The Sunday Round-up

Over in the sidebar, you might have noticed the rolling 4 poll average. Well this is what it’s looked like over November, with the red line being the ALP TPP vote and the bars being the seats that TPP vote would have delivered to the ALP using a national uniform swing.

Out on the hustings we have a Taverner Poll of the mortgage belt – it’s more qualitative than quantitative but gives something to chew over on how the mortgage belt seats might be looking.

There’s an EMRS poll of Tassie suggesting the 2 Coalition held Tasmanian seats will fall.

There’s a Galaxy marginal seat poll as well for anyone that can be bothered to look at it. Their primary vote swings look like rubbish, their preference allocations in some places look as peculiar as these Galaxy grouped seat polls usually do considering what else we know is happening on the ground in these seats, the seat selection worthy of a good head shake, and they’ve ended up with a preferred PM rating in SA for Rudd that is actually higher than the ALP TPP vote – quite the effort considering the way that usually plays out. As happens with these things, they’ve pumped up the sample size at the end of the campaign in an attempt to gain bragging rights. I don’t know why they bother sometimes.

Mr Mumbles, Peter Brent has an interesting ACNielsen data breakdown here that’s worth looking at.

But the laugh of the day has to go to Christopher Pyne and family. Desperation writ large?

I wonder how many votes can be scrounged with the whole “Vote for me, my wife reckons I’m great!” line?

And for something completely different, if you head over here you can run your blog through the “blog readability test” which estimates “What level of education is required to understand your blog?”.

My result:

Whoops – sorry about that folks

Mini UPDATE:

BillBowe Baggins of PollBludger fame informs me that over the last few hours the intelligence level of the site has improved to this:

OK, I want to know who in the comments section was responsible for this chicanery eh?

Come on, own up – who has been channeling Terry Tao?

UPDATE:

There’s a new Morgan out at 55.5/44.5 to the ALP and well as some marginal seat polling.

Beware of the commentary about individual seats, the marginal seat polling has an MoE of between 5.5 and 10% per State, and about 15% per seat.

The only useful things here are the overall national result of 55.5/44.5 with a minimum MoE of 2.5% and the overall marginal result of 54/46 with a minimum 3% MoE .