Tomorrows Polls Today
Posted by Possum Comitatus on November 22, 2007
Channel 10 news had something about a Galaxy being 52-46.
No that’s not a mistake.It’s probably a Channel 10 stuff up, but it wouldnt surprise me if Galaxy came out with a poll of 52-46….they’ve been the stand up polling comedian all year.
[Its actually 52-48]
ACN was given as higher for the ALP but no details apparently at 55/45 57/43– the business as usual we’ve all come yawn about…. sort of, but on the up side of the ALP vote.
[via Channel 7]
Sorry to the bloke that mailed me that figure earlier, and who I didnt believe – will never happen again. Promise!
So as the polls roll in, post ’em here.
I am surprised though that polls are coming out tomorrow, rather than Saturday morning.
So to neaten things up we have the poll roll of:
————————————————-
Galaxy 52/48
ACNielsen 57/43
Possums Pollytics 
BlahB said
Did you go on annual leave or something? The intensity of posts seem to have gone through the roof. Your coverage is getting real time!
Sir Henry Casingbroke said
The Terrorgraph’s front page:
TIME FOR HISTORIC CHANGE
TELEGRAPH BACKS RUDD
Eat this, Johnny.
Bobby said
Poss please enlighten me – I am here to learn – please tell me in simple terms why Galaxy is not as reliable as Newspoll and ACNeilson or Morgan.
Who is the most reliable and why?
Possum Comitatus said
BlahB – I’m the veritable Energizer Possum today mate
Possum Comitatus said
The Galaxy primary vote estimates, the preference distributions they use and, as a result, the final TPP estimates are not only different from all other pollsters, but from internal party polling as well.
When you get ALP and Lib party polling looking identical and roughly similar to ACN and (but with more volatility) Newspoll, yet you have Galaxy providing results way on the high side of the Coalition vote just like Morgan was doing it way on the low side for the Coalition vote – those last two pollsters have something wrong with their weighting. They have some type of systematic bias in their system.
And not worth paying a great lot of attention to until they fix it. It’s like paying attention to Westpolls.
Why would you even bother – might as well make up some numbers for all the good it will do.
KeepingALidOnIt said
On PollBludger it has been corrected to 52/48. Slip of the tongue by Paul Bongiorno.
Hotlips said
Where’d you hear ACN Poss?
Paul said
Where is ACN figure from?
Kina said
Curious. If AC Nielsen comes out with 55/45 then we could be looking at 56/44 on election day according to their previous form. Their last poll of an election always over-estimates the LNP vote – by 2% in 1998; By 3% in 2001 and By 2% in 2004. In contrast their Labor vote is usually pretty close.
Bobby said
Thank you oh wise Possum … I can now sleep easy tonight – I will repeat the mantra as I drop off to sleep – ignore Galaxy, ignore Galaxy, ignore Galaxy!
flute said
(galaxy+morgan)/2 = (newspoll+acn)/2
time for a nap after that one.
Marko said
Poss –
There’s some question over at PB about where you got those ACN results? There’s a new thread over there if you care to enlighten us all…
Christian said
I take responsibility for the ACN number, heard it on the radio, ABC National I think. If its wrong, ban me and string me up!
The Poll Bludger said
Do Galaxy distribute preferences by asking respondents, or using the results of the previous election?
Possum Comitatus said
On the ACN figures, Christian gave it to me on another thread, and Horse emailed me with the same info.
Possum Comitatus said
I have no idea Billbowe
happy chap from Griffith said
This in today’s crikey tips & rumours:
“In the carpark beneath the parliament house ministerial wing, boxes upon boxes are this morning making their way to staffers’ cars.”
Looks like it’s going as predicted Poss…
Bobby said
Mark Riley on 7 just said ACN is 57! Can anyone confirm?
netvegetable said
I don’t know where you got the inside info from Possum. But if what you say about the ACNielsen is true, that’s terrific news. The last ACNielsen before the election is usually within 1.5% of the actual 2PP, which means we should be headed for the best result for the Federal ALP ever. Certainly the best in the postwar era.
asanque said
Rofl. Roll on the annihilation.
Bobby said
Riley appropriately called the figures a bloodbath.
Hemingway said
Yep, Bobby. Absolutely, Riley even said 14% gap of 57 to 43!
Amaranthus said
What’s right in the middle of the Galaxy/ACN numbers? 55:45 that’s what
Just like the long-term averages have been telling us, Poss’ earlier prediction of 55.12 still looks right to me. Plus Jackman and others have done alternative pseph and come up with basically the same number of 55. It’s too irresistible to ignore.
Enemy Combatant said
Very neat, flute, and close to the mark MoE-wise too.
If ACN are on the money with 55/45, then David “Snakeoil” Briggs has just stoiciometrically soothsayered himself into irrelevance going forward.
Sir Henry, Page One Tabloid Terror for the Tories, eh?
Wrath of Rupert writ large all over it. Like all successful Bidnessmen, Rupie sure doesn’t like to be seen palling around with losers.
The last 48 hours of the reign of El Rodente is at hand. His front paws have develloped the Joe Blakes as well!
Corresponding moment in “The Downfall”; Magda G. gathers the kinder.
Enemy Combatant said
ACN 57/43
fuck*me*dead
PJay said
Possum. Herald Sun have backed Howard. WTF? A bet each way from News Ltd? In the words of Australia’s First Lady: “Please explain…”.
Bobby said
I reakon the Herald Sun are just being parochial – they want a Victorian to be PM (assuming the old fella actually gives it up)… good luck!
Re ACN can we now call this the “Widening” please!!!
B1 said
PJay – I wouldn’t worry to much about the editorials; I believe that in 1993 every paper except 1 backed Hewson; and we know what happened then. It is always a bit interesting to see which way they go but it is doubtful if they have any influence.
