Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

The Newspoll cumulative, final edition.

Posted by Possum Comitatus on November 22, 2007

This graph says it all folks:

newspollcumulative1.jpg

The Newspoll quarties are given, before changing to the weekly rolling newspoll breakdowns during the campaign.There’s a 4% MoE on the State results.

The current Newspoll cumulative in terms of State swings and the seats it would deliver can be seen HERE. 100 seats.

The average of the State swings over the campaign period can be seen HERE. 98 seats.

Where art thou Narrowing?

29 Responses to “The Newspoll cumulative, final edition.”

  1. Andrew A said

    Hi Possum, They’ve been telling me in Stats 101 that Statistics can be fun. Didn’t believe it until I found your site. Thanks for the great analysis – what are you going to do with your time after Saturday?

  2. “Where art thou Narrowing?”

    Ian Smith in today’s Australian tells his fellow conservatives not to fret, because they “still have more than 48 hours”.

    If the last 48 hours can change everything, why call a 6 week campaign?

  3. Tony said

    I think that this aspirational narrowing is well and truly on. But like all aspirational targets – greenhouse emissions for example – it is unpredictable and could happen at any time.

    For example: at 6.49 am tomorrow, 2012, etc

  4. Stephen D said

    If Jackie Kelly’s antics are anything to judge by, the Liberal candidates are treating it as 48 hours in which to wipe out a few more points of the coalition primary vote.

  5. Artee said

    IMO democracy would be a winner if the Libs are delivered a crushing blow and the right wing extremists backing HowHard are scapegoated. The only way to get a good democracy is to have parties that represent the mainstream not the ex-streams. The Libs may see then that their path of following the HR Nicholls prescription to “America Lite” will not wash with the population. They have to reconstruct the party – at least 2 terms in the wilderness. In the meantime a version of “Norway Lite” might be resurrected as a vision for the Australia of the 21st century.

    The WA result will not even matter and we can expect that by the time the polls close here the result will be over, my election party will only have local tension to create interest – and of course the senate where it looks like the Greens will be surprise winners. (Possibly too, great cherry on cake of Bennelong result)

    I have not seen polling of differential voting intentions by Chamber but our local Greens are very confident of a big show in the Senate.

    My gut feeling is that the baseball bats are just lying beside the beds and when people wake up they will be carried down to the booths on Saturday.

    Roll on Saturday. (ps Congrats for a great site and analysis – from a long term professional economist)

  6. Ron Brown said

    POSSUM
    The cumulative Newspoll data IS old info and is the average of the last 2 polls BUT the ‘oz’ are showing THIS averaged result AGAINST respective previous 2 successive Newspoll averaged results

    which provides a trend

    Would like feedback , but my view of this “cumulative” polling methodology is it completely camoflages the ‘narrowing’ during an election because

    9/11 -10/11 poll 56 -44 2PP
    16/11-17/11 poll 54 -46 2PP
    BUT cumulative of both 55- 45 2PP

    I think the 54 -46 is more realistic as it IS the latest Poll and reflects voters FIRMING UP their votes based on current campaign info ?????????????

    I admit a cumulative ‘trend’ can be deduced but so can a trend be deduced by comparing numerous SUCCESSIVE polls

    Any thoughts ????

  7. Ron Brown said

    Possum

    I should have SIMOLY asked you the value of trends comparing successive CUMULATIVE polls VS successive INDIVIDUAL polls

    Any thoughts ?

  8. bryn said

    From the…
    “current Newspoll cumulative in terms of State swings and the seats it would deliver can be seen HERE. 100 seats”
    I noticed McPherson, North Sydney and Grey were all still on the retain side of the ledger for the Libs. Of course swings are anything but uniform across seats, so after the Lindsay episode and the apparently upward movement of the polls for Labor, these three seats be very interesting.

  9. Possum Comitatus said

    Ron,

    In this case it actually doesnt make any difference how you cut the data – when nothing is changing, nothing is changing regardless of how you chop it up.

  10. nomad3 said

    Possum, and to all fellow bloggers who frequent this site. ..and I know I speak for all of us .. its great to be able to share ideas and thoughts with kindred spirits if nothing else than to vent our spleen over a govt that has inflicted incredible damage to this country in the name of fiscal responsibility and balancing the budget. My thanks to you Poss.. with your lucid tones and in-depth analysis you are able to articulate what many of us are thinking.. you and the bloggers here are also able to inject some sanity and clarity into this debate.

