Chilling Steadiness and Deadly Intent
Posted by Possum Comitatus on November 20, 2007
Don’t you just love that cracker of a line from Peter Hartcher about the behaviour of the polls?
As a new day dawns, the institution of Newspoll Tuesday – campaign edition, comes to a close.
And what new excitement does the Newspoll bring us on this solemn occasion?
None at all – its more of the type of business as usual that Peter Hartcher described so well.
The headline figure gives us a TPP estimate of 54/46, with the ALP down 1 and Coalition up 1 since the last Newspoll.
On the primaries we have the ALP down 2 to 46, and the Coalition up 1 to 41, giving us the following (thanks to George P. again). These results come from a survey of 1696 people giving us an MoE of around the 2.5% mark.
The Greens vote is at their highest level for a long time, at 7 points matching their 2004 election result of 7.2. The non-green minors are stuck on the same 6 points they have been for the last 4 polls.
So Newspoll Tuesday – ‘campaign edition’ ends with the same more of the same that it’s been delivering for weeks.
But the one thing I wanted to show you all today was the long term trend since the 2004 election. If we take the ALP two party preferred vote between November 2004 and November 2006 and run a linear trend using a simple regression through that period, and then we project that pre-Rudd trend through to today – look at what we find:
The ALP two party preferred vote is currently at its long term, pre-Rudd trend.
Now isn’t that interesting.