Bobby said
Speaking of parochialism it will be more interested to see who the Courier Mail backs. Can’t see them backing Howard but who knows.
Possum Comitatus said
Well it is the Herald-Sun Pjay!
PJay said
Oh. While I’m parked here. Possum. Huge acknowledgment by self for your sensational editorial skills. You’d have to admit there was a HUGE leap in quality post implementation of spaces-after-full-stops. Keep it rolling in, Energiser Possum.
Gezza said
Me Too!
alpal said
Possum, You have kept me sane – sort of.
Leinad said
no numbering of posts. Otherwise looks a look better. Galaxy’s reputation after 2004 was quite good — have they always been this erratic and just got lucky in 2004, or did they decide to take a plunge?
PJay said
And the improvements just keep flooding in. Possum gets skinned.
Bruce said
Poss, what are the sample sizes for the Galaxy and ACN polls. Galaxy typically do about 800-1000. ACN about 1450. ACN will have a smaller MOE. variance weighting the two results would give a mean of close to 55% TPP.
When I got home I got another red and black letter from Louise Markus. Apparently Peter Garrett is an extremist, and Wayne Swan is still learning (Dad told me when you stop learing you die). Oh and if I vote for Labor my hair will fall out, I”l go blind, get scabies and have bad BO…
typingisnotactivism said
May have already been answered but ACN was quoted on SBS.
Ha!! Love the Galaxy joke Poss. I interviewed one of their directors after they released figures showing that close to 60% of Australians were suddenly supportive of nuclear power. Guessing that their non-partisan political polling runs something like this:
Q. Kevin Rudd has never been a Prime Minister or a federal cabinet minister of any country, including Australia. Some people around the water cooler say that he is a communist puppet controlled by Green extremists and union bosses. John Howard has been Prime Minister of Australia for eleven years, during which time incomes have increased, unemployment has gone down, and there have been no terrorist attacks on Australian soil. Who do you think is Prime Minister of Australia?
Possum Comitatus said
Bruce at 6:02
When I get the details of the sample sizes, I’ll whack ’em up
Gippslander said
Like the new format
like the new poll
God’s in his Heaven,
and Rudd’s on a roll!
KaptainKrumpet said
I the Great Kount Karacactus Krumpet have rubbed my chrystal ball, (not the the hairy one the other one) and reading the entrails of the road kill on my front lawn (how did that get there, memo to self, better get to pet shop right quick) and also some tea leaves have predistimitiated that on Saturday if the Sun rises (in the morning) the following willl eventuate:
Election result will be known in 45 minutes, Commentators will fill in the last 2 and half hours reading and acting out dirty ditties live on National TV as a filler.
Labor supporters will all have a hangover on Sunday morning and still have tingles in their private bits from the previous night.
John Howard will no longer have the opportunity not to invite Peter C around for a nosh and niggle as they will both be hiding in Virgin Old Growth forest in Tasmania hiding from a liberal horde of people wanting to congratulate them on their political genius with chain saws, axes and other sporting equipment.
Andrew Robb and Jackie Kelly will be on the same flight to Argentina or someplace else that people can’t pronounce and where there is no extradition treaty with the Liberal Party of Australia thereby forfeiting their rights in the after election celebrations.
Liberal members will remain in hiding from the national stage for half a decade, agreeing to hold all the party Christmas functions in the phone box across the road from Kirribili House, hoping Santa might turn up with a reversomatic time machine jigger.
Piers Ackerman will claim the LNP was robbed of the election (by the electorate) and take up ice dancing and the professional scrabble circuit.
And that’s all I can see, I also do phrenology type readings and I reckon there will be some interesting bumps on noggins in the coalition party from now on, when they all take the hammers to each other consultatively with great sympathy (what a shower).
Did the LNP even get one day of clear air in the last 10 weeks.
Fuck em, I’m not gonna waste my time listing their betrayals.
Active Emu said
Re Bruce’s comment. Because I believe the Tory’s- If Labour win I’m not worried about my hair falling out – what about the world financial crisis, the nuclear war, and worse of all the impending alien invasion!
Oh – and split the difference in the polls to get a more accurate result. Still don’t believe it will be over 54-46 even with those Queenslanders doing funny things. Role on Saturday – I need to sleep at night!
Bobby said
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Labors-odds-shorten-in-Bennelong/2007/11/22/1195321939885.html
Come on own up – who put the $15k down to shorten the odds!
jo said
got a first hand dodgy galaxy story, poss.
at ma & pa’s on monday night and galaxy ring wanting to do a poll on the election -they wanted a male – so i handed phone over to the old man – 85 years old – anyway -a lousy 3 minimal questions about the election….and then straight into questions about telstra, broadband, mobile phones, air-conditioning, movies..
i got the phone back, and asked to speak to the supervisor, and the line went dead.
i rang galaxy yesterday and they confirmed it was them, and they apologised for their worker not explaining that the poll wasn’t just about the election etc etc.
top polling outfit galaxy, not.
jo said
oops – that their survey wasn’t just about the election….
Bobby said
Active Emu – the head of ACN (can’t remember his name) is going to have some explaining to do if its 54 or less given he has previously claimed that ACN is accurate to within a pecent or so in the last week of the campaign.
Demitri said
Hi Possum,
Long time watcher, first time commenter.
You have made my electoral year! You’ve explained every nuance of the campaign and made me enjoy politics so much more than before. Your voice of reason has helped to keep me excited about the election (much to my colleagues annoyance – but they’re swinging voters so I’ll persist) and I’ve enjoyed every moment of John Coward’s overdue demise. Keep up the great work and let me know if i can donate to the site. You deserve it!
PS prefer the old format. Work is dull at the best of times so leave a little colour in your page. Every bit helps!
Lomandra said
typingisnotactivism: “John Howard has been Prime Minister of Australia for eleven years, during which time incomes have increased, unemployment has gone down, and there have been no terrorist attacks on Australian soil.”
