Liberal News” – I am sure someone can come up with something better…. I am also sure that unlike the view of some here the Oz will not change its spots post election….

  41. bushhunter said

    ALP 91 – 57 – 2

    Biggest Swing: Bonner
    Upset Result: Higgins to ALP

  42. Ratsak said

    Jess, I think the “Village Idiot” will make a nice moniker for the GG post Nov 24. Afterall there’s enough idiots writing for it to supply every village in the country that is currently struggling to find a suitable candidate in these times of skill shortages.

  43. Burgey said

    85-63-2.

    Been sticking with this for 6 weeks now, and see no reason to change.

    Hope I’m being (ahem) “conservative” in my prediction.

  44. Michael said

    One question – has Labor EVER won a federal election (either from govt or opposition) in a landslide since WWII?

  45. Michael said

    jess – Tory Tribune? Conservative Courier?

  46. brian said

    In answer to Michael’s question re a Labor Landslide win…YES .. In 1983..with the defeat of Malcolm Fraser..I think with a vote of 52.3% for the ALP ..and a massive fall of seats to the ALP !

  47. peterh said

    I was reluctant to tempt fate with a forecast, but what the hell.

    A swing of 6.5% on Antony’s calculator makes for 87 – 61 – 3, though I’d love to see nothing but scorched earth on the other side.

    Another forecast: much wailing and gnashing of teeth from the usual commentators as they consider their new irrelevence, and a mean spirited concession from the father of our nation. But no tears or even quavering upper lip.

    How many more sleeps?

    (Long time reader and admirer of the wonderful furry one, first time commenter)

  48. SwingingVoter said

    ALP 88

  49. wilful said

    So Possum, are you going to be marsupial enough to put up your own predictions?

  50. Rate Analyst said

    I’m on PB at 94 odd to the ALP with 2 independents. I’ll stick with that.

    Biggest swing to ALP will be North Sydney.

  51. Jess said

    Micheal I prefer Conservative Courier given the current editor used to be editor for the Queensland Courier Mail… very appropriate… also think that you can trace a more obvious conservative bias to his term as editor.

  52. stevet said

    Michael at #44, Hawkey won about 25 seats in 1983. That was considered a landslide at the time.

  53. Yo Ho Ho said

    ALP 78
    Libs 70
    2 Indies.

    Biggest swing to ALP – Kingston (13%)
    Biggest swing to Libs – Cowan (4%)

  54. parranormal said

    Way back on September 22, in a post about beauty and the Golden Mean, we at <a href=”valuesaustralia.com/blog/?p=355″Values Australia suggested – entirely without psephological justification – what we thought the ideal numbers would be:

    If there were beauty in politics it would be a nicely proportioned swing of about 7.8%. Majority of 38: Labor 93, Coalition 55, Independents 2.
    93/57 ≈ 1.6 (the golden ratio)

    It seemed a bit ambitious back then, but it’s looking more reasonable these days!

    We also predict that Maxine McKew will have a decisive win in Bennelong after the voters realise that the government is gone for all money, Howard will resign, and they’d rather not have to go through a by-election which Maxine would certainly win anyway. So they’ll cut their losses and go for the Max.

  55. Peregrine said

    I’m still sitting on 89 seats to ALP, 59 for the Coalition and 2 independents.

    Biggest ALP swing – Grey, Leichhardht, McPherson and Gilmore to swing by around 11% with Labor picking up Leichhardht and Gilmore. Labor will also get around 10% in Bradfield.

    Best Coalition swing – swing to Labor of only 2% in Cowan, around 3% in Aston.

    Coalition may hang on in Dobell but lose Bennelong and Ryan. North Sydney and Warringah will be line ball and Wentworth will go down to the wire.

    SkyNews to call it for Malcolm and then be forced to recant.

    The number of close contests the swing produces will mean Nick Minchin and Michael Kroger will keep saying it’s not over until all the votes are counted until after midnight.

  56. Krudd said

    Labour 78
    Liberals 71
    Indy 1

    I reckon the next two weeks are going to be grotesque.

    The details:

    – Counting goes long into the night, problems with counting in Qld
    – Bennelong goes to McKew at about midnight
    – Rudd declared at 1.00pm
    – Howard makes concession speech that is more humane than anything he’s said in office.
    – Costello makes speech across town …
    … and says he will not contest the leadership
    – Turnbull and Nelson go the spill, Downer waits for the ball to drop, but Nelson has it
    – 3 term Labor government
    – Family First goes more mainstream, renamed to something like Australian Conservatives
    – Greens go gangbusters in 2010
    – Natasha Stott Despoja comes back… for the Greens
    – … is leader in 2011

    – Orangutans breed out of control and rule the earth.

    “It was Parliament House all along! You bastards!”

  57. bowls clubber said

    But has the upstart challenger made his break too early? Think Kieran Perkins, Atlanta 1996, 1500 metre final, starting in lane 8, written off by the punters. The old champion, never beaten, now in his last race, turns for the final lap, the crowd rises to it’s feet, there’s a lump in your throat, a tear in your eye..

    Nah, Labor by plenty.

  58. Rog said

    Here goes, based on highly scientific “gut feel”: Labor 91, Coalition 57, Ind 2.
    Possum – love the analysis.

  59. Musrum said

    ALP 112 – Because this will demonstrate Anthony’s hubris in not creating a swing calculator that will go to 11%.

  60. josh lyman said

    just watched the Coalition campaign ‘launch’. Nothing in there struck terror in my (bleeding) heart. Not sure people will catch the difference in education tax rebates, the housing savings plan was completely “me too” from Rudd’s, and the child care rebate is less actual cash for the parents than Labor’s.

    So it SHOULD be a Ruddslide. but people seem to be mesmerised by the Howard Scare (TM), they just keep buying it every time. Any more global economic jitters and it gets close IMHO.

    Biggest swing: Grey 13.8% (but not necessarily falling)
    Smallest swing: Wentworth (Turnbull to hold)

    I’m not giving numbers – I’ve already had to “turn around three times and spit in the corner” enough for one campaign!

  61. Mark said

    Parranormal (54) FYI had a confirmed sighting of Maxine, at 6am, powerwalking in Epping, like her life depended on it. Obviously in training – would have left the tracksuited incumbent in her dust. She looked a clear winner.

    My only suggestion is to lose the Mosman dog. Poor little Maltese was being dragged along, obviously under sufferance & way above its safe speed limit. Needs a good solid Bennelong labrador or similar.

    My earlier 88-60-2 is looking well within the 95% confidence interval for this thread. To complete the picture – biggest swing Fisher (just because I like the “Give Slipper the Boot” slogan) and smallest Curtin because, well, because I’d to see Julie Bishop pouting peevishly at Kevvie from the Opposition Leader’s chair.

  62. paulyt said

    Labor 89-59-2

    Biggest swing – Ryan and Macarthur

  63. josh lyman said

    just watched the Coalition campaign ‘launch’. Nothing in there struck terror in my (bleeding) heart. Not sure people will catch the difference in education tax rebates, the housing savings plan was completely “me too” from Rudd’s, and the child care rebate is less actual cash for the parents than Labor’s.

    So it SHOULD be a Ruddslide. but people seem to be mesmerised by the Howard Scare(TM), they just keep buying it every time. Any more global economic jitters and it gets close IMHO.

    Biggest swing: Grey 13.8% (but not necessarily falling)
    Smallest swing: Wentworth (Turnbull to hold)

    I’m not giving numbers – I’ve already had to “turn around three times and spit in the corner” enough times for one campaign!

  64. marrickville mauler said

    In Possum we trust – I have had ticket number 89 in the office pool these past 2 months and am not about to change now.

    I won’t be very surprised to see it come out higher (any list of 89 I put together leaves out at least 6 strong possibles and only includes 2 or 3 uncertains) but hey, who cares about being wrong in those circumstances.

    What a ride these last months have been – cometh the hour, cometh the marsupial. We who are about to have a fabulous 24th November salute you.