    On another note ..that closest fascist Phil Ruddock, he has been strangely quiet during the campaign.. it says alot for a man whose daughter has to leave the country just to get away from him .. has he been told to keep a low profile? anyone know ?

  11. Matthew said

    This is definitely good news, and a nice indicator about what we might expect come Saturday evening’s results, as they begin to flow into the Tally Room from various electorates.

    Last night I had to “endure” a 45 minute rant from a guy who shall remain nameless. He is a small business owner, and an extreme Liberal party supporter. Over the course of 45 minutes, he decided to try and rubbish any view I held which suggested that the ALP should win the 2007 election, claiming that only John Howard can be trusted to run the economy, and how this is the only thing that matters.

    Stupidly, I attempted to engage him on a few points which are driving my political views. Despite my claims that my vote was being based on going for the party offering the clear advantage in policy terms for climate change, industrial relations, health & education, I was basically told I was an idiot, and that my view was flawed, and that anyone who would dare to vote for Kevin Rudd deserved to see the country go down the toilet.

    Now, the reason I am posting this is partly because I was so angry, I needed to get this rant out of my system. As well as that, it just amazed me to think that despite all the negative press that the Howard government has been getting of late, there are still some people out there who firmly believe that their own personal monetary situation is more important than a social & ethical government.

    This guy told me that he knew Kevin Rudd, and that I’d vote differently if I knew him. What was funny was this guy only knew Kevin Rudd because his company had installed some equipment in his house a few weeks / months back, and that it was during this installation time that this guy apparently became an expert on what makes Kevin Rudd tick. The absurdity of such a statement amazed me.

    So yes, I am looking forward to seeing a Kevin07 victory on Saturday. I personally wanna see a swing of 10% to the ALP, as I want the LNP to be crushed so badly that they take 2-3 terms to rebuild themselves. They have driven this country into the wall, by stripping away society’s moral & ethical code, and replaced it with some cheap cash-grab attitude, where tax cuts are valued more highly than proper OECD-level funding for areas like health & education.

    I am over hearing about a lack of accountability with the Government to the public, and that pork-barreling is allowed to occur in marginal Government seats. I pay my taxes to see them used wisely, for the benefit of all. Having an Environment Minister who gives $10m to one of his campaign fund-raisers is bad enough, but learning that hundreds of millions of dollars have been wasted in the Regional Partnerships Program is just one of many examples of why this Government has to go.

    Most of all, I wanna see people like this guy I was subjected to for 45 minutes realise that they have been mislead all this time, and that money isn’t the be all and end all of the world. I wanna see this country become something great again, and at this stage, only Kevin Rudd looks like someone who can deliver this.

  12. nomad3 said

    Matthew ..I know how you feel .. I have had a similar experience .. do what I do to get it out of your system..I live in Andrew Robbs electorate ..when I get his brochures in the mail (and I have been getting them every 2 days) I stick them in an envelope address it to his office with a note saying ‘Did the exclusive Bretheren help pay for this ? ‘

    Small point i know.. but it helps

  13. John said

    Just wondering re polls, did this site exist last election and if so was the commentary so laborcentric. If not, then it is just another indication that the polls are correct and that the LNP are in for a pasting as I find this site to be 98% anti LNP at present. A great filip as it supports my views.

  14. Tom said

    My bets on Bennelong, Ryan, Sturt and Boothby looking good!
    On Kalgoorlie, Dunkley and North Sydney not so good🙂

    Still have hopes of North Sydney tho!

  15. Dinsdale Piranha said

    Not only will the WA result not matter, but Labor could lose all its seats in WA and still win convincingly. Of course, that isn’t going to happen.

  16. Kate Ellis for PM said

    “Where art thou Narrowing?”

    Poss, may be Tampa III (something like the Kellygate) will cause a rapid narrowing of historical proportions to shift the TPP by about 4% in the next 48 hours. But then pigs will fly and members of the coalition would ride them!

  17. Dinsdale Piranha said

    Labor losing all its seats in WA, that is.