Oh please. How many terrorist attacks were there on Australian soil prior to Howard being PM?
Correlation isn’t causation. Don’t insult our intelligence.
Possum Comitatus said
I think he was taking the piss Lom
Doing a very good impersonation of a Galaxy poll question. 😉
Lomandra said
Be quick to see this. It’s going to vanish very soon.
Some who knows how to do a screen save, do it!!
http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2006832414
Bobby said
Lomandra I think typingisnotactivism was joking… in a Chaser rather than Jackie Kelly kinds of way.
CL de Footscray said
Nearly there. No traction of any sort for rattus and crew. Is is correct to assume that Newspoll is due out overnight? If this is anywhere north of 54-46 the drinx are on me …
Bobby said
Brilliant Lomandra just brilliant! They should put this on the Kevin07 site.
PaulC said
Just a thought – Imagine you run a polling firm, and you know this final poll is the one that makes or breaks your reputation for the next 3 years. You get a result of 58-42. Would you be tempted to knock it down to say 54-46? It means anything between a result of 51 and 57 is within your MoE, and covers most probable results.
escobar said
please go back to old format
Lomandra said
Oh bugger. Sorry typingisnotactivism, sorry Possum, sorry everyone.
These outrageous levels of adrenaline causing through my veins seem to have knocked out my irony gland.
Hurry up Saturday.
Possum Comitatus said
Paul C, if I ran such a firm and got such a result, I’d take the cost hit and run the poll again.
Just to be sure to be sure… so to speak.
Lomandra said
(And my capacity to spell. “Causing=coursing”.)
Bernard said
Please keep the new format. Just add sequential number to each comment. I still say you are a virtuoso. Each line you write is so readable.
Chatswood Statsman said
General Wenck purging “undesirable elements” in Lindsay
Possum Comitatus said
Escobar – I’m interested in what you find annoying about this one?
The Finnigans said
Poss, the new format is so much better. the old one was like the dog’s breakfast. 54.7/45.3 TPP for me.
dave said
Poss – Previous format and font is much easier to read ?
Possum Comitatus said
Bernard at 6:41
Unfortunately I don’t think I can add sequential numbering. On the free wordpress.com system, my options are actually pretty limited with what I can do.
The Finnigans said
Poss, what about the latest posts on top? save scrolling past read ones.
kiwipundit said
Love the new format Possum – it’s so much easier to read.
Averaging out the Galaxy and ACN latest 2PP figures, it comes to Labor 54.5% and Coalition 45.5% – all quite stable really for much of the year and a landslide win to Labor on Saturday night.
Mind you 52-48 (the worst TPP for Labor all year) is enough for Labor to get 76 seats and a clear parliamentary majority.
imacca said
Like the format, but could do with comment #’s.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in Rattus Central when the Galaxy result closely followed by the ACN result came in.
Headless chooks will have nuthin on that lot.
Anxiously await Morgan and Newspoll. Are they due tonight??
Possum Comitatus said
Dave, press [control] plus [+] to enlarge the text – does it look better then?
Possum Comitatus said
Finnigans – unfortunately, I cant change the sequence of the posts. One of the drawbacks of a free system I suppose.
George said
Poss, I like the layout, but a bit of colour would be nice! 🙂 … and then again, I come here for the quality of analysis and not the pretty pictures
The Finnigans said
John Howard – Time To Say Goodbye – http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=CBdCO5S0_kI
Kevin Rudd – Hallelujah – http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=BKmXSYi49IU
George said
Poss, what about this Galaxy poll? – I can’t believe every other poll is wrong and Galaxy are closer to the true 2PP number
hergs said
Possum, great stuff as usual. I like your old site better however – it’s a bad omen to be changing right now!!!
Bernard said
Possum at 6:48 pm
Can live without the comment numbering Possum. But not without the amazing poll numbers and graphs. Math is really a melody – isn’t it?
Rod said
Just on the format, Poss.
Not sure what it looks like in other browsers, but in Safari on a Mac I reckon the old one was both prettier and easier to follow.
Sometimes this sort of thing relates to what one is used to , of course, but the current version reminds me a little too much of the shirts and trousers that Howard and Costello were wearing during their pretend love-in on Channel 7 the other night! A bit too 1970’s high school uniform for me! 😉
Cheers
Rod
Let It End said
Like the new format Poss, easier to read.
Congratulations in advance of your bold prediction early in the piece of 55.5 ALP TPP. If Nielson hasn’t totally stuffed up looks you may be right on the money.
Thanks also for leading us through this campaign with your insightful analysis. If I had to rely on the MSM I would be in ga ga land now.
Cheers
George said
Scrap my previous comment – I see both polls are within MoE.
Hasta la Vista Rodente said
After nearly 12 months of Rudd and 6 weeks of the campaign, and with the tears of laughter still rolling down my face from listening to the Jackie Kelly interview, I finally allowed myself to believe it might be possible, and then I saw the Galaxy poll numbers! Aaaaaarghh!!! Back to cautious pessimism for me.
Australian Values said
[…] ACNeilsen: 57:43 […]
Katrina said
Glad I wasn’t mishearing channel 10 news…since it didn’t add up I was beginning to wonder whether it was maybe the primary vote 😉
Newspoll comes out the day of the election, doesn’t it? If it’s similar to Nielsen’s (dropped the AC back in August (I work for another part of Nielsen), don’t think the media has got the memo) results, I’ll rest easier.
august said
Antony Green is barely able to control grinning ; the finale of 7.30 Report was cruelly magnificent. Like the ACN!! And the comitatus commentariat which has made this election much more interesting!
I prefer the old format….that was what I first saw and knew as Possum Com., and being an ‘Age’ reader can only tolerate minimal format/colour change. I don’t think the new is any easier to read and why go Hunnish. The old format matched the imagery of nocturnal happenings!