    Oh and I think the result will be clear, even if not called, by 7.15.

  65. marrickville mauler said

    Sorry – omitted the pick the swings: Smallest swing Wentworth – Turnbull to just hold on. Biggest swing Dawson, ALP just over the line.

  66. barney said

    Lab 92

    BTW Possum. Sportingbet had Mcpherson @ $21 last week. It’s in to $7.
    Have you been putting some of your hard-earned?

  67. Harmless Cud Chewer said

    Before I make my prediction I should say that my biggest concern all along has not been whether the campaign will change the final vote much, but whether there isn’t something systemically wrong with the polls. It doesn’t take much at all to create a global error of 1 or 2%. So bear that in mind when trusting a trend line of 55.

    The other thing I predict is that Howard’s ongoing wedge politics and bad micro management is going to create ‘lumps’, and that this might show up in some seats. I’ll note a couple of these below.

    So, depending on whose poll you trust, the trend line seems to be around 54.5. Take a point off that for systemic effects and I get 53.5. Plug that into Antony’s calculator and you get 83 for the ALP.

    I predict Bennelong will go. We’ve had several polls showing about 52/48 and these polls aren’t fine grained enough to show the anger amongst the fairly tight knit Chinese community. Second to that is the university students (they also network well).

    I predict Wentworth to go. In this case the two things worth noticing is the anger amongst the gay community and the reaction of wet liberals to Howard’s wedge politics on immigrants and climate change.

    People have to be *really* pissed off to not only change their vote, but also change the votes of their social peers.

    I’m also predicting Paterson. Not just because its my seat, but because of the micro management issues. The RAAF here is a huge employer and they are fuming at Brendan. There’s also the service economy (workchoices) and we’ve also seen a huge increase in mortgages. Last time we saw wall to wall posters with Howard’s face on them “trust me”. He’s strangely absent this time.

    I’m also predicting Higgins is going to end up as a less than 2% marginal (with an outside chance of falling). Same goes for North Sydney. In both cases there will be a negative vote for the minister.

    And a huge personal swing against Downer, oddly enough.

    Places like Indi, Hume, Groom and so on may actually see an improvement of the Liberal vote. My theory is that less networked, more rural areas are going to cling to the conservatives. Since swings are ultimately about the flow of ideas between people and about who you network with.

    I agree with Possum’s analysis regarding general socioeconomic issues. This is why I’m predicting Robertson for Labor.

    However, when the dust has settled and people are left scratching their heads about weird swings, they’re going to be pointing at issues that have to do with anger over bad micro management and wedge politics.

    It’s interesting to note that as the campaign was called, a bunch of voters jumped from the minors back to the Liberals. These were disaffected Liberal voters. And I bet these guys are getting a bit more disillusioned about now. The Widening?

    Now, while I’ve predicted 83 and I find it hard to believe anything over 90, purely on what can be measured, in my heart of hearts, I hope that on polling day the people decide to deal such a humiliation that no one will ever try to repeat what Howard has done.

  68. JC said

    I can’s bring myself to prodict the landslide I want to see.
    82 or 77, depending if WA goes well or poor.
    I’m a Victorian so I’m only vaugely aware of a big state to the west, not really a sound basis for a prediction.
    Come on the most recent Mogan F2F, ALP 63%. You can keep your 14 seats.

    I know it’s been said, but biggest pro-ALP swing LIECHART, smallest COWAN.

    Surprise ALP wins: KALGOORLIE, GREY, GIPPSLAND

    I wish.

  69. marty said

    From other thread, but for me it’s 79-69-2 to ALP.
    Ratty to lose Bennelong.
    Eden Monaro to fall early.
    Wentworth to stay Lib.
    My bottle of Veuve Clicquot to be empty by 9pm.

  70. Evan said

    I’ll go for ALP 91 LNP 57 Ind 2

    Biggest Swing: Ryan.

    I reckon Anthony Green will be calling it before 8pm EST.

  71. josh lyman said

    the side betting on the time the election will be called reminds me to ask when the coverage will actually start? I thought it was not until 7:30 or so to not influence WA voting?

    Antony – I appreciate you can’t give a prediction (although I bet you’d love to) but could you let us know about this?

  72. Pi said

    My tips as stated here a week ago. Still lookin good…

    http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?id=1503&p=1

    Primaries
    ALP 47.0
    LNP 41.0
    GRN 8.0
    Other 4.0

    TPP
    54.5 / 45.5
    Swing ~7.5

    State Swings
    NSW 6
    Vic 8
    QLD 11
    SA 11
    WA 2
    Tas 4
    ACT 6
    NT 3

    Seats
    ALP 97
    LNP 41
    Other 2

    My Antony Green Election Calculator…
    http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=0&nsw=6&vic=8&qld=11&wa=2&sa=11&tas=4&act=6&nt=3&retiringfactor=1

    Smallest swing?
    I reckon Turnbull (Wentworth) is gonna get over the line.

    Biggest swing?
    I reckon Hockey (North Sydney) is goin down.

  73. Pi said

    I probably shouldn’t have said ‘biggest swing’ so much as ‘most notable swing’.

  74. This is Dizzy Stuff Folks said

    “Liberal lord mayor of Brisbane Campbell Newman introduced Mr Howard to the stage by saying Australia was ‘lucky’ to have a leader of his calibre. Cr Newman would be the most senior Liberal in office around the country if Labor wins the election.”

    Absolute gold!

    I’ve been annoyed by the attention Eden-Monaro gets as the bellwether vs poor old Macarthur which has done the same job for longer! If I had one wish it would be for Macarthur to win again. So my tip would be 90-58-2 plus 1 for Macarthur.. so 91-57-2.

  75. Kate Ellis for PM said

    In the other thread I picked 89 (ALP)-59-2.

    I am going for Adelaide with the biggest swing- after 24 Nov Kate Ellis will have a very safe margin of 10.5%.
    Smallest swing will probably come from the wild west.

  76. Alex McDonnel said

    My prediction (also on Pollbludger) 88/60, 2 Ind
    Howard will just hold Bennelong as will Turnbull in Wentworth.

  77. Peter Fuller said

    I think Labor 93, Coalition (Libs 46, Nats 9) 55 Independents 2
    Biggest swing Forde, with Leichardt, Bonner, Fisher, Bass, Grey and Gippsland in contention.
    Smallest swing Curtin, Wentworth.
    Outsider possibilities: Independent wins Calare, Corio and less likely Forrest. I don’t think any of these will happen, but they are conceivable.
    Shock results predictions: Ryan, Forde and Leichardt; Gippsland to fall, one of Higgins, Goldstein, Menzies possible. Fisher also a possibility.

  78. Blair said

    I suspect the reason Macarthur hasn’t attracted so much attention as the bellwether is that it’s been radically altered by redistributions on several occasions.

    As for a tip, I’ll go 88-59-3. Largest swing – Leichhardt. Smallest – Cowan.

    Something else which could be fun to tip: what will be the most marginal seat in Australia after the election? Haven’t really thought about it myself yet – I saw a similar competition for the 1997 British election (in which the seat I’d lived in for a year some time earlier was decided by 2 votes).

  79. Ijon Tichy said

    You lovable fools.

    Coalition 81, ALP 67, Ind 2.

    ALP will reach 51% on TPP basis, but not enough swings in the right seats.

    WA will be awful for the ALP, and SA and Queensland not as good as hoped for.

    Howard and Turnbull keep their seats.

    I will grumble for another 3 years.
    😦

  80. The Doctor said

    Possum,
    its very tempting to think of this election as a mirror of ’96, but Rudd & Labor have a bit more behind them than Howard did in ’96 in terms of popularity so:
    ALP 93, Coalition 55 Ind 2

  81. Bruce said

    I’ve posted my tips before based on a regression analysis.
    They were:
    ALP primary 48.5% +/- 0.5%

    ALP 2PP 54.8% +/- 1.0%

    Seats:
    ALP 92 +/- 5
    Coalition 56 +/- 5
    Independent 2

    Why can’t I be more specific. Well, being a statistician means never having to say you’re certain. Hold me to Prim/2PP/seats of 48.5%/54.8%/92 as my best guess.

