Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

Last Chance for the Election Competition

Posted by Possum Comitatus on November 22, 2007

This is the last chance to enter or update your predictions for the election tipping competition.

Number of seats is the name of the game, as well as the seat you think will have the biggest swing to Labor and the seat with the biggest swing to the Coalition (or if that doesnt eventuate, the seat with the smallest swing to Labor).

If the winning entry is tied, it goes to the person that chose the right swinging seat (you get 2 seats you can enter), and then if that’s tied it moves onto the least swinging seat for the ALP (again, 2 entries for that). If we still have a tie after those , the person who answered first wins.

The prize is a signed copy of Jon Kudelka’s 101 uses for a John Howard that I’ll mail to you anywhere in Australia.

There’s also a quick link in the sidebad for this, and all entries close when I wake up on Saturday morning and turn the comments off for the tipping competition post.

96 Responses to “Last Chance for the Election Competition”

  1. gusface said

    120 seats

  2. Possum Comitatus said

    Dont hold back Gus!:mrgreen:

  3. ho_hum said

    103 seats to Labor

  4. Leinad said

    92 Labor

  5. palooka said

    87 Labor, senate balance to Greens.

  6. Steve K said

    82 Labor. I’m a Geelong supporter and I was also extremely nervous before the Grand Final. I’ll be very happy for Labor to win by any margin.

    I hope the Greens hold the balance.

  7. TheSteelGolem said

    89 labor (inc Ryan) and 2 Ind

  8. Kate Ellis for PM said

    89 seats to Labor (I will stick with my old prediction). Being a Geelong supporter like Steve K, I am being cautious, even though I think that Kellygate is worth another 5 seats!

  9. John G said

    107 seats. Biggest swing to labor Cowper. Biggest swing to Liberal – Kooyong

  10. Rate Analyst said

    94 seats to Labor.

    Biggest swing: North Sydney, Ryan

    Least Swing: Brand, Hasluck

  11. bilko said

    87 for lab
    3 ind
    60 lib
    Lindsay biggest swing
    now that the candidates hubby has been expelled from the Liberal party following the muslim scare issue

  12. Rod said

    LABOR 89
    THE RAT PACK 59
    INDEP 2

  13. MB said

    This is the non-contraversial betting (I think!):

    Labor seats: 94

    Biggest swing: Bowman or Dickson in QLD

    Smallest swing: Cowan or Higgins (not that I’m happy about that last one, just think it’s realistic!)

  14. It's very close said

    I predict ALP at TPP of 52.1% and that yet they will have 71 seats – swings will be locked up in the wrong electorates.
    :((

  15. Cat said

    89 seats to Labor and just because I am an optimist biggest swing Berowra and smallest swing to Labor New England (or whatever Tony Windsor’s seat is called).

  16. Chris Mayer said

    What the hell, lets go with 92 seats to Labor.

    Biggest swing: North Sydney
    Smallest Swing: Cowan

  17. snowstorm said

    88 seats to Labor. TPP of 54.4%

  18. Peter R said

    ALP:85, LNP:63; IND:2 but I hope I am woefully short on my ALP prediction😉

  19. Francis said

    90 to labor

    Biggest swing to labor – Bowman or Leichhardt
    Smallest swing… i suspect Wentworth

  20. Mark said

    ALP: 85 IND: 3 LNP: 63

  21. Mark said

    Sorry poss: Biggest Swing to labor: Hughes 12.5%

    Coalition: No swings to smallest away: Canning. 2.5%

  22. Tin in the US said

    I tipped 110 weeks ago and today it’s looking good

    Biggest swing – against Shrek in North Sydney 14%

  23. NB said

    85 Seats

    Biggest swing – Bennelong

  24. alpal said

    ALP 91, Coalition 56, Ind 3. Biggest swing to Labor – MacPherson. Smallest swing to Labor – Cowan

  25. Peachy said

    Labor 81 seats
    Biggest swing – Warringah

    No evidence, just a feeling😉

  26. Kevin Brady said

    91 seats ALP. Biggest swing Hughes (Danna Vale – Lib by 8.5 % Could be won by Greg Holland). Biggest swing to Coalition – Higgins (Costello, Lib by 8.8 %; I predict he will pick up another 1 – 2 %).

  27. Paisano said

    ALP 75 seats. Richmond supporter, can’t hope for too much too soon.

  28. PaulC said

    ALP 79. Ind 2. Biggest swing Leichhardt.