Grog said
Possum,
Watching 7:30 Report I kept wondering why they would even consider the Galaxy Poll as throwing a spanner in the works. The 55-45, 54-46 line has been monotonous. Anything outside that is an outlier that has returned the next poll to the usual 54-55% 2PP ALP vote.
Why is an outlier more accurate just becauseit happens in the last week?
And everyone comments that “Galaxy was right last time”. How do you respond to that statement Possum?
Harry 'Snapper' Organs said
Said it on Poll Bludger, will say it here. Victorians are not parochial (apart from the Hun readers) and I would rather gouge out my genitals with a blunt spoon than see Tip PM.
HowardsEnd said
I darn’t hope that these polls are correct. I’ve been disappointing waiting for Howard’s End for too lond!
HarryH said
Possum
i like the new format. well done.
the replies all sort of melded together in the old format.
this is better
cheers and bring on the end of the vile Howard era.
Aspirational Aspirationalist said
[Puts Technical Helpers hat on]
Lomandra about screen capturing, “Alt + Print Screen” puts the current view on the Clipboard. Open up Paint and “Ctrl + V” to past the image in then save as JPG.
Poss, Pressing Controll plus mousewheel does the same thing. However this site isnt responsive to it, it must be something in your settings (Style sheets?) that disallows the user to adjust the size of the text.
& Poss, if i dont get to say it later, thanks for your work over the last couple of weeks.
Possum Comitatus said
Grog – Galaxy was more right than the other pollsters because of three parts luck (sampling error falling down on their side rather than the other pollsters) and they had a more correct preference distribution. But that’s no longer the case on the prefs – not from every piece of polling data I’ve seen and heard about, both public and private.
Aspirational Aspirationalist said
I have to retract my previous comments about something in your settings, its changing size now.
Lomandra said
An anthem for election night.
This is so, so good.
Lomandra said
You’re an excellent person, Aspirational Aspirationalist. Thank you.
May all your aspirations be achieved. 😉
Stig said
Possum & Bludger – Yes, Galaxy do take preferences when interviewing, and distribute them the way their interviewees direct.
However, they do manage to stuff things up in other ways. For instance, the “might you change your vote” question, where they can get totally the wrong info given the way they ask it. I posted about it on this very fine blog a couple of weeks back – it was the one about me and Piers Ackerman and the sheer pantyhose. But don’t let that scare you…
Crispy said
sooo… we’re saying Galaxy is just wrong, are we? Cos I thought if the real number is 54.5%, then both these polls could be outliers. But some party pooper over at Poll Bludger alleges that this is unlikely, since at a confidence level of 95% the chances of this occurring would be 5% of 5% = .25%. Is that right, oh great Possum? In which case, someone’s stuffed up royally?
Cat said
I got my laptop back out and logged on so I could seek the reassurance of a possum scampering across the galaxy poll. Now I just need to say ditto to this post by Bobby:
“Thank you oh wise Possum … I can now sleep easy tonight – I will repeat the mantra as I drop off to sleep – ignore Galaxy, ignore Galaxy, ignore Galaxy!
Oh and because I am watching (mainly by recording on HDD) all news coverage of the election on the FTA stations I must comment that the reaction to Bogan-gate is the most uniform I think I have ever seen to any story. You could almost play bingo with the words they used. BTW Laurie was calmer and politer on the 6 pm news but he did not sound any happier.
Crispy said
Some polling company I mean, stuffing up. Jeez, what a time to turn on a rogue.
Cat said
I am fairly new here but can I ask for Kaptain krumpet to be flogged for this mental picture:
Piers Ackerman will claim the LNP was robbed of the election (by the electorate) and take up ice dancing
I had hoped to sleep well after reading this thread!!
dave said
Poss – Many thanks for the switchback 🙂
escobar said
Just woken up from a nana nap on the couch and the site seems to have reverted to the old format – much easier to read, imho
Cat said
Lomandra thanks for the tip about Kirribilli for sale. Thankfully I have snagit so I was able to capture the whole things. If ACN is right then hopefully it will make a nice memento and if in the unlikely event the rodent pulls off a miracle it will help with my devious plan B.
Possum Comitatus said
I’ll have to figure out a format that blends the best of both worlds – but post election.
Crispy at 91 – both these polls could well be at each end of their MoE, so it could well be business as usual at 55. That’s the most likely statistical explanation. So saying, I still dont have many good words to say about Galaxy political polling, which is why you don’t see very much of it analysed here.
Possum Comitatus said
Oh – and thanks folks for all the kind words.
Samuel K said
Possum, should you mention Labor is in front rather than just 57/43 etc. or is it implied?
PaulC said
On the accuracy of Galaxy – I think I remember it being Ross Gittins who said that the best way to pick an investment fund manager is to pick whoever did the worst the previous year, as it tends to be mainly luck. Don’t go with last year’s top performer, statistically they do worse than average in the following year.
While I’d like to see a result of “Biblical” proportions, I’d be happier to see Poss tip the TPP result to about .1% after all the hard work – and I look forward to Possum’s victory speech if that happens!
Final question to the floor – what time are the results likely to be known? I seem to remember the first counts coming in at about 6.30, with decent tallies starting about 7. If we assume Queensland is still in play (i.e. not a monumental result) , something like 8.30 Sydney time? Have to give the wine the right amount of time to breathe….
Wingnut said
The Democrats will be collateral damage on Saturday but it would be a shame if Meg Lees’s negative influence was overlooked. Her naive and self centred capitulation to Gollem on the GST led inexorably to the party’s demise and along the way Senate control to the Libs and work choices for the rest of us. History will remember Gollem for what he is. I hope the Greens remember Meg.
Poss – Great blog. Great analysis. Thanks for the education and the early Xmas present.