    I’ll try and do another estimate just prior to the election.

    ps Howard to lose seat. Don’t know about Turnbull.

  82. Tom said

    Going by Newspoll etc about 85 seats.

    I think that there will be more rage at rising mortgage rates that it will be higher than that, so I will predict 90 seats. Election all over 8.00pm SA time.

    I would love if my state really contributed to the rout and added Boothby, Sturt & Grey to the Liberal carnage.

  83. John Ryan said

    I predict:
    TPP: 54.6% Labor

    Labor: 95
    Coalition: 53
    Other: 2

    Bennelong will fall, Senator Humphries (Lib-ACT) will not be re-elected.

    Biggest swing: Grey (SA)
    Smallest swing: Cowan (WA)

  84. mickhs said

    Labor 102
    L/NP 46
    Ind 2

  85. Brian McInnes said

    Labor 100
    Coalition 44
    Ind 2

    Biggest swing Macarthur (11.5%)
    Smallest swing Lingiari (0.8%)

  86. Beach Ball said

    ALP 88
    Tories 60
    Ind 2

    Biggest swing: Adelaide, but won’t result in an ALP gain
    Biggest Win: Macarthur. Forrest Gump can keep running.
    Smallest swing: Wentworth (Even if Turnbull loses, it won’t be by much.)

  87. Doug said

    ALP 90
    Independent 2
    coalition 58

    Largest swing to ALP: McPherson
    Smallest swing to aLP – swing to the Coalition: Calare

    PS – Possum how are you going to calculate the swing in Calare or the other independent seats for that matter? there could be notionally a huge increase in the coalition vote with the absence of Andren.

  88. Possum Comitatus said

    That’s a very good question Doug, and I haven’t actually figured out an answer yet!

    I might just use the notional Coalition TPP vote that I’m sure someone like Antony, Mal Mackerras or Mr Mumbles would have figured out.

    No need to reinvent the wheel!

  89. Harry 'Snapper' Organs said

    I’ll stick with 91 ALP, same as at Poll Bludger, for no very scientific reason, more something to do with uneven swing, as can keep up with the Poss and other credible analytical sites only intermittently at the moment.

  90. haiku said

    91 ALP, 57 Coal, 2 Ind.

    I’m still keen for you, the bludger, mumble and bryan to feature on the ABC coverage at some point. Antony Green – are you around, can you make this happen??

  91. Refried Noodle said

    I’ll say 86 to 62.

    There’ll be a slight narrowing from the current polls to deliver this result. I don’t think anything over 94 will occur, but would love to see it.
    The big tonne would be too funny. That’s not just electoral annihilation, but party annihilation.

  92. Enemy Combatant said

    Take 2. (Curse you spaminator. ‘Twas not I who suggested that yo mama sleeps in a wicker basket!)

    Team Tin-Tin: 88
    The Parties formerly led by El Rodente: 60
    Indies: 2
    (same as in The Bludgers comp a few weeks back)
    Biggest State Swing: SA 12.5%
    Smallest State swing: WA 4.5%
    Biggest seat swing: Hindmarsh: 13%
    Smallest seat swing: Stirling: 3.5%
    Merci, Monsieur.

    The above is pure speculation. There is only one certainty.
    Democracy will be the winner one the day.

  93. Harmless Cud Chewer said

    Hey Blair, here’s my tip for the most marginal.

    Wentworth, by 100 votes, for Labor🙂

  94. STAR said

    While it will be difficult, the biggest winning swing will be McPherson. 13.9% needed.

    The smallest swing will be Wentworth with Turnbull just holding on.

    The rodent in Bennelong is history.

  95. Frogg said

    Predictions:

    ALP: 95
    Lib+Nat: 53
    Ind: 2
    Smallest swing: my favorite minister: The CC believer Turnbull
    Biggest swing: where else but Queensland … (not sure which one)

  96. Grumps said

    Based on your good work possum my crack at this is:

    TPP: 53.5% to Labor giving
    Labor 83
    L/NP 66
    Ind 1

    Wish to see, On the most prominent billboards in each capital city:

    To the owner, editors and reporters of the GG,
    Shananana (insert here any other name/s applicable)
    You were wrong!!!!!!!
    Next time report fact not opinion.

    Long Live the Possum

  97. Kramer said

    Labor 83
    L/NP 66
    Ind 1

    Labor with a uniform swing of 53.5%.

    Biggest Swing: Kingston
    Smallest Swing: Stirling

    I think Howard will lose Bennelong. I wasn’t thinking that a few weeks ago, but the polls are simply too large to ignore.

  98. Alex on a Bus said

    OK, time to put my arse on the line…

    HEADLINE: Labor 90-3-55 (Forrest to go indy), TPP swing 6.8%
    BIG SWINGER: Ryan
    SMALL SWINGER: Stirling

    … and the side bets…

    THE THRONE: Bennelong gone with a 6% swing
    THE SHOW: Labor to squeak it in Wentworth – wait for the postals, though.
    THE GIMME: Page
    THE STUNNER: Menzies

  99. Martin said

    smart man Possum, those sandgropers mightn’t have wanted Kimbo as PM but they’ll never forgive the ALP for dumping him for Kev – and thereby robbing them of the hypotehtical possibility of another WA PM…

  100. booleanbach said

    ALP 99
    LNP 49
    Ind 2
    Bennelong lost to LNP
    GG becomes GIEG ( Govt in exile gazette)
    Wine sales +100% from 24th till Xmas

  101. Lukas said

    This is election is unlike the previous ones Howard as won. In 2001 he was further in front at the start of the capaign than at the end of it, he lost votes during the campaign. In 2004 he gained votes in the campaign, but that was only after he had lost them before the campaign started – he was in front of Labor several months before the election. In 2007 he has been behind all year by a large margin. Looking across the polls, the margin at the moment is probably about 55% to 45%, he needs to get at least 49% to win. He picked up maybe 2% in the last fortnight of the 2004 election, but this year he has lost the plot, no-one is listening to him and he will be lucky to pick up 1%, probably half.

    So my bold prediction is a TPP swing to ALP of 7%. Anthony’s calculator would make that ALP 91, Coalition 57, Ind 2, but I think Labor will pick up considerably more seats than that, mainly because of larger than average swings in otherwise safe Liberal seats and in Queensland. I think a feasible scenario is
    ALP 100
    Coalition 48
    Ind 2

    Biggest swing: Leichardt
    Smallest swing to ALP: Blaxland

    Watch out for: Ryan, Grey, Dawson, Forde, Fisher, North Sydney, Macarthur.

  102. Firemaker said

    The best the Coalition can expect is a TPP of 46.2 / 53.8 (which I predict. However I think this will deliver more than the pendulum predicts. ALP 94, Ind 2, Coalition 54.

    Biggest Swing: Corrangamite 14% (Then I can give to the guy handing out the propaganda at Marshall station.)
    No Swing in Braddon

    Howard decides to resign his seat, however must wait 2 weeks to be declared the winner in Bennelong (by 68 votes) before making it public.

  103. Don Wigan said

    I’ll go for the same as I did on Poll Bludger, which was ALP 90. Starting to think that is conservative now, but there are still many unknowns. To differ a bit from the others I’ll pick 56 LNP and 4 independents. (Add Forrest and Calare to existing two.)

  104. Mathew Cole said

    I’ll go on the record (and if I’m wrong, I’ll take my ribbing cheerfully)

    Coalition: 77 seats.
    ALP: 71 seats.
    Ind: 2 seats.

    Biggest swings to ALP: Hindmarsh (15%), Adelaide (15%).
    Smallest swings to ALP: Swan (-1% to -2%), Cowan (ditto), Wentworth (-5%).

