Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

Two Party Preferred Betting

Posted by Possum Comitatus on November 21, 2007

Sportingbet has announced a new thing to bet on – the two party preferred vote.

I’m surprised it’s taken so long for one of the companies to do this, but it might be interesting:

The media release goes like this:

 

SPORTINGBET ANNOUNCES TWO PARTY PREFERRED ELECTION MARKET

 

Sportingbet Australia has today launched an exclusive market which invites punters to predict Labor’s share of the two party preferred vote.

“We’re asking punters to nominate Labor’s share of the two party preferred vote” said Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan. “This could be one of the most interesting markets we’ve launched on the 2007 election. It really tests the political insider to put their money where their mouth is”

“At the last election, Labor’s share of the two party preferred vote was 47.3 per cent. The high water marks for Labor since the second world war were Hawke’s election in 1983 with 53.2 per cent and Whitlam’s election with 52.7 per cent in 1972. The polls, however, suggest that Labor could pass both of these figures.”

“We’ve installed the early favourite as Labor to achieve 53.00 to 53.99 per cent of the two party preferred vote. It’s interesting to note that Labor could achieve a vote as high as 52 per cent and still not win the election” Mr Sullivan concluded.

—————————————————————————————————————————-

 The starting prices are:

Labor’s Share of Two Party Preferred Vote

Less than 48%   $26

48-49.99            $13

50-51.99            $4.40

52-52.99            $3.50

53-53.99            $2.75

54-55.99            $3.75

56% or more      $11

 

It will be interesting to see how it moves over the next few days

 

39 Responses to “Two Party Preferred Betting”

  1. Kirribilli Removals said

    How much are you putting on Possum?

    We know you like to put your money where your regressions are!

  2. Moondark said

    Seen this? Apparently now there are too many variables to call the result.

    http://www.crikey.com.au/Election-2007/20071121-Abjorensen-Too-many-variables-to-be-sure-of-a-Ruddslide.html

    BTW, love your stuff. I am a latecomer to your site. Reasoned, logical, sensible. Not like some of the stuff we are seeing elsewhere by very highly paid individuals.

  3. alpal said

    Possum, Are you at your computer on election night? Or better things to do?

  4. djm said

    I’m surprised they don’t have a market open for the number of seats in the House or Reps.

  5. typingisnotactivism said

    Possum, you have been rocking for the last several weeks and your site has really been a constant treasure trove. Not betting on the election because I don’t want to jinx it, and even at the 4.15 that the Coalition has now blown out to a quadrupled return wouldn’t compensate for such a soul-squishing outcome… although I guess it would finance anaesthetic for about a week 🙂
    Hoping to see perhaps a final round of predictions from your good self before Saturday night. I’m hoping for a Ruddocracy with a Greened Senate and would absolutely LOVE to see Maxine deliver a huge FcKew to Jonnie in Bennelong. Fingers crossed to the point of splintering!

  6. steve_e said

    Poss a return of $3.75 for $1 seems good to me. From previous analysis, 54.0% to 56% seems about right.

    When you think about it, there is really a double dividend (money in and JWH out) form this outlay.

  7. Cath said

    I know this is off the topic but I was wondering what people thought of this Australian front page article;

    ‘Staffer lands Newhouse in row’ http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22795651-601,00.html

    “The revelation that Mr Newhouse’s campaign manager, Rose Jackson, has spoken out against the Jewish state has the potential to hurt his chances in the marginal eastern Sydney seat of Wentworth, which has the largest number of Jewish voters of any electorate in Australia.

    The Liberal Party also stepped up its attack on the legitimacy of Mr Newhouse’s candidacy yesterday, naming him among 13 Labor candidates across the country it claims may not be able to run.

    Labor dismissed the claims, raised by Liberal frontbencher Andrew Robb, as baseless and a sign of desperation by the Government.”

    Does Newhouse still have a chance? Despite all the good news I have to admit I’m still browsing the New Zealand job market online. Desperate rats can be dangerous.

    Also just wanted to thank you Possum – love your work.

  8. Aristotle said

    He’s framing to 135%. That means if he balances his book equally with his bets he will make 35% regardless.

    If you want to bet, I would wait until his odds lengthen on all the possibilities.

    By way of reference, he frames his overall result for the election at 5%.

    Bit of a difference.

  9. Enemy Combatant said

    The following is a courtesy cut-and-paste for patrons who find the task of Scrooling The Bludger somewhat daunting of late.

    “80
    NB Says:
    November 21st, 2007 at 9:42 am
    72 Spiros

    Facing off against Richardson perhaps, quoting the dead parrot sketch.

    ‘E’s not pinin’! ‘E’s passed on! This government is no more! He has ceased to be! ‘E’s expired and gone to meet ‘is maker! ‘E’s a stiff! Bereft of life, ‘e rests in peace! If you hadn’t nailed ‘im to the electorate ‘e’d be pushing up the daisies! ‘Is metabolic processes are now ‘istory! ‘E’s off the twig! ‘E’s kicked the bucket, ‘e’s shuffled off ‘is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin’ choir invisibule!! THIS IS AN EX-GOVERNMENT!!”