Ron Brown said
#
123
alj Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:20 pm
Just had a look at the details of this poll;
GALAXY POLL BREAKDOWN
(from ali #121 Poll Bludger Galaxy thread)
1- The poll is a 5 state breakdown (N.S.W, QLD, S.A,VIC and W.A) of 4 marginals for each state. The sample size is 4k, 800 per state.
2- When adusting the swings with the respective seat weight in regards to the state wide swing, we find that the national swing is approx 5.4%, with a2pp of 52.6. This poll looks very simular to the poll in last weekend’s News Ltd papers.
3 -The remarkable things to note is a) They show a large swing in NSW and only a 5% swing in QLD.
POSSUM , WHAT DO THINK OF GALAXY’s METHODOLOGY IN THIS POLL ?????
whynot said
Here in Petrie the Liberal incumbent is on a 7.5% margin. For such a fat margin, I have never been bombarded with so much election material. There is enough glossy material to recycle into a year’s supply of lad’s and lady’s magazines and, heck, even a complementary DVD from Rudd.
Our home phone number must be on some longitudinal study list. We got hit for the third time yesterday (missus answered it this time) in this election period. I am a bit puzzled about the questions. They appeared more geared to someone tuning a campaign +6 months out from an election, rather than in the dying days. I surmise that someone is doing research on how successful (or otherwise) individual message were. Certainly, there will be a few more phD’s generated out this campaign.
I have got a feeling that it is going to be near 100 seats for ALP.
Dave from Albury said
If Nielsen is even close it’ll be called by 8pm.
David Richards said
I hope Nielsen is spot on – and there’s no nonsense with it not not translating into a clear ALP win.
A record 2PP would be just the repudiation of the direction this country has taken for the last 11 years – and hopefully we can get back to the more egalitarian fairgo country it once was.
Possum Comitatus said
Ron, I dont think a lot of it at all – the seat selection of the poll comes into play and other things.The only marginal seat polling worth it’s salt are individual seat polls, BIG state based polls on ALL marginal seats in the State, or national marginal seat aggregations using ALL marginal seats (like what comes out of the Newspoll qurterly breakdown).
These polls of a carefully selected set of marginal seats are twaddle.
Possum Comitatus said
Whynot – sounds like internal party polling.They ask those types of questions.
Chris said
The Libs recent problems in Lindsay are not like the Latham handshake. More like the Ralph Willis press conference in 96 regarding the letter from kennet to howard; the one he got dropped on his desk in a brown paper bag. Keating had probably clawed back the margin to 2 percent. Howard etc immediately (20 mins) went on national TV saying it was a fake the electorate (the ????? ) decided that enough was enough and a change was ensured. If I am right here the Libs are going to get a few percent less than the current polls are predicting.
Chris
steve_e said
Surprise, surprise guess which of today’s late polls in Front and Centre in the GG.
Its the reappearance of the mythical beast “The Narrowing” (for some this entity is only the figment of perverted imaginations).
Not one reference to the alternative media view(Fairfax in this case not blogs) with a 57:43 view of the world from perspecyive of the Great Southern Land.
The key issue for the most frustrated journos (sic) at the GG will be their own Newspoll on Saturday morning. This could be a mouthfull too hard to swallow.
After the week that will then have ended (you gotta love the guys in Lindsay) my bet is just where we started 55:45.
Stephen T said
Thanks Poss steady as she goes. All’s well on spaceship Rudd. Doubters get over it. Between Poss and Oz Politics it has been set in for quite a while. After following Poss I realized how stable the polls are and just went with the flow. There is something quite visceral about this pole that is emotionally taxing after so many years of bastardry. This election is absolutely critical for this country. At last we will get our country back and return to justice, equity and a fair go. Accelerated change is going to drag us along at an unprecedented rate so we are going to need some effective change agents that can understand empirical research. Science must return as a foundational source of knowledge in the cultural narrative. Conservatism and its backward referral are dying if not dead already. Still hanging on in for 12.
Ron Brown said
SORRY POSS
The blogger has NOW said the breakup info was LAST weekend’s Galaxy poll
Looks like Galaxy IS a “National” Poll after all….appologies
Ron Brown said
POSS
I read your criticism of Galaxy’s estimating preferences
BUT HOW ACCURATE ARE THEIR PRIMARY VOTE %s compared to Newspoll and ACN ?????
(so when we see their prmary vote tomorrow we will get a ‘feel’ for their accuracy !!!)
Possum Comitatus said
Stephen T – as a piece of trivia, your comment was the 5000th comment on the blog.
nodalnodal said
Hi Possum
look I very sorry I stirred you you a while back about the possum pic – I really did like it you know -especially now that its gone. Anyway I’m just writing to say a greatly muchly thanks for your reports ( a million times plus the universe). I think the ripples from this and other blogs like it have been felt far and while. The “keeping the Bastards Honest” spirit (now applied to the press) has passed from my poor ailing and probably terminal, Democrats to the blogesphere. I’m saying this now in case my celebrations render me incapacitated.
James said
Poss, how do you get hold of the private polling? are you talking about leaked to the media stuff, or are some real insiders sharing some of the juicy stuff, and if so, how do you know that its true and not what they want you to see?
and a supplementary if i may; can you tell us what sort of sample size the parties use for their internal polling? Always believed it must be around the 3,000-5,000 mark, but just a guess. Would assume the tracking polling (following the same group of voters is smaller though.
And finally, great site and analysis.
seajay said
Ruddock hopeless on Lateline, i note that he only appears at night in recent times: terrible side-effect of vampirism. Albanese wisely wore crucifix and garlic.
Wooden stake required at about 9pm on Saturday night in Berowra.
Kate Parker said
Possum, this blog has been the find of my year. Your humour, wit and brilliant analysis have been the highlight of this interminable election campaign. Thanks for all your hard work, although I hope it doesn’t stop on Saturday!
lurker said
If ROn Brownat #103 is correct, it explains the discrepancy in the Galaxy vote. If they only polled marginal seats, then 52-48 is the average TPP in marginal seats only. Since Possum has already said that Newspoll shows the swing in safer seats is larger than in marginal seats, the overal TPP is likely to be higher than 52-48.