    Howard to attempt to hold on to leadership, having held Bennelong by a hair. Turnbull to roll him.
    Rudd vs Turnbull in 2010. Turnbull wins, having repositioned the LP towards the centre.

    If I’m a pessimist, that’s because I remember 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004.

  105. Old academic said

    Along with #89, I have a gloomy prediction: ALP 79, LNP 69, Ind 2. Rudd forms Govt. but is committed to almost the same policies as Coalition in the first term. Long term effects of bad management by Coalition begin to bite. Inflation, higher interest rates, cause dollar to rise. Manufacturing exports fall, car industry folds, Mineral exports bottlenecked etc. Coalition says “we told you so” and wins with landslide in 2010. Coalition outlaws Unions, ALP decimated. Coalition beefs up defamation laws and uses them to take critics to court. Minor parties unable to be heard. Coalition rules happily ever after. All of us die of severe depression or Alzheimers.

    On another note: excellent work by Possum that shows up the shoddy propaganda journalism of the MSM.

  106. wantok said

    I’ll stick with my earlier punt:

    Large Right Wing Party 98
    Slightly More Right Wing Coalition 50
    Inds 2

    Howard, Costello, Hockey, Turnbull to go. Liberal Party begins terminal decline with Downer at the helm and donations drying up… to be replaced with a much more disturbing populist party further to the right. ALP to stay in power for five terms before the New Wingnuts get in.

  107. battling hubris said

    A slightly different way of looking at it: (provided that the Coalition primary vote remains at 42% or below) Labor with a majority of 26. Howard will concede ungraciously, still stretching forward when emphasising in an attempt to look taller. Costello will be leader of the opposition but replaced in 18 months time when poll results are disastrous: Australians can only endure cringe comedy once a week.
    Downer is the one to watch, and if he goes then Brough.
    Whither sundry ambassadors and high commissioners? Are their hols to be ended early?
    Biggest swing to Labor: somewhere in SA.
    Best result for Libs: other than A Abott losing his seat, somewhere in WA.
    Oh, I’m in Canberra and have purchased ear plugs and a mask: for next week’s shredding, and the air pollution from all the little bonfires – “(sniffle) just as well we had a good go at this when AWB was on the ropes (sniffle)”.

  108. battling hubris said

    A slightly different way of looking at it: Labor with a majority of 26. Howard will concede ungraciously, still stretching forward when emphasising in an attempt to look taller. Costello will be Leader for 18 months when diastrous polls prove that Australia can only handle cringe comedy once a week. Downer is the one to watch, that’s if he stays, otherwise Brough will suddenly become ‘popular’.
    Best swing to Labor: somewhere in SA.
    Best result for Libs: other than A Abott losing his seat, somewhere in WA.

    Oh, I’m in Canberra and I’ve purchased ear plugs and a mask – for the roar of next week’s shredding machines, and for the smoke from all the little bonfires: “(sniffle) just as well we had a good go at this when the AWB stuff was on (sniffle)”.

  109. JoshWK said

    I think I’ve said something similar over at PollBludger. Anyway, here goes nothin’ –

    ALP 81 – L/NP 66 – IND 3 (Gavin Priestly in Calare… this one’s not so sure)

    Wentworth to fall, Bennelong to come down to postals, which the Libs will win.

    The Bolter: Goldstein.
    The Disappointment: North Sydney (Hockey to stay, little swing)
    The Biggest Swing to ALP: Brisbane, to the order of 8%, or if the swing is actually on (I can’t believe the polls right now, much as I’d like to) another Queensland seat with around 13%. Don’t know the area well enough to say.
    The Fingers Crossed: Greens in 2PP in Sydney and Grayndler, possibly Melbourne.

    Senate:
    Alp-Grn split in ACT
    FFP get up in QLD (gee, thanks a whole bunch, Pauline)

    Bolter that I want to see: Andrew Wilkie
    Bolter that we might see: 2-2-1-1 in SA, with Lib, Lab, X, Grn.
    Bolter that we will see: surprisingly strong Coalition Senate vote in WA keeps them at 3 Senators in defiance of national trend.

    Coalition to lose majority, JUST. I’ve heard enough people tell me they will vote ALP in the House, Green in the Senate that I think the Greens may actually pick up a bit, despite low polls in the House. Ideal conditions for Greens are ALP gov’t, non-realigning election, I think… though I can’t really prove that.

    Post-election leadership spill: Bronnie in Mackellar kicked out for Turnbull, contest between Costello, Turnbull and Abbott. When Abbott is laughed out of the room, his supporters give it to Costello. Liberal Party goners in 2010 (with usual caveats, i.e. completely and utterly hope-based… which is good enough for me!).

  110. ArabaLeftie said

    ALP 97 – Ind 2 – Coalition 51
    Biggest swing – Leichardt (15%)
    Smallest swing – Boothby (1%)
    Best results – Howard to lose Bennelong, Tucker to win in the ACT Senate

  111. Jess – I think that Indi will have a huge swing based on local issues. Have a look at http://alpineopinion.wordpress.com/ for some pure Panopolous Mirabella gold. Sophie has upset most of Myrtleford over her cash from BAT when shutting down the tobacco industry and most of Wangaratta because her husband has lodged an complaint about a proposed meatworks with the EPA.

    Even a 16% margin looks shakey when you’re talking jobs in a depressed area. The ALP candidate is an Alpine Shire Councillor who has had a few state runs previously, she has good name recognition and is making a dent.

    I think we’ll see some very strange swings this election, Team Rodent’s local issues strategy my backfire quite badly.

  112. KC said

    92 seats.

    Howard and Turnbull too close to call.

    Cornes to beat Southcott.

    Hockey to lose, especially after his remarks today.

    Greens to pick up Humphreys seat in the ACT.

    Many other lib seats to become marginal, meaning will be so scared of DD that they will not block legislation.

    Biggest swing, the bottle of bundy in my hand as I toast each fall.

  113. Nathan said

    lol at Matt Cole, dunno if youve read lately mate, but 2PP is 55%/45% thats like an 8-9% swing to Labor, which unfortunately for a right wing extremist such as yourself, means 90-100 seats to Labor. Unfortunately for Labor though, they yet again have to fix up the absolute disaster Mr.Howard seems to be able to make of an economy. I can see Wayne Swan in 2 years time saying “The Recession we had to have” sound familiar, it’s on its way, also unfortunately this time, its gonna hit much harder, for all those “middle class” out there that voted Liberal and lose there house, sucks to be you.

  114. JC said

    It will be interesting to see if any more independents make it up. O’Conner in Corio is the only real (he thinks) threat to a Labor seat, but Forrest, Calare or Wide Bay might get picked up by independents. Maybe even Dr Death in Menzies, though very few stranger things have happened!!

  115. Refried Noodle said

    Only really payed attention to the ACT senate situation and with today’s Morgan showing these results I’m gonna have to say that it will be Lundy (Labor) and Tucker (Greens) to take the two senate seats:

    ALP: 48%
    LIB: 24.5%
    GRN: 20%
    DEM: 5%
    OTH: 2.5%

    Democrats and Other vote will, conservatively, be evenly split amongst ALP, LIB and GRN giving 50.5%, 27% and 22.5%. The 17% surplus from the ALP will mostly go to Tucker delivering her around 39%. Even being conservative with Morgans numbers the Greens are looking good.

  116. Vino Veritas said

    I am tipping 86/62/2 for ALP. Ryan or McPherson in Qld are ones to watch for big swings. Obviously a lot depends on the ALP launch tomorrow, and how credible the policies are. I heard Fran Kelly on the ABC this morning, what a great journo she is. Gave Rattus Rattus a good goung over, he was quite hostile and frustrated by the time she finished. He had the gall to say that all his handouts were not inflationary because they did not amount to increased spending. I would love to hear the Treasury take on that, let alone the RBA. Time to take Economics 101, Rattie, this is basic elementary stuff.