    Very tempted to put in Labor losing, or governing with the support of Windsor, but being right wouldn’t be any consolation.

  29. PASOK said

    Labor 97 (incl. Bennelong)
    Fascists 51
    Indies 2

    Biggest Swing to Labor – Ryan / Macarthur.
    Smallest Swing to Labor – Maranoa. They’d elect a cow to Parliament, as long as it was a Nationals cow.

  30. Chatswood Statsman said

    ALP 96 (including Bennelong) Ind 2

  31. Severin said

    93 seats
    Biggest swing = Adelaide or Ryan
    Smallest swing = Grey

  32. Ratsak said

    I’ll stick with my previous predictions of:

    Labor 85 seats
    Biggest Labor Swing: Grey
    Best Liberal result: Brand
    First to fall: Bass

    although I reckon 85 is on the low side.

    As a tie breaker though if 85 does come up I’ll go for 4 independents

  33. dave said

    Labor 92 seats

  34. Steve K said

    Apologies in advance for this interruption:

    I listened to Howard’s NPC speech and Q & A until the Chairman called for the last question. I then turned the radio off. Did Ray Martin ask a further question and if so what was it and what was the response?

  35. Interested spectator said

    Mackerras at Crikey:

    “A problem I have is this fellow Possum Comitatus. I have a mental blockage against anyone who is anonymous so, of course, I have not corresponded with him.”

    Come on Possum, out yourself. Does BillBowe Baggins know who you are? Your avid readers want to know who it is that they have such a regard for.

  36. Rudi said

    Possum is there any truth in the rumour that you are Mark Textor?

  37. Chatswood Statsman said

    Very funny item by Irfun Yusuf in New Matilda

    http://www.newmatilda.com//home/articledetail.asp?NewsletterID=363&ArticleID=2605&email=1

  38. Scott Sims said

    89 Seats to the ALP.

    Biggest Swing: Adelaide
    Smallest: Brand

  39. Possum Comitatus said

    No Rudi – there’s no truth in that rumour. We know this to be true as Mark Textor was eaten by the liberal party a few days ago and I am still here posting!

  40. Martin L said

    Labor 97 seats
    Biggest Labor Swing: Moncrieff
    Best Liberal result: Cowan
    First to fall: Bonner

  41. Harry 'Snapper' Organs said

    Hmmm! Think I’ll stick with 91 to Labor. Biggest swing in his own seat of Griffith. Smallest swing in Leichardt. Regards, Poss. Your work has been a terrific contribution and given many of us many laughs.

  42. pjk said

    Labor 95 seats

    Biggest swing: Kingston
    Smallest: Stirling

  43. Tom said

    What chance Joyce will be invited to join a Labor cabinet?

  44. PASOK said

    So the prize is a signed copy?

    Is that signed by the author, or by El Rodente himself?

  45. Possum Comitatus said

    PASOK, just by Jon Kudelka.

  46. Gippslander said

    Labor 88 seats
    biggest swings Lindsay,Gray
    Smallest swings Wentworth, Forrest

    Happiest person on election night Me

  47. Expat follower said

    84 Labor, 64 Coalition, 2 independents. 2PP close to 53%. Bennelong to go, Wentworth not.

  48. Kevin Brady said

    Re: Gippslander @ 46: Forrest (South-West WA) could be somewhat of a surprise! The main candidates are Peter McFarlane (Lab), Nola Marino (Lib) and Noel Brunning (Indep). Noel Brunning is a newsreader for the local news, so has a high profile. The 2004 result TPP was near enough 60/40 with a near enough 3% swing to Libs. Peter Mc is directing preferences to Noel, which if Noel comes second could tip the Libs out of the seat!! A more likely result though is Noel at 3, and his prefs fall 50/50. Either way – the seat should see a fairly substantial swing (fingers crossed!!). Also, you have had a bit of a ‘sea change’ phenomenon, so some demographic shifts as well. Could make Forrest interesting for the first time in 40 years!!

  49. Kevin Brady said

    … to carry on (from 48), not predicting the seat will fall, just that it might not be the irrelevant pimple on the bum of Australian politics that it often is.

  50. Gezza said

    Well here goes: Labor 90 seats
    Biggest swing to Labor: Batman (Vic)
    Coalition/or least swing for Labor: Maranoa (Qld)

  51. Moondark said

    Labor 87 seats
    Biggest swing to Coalition: Calare to the Nats
    Biggest swing to Labor: Moreton
    Smallest swing to Labor: Cunningham, Kennedy

    Paisano — November 22, 2007 @ 1:46 pm, I feel your Richmond pain.