Didn’t Galaxy do a marginal seat analysis last time round, with a similar result? Can’t help thinking they are trying to create some momentum for Johnny.
Possum Comitatus said
I cant really talk about that James or I’d get people into trouble. And it’s not sheets and sheets of data, it’s more of a heads up type affair, and it’s not the usual political staffer type sources either – most of that is half baked twaddle to begin with. Most party polling isnt actually large in terms of sample size, it’s mostly a smaller rolling sample. Occasionally the parties will piss a lot of money up the wall to poll a particular seat very intensively like, say, Bennelong. But that’s pretty rare because it costs a lot of money to do big polls.
Pathological Logic said
Newspoll leaks from PB:
NSW: L-NP 46 ALP 54
QLD: L-NP 44 ALP 56
VIC: L-NP 48 ALP 52
SA: L-NP 45 ALP 55
WA: L-NP 52 ALP 48
TPP: L-NP 46 ALP 54
Possum Comitatus said
Patho,
That looks like more business as usual for the Newspoll state breakdowns that have been happening over the campaign.
Pathological Logic said
Indeed. And in further business as usual news, government still completely rooted.
At this rate, Antony will call it by 7pm. Which suits me just fine.
Bruce said
Re 103.
If the sample size is 4000, there is something odd with Galaxy or ACN. If Galaxy have only 1000 I can believe both polls are random samples on a population with a mean of about 55% 2PP.
Bruce said
Re 119, I take your point about it being a marginal seat poll, but in that case the reporting is misleading.
Neilbris said
Geez…if Antony calls it by 7pm it will all be over before Qld even comes online! Bear in mind that dear old Qld won’t be able to begin watching Antony et al till 8:30 edst. I wanna hear the Nantucket Sleigh-ride! – so he can call it by 8:30 (that’s 9:30 to you lot down below).
Active Emu said
Okay, now kids are in bed, and Heroes and Lateline are over:
Earlier I said not more than 54% 2pp for ALP.
Sort of instinctive based on several things:
Vic swing likely to be low as a low swinging state, no low hanging fruit and a teachers strike and police fuss this week feed into the Liberal propaganda. Also by my understanding as it is a national weighting larger states would have a greater effect on the result? correct?
Qld likely to see a big swing but may not have a high 2PP as vote was SOOO low last time (as well as historically) Still should win a lot of seats – even winning 8 still means the coalition has a majority by my recollection.
NSW likely to drag the 2PP up as historically a good labour state. May be dragged down by lower swings in Eden-Monaro (should still win and in Canberra if this is in NSW vote) I think the Rudd axe to PS will influence a few people, (particularly in Jerrabombera which is the growth area of Queanbeyan and tends to vote Liberal) and just save Humphries in the ACT Senate
Smaller States will probably cancel out each other if I am right about the weighting, but for completeness:
SA very low last time also so biggish swing
ALP Should win both in Tassie
Just to be bloody minded how about a seat swap each way in WA! (like SA last time)
Solomon could be close – I used to live in Darwin and the intervention probably went down well there.
On a historical basis: Labour has never got above 53.2% (I think) which was in 1983 ever since 2PP since 49. Even to 53% would be a big swing from 2004
Now about the polls: I seem to recall that on one of these posts that Galaxy were way out at the last Queensland election. This seemed to be reflected in their state by state polling whenever it was. perhaps their Qld calculations are dicky which would be affecting the average if a big swing is actually on there.
As I have been keeping up with the possum and pole bludger in recent weeks can I ask: Why, given the bias of the Australian’s writers and editors why do so many right minded people bother reading it!!
Finally love the site possum, and enjoy the sophisticated level of analysis that is also well written. And – happy with either format.
Active Emu said
Oh – forgot to add – preferences could be tricky because I suspect people not happy with Rudd’s me to-ism on some things are going to the greens and then back to labour – which may be affecting the primary vote but also bump up ALP preferences compared to 2004. – Does this come out in the Stats Poss, or are the samples too unreliable for minor parties?
Rod said
When (if ever) did the SMH, DT and Australian last ALL endorse Labor in the same Federal election?
Cheers
Rod
Kate Parker said
128. V interesting comment re preferences. All the Gen X/Y people in our office are voting Green with prefs to Labor (in Curtin which is safe Lib seat), so wonder how this will impact the final results. Because Curtin is rusted-on Libs, won’t affect HofR as much as Senate I imagine?
Socrates said
Poss and others, this is from a curretn thread at William’s site, but William has reported advice from “Toby” (who William regards as reliable) with the Newspoll result for each State, translating to 54/46 overall, with very strong swings to Labor in Qld, less so in SA and NSW. To be published Saturday.
David Richards said
Is there any realistic chance, given all the aggregate of all sources available, the the coalition could win? What sort of probability? It seems that so much has to fall the coalition’s way that it is not plausible… merely possible.
ShowsOn said
The most confusing thing is that Galaxy keeps showing QLD with a small – medium swing of around 5%, but a big swing in NSW. Newspoll seems to be showing smaller swings in NSW, but very big swings in QLD nearly 10%.
Down and Out of Sài Gòn said
Possum,
It’s a tie between you and LP as to which is the best electoral blog. (Mad props to Pollbludger). Anyway, I’ve been reading blogs for the last couple of years – but I have to say that Australian Political Blogging shits over the rest of the world – even the US Blogosphere. Great and timely analysis on this hand versus dated and parochial advocacy on theirs. Best year ever, 2007.
Thank you and cheers,
Down and Out.
beentoolong said
More details of ACN poll now available on Age website (front page).
Hamster said
Dear Poss, allow me to join the chorus of thanks and congratulations for this wonderful site.