  117. El Nino said

    ALP – 81
    Coalition – 67
    Ind – 2

    Biggest swing: Fadden 14%

  118. El Nino said

    My left brain says small swing to Lib in Swan. My right brain say Lindsay – small swing to Labor but not enough.

  119. Rod said

    One thing that matters to me as much as “Labor by how much in the Reps and lets hope we see some Greens in the Senate to keep them focused” is who we will genuinely miss after the election and who we would love to see depart.

    For mine, the biggest current threatened loss (and I hasten to say that I am NOT personally a Democrat voter) is to Queensland’s Andrew Bartlett.

    If all the Dems who ever were had been like Bartlett I’d be a signed up, card carrying, how to vote handing out, member. They aren’t (though they have had some other goodies as well as the like of Meg).

    But Bartlett, in my opinion, (and I’ve been working with Aboriginal groups in one part of Australia or another for the last 32 years) has more than paid his dues when it comes to genuine, intelligent approaches to one of the long standing, unresolved, issues in Australian politics. he is on parlous ground this time round. I reckon we all lose something that really matters if he goes.

    At the other end of the spectrum for me it is a choice between Ruddock and Andrews. Both have inflamed racial tension and cultural conflict. For me, Ruddock gets the gong, though, simply because of his hypocrisy. With Andrews you would never have expected anything else. Ruddock, at one stage, had pretences of being a small l Lib. Long gone, of course, and it is very doubtful that even then he was half genuine. He used to hang around Macquarie Uni as a doyen of the “young libs” and then candidate, when I was a student there in the very early 70’s. Nothing “small l” about him then, except when it suited his idea of the market!

    Ruddock, of course, has spent far more time hopping from seat to seat to shore up his margin than his “election mate” Howard in the intervening years. The chances of him losing are Berowra are miniscule. But nothing would be more satisfying than watching, by some twist of fate, the ageing “Death’s Head Ruddock” bow out this time around!

    So who else would people like to unexpectedly win or lose?

    Cheers

    Rod

  120. Peter Fuller said

    Nathan,
    Based on nothing more than his previous posts, I believe that Matt Cole is a Labor-supporting pessimist, not a right wing extremist. I think that your analysis is correct, that the polls won’t shift, certainly not on the scale necessary to deal the Libs/Nats back in the game.

  121. Rod said

    Yes, Nathan. I reckon Peter is spot on the money. These things can “get to” the best of us after a few rounds of disappointment and some decide that it is better not to get hopeful (rather like my favourite character, Tigger, in Winnie the Pooh)

    This time around I think Mathew is wrong, but I can certainly understand the nervousness!

    Cheers

    Rod

  122. Return with Interest said

    Tipping this election puts my heart in my mouth. THE BIGGEST SWING Some of the local polling in SA is all over the place eg Kate Ellis in Adelaide TTP 64% a swing of 13% but across the road Mia Handshin (Sturt) only 5% swing at TTP 48%. It was the state seats in Sturt that went boonta to ALP at the last state election.
    Whilst in SA,have a look at the odds on CentreBet for 2 Liberal incumbents in Wakefield and Kingston. However for mine its GREY. Loss of incumbent, massive demographic changes with Roxby expansion and Whyalla back up off its knees and the mood for change. At 13.8% the odds are at $5.25.

    THE SMALLEST SWING BRADDON, the whole hospital saga and the pulp mill has confused the ALP message.

    OVERALL ALP 90 LNP 57 INDEPS 3 (Forrest is the 3rd)

    GREATEST WISH FULFILLMENT The rodent’s concession speech.
    MINOR SECONDARY WISH Chris Pyne losing Sturt, the tosser.
    MOST LOOKED FORWARD TO MAIDEN SPEECH Greg Combet

  123. BLUEBOTTLE said

    BLUEBOTTLE SAYS 85 Labor at least, possibly 87. Biggest swing: Moreton, smallest swing Flynn [ok Im joking}, Higgins.

    Go to http://pbpredict.googlepages.com/home if you want to check out your predictions against those posted by Pollbludger contributors.

  124. Lukas said

    I agree with Rod, it will be a pity when Bartlett goes, he has done some of the best work in the parliament for refugees in particular, and lots in the community as well. He has had his faults, most of them coming in 750ml bottles, but he will be a great loss. However the Democrats are in such a parlous position that it is dificult in the extreme to see him being re-elected.

    While Ruddock is even less likely to lose his seat than Bartlett is to keep his, there is at least a slight chance that Andrews could go under.

    More feasible, indeed a reasonable possibility, is Joe Hockey, who has taken the arts of lying and abuse to new levels, and debased his department in ways that even his Liberal predecessors would not have contemplated.

    You can say all sorts of things about Peter Reith, for example, but he always showed respect for officials and the role of public servants. Hockey has politicised them, using a bureaucrat in political propaganda paid for by the taxpayer, while bumbling around still not really knowing his own portfolio. It could probably be said that he only took what Andrews had done and took it to its logical extreme (funny how Andrews gets a mention in two different contexts). But he added his own personal youch for sure. I will be watching North Sydney very closely.

  125. Ben Chifley's Ugly Brother said

    No such thing as a uniform swing – hasn’t been since 1987.

    People out there are buying Howard’s pork and once they get the pencil over the paper things will be a bit different to what the papers say. People who point to polls may wish to consider WHERE the swing to the ALP is – and in my experience it is generally in the safest coalition and ALP seats.

    Living in a tourist town and listening to people from far and wide it is obvious that there will be some surprises – and I’d like some of the people above who are talking twenty-thirty seats changing hands to please identify which particular seats?

    On top of that the ALP is, as usual, doing it’s damnedest to lose the election: being Howard-lite, that nong in Herbert along with a string of other less impressive candidates and the advantage that incumbency has when so many in the community have grown sick of the politicking and tuned out. The amateurism of the Victorian Rights At Work campaign means we are unlikely to pick up anything in Victoria, but if we do it will be Corangamite (in a boilover) and McEwen. Baressi will hang onto Deakin by a mix of bullsh*t (running as the local lad) and state issues.

    Bennelong is the biggest beat up, Howard will hang on. Wentworth? Dunno – there’s the King factor from last time and the possibility that Turnbull will get a kick in the cods on primaries and scrape back in on preferences from aggrieved, but wealthy, environmentalists. He only has to win by one.

    On the flip side there will be some surprises. Solomon, Hughes and Sturt among them.

    I see ALP gains as follows (by state)

    NSW
    1. Lindsay (just, mightn’t know until Tuesday)
    2. Eden-Monaro (in a canter)
    3. Page (Big grassroots campaign here for a few years now to dump the Nats, local National Ian Causely on the record as describing Kev Andrews as a “d*ckhead” for bringing in workchoices)
    4. Macquarie
    5. Hughes (in a boilover)

    QLD

    6. Bonner (easily)
    7. Moreton (easily)
    8. Longman (good campaign)

    NT

    9. Solomon (another good campaign and good candidate, grog laws annoying whitey)

    SA

    10. Kingston (always was going to happen)
    11. Wakefield (Libs implode)
    12. Makin (The ALP candidate is a gem)
    13. Sturt (In an Australian remake of Legally Blonde)

    TAS

    14. Braddon (Pulp Mill, Mersey hospital pork backfires)
    15. Bass (Pulp Mill, Excellent Your Rights At Work campaign)

    Biggest Swing – Hughes 10%

    Smallest Swing in 2PP – Hinkler 1.2% to ALP, Nat retain

    15 seats fall to ALP. This gives Howard a majority, Slim, but a majority – and the little rattus rattus will gobble it up like Sideshow Bob in the famous Springfield Mayoral Elections.

    Libs to hang on by the hair of their chinny, chin chin in the ACT senate.

    The ray of hope?