  52. Martin B said

    I’ll stick with my prediction from the last thread of 84/64/2 Alp/Coal/Ind and be very cheerful to be proved to be on the conservative side.

    Best for ALP: Bowman (2nd choice Herbert)
    Best for Coalition: Cowan

  53. Martin B said

    “Biggest swing to Labor: Batman (Vic)”

    Ferguson to get 95% of the vote???🙂

  54. SJP said

    100 Labor, 48 Coalition, 2 Independents. Biggest swing to Labor North Sydney

    Biggest swing to Coalition, Petro Georgio’s seat of Kooyong.

  55. Anne said

    Labor – 96 seats
    Biggest swing to Coalition – not applicable😉
    Biggest swing to Labor – Bennelong
    The Greens to get the second Senate seat in the ACT

    I just want that prat Jason Wood in LaTrobe to SHUT UP!!! There’s no more space in my recyling bin! Good thing he hasn’t doorknocked my street (wouldn’t – it’s gravel, steep, and the width of one car – might get his shoes dusty); my daughter the Virgin Voter home from uni would want to do something unspeakable to him, and I’d miss all the fun!

  56. Pathological Logic said

    I tipped 89 seats at the start of the campaign over at PB but the implosion this week has made me revise that upward to 95.

    Biggest swings: North Sydney, Goldstein

    Smallest swings: Wentworth, Stirling

  57. JP said

    Inspired by the prize, I’ll go for 101 seats to Labor.

    Biggest swing: Ryan, Lindsay
    Smallest: Cowan, Kooyong

    John G @ 9 – biggest swing Cowper? Do you have any basis for that? Cowper’s my seat and the Labor campaign has been uninspiring verging on invisible. I’m backing it to swing less than the NSW average, despite the uselessness of the sitting member. I’m not even convinced it will fall, but I hope it does.

  58. Rudi said

    http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22803410-5001021,00.html

    The Daily Terror punts for Rudd! Got to be worth a few votes in marginals in Sydney including in Bennelong. Everyone loves to back a winner.

  59. Gippslander said

    Re: Gippslander @ 46: Forrest (South-West WA) could be somewhat of a surprise! The main candidates are Peter McFarlane (Lab), Nola Marino (Lib) and Noel Brunning (Indep). Noel Brunning is a newsreader for the local news, so has a high profile. The 2004 result TPP was near enough 60/40 with a near enough 3% swing to Libs. Peter Mc is directing preferences to Noel, which if Noel comes second could tip the Libs out of the seat!! A more likely result though is Noel at 3, and his prefs fall 50/50. Either way – the seat should see a fairly substantial swing (fingers crossed!!). Also, you have had a bit of a ’sea change’ phenomenon, so some demographic shifts as well. Could make Forrest interesting for the first time in 40 years!!

    An astute ALP supporter would vote for the independent, and thus give a chance to the non coalition, which the ALP don’t have. If enough ALP supporters do this, there will be a swing against the ALP but the coalition will lose the seat. My prediction is based on the hope that there are enough astute ALP supporters to realise this.
    I live the Victorian seat of East Gippsland, which is held by an independant under exactly these cirumstances.

  60. Gippslander said

    My 59 referred of course to Kevin Brady, @48 & 49

    BTW the independant in E Gipps was one of the three who voted Kennett out in 1999..E Gipps had returned a National/Country Party since time immemorial

  61. asanque said

    I said 84/64/2 to the ALP in the last thread.
    Biggest swinging seat to ALP – Ryan
    Smallest Swinging seat to ALP – Brand

  62. Martin said

    Labor 93 seats

    Biggest ALP swing: Ryan, McPherson

    Smallest ALP swing: Curtin, Maranoa

  63. HarryH said

    i entered 102 at Pollbludger and i’m holding firm

    102 Labor seats

    biggest swing : Ryan
    smallest swing : Brand

    Biggest scalps : Howard,Hockey,Pyne,Robb and maybe Tip and Brough.

    The Oh Please result : Menzies

  64. Kevin Brady said

    Gipps @ 59. Your strategy would be very sensible, but many are wanting to vote Lab on Saturday! Just to be able to say to their grandkids that they did!! Even so, I am hoping that demographics can turn Forrest into a marginal seat at the next election (or the one after, or the one after that, ….)