  10. paul said

    Hmm, tempting odds, I’m falling into the 53-53.99% bracket myself. Maybe my money is better spent on beer though.

    BTW thanks for this blog, since July I have found the OZ unreadable without comming here first.

  11. Enemy Combatant said

    Quelle imbecile! Lose the o, add an l.

  12. canberra boy said

    A very curious market. Sportingbet are obviously being advised by someone who subscribes to the ‘nobody ever gets more than 53%’ canard. The 54% to 55.99% option is great value.

  13. Gippslander said

    I think portland have opened a market for ALP seeats, with current favorite 83.. I think they’re onle accepting bets less than $1000

  14. Tom said

    I want to express my thanks and gratitude for your blog, Poss. I have been a politics tragic since 1972 but have never seen anything like it! Thank you for taking the trouble to start and continue your blog!

  15. Possum Comitatus said

    Thanks all,

    Alpal, I’ll be near a computer on election night. Can’t say I’ll necessarily be in a state to make much sense, but I’ll be near a computer.

  16. Jess said

    When is the next poll? Is AC Neilson coming out tomorrow or Friday… getting withdrawals – need to know if anything has shifted!

  17. Dearest Possum Pie,

    I’m about to fly back home from work and may not be near a computer/internet so I’ll get in early.

    Thanks so much for applying your intellect and ability to this insightful blog page. You must/should feel very satisfied and proud of your achievements – particularly in such a short time.

    Will you be doing an election result round up and comparison of your modelling result to the actual election results? It’d be bloody interesting if you do!

    Anyway good luck and see you on the other side, on a sunnier day when the term ‘Prime Minister ‘precedes the name Kevin Rudd.

    Kind Regards,

    Jules

  18. hannah's dad said

    More than once, the candidate has said to me “What about the latest poll? It shows …….according to “The Australian””.
    And I have responded “Calm down, relax, take a deep breath,. Here take a look at Possum and his mates. See what they say? Feel better now? Good. Now get back out there and drum up some more votes!”

    Thanks Poss.

  19. steve_e said

    #18 as long as the Candidate is not for the Coalition this is very sound advice.

  20. John VK said

    Thanks very much Poss,

    My big commodore 64 just died and I’m on the SHARED other one so I probably wont be back until after the election.

    I have found your stuff witty, mathematical and the Company’s been pretty good too.

    I think we just saw the last shot of the dirt and dirty tactics unit. But you never know.

    Rudd wowed them in the Press club I thought.

    Regards.

  21. hannah's dad said

    #19
    What makes you think a Coalition candidate would be relaxed by reading Possum?
    [Followed by one of those winking face smiley thingys, that I can’t do, to remove any sting in the one-liner above]

  22. ruth johnson said

    Jules after watching mr rudd’s speech and answers to question time at the Press Club and not being a betting person myself, i feel confident in taking 54.99. Western Australians are trying to get rid of qld Toads but on Saturday finally should be sucessful in getting rid of “The Canberra Toad”
    Roll on Saturday
    Thanks Possum you made this election campaign bearable.
    Go Kevin,Go Kim Wilkie for Swan

  23. Steve said

    As well as the market for exact number of ALP seats (with the favourite currently being 83 to Labor) Portland now also have a two party preferred market. 53-54% is the current favourite, though they are giving longer odds (>$7) for $4.40).

  24. Steve said

    damn html tags messed that up.

    portland gives $7 for 51-52%, while sportingbet gives $4.40 for same.

  25. Big Tofu said

    G’day all, I know this is a little off topic (although it may help firm up any decision should you be toying with the idea of having a flutter on who will win and by what margin), but Brian Costar published this small piece on APO yesterday. For those of you who are “relaxed and comfortable” about Labor’s chances, this may not be of much interest, particularly as it echoes much of what Possum has repeatedly written. But for people like me who grab onto any opinion that argues their party of choice will come out on top it’s worth a read.

    http://www.apo.org.au/webboard/comment_results.chtml?filename_num=181224

  26. Christian said

    Possum, in your opinion, are there seats which have not been properly polled in the lead-up, or areas which have been poorly represented? Just trying to gauge the surprises. It seems a few people are asking about the rural seats in Qld and WA…

    .. but I hope you’re right. Jesus christ it would be awful to lose now.

  27. PASOK said

    Simon Jackman has an updated analysis of the betting markets on the Bulletin, this time seat by seat. Labor are now favourites in 20.

    Although this doesn’t necessarily comfortably match such a short price of Labor winning the election. I suspect plenty of punters (as I am) know there are going to be a swag of 6-8% seats falling but aren’t sure exactly which ones.

  28. Chatswood Statsman said

    PASOK @ 27

    That should be “favourites in 20 Coalition seats” !