    One, or more, of the following must fall to the ALP to get Rudd over the line:

    ? Hasluck (very do-able if someone keeps Kev Reynolds in a box for the next ten days)
    ? Dobell (will go close but the enthusiasm among the punters ain’t there on the ground – the campaign ‘peaked’ to early in this seat)
    ? Stirling (could surprise)
    ? Bennelong (unlikely, a scare on primaries for the tosser, but enough gravitas for his booth workers to sell their how-to-vote as a “vote for the Prime Minister”)
    ? Wentworth (see above)
    ? Corangamite (good local campaign)
    ? McEwen (despite the local campaign)
    ? Dickson (If there’s a landslide)
    ? Bowman (need luck)
    ? Hinkler (candidate trouble)

    And Nathan, no, I’m not a right-wing nutter – I’m a union member who’s just got back from handing out Your Rights At Work flyers outside a train station for a few hours – found this site via google driven by my churning thoughts on just WHERE these 16 seats are coming from.

  126. raydixon said

    Labor will take Indi (16.3% swing required) from Sophie Mirabella, who has shot her mouth off and shot herself in the foot.

    The abattoir issue in Wangaratta is massive and she’ll struggle to poll 30% there. She’s suspect in the Ovens Valley over the tobacco closure and the secret donation she received from the tobacco giant BAT. Elsewhere she’s just plain unliked.

    Calling her opponent Zuvele Leschen “a weak & gutless weasel” and accusing her of “sucking up” to State politicians over water issues doesn’t help a lot either.

    Expect someone to say, “If the ALP wins Indi it will win everything else” pretty early on election night.

  127. Rod (121) I wonder if you were thinking of Eeyore:

    The Old Grey Donkey, Eeyore, stood by himself in a thistly corner of the Forest, his front feet well apart, his head on one side, and thought about things. Sometimes he thought sadly to himself, “Why?” and sometimes he thought, “Wherefore?” and sometimes he thought, “Inasmuch as which?” – and sometimes he didn’t quite know what he was thinking about.
    Just about sums it up.

  128. Rod said

    I did indeed mean Eeyore, Roger. Not quite sure how Tigger got in there! Must have bounced his way into that bit of my very little brain. Probably distracted by the bending of a perfectly good thistle or some such!😉

  129. Mike Cusack said

    ALP 92, Ind 3, the rest a rabble. Biggest swing, Eden Monaro (due to the quality of some of the “how to vote” helpers. Smallest swing, Wentworth. Malcolm Turnbull to receive a swing in the order of 2-3%. Biggest loss to the Parliament, Andrew Bartlett.

  130. Coalition 79
    ALP 69
    Ind 2

    Reasons: ingrained hostility towards optimism

  131. 2 tanners said

    You can say all sorts of things about Peter Reith, for example, but he always showed respect for officials and the role of public servants. Hockey has politicised them

    Comment by Lukas (@124)

    Is this the same Peter Reith who was the architect of children overboard with the attendant plausible deniability (requiring the cooperation of public servants)? The one who was quoted as saying that the only thing wrong with bureaucrats was that they didn’t eat their own children?

    Back on topic, Labor 80, LNP 68, Ind 2. Any other gains will be on wafer thin margins and will be lost at the next election, when the honeymoon has worn off and Labor has to fight the problems of either economic mismanagement or recant on some of the more inflationary promises. Or both.

  132. Chris Younger said

    Labor – 90
    Coalition – 58
    Ind. – 2

    Biggest swing to occur in Queensland seat of Herbert 12.5%

  133. Will Lowes said

    Being bored or slightly insane (not necessarily in that order), 2 weeks ago I spent a day (yes, I lead a boring life..) sifting through Newspoll state by state, awarding (like a beauty prize) seats to Left and Right, based on state swings, rural swings, urban swings, beautiful girls in swings… Even gave the 1950s Pin Up Boy, the benefit of the doubt and awarded him ALL the margin of error. Result: Labor by six.

    Two days later I did the same with Nielsen, exactly the same parameters. Result: Labor by six.

    In the meantime, the Ruddster is breezing along (it was even sunny in Brissy for his campaign launch today) while the 1950s Pin up Boy has lost his stick and can no longer click it along a white picket fence. It was cold and wet in Brissy on Monday for his launch..

    All this to say I think the Labor lead has probably stretched since my poll prognostications. So, taking a punt, Labor by 16. Biggest swings I think will be in northern Queensland, of all places. The Ruddster’s a country Queensland boy Made Good. And that counts a heap in such places.. and why not? It’s not impossible now that Leichhardt will go.

    But my greatest wish is to see Maxine win in Bennelong, and I think she will. Then whatisname and Hyacinth can retire to a ranch in Texas. He could become a deputy sheriff…you never know.

    Will

  134. Chatswood Statsman said

    ALP 95 Ind 2 LNP 53

    Go Maxine!

  135. Sean said

    L-NP 76, ALP 72, Ind 2

    Just to be a bit different!

  136. PASOK said

    Re: Ben Chifley’s Ugly Brother.

    As far as Qld goes:

    * Add Blair to the list. Cameron Thompson has lost country districts and added Ipswich to his electorate. It will be one of the first Qld seats to fall. The bookies have it listed as already gone.

    * Don’t discount Ryan. Howard’s Goodna bypass for the Ipswich Motorway crosses through the more affluent, Liberal-voting, parts of Ryan and they are not averse to voting Labor (see 2001 by-election) when they want to send a message. I consider Ryan more likely than Dickson to change hands.

    * Flynn is more marginal than people expect. It includes some big coal mining towns that are Labor strongholds. Even the recently deceased “Tree of Knowledge” lived there.

    * Petrie is another seat at risk. It adjoins Wayne Swan’s Lilley, and it is a mortgage belt area where the swing is more likely to be on.

    I predict (without any certainty) Rudd to win Blair, Bonner, Moreton, Herbert, Petrie, Ryan, Flynn.
    Outsider: McPherson.

  137. VP said

    Time to revise your estimates, ladies and gentlemen. Lateline has just shown a clip of Tony Abbott saying that WorkChoices has stripped away protections and that those who don’t like what they’re being offered should go get a job somewhere else.

    Hold onto your hats.

  138. Ben Chifley's Ugly Brother said

    Nop, it wasn’t the same Peter Reith – because the brains behind children overboard was Ian Hanke and Arthur Sinodinis.

    And as much as I would like to lay claim to WorkChoices being the downfall of the Howard Government, and after a day on a pre-poll booth I’m a bit more sanguine about that assumption, I think the real demise of the Howard government comes off the back of the loss of Arthur Sinodinis – because it now comes down to – as Comrade Abbott so inarticulately expressed it tonight – not so much to what they are saying, but how they are saying it.

  139. gusface said

    at least 100 seats to labor (probably 116)

    3 or 4 ind/green

    the rest an unrepresentative swill

    ps i just love abbotts admission about worstchoices

  140. Ben Chifley's Ugly Brother said

    PASOK

    Thanks for that – interesting. I heard today that there are some double digit swings expected in Queensland. A report from Workplace Express quoted unnamed ACTU sources that definitely inked in big swings in Blair and Ryan. Notice the time Rudd is spending in places like Flynn as well – which means these seats must be on the ALP’s radar.

    If the ALP can pick up four (or more) seats in Queensland I will be wrong and Rudd will be having a port with His Excellency the GG.

  141. Martin B said

    Well, I think I’m with Asanque and ThinWhiteDuke.

    84/64/2.

    Here’s my calculator, with the exception that I think that Wentworth will swing less than average and Turnbull will just hold on.

    http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=0&nsw=6.5&vic=6&qld=6.5&wa=4.5&sa=6.5&tas=6.5&act=6.5&nt=6&retiringfactor=1

  142. Anthony from Deakin said

    ALP 88, Coalition 60, Ind 2

    Surprise: ALP to win Corangamite.