  65. Gippslander said

    Yes Kev @64, I must admit that in 1999 I voted ALP, but was quite relieved when Ingram (IND) just pipped ALP on primaries, and our prefs got him over the line. I would have kicked myself afterwards if he’d just fallen into 3rd & his preferences had re elected the Nats, & thus Kennett!
    BTW ALP is in with a chance in Gippsland, with a lot more votes from the west of the seat going ALP
    Good luck in Forrest.

  66. dylwah said

    I’m not sure if this is a prediction or a wish

    103 – Labor

    Biggest alp swing – Warringa, Goldstien
    Smallest – Curtin, O’Conner

  67. Kevin Brady said

    Thanks Gipps!! See ya on Monday!!

  68. Gezza said

    2nd choice on seats:
    Biggest swing to Labor: Lindsay
    Coalition/Least: Cowan

  69. haiku said

    91 seats
    Biggest: Ryan
    Smallest: Wentworth

  70. haiku said

    Actually, no scratch that.
    91 seats
    Biggest: Ryan
    Smallest: Stirling

  71. Aspirational Aspirationalist said

    This is my guess.

    ALP – 106
    LNP – 40
    Independents – 4
    Bob Katter in Kennedy
    Gavin Priestly in Calare
    Gavan O’Conner in Corio (Off the electorate voting for the man not the party).
    Tony Windsor in New England (Which isnt on antony’s calculator……??? Neither is Kennedy)

    Biggest swings to ALP, (Warringah & North Sydney)
    Smallest swings to ALP (O’Conner, Farrer)

    And while i’m here:-
    Maxine gets Bennelong
    Costello gets a shock
    & this election goes down as the Turfing out we had to have.

  72. John Ryan said

    No change in my prediction:
    TPP: 54.6% Labor

    Labor: 95
    Coalition: 53
    Other: 2

    Bennelong will fall, Senator Humphries (Lib-ACT) will *not* be re-elected.

  73. Stig said

    No change from me either – 92 Labor, 2 Indies, rest to Libs-Nats.

    Biggest swing in Blair. Howard goes boots and all.

  74. Rx said

    80 seats to Labor.

    (though will be delighted if it proves ‘conservative’)

    Go Australia!!

  75. Jon said

    ALP – 53.2% TPP
    ALP – 82 seats
    Coalition – 67 seats
    Indep – 2 seats
    Biggest swing to ALP – Ryan, Bowman
    Smallest – Cowan

  76. Jon said

    Sorry – that should be (can’t count)

    #

    ALP – 53.2% TPP
    ALP – 82 seats
    Coalition – 66 seats
    Indep – 2 seats
    Biggest swing to ALP – Ryan, Bowman
    Smallest – Cowan

  77. Laurie said

    Hi. My prediction is:

    ALP – 56.8% TPP = 104 seats

    Coalition – 44 seats

    Independents – 2 seats

    Yep – seems about right to me after today. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of bastards.

  78. dirk provin said

    my read is that currently Alp sits (ie certs or favour strongly) on 74 seats Coalition 61 seats 2 Independent and 13 “too bloody tough to call”.

    Putting my hide on the line, I suspect it will fall out something like Lab 80-82, Coalition 66-68, Indy 2.

    I might like to see a bigger margin but I have been “conservative” in my calls. Will be happy to be proven wrong.

    Biggest ALP swings: contenders could be Adelaide, Hughes, Ryan, maybe Liechhardt, Bowman,Hindmarsh, smokies maybe McPherson or Fisher/Fairfax.

    Lowest ALP swing; prob seats such as Murray, Mallee, Murray, Hume. out of the “tight seats” Cowan, Wentworth.

  79. STAR said

    Labor : 103 seats.

    Ind. : 2 seats.

    Biggest swing : McPherson ( I lost the faith for a while. )
    : Dobell

    Smallest swing : Bennelong
    : Cowan

  80. trevor millington said

    My bet 54.6TPP. Will be voting for Noel Brunning in Forrest only chance to knock off Lib with Lab prefs. KEEP THE FAITH…..

  81. paulyt said

    I’m also predicting Labor will take Kalgoorlie

    http://australiavotes2007.blogspot.com/2007/11/prediction-labor-to-take-kalgoorlie.html

  82. canberra boy said

    My prediction is Labor 98 seats, Coalition 50 and 2 independents.