  29. PASOK said

    Sorry, favourites in 20 seats currently held by LNP, and favourites in all the seats they already hold.

  30. Hope I Don't Wake Up said

    Thanks #25. Can’t get enough reassurance right now.

    I must join the chorus of thank-yous Poss. I would have been on mogadon by now without your blog.

    If it is not being too greedy to ask, are you planning to take off your Possum mask once the polls have been declared?

  31. Possum Comitatus said

    Christian – there are probably dozens of seats that havent been polled properly. Nearly every Labor safe seat would probably be in that basket😉

    I cant imagine the Libs would have blown too much money on seats like Berowra and Malle for instance, although those seats would have been lightly polled as part of the Coaltion 10%+ seats.

    Crosby Textor seem to breakdown their polling into the marginals (less than 5%), the 5-10% seats, and the 10%+. So on any given tracking poll there might only be a handful of people from any given seat polled, but then they pool those results into things like states, and margins etc

    So there’d be plenty of seats that havent been polled properly – polling a seat individually is actually rather expensive

  32. Refried Noodle said

    What are the chances of a TPP less thatn 53 and more than 56? None you say? Then bet up on these two options:

    53-53.99 $2.75
    54-55.99 $3.75

    If you split $100 on these two options ($58 on $2.75 and $42 on $3.75) you will get a return of approx $60 on whichever one it ends up being.

  33. Possum Comitatus said

    Hope I Don’t Wake Up asked “If it is not being too greedy to ask, are you planning to take off your Possum mask once the polls have been declared?”

    I’m actually partially decloaking tomorrow, you’ll have to read the Canberra Times😉

  34. The Steel Golem said

    I have just has a look at some seat by seat betting…Centrebet has a good deal in (my home electorate of) Ryan with Michael Johnson (LNP) $1.41 and Ross Daniels (ALP) $2.70. Poss called this one for Labor a few weeks ago. The ALP do need a big swing (10.4%) to pick this one up but the census data shows that electorates demographic being made up of mostly those young, blue and lower white collar workers where the large swings are on. There is also a local issue of a by pass that goes in Labors favour. Add to this the fact that anybody who has meet Michael “The Branch stacker” Johnson thinks he’s a bit of a dill and I think this will be at lot closer than the betting suggests.

  35. PASOK said

    I had a minor hit on Michael Johnson to be the soon ex-member for Ryan. That is one seat in the +7% bracket that I consider a favourite to fall when compared to others on similar margins.

    The Courier Mail has run a pretty hard campaign against him in Bris, and the Goodna Bypass issue will add at least 2-3% on top of the state-wide swing to Labor.

    The Ryan-istas voted for Labor in he 2001 by-election, so they aren’t totally averse to Labor.

  36. David S said

    Re Brian Costar article referred to at 25: http://www.apo.org.au/webboard/comment_results.chtml?filename_num=181224 . It has useful demolishing of furphies about narrowing and incumbent advantage. Recommended by Mumble: http://www.mumble.com.au/. However, it contains this clanger: ‘With the exception of 1972, all post-war changes of government in Australia have been landslides with swings of around 7 per cent, which is what the polls are saying will occur on Saturday.’ Assuming Brian is talking only about national elections, this is mostly wrong. The swings (TPP) were: 1949: 4.7; 1972: 2.5; 1975: 7.4 (there’s one); 1983: 3.6; 1996: 5.1. Apart from 1975, the other big swing was in 1969 (7.1) the ‘nearly’ election where the government didn’t change. Let’s hope 1969 doesn’t happen again.

  37. Marrickville Mauler said

    About the de-cloaking, most esteemed Possum – I for one am hoping it is indeed only partial, the air of mystery has been a bonus these past months on top of the wit and slashing evidence based analysis. Once your identity is known, where do you go with the lucrative movie series, “Possum Begins”, “Possum Returns”, “Possum Forever” etc etc plus the lucrative merchandise franchise?

  38. Enemy Combatant said

    “I’m actually partially decloaking tomorrow, you’ll have to read the Canberra Times”

    Cloak tease routines are fine, however, you do your best work in a mask, Poss. If the attack puppies at CT get a whiff, they could make you an “economic problem” offer you can’t refuse. Possums don’t sleep so good on a park bench.
    OTOH, a high profile suit from sore losers would be a great way to launch a career as Celebrity Pseph.

  39. Gippslander said

    Possum, Is it just my imagination, or did you publish a self portrait of yourself some months ago?
    If so, then I must say that my memory of it is of some left wing junior member of the House of Windsor!. I say that with the least possible offense that such an offensive remark can have.
    My impression is that you’re doing PhD work in econometrics. Best wishes for what will be a doubtless well deserved success in such a measurably dismal science.
    Be careful to only partially decloak. The Scarlet Pimpernel is much more intriguing than Sir Percy, and Scaramouche more amusing when belabouring his foes in masquerade than skewering them with his sword.

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