  143. nomad3 said

    labour 94 coalition 54 Ind 2

  144. nomad3 said

    labour 94 coaltion 54 Ind 2

    biggest swing Goldstein 9 % to the ALP

  145. John VK said

    92 Labor 54 coalition with 4 indies or minor parties. (7.5% swing uniform used against polls at 2PP at 10 or 11 swing tracking relentlessly all year).

  146. Dangerous said

    Apparently I’m not on here yet.

    I think ALP 96, Ind 3 & Coalition 51.

    Biggest swing will be in Leichardt
    Smallest swing will be in Murray

    Fingers crossed

  147. steve_e said

    ALP = 100
    LIBS / NATS = 48
    INDEPENDENTS = 2
    Biggest swing = GREY (SA)

    Smallest swing = CURTIN (WA)

  148. paulyt said

    I didn’t enter anything about smallest swing so I will now.

    I will go with my own seat of Chifley, it swung by about 2% to the Libs last election and I think it will swing a little bit back to Labor this time.

  149. Amaranthus said

    ALP = 94
    COAL = 53
    IND = 3
    Biggest Swing = Fadden (16.2%)
    Smallest Swing = Brand (2.1%)

    No seat will swing to coalition.

    National TPP: 55.4 : 44.6

  150. Rod said

    I’ll stick with my overall guestimate in Richard Farmers similar competition over at Crikey (you have to pick state and senate results there too, as well as the Coalition primary)

    House of Reps

    Labor 89
    Coalition 59
    Indep 2

  151. Socrates said

    Sorry I didn’t see this before. Here is the guess I mde at teh start on Williams site.

    Labor 87
    Lib/Nat 61
    Independent 2

    Biggest Swing Ryan (Qld) 12% to Labor
    Smallest swing O’Connor (WA)
    Surprise ACT Senate (No Libs)

  152. JustAlarmed said

    Sorry Poss,

    Did not read the full rules. I add to my seat prediction at 6 above:
    ALP 95
    Libs 54
    Indep 2

    My swing predictions:
    Biggest swing to ALP – Grey + Adelaide
    Biggest swing to Coalition/Least swing to ALP – Brand + Cowan

    That’ll do, Poss, that’ll do.

  153. Return with Interest said

    Furher to my tips at 122.

    ALP 90 Lib/Nats 57 Indeps 3

    Biggest Grey + Adelaide
    Smallest Braddon + Brand

  154. ALP 91
    LNP 57
    Ind 2

    Biggest ALP swing Gray 25.5%
    Smallest ALP swing Brand 1.7%
    Biggest LIB swing Curtain 2.8%

  155. Sorry, that should say

    Biggest ALP swing Gray 15.5

  156. paul said

    ALP 89

    LP/NAT 59

    IND 2

    Biggest swing- Ryan / Kingston

    Smallest Swing- Stirling / Hasluck

  157. Gecko said

    ALP 104
    LNP 43
    OTH 3

  158. Nick said

    Ok, I’m going with:

    ALP: 95
    LNP: 53
    IND: 2

    Biggest swing: Leichhardt (ALP to win)
    Smallest swing: Stirling (Libs to hold)

  159. Ian said

    103 seats to Labor. Biggest swing in Fairfax. Smallest swing in Stirling.

  160. Andrew said

    Labor 82
    LNP 66
    Other 2

    Best for Labor Leichhardt 15%
    Best for Libs Cowan 3%

  161. Enemy Combatant said

    Minor alteration. 3 Indies; ALP 91 Coal. 56.

  162. Enemy Combatant said

    Coal.57 Biggest swing Hindmarsh, Smallest, Stirling.

  163. Amber Dekstris said

    ALP 84
    Posted this prediction at OzPolitics in February and see no reason to change. Certainly, Howard would lately be less confident about his chances given recent events and an embarrassingly poor campaign.

  164. chinda63 said

    ALP – 89
    LNP – 59
    IND – 2

    Largest swing (pro ALP) – Mayo
    Smallest swing (pro ALP)- Solomon

    There will be NO pro LNP swing anywhere, except for votes moving from LP to NP and vice versa.

  165. KC said

    Biggest swing 13.7% North Sydney, 14.3% Pearce.
    Smallest swings Denison adn Lyons in tassy.

  166. Pancho said

    96
    52
    2

    Biggest swing McPherson lets say 15, smallest to Labor Stirling.

  167. EconoMan said

    94
    54
    2

    Biggest: Ryan
    Smallest: Brand

  168. LuckyDave said

    ALP 100
    Crazy Toryscum 48
    1 Crazy Ind
    1 Crazier Bob Katter

    Biggest Swing Moncrieff +18% to ALP
    Smallest Batman on the basis that there is not much room to move further to the ALP +2%

  169. potts said

    92
    56
    2
    big swing 13% leichardt alp
    smallest brand 1% alp

    seeya johnny

  170. absolut_andrew said

    ALP: 91.
    Coalition: 57.

    Hopefully I’m just being conservative!

  171. Simon Wilson said

    Hi Poss – love your work!

    ALP 85
    Coalition 62
    Independents 3

    Seat with biggest swing for Labor will be LEICHHARDT @ 13%.
    Best swing for Liberals will be Wentworth with +1.5 to libs – sadly.
    Other noticeable loss will be the non-party status of the Nationals.

  172. rjch said

    90 / 58 / 2
    Biggest ALP swing is McPherson, enough to win my bet!

  173. Neocom said

    I’m going out on the limb of my gum tree

    ALP 101
    Coalition 47
    Independents 2

  174. Evatt said

    In or a penny, in for pound

    ALP 99
    Coalition 48
    Independents 3

  175. Tom said

    Surely the best Government (Coalition) result will be in Calare.

  176. Evatt said

    Swings and roundabouts:

    Biggest to ALP swing Grey 15%
    Smallest to ALP Swing Stirling 0.5%
    Biggest Coalition Swing Curtain 0.3%

  177. barney said

    i have been saying for months it would be 92 labor

  178. Possum Comitatus said

    Tom, now that the seat is vacant, it’s actually become what you’d call nominally a National Party seat. So we probably have to exclude Calare.

  179. CL de Footscray said

    I’m sticking with what I said some time ago on Poll Bludger:

    ALP – 89
    Lib/Nats – 59
    Independents – 2

    Although i think it could be even better …

  180. Tom said

    If you say so, hombre. You write the rules.

  181. blindoptimist said

    Not less than 90 for Labor.

  182. House o’ Reprobates:

    ALP 76
    LNP 72
    IND 2

    Big Swingers: Adelaide
    Lil Swingers: Brand

  183. ross said

    ’twill look like this:

    ALP – 104

    LNP – 44

    ORS – 2

  184. august said

    Over on PB some weeks ago I tipped 102 seats to ALP. I’m sticking with that, being a glass half full person, and I too would love to see 14% in Corangamite where the incumbent shows none of the qualities that one might hope for in a representative.

  185. Hasta la Vista Rodente said

    ALP 96
    Coalition of the letterboxing 52
    Ind 2

    Biggest swing – Lindsay 12%
    Smallest swing – Brand 2%

    TPP 56.1% ALP, 43.9% Coalition OTL

  186. Conrad said

    Grey to fall in SA. Only the third time in history a seat has fallen with bigger than a double digit swing

  187. Ben Chifley's Ugly Brother said

    After an astonishingly inept coalition campaign (Who would have thought that Howard had outsourced his brain to Arthur “Zelig” Sinodinis all this time?) I am reassessing my position and see the situation as vastly better for the ALP

    ALP 78
    LNP 70
    IND 2

    Biggest swing 2PP – Hughes 14%
    Smallest Swing 2PP – Wentworth 2%

    TPP ALP 53.8 LNP 46.2

  188. Boothby Boother said

    The Kevins: 90 seats
    The Goners: 58 seats
    Indies: 2

    Biggest seat swing: Hindmarsh
    Smallest seat swing: Stirling

  189. omgrufmsyria said

    Kevin07: 88
    Rodent: 59
    Indeps: 3

    Biggest seat swing: Calare
    Smallest seat swing: Cowan

  190. Cleanfred said

    I thought that I was the only one . I most certainly an not. Thank you Mr possum, Its been a pleasure to meet you. Good riddance to bad rubbish.

