Posted by Possum Comitatus on November 15, 2007
Putting on your hypothetical hat for second, what would happen if the next Newspoll came out and looked like this (the black line is the hypothetical)
The last time there was a worst possible time for a high ALP Newspoll to come out for the Coalition, it happened.
Back in September with APEC. A few days before it came out, we were joking at the possibility and wondering how far the panic would spread were such a thing to occur. After it came out, it caused a leadership fiasco.
I’m of the view that the worst possible time for a high ALP Newspoll between now and the election for the Coalition is the next one, whenever that may be.
So if a 57/43 ALP TPP Newspoll came out – what result do you think it would have on the campaign, and perhaps even voter sentiment?
Likewise, to balance it up here – what do you think a 52/48 ALP TPP Newspoll would do to the campaign?
I’ve been finding it interesting lately that the Coalition seems to be one bad poll away from an implosion, and ALP supporters seem to be one bad poll away from mass suicide.
Apparently tomorrows ACN is 54/46
Over at the OZ, the new quarterly you have when you arent having a quarterly newspoll has been released, which is the state and demographic breakdown of their last 2 polls.