  18. Tom said

    Oh yeah, so do my bets on Herbert, Flynn & Longman but not my $10 on Gilmore🙂

    Three more sleeps and the yoke of 11 years of Howardism is gone, gone gone!

  19. Xercius said

    Matthew, it is a frustration many people share, so don’t feel like it’s your ‘issue’. What can be a bit of fun with ‘mates’ of yours like that is to get them to logically justify their argument and substantiate it with fact (and, I stress, ‘fact’, as distinct from ‘truth’ . . . big difference).

    I risk getting shot here on a number of fronts, but I have long felt that the Member for Griffith (to borrow a ‘Josh Lyman’) was ‘the one’. No details . . . no pack drill . . . I refuse to elaborate how I came to form that assessment, but, let’s just say that had your ‘mate’ actually met him on occasion and spoken to him in person (as in face to face and for real), he might have cause to really question his belief systems / zealotry (memo to all: beware zealots . . . they’re dangerous people).

    And Ron, Poss . . . my tracking of the polls since April / May (Newspoll, Galaxy, Morgan, ACNielsen) confirms Poss’ assessment. Two weeks ago now I put a postit note up that said, “55 / 45; +7.74%; ALP 91; Coalition 57; Independents 2”. Like Poss said, regardless of how you cut it all up, that’s what you get. Nuffin’s changed . . .

    Poss, I am not at a poota tomorrow, so may I take the opprotunity now to thank you for what has been (is!)a fanastic site and resource during the lead up to ‘Australia Decides 2007’.

  20. Possum Comitatus said

    John at 13 – I only started this in May this year.

  21. Amaranthus said

    Matthew, nomad3 – no point trying to argue with people like that – you can’t win. They simply drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience. The weekend of reckoning will do more to sharpen their perspective than any argument rational people can mount.

  22. John said

    Poss @ 20, OK so no comparison to previous elections for a subjective feel of the mood of your blog. Cheers and have a great Saturday

  23. PASOK said

    Matthew 11,

    A friend made the summary not long ago that “the only people who vote for Liberals are either greedy or ignorant”.

    I test this hypothesis out with everyone who defends John Howard based on his “superior economic management”.

    I ask one simple question. I even allow the respondents 24 hours to research it. So far I have never gotten a response. Here it is:

    “If John Howard is such a great economic manager, perhaps you would like to outline to me ONE, repeat, just one, economic reform he and his government has undertaken in 11 years to make the Australian economy so great?”

    And to those who profess the same about Costello, I ask about his supposed Medicare Gold black hole that he staked his economic credibility on in 2004, and lost.

    They become mute.

  24. Bruce said

    That particular swings results in the number of ALP seats won being particularly sensitive to the distribution of swings.

    See this site:
    http://orgburo.com/elections/mockstateelection.php
    Down the bottom you can put in state based swings and run a simulation, which will assign a random swing to each state seat centred on the state swing and normally distributed with an sd of 3% (possible high, maybe 2% would be better).

    I ran it about 40 times and got results from 87 to 104 seats (mean=96 sd=3.1) (I have not validated the calculator). Most results were in the mid 90s. For 20 simulations and a national swing of 7.7% I got a range of 87 to 100 seats (mean=93.1 sd=3.3)

  25. josh lyman said

    Xercius, would that Kevin Rudd was more like Matt Santos!

  26. geoff kricker said

    Poss – I have really enjoyed your website over the last couple of months. Im probably not your sterotype PP blogger being a 60 yr old CPA with my own practice but have been a Labor member since 77. I’ll be handing out HTV cards on boundary of Bonner and Griffith electorates (I live in Bonner)and have an invitation to Rudd’s election party. Suppose to be a secret location but would have to be the Convention Centre to hold a few thousand volunteers – should be a great night.

  27. Gezza said

    Re Polls: It’s the levelling!
    Great site poss. Will you take annual leave after the election as a reward for all your overtime or have all those conditions been stripped?

  28. Xercius said

    Josh . . . do not but many of us wish that (sigh) . . . but, in the context of the available gene pool . . .

  29. Maurico said

    Yes a great site. Thanks for all your efforts.

    Cheers and onward to victory! Glug glug

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