    Largest swing to Labor in either Ryan or Adelaide. Best swing for Coalition (either a small one to Labor or a small one to Libs) in Brand.

  83. Just Me said

    Labor: mid 80s, though a higher number wouldn’t surprise me.
    Balance of power in Senate to Greens.

  84. kiwipundit said

    I’ll be slightly more optimistic than I was a few weeks ago and say TPP of 54-46 in Labor’s favour, primary support of 46% for Labor and 42% for the Coalition and a seat count of 83 for Labor, 65 for Coalition and 2 Independents.

    The 23 seats that Labor will win off the Coalition are:

    NSW (7) = Bennelong (by a very narrow margin), Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Lindsay, Macquarie – held by a Liberal MP although it is a Labor seat on paper (or Parramatta – which is on paper a Liberal seat), Page, Robertson

    Vic (3) = Corangamite, Deakin, La Trobe

    Qld (6) = Blair, Bonner, Bowman, Herbert, Moreton, Petrie

    WA (1) = Hasluck

    SA (3) = Kingston, Makin, Wakefield,

    Tas (2) = Bass, Braddon

    NT (1) = Solomon

  85. dany le roux said

    I was visiting a friend last night in a hospital in Lindsay (not my electorate) and The Phamphlet was the topic of discussion de jour ,even for a dying patient, so I will say the biggest swing will be Lindsay and the ALP seat numbers will be 105 as I said before.

    https://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/11/12/possums-offical-make-your-election-tops-thread/#comment-4131

  86. dany le roux said

    Sorry, I meant to say 106 which is even better.

  87. Brian said

    This may be double up…

    ALP 76
    Coalition 72
    Ind 2

    having spent formative years watching successive annihilations of 75,77 and 80 and reliving that through the depondancy of the 01 and 04 disasters, I have no confidence in the result until the rodent sheds a tear if that is possible.

    That said, the potential for the exilaration of 72 or 83 is tantalising…

    Biggest swing: Macarthur
    Smallest swing: Kalgoolie

    PS: Howard will lose Bennelong early, but it will be a long night

  88. CL de Footscray said

    Biggest swings: North Sydney, Higgins (optimism, thy name is Footscray)
    Least swings to ALP: Swan, Gellibrand (we’re already maxed out on our admiration for Nicola here in Gellibrand-land …)

  89. southgippsland.info said

    5% swing, 74 each, two independ. Biggest swing to coalition in Brand, biggest to Labor in Lindsay.

  90. GS said

    Anyone else but me is a relative expert but….I believe a close-ish result of a low-80s to ALP with Kerry Tucker in Gary Humphries out in the Senate. Milder swings to ALP than predicted I think – but still enuf. (how does one do a ‘shrug’ icon??)

  91. coota bulldog said

    84 ALP

    2 independents

    Libs/CLP 52

    Nats 12

  92. Swing Lowe said

    81 seats ALP
    2 Independents

    Biggest swing to the Coalition: Brand
    Biggest Swing to Labor: Ryan

  93. The Steel Golem said

    Just to finalise my predictions (so scratch my earlier go @ 7)

    89 ALP
    2 Indepedents (inc Mr Katter who has said he’ll vote with the ALP on some issues)

    Biggest Swing (ALP) Ryan
    Biggest Swing LNP (smallest ALP) Stirling

  94. Reefy said

    My tip is 84 seats to Labor.
    Biggest swing to Labor – Ryan
    Biggest swing to LNP – Kooyong.

    I’ll join the chorus and say hats off to you Poss for your excellent work!

    My song for the night, the classic Jamiacan hit by Toots & the Maytals “54-46 that’s my number”.

  95. southgippsland.info said

    OK. Bets appear to be in. Poss, you and mumble have put your dicks on the table. (Unless of course you really are Pru Goward as suggested by your pic on the masthead.) Well, we’ll see – but I have been thinking that it will be skin tight for some time now. (Put my call in before the newspoll today.) If I get the prize I’ll explain in full!! (But hope I’m wrong.)

  96. Will Lowes said

    Possum… Thanks for a fantastic ride into election 07… if we are to believe the final Newspoll, Labor is in with a 14 seat majority, and the triple whammy (for me) of 1. Coalition loses govt., 2. Howard loses Bennelong to Maxine and 3. Christopher Whyne (sic) loses Sturt in SA has been achieved. I can now die a happy blogger!!

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