Over the course of this interminable campaign I have returned for soul-food, sanity and serenity over at cousin Poss’s every time the MSM glee club start singing “I did but see Janette passing by” or banging on about Teh Narrowing (“Its coming! Core promise!”).
And thanks to your quality predictions I will have had the foresight to get in an extra slab of Coopers and a Jumbo pack o’crips.
David Richards said
from The Age – “A new Galaxy poll in News Ltd papers also shows Labor ahead, but by a much narrower margin of 52 to 48%. These figures could translate into a narrow Labor majority, a hung parliament or even a Coalition win.”
Now – even if Galaxy was right, what are the relative odds of the 3 outcomes mentioned?
David Richards said
A belated thank you to Poss and all his sources and all other psephologists. You have given me some glimmer of hope that all is not lost for Australia, and the Dark Ages of King John are about to close, with a Renaissance to follow.
Stephen T said
I have never lied. Can you believe the gall of this creep.
Katrina said
Interesting article in the SMH:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/scandal-adds-to-humiliation/2007/11/22/1195321948271.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Particularly this bit:
“Today’s poll, incidentally, with a sample of 2071, has a margin of error of 2.2 per cent. Its accuracy is supported by the fact that the pollster, Nielsen, conducted a parallel poll, asking the same questions, with a different sample using a different methodology – online rather than phone. And it came to precisely the same conclusion on the two-party vote.”
Stephen T said
I got the 5000th post Woooo! Yeah!
Stephen T said
Quote of the campaign: Little Johnny
I HAVE NEVER LIED!
My god the gall of this idiot. He really does not read anything. As research clearly demonstrates lying and deception are normal human traits used to varying degrees by all of us. We have been ruled by an idiot for eleven years and doesn’t it show.
Katrina said
And further on the Nielsen poll:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/last-figures-show-howard-needs-a-miracle/2007/11/22/1195321949364.html
“The poll sampled 2071 voters between Monday and Wednesday and its findings are supported by a separate Herald/Nielsen online poll, which sampled 1421 voters over the same period.
The online poll also shows Labor leading by 57 per cent to 43 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis and by 46 per cent to 38 per cent on the primary vote.”
Christian said
Guys… The Australian just endorsed Rudd.
The Age… wimped out and didn’t commit.
Hope I Don't Wake Up said
The Libs’ online newspaper ads (flashing “financial markets crashing” labor are “fanatics” and “extemists”, etc) remind me of Hewson’s “Keatings got to go” rallies.
Totally counterproductive I reckon…out of control and in need of killing off.
ho_hum said
“When (if ever) did the SMH, DT and Australian last ALL endorse Labor in the same Federal election?”
AND The Curious Mail here in Brisvegas!!
Tassieannie said
Thanks Possum for your terrific site and my sanity. Now I just want it to be over!
Robert Beswick said
@ 144
The Oz has indeed backed Rudd.
Now I’ve seen everything.
David Richards said
When the fascist’s favourite rags back the ALP – you know there must be something big happening!
Refried Noodle said
You cheeky little Possum!
Our little fluffy vertebrate popped up in the Canberra Times this morning!
Accompanied by an article of course, not just random possum’s all over the pages.
Who says you need to get off your arse to be able to campaign for a party.
Rod said
Christian writes : The Age… wimped out and didn’t commit.
I thought The Age dealt with the matter rather elegantly, Christian. No they didn’t tell people “vote for X” , but they made it abundantly clear through argument who they thought should win.
I was actually having a discussion with my “first time voting in a fed election” daughter about “Newspaper endorsements” earlier in the evening and she was very much opposed to newspapers telling people who to vote for. She felt that a) people should make up their minds for themselves and b) people often don’t like being told what to do, so that “prescriptive” editorials are likely to often be counterproductive.
Although I’ve never been opposed to the idea of an “editors choice” (despite not liking many that I have seen!) I found it hard to find a good argument against her.
paul said
The high and low sides of the MoE around 55/45?
paul said
Morgan is now 54.5% – 45.5%
Katrina said
According to an article I read in either the Oz or Daily Terror, they were indicating that Newspoll was closer to Galaxy than Nielsen. Big swing to Coalition in WA, and coming back to them in either Vic or Qld (can’t recall which). Surely they’re just talking up the narrowing again? What the hell has the Coalition done during the campaign that would suddenly bring them back?
Galaxy is scaring the hell out of me. Equal primary vote? How?
I’ve been a good girl this year. If I’m going to be stuck with the Grim Reaper once more (been in blue ribbon seat my whole life), surely the Election Fairy can leave me a Rudd government for my pain?
Burgey said
Hi Possum,
Just wanted to pop in and say thatnks for a great site and for a real insight into the world of pseph.
Thanks again, and my God I hope you’re right.
Ian said
First thanks for the great site and your lucid analysis.
Can you comment on the Hartcher article re doing 2 separate polls and comming up with the same figures. What does that tell us ?
Thanks.
bilko said
if the result is called early I will still be on the road back after handing out how to vote’s in the Alps I must try not to get too excited listening to the radio and have a prang Thank you possum for bringing a ray of sunshine into our live ALP 80+ forget the rest.
George said
Refried Noodle, do you have a link of the article?
Jess said
Can someone elighten me – what is the latest Galazy sample size – surely not as much as ACN??
nomad3 said
less than 14hrs to go people before E-day ..shit its been along time coming … I wanna thank all those kindred spirits that help inject sanity into this process through their lucid writings by providing clarity into this debate .. youve helped keep me sane ..thankyou all !!!!
Cant wait for next weeks blog
beentoolong said
“The Herald Sun/Galaxy phone survey of voter intentions was taken on Tuesday and Wednesday evenings and involved the views of 1186 voters.” From the Hun.