    ALP 88
    LNP 60
    IND 2

    Biggest swing North sydney %12
    Smallest swing Sterling %0.5

  191. AJH said

    ALP: 88
    Coalition: 60
    Independents: 2

    Biggest Swing: Grey
    Smallest Swing: Cowan

  192. Faith said

    I’m predicting a somewhat conservative:
    Labor: 83
    Coalition: 65
    Independents: 2

    Biggest swing to Labor: Grey, S.A

    Biggest swing to the Libs: Cowan W.A
    I’m from Perth and let me tell you, there are a lot of rich, self interested (read liberal voting) people living in W.A. We’re going to have a busy time in Hasluck, Swan, Cowan and Stirling keeping Labor on top.

    I would love to see the Liberals out in the wilderness for the next 6 years after a savage annihilation on Saturday, but I’m a bit nervous. I have spent half my life under Howard and if Australians are as apathetic this year as the have been since 1998, then the election may not be as spectacular as I hope. Yet I still hope!

  193. Mike Keating said

    (44) Labour landslides would have to include 1993 as well as 1983 I think. If the election is over while WA is still voting that’s all you need to know.

    As to predictions: I’m going for ALP big swing driving them to victory – but some issues in the marginals seats limit the extent of the majority to 18. But Howard loses his seat.
    ALP 84
    LP/NP 64
    INDI 2

    Plus, as a bonus prediction, Rudd slightly increases his majority in 2010, as those marginals come across despite as small swing against the government! How’s that for brassy!

  194. bobk said

    Labor: 81
    Coalition: 67
    Independents: 2
    Biggest swing to Labor: Grey, S.A
    Biggest swing to the Libs: Brand W.A

  195. Union thug said

    I’m in another comp at work where I’ve gone with 81 seats to ALP. Reading the other entries on this page, my guess appears conservative. I’ll go with 83 to ALP here. 2 will remain with Independents, 65 Libs.

    Robertson will have the biggest swing. The YR@W campaign is going great guns up there. They’re all over it and the ALP candidates beautifal face is everywhere with the Liberal MP virtually nowhere to be seen. It’s people power in action and a fantastic vibe. It made me want to move up there.

  196. Lenny Leverhulme said

    Labour: 98
    Coalition: 50
    Independent: 2

  197. Peter K said

    Labor Gains
    NSW: Parramatta, Dobell, Lindsay, Eden-Monaro, Page, Bennelong, Hughes, Macarthur, Greenway.
    Qld: Bonner, Moreton, Blair, Longman, Herbert, Petrie, Bowman, Forde, Leichardt
    Vic: Deakin, McEwen, LaTrobe
    SA: Wakefield, Kingston, Makin, Boothby
    WA: Hasluck, Stirling
    Tas: Bass, Braddon,
    NT: Solomon

    So that makes 90. I think they will get a few more, but in none of the others would I have them as favourites. Possibilities (in approx order of probability) include: Dawson, Gilmore, Robertson, Sturt, Corangamite,Paterson, McMillan, Fisher, Ryan,Cowper,Dickson, Dunkley. All up I’ll go for 95 seats to the ALP.

    Biggest swing: Rankin.
    Other contenders: Forde, Griffith, Oxley, Banks.
    Generally I think seats currently held 0-10% by the ALP will swing the most. The “Howard Battler” seats will also swing hard. Contrary to most I think the swing will be smaller than average in established “doctors wives” areas.
    Smallest Swing: Wentworth
    Other contenders: Lingiari, Stirling, Curtin.

    ALP TPP: 54.5%

  198. Peter K said

    Oops…Wentworth should also be on the possibilities list, between Dawson & Gilmore.

  199. Sean Isbester said

    Labor 100 seats (including 22 in QLD)
    Forces Of Evil 45
    Independent 3
    Biggest Swing Grey
    Smallest Kalgoorlie
    Biggest Scalp Of Evil (Costello/Shrek tied)
    Liberal Party to self disembowel

  200. Brian said

    ALP 76
    Coalition 72
    Ind 2

    having spent formative years watching successive annihilations of 75,77 and 80 and reliving that through the depondancy of the 01 and 04 disasters, I have no confidence in the result until the rodent sheds a tear if that is possible.

    That said, the potential for the exilaration of 72 or 83 is tantalising…

    Biggest swing: Macarthur
    Smallest swing: Kalgoolie

  201. bryn said

    ALP: 91
    Coalition: 57
    Independents: 2

    Biggest Swing: Forde then McPherson
    Smallest Swing: Brand then Stirling

  202. tully said

    ALP to win 77
    Coalition to win 71
    Independents: 2

    Biggest Swing: Ryan
    Smallest Swing: Curtin

  203. High Noon said

    ALP to win: 91
    Coalition to: win 57
    Ind: 2

    Biggest swing: Ryan 12.1% (my home seat, the natives are in a strange mood…)

    Smallest swing: Hasluck (Mate of mine lives in Kenwick and there is sooo much money about)

  204. Hal9000 said

    ALP 88
    Coalition 60
    Independents 2

    Biggest swing: Ryan
    Smallest swing: Flynn (I know it’s a notional swing, being a new seat and all.)

  205. An Interested American said

    Can an American play at this?

    Short Version:
    ALP: 94 (55.3% of 2PP)
    Ind: 2
    Coalition: 54 (44.7% of 2PP)
    Biggest Swings: Leichardt (QLD) (runner up: North Sydney (NSW))
    Smallest Swings: Cowan (WA) (runner up: Wentworth (NSW))

    Long Version: Watching from afar, I get the sense that down the stretch (and especially this week, the Coalition has been getting pretty nakedly desperate this week in much the same way that the Republicans did last year in the midterm congressional elections. The incident in Lindsay was in particular, a self inflicted shotgun blast to the foot from a party who was already down to one leg.

    With all that said, I think it will be a Labor romp through Queensland and New South Wales. The carnage there, should be at the very least, pretty impressive. Labor should get anywhere from 53.5 to 55.5 percent of the 2PP, though a result between 56 and 57 would not be entirely surprising. I still think that to some extent, WA saves Howard from looking really, really awful in the end result.

    As a final special note from an American and an Obama supporter, I believe that Howard is about to get what he so richly deserves. Barack Obama is currently surging into the lead the crucial primary state of Iowa. Meanwhile, John “Al Qaida is praying for Barack Obama and the Democrats to win” Howard is currently surging off the cliff to political oblivion on Saturday. Finally, Kevin Rudd, the guy who called Howard on his assinine remarks, will also get what he deserves….the Prime Ministership.

    ALP pickups

    QLD (11): Bonner, Moreton, Lindsay, Blair, Herbert, Bowman, Longman, Flynn, Petrie, Leichardt, Ryan
    NSW(10): Parramatta, Eden-Monaro, Bennelong, Dobell, Page, Cowper, Robertson, Paterson, Hughes, North Sydney
    VIC (4): Deakin, McMillan, Corangamite, McEwen
    TAS (2): Braddon, Bass
    NT (1): Solomon
    SA (4): Makin, Kingston, Wakefield, Boothby, Sturt
    WA (2): Hasluck, Stirling

  206. Roderic Pitty said

    Labor 87
    Lib/Nat 61
    Indep 2

    Biggest swings: Makin + Grey
    Smallest swings: Curtin + O’Connor

    Plus Socrates is right about ACT Senate, a real breakthrough.

    “Aristotle”

  207. bmwofoz said

    ALP 93
    IND 2
    Liberal/National 55

    Biggest swing McPherson
    Smallest swing Melbourne Ports
    Roughies Goldstein, North Sydney or Casey

  208. simonr said

    Coalition by 2

    Biggest swing to the Greens in Melbourne
    Smallest swing Cowan

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