Paul the Avenger said
I’ve been conducting my own unofficial poll by driving around Bennelong and noting the number of houses (and business) displaying “Maxine McKew” posters prominently. I’ve seen about 100 so far this week.
The number of “John Howard” posters I’ve seen on private property: 0
Did the Libs forget to print any, or is he really that on the nose in his own electorate?
Jess said
Thanks beetoolong – see more reason to ignore Galaxy – ACN polled almost twice as many people… please everyone agree with me!
MsLaurie said
Poss! I opened up my Canberra times, and there you were!
I have to say, hearing about your background was almost a little disconcerting – I like to think of you scampering fully formed into our collective bloggy conciousness!
Anyway, just adding another voice to the chorus of ‘you’re awesome and you’ve saved my sanity’ 🙂
…
That said – had the oddest dream last night – suspect I may be just a little over obsessed with the current situation… dreamed that despite all the polls, and all of my certainty, that the seats just kept ticking over for the Libs, faster than I could count – and that I kept trying to stay up for the result, because I was convinced something would change, that suddenly the postals would be counted, and that massive swings to the libs would be found to be wrong… but it didn’t happen.
I’m going to be seriously stressed out tomorrow night…
But I’ll be doing my good work here in Eden-Monaro, and hoping for the best!
denise said
We always dream the opposite they say.
Bruce said
Re 132 David Richards:
“Is there any realistic chance, given all the aggregate of all sources available, the the coalition could win? What sort of probability?”
Well I’m a statistician and being a statistician means never having to say you’re certain 😉
But, no, there is no realistic chance.
I can’t put a probability on it and that would be difficult to calculalate. My guess is it would be less than a 1% chance.
Consider this: I don’t think there is one poll since Rudd became leader that put ALP 2PP at less than 52%. Yes polls may get the picture wrong, but they’ve been reasonably accurate in the past. And would all the polls get the picture wrong?
There have been many detailed statistical analyses of the situation based on polls, and it’s true that it is very hard to estimate how national or state polls will translate into seats won, but even if 2PP is as low as 52% (in itself unlikely) you have to get a very favourable arrangement of seat-byseat swings to get the Coalition over the line.
And the last Galaxy Poll. Well I haven’t seen the details yet, but it seems to be use polling in marginal seats to predict a national swing – a flawed methodology in itself. And it’s an outlier compared to other polls. Galaxy’s claim to be the best in the past is questionable as all polls contain an ineluctable (inescapable) sampling error that depends on the number of people sampled.
Pancho said
Hey Possum, I reckon if you wanted to add a donations button for upkeep here there wouldn’t be much grumbling.
RobertBe said
The relationship between News Ltd and their pollsters is a fascinating one. Remembering always Rupert’s primary mission in any election is come out of it with leverage/credit with the winner. The combination of the Oz and Tele endorsements on the back of tight polling numbers from their pollsters (assuming Newspoll is tight and I’m tipping 53/47) gives News the chance to say to Rudd on Monday. “Well done and no need to thank us for the push over the line (we’ll send the bill later)”.
Maybe I’m just paranoid…
Lomandra said
Can someone please help me out? I want to work out in advance the exact order for my voting below the line in the Senate (for NSW), but can’t find an easily printed-out list anyway. Basically, I want the equivalent of a blank ballot form. Anyone know where I can find one?
smssiva said
Paul the Avenger – 162,
I live in Epping and I think the posters are equally distributed in my suburb. My mother rang me all excited today morning saying that she received a call from John Howard listing the benefits she will receive from the Lib Government. I told her that it must be a recorded message.
B1 said
Over at Ozforums tomorrow’s Newspoll is being given as
N.S.W: ALP 54, COAL 46
VIC: ALP 52, COAL 48
QLD: ALP 56, COAL 44
SA: ALP 55, COAL 45
WA: COAL 52, ALP 48
Bruce said
Re 150, 164
I’ve only got access to the Web version of the Canberra Times (http://canberratimes.com.au/home.asp), so can someone please give me the link to Possum’s article?
Thanks
CL de Footscray said
The GG editorial suggested that the Newspoll would indicate a narrowing, but also said they were still polling last night. Maybe the leaks were early indications? Who knows. The editorial would have been written by early evening I suggest, so they probably wouldn’t have had any properly crunched data from Thursday night’s calls. You would expect those results to show a reinforced swing for the ALP, surely, given Lindsay-gate. Anyway, 54-46 still delivers 90 or more seats, which is fine by me.
CL de Footscray said
And BTW, a googleplex of thanks to you Possum, for the site and your lovely way with the regressions.
David Richards said
Ta Bruce – I’ll sleep easier with that in mind 🙂
I think we’ve had enough disappointment (1998/2001/2004), and that nagging “left the stove on” kinda feeling is hard to shake.
Thanks all – especially the marsupial with the mostest!
Big Tofu said
Pancho, I was just going to write something similar. I agree. Possum, I know you’re donating your time and you clearly don’t expect anything in return. But I’d love to be able to shout you the equivalent of a carton or a decent bottle of something via Pay Pal. you bloody deserve it.
Possum Comitatus said
Thanks all,
Pancho at 167, no need for donations – consider this a gift.I enjoy it as much as you guys seem to.
David Richards said
My mathematics is skewed more to physical sciences and logic (as applied to electronics), so my statistics is not even close to that of the august group assembled here, so the explanations have been much appreciated.
🙂
B1 said
Add my thanks too Possum; an excellent site.
And mercifully a site where I can be sure that I won’t be reminded of the terrors of unions; with the blackout induced blitz that is happening on most MSM sites today.
KaptainKrumpet said
http://canberra.yourguide.com.au/news/opinion/opinion/final-dash-but-score-in-doubt/1090894.html
Is this it, Mr Comitatus.
Possum Comitatus said
Nope KK, Jenna Price did the piece in the Canberra Times.
David Richards said
Poss – I’d be glad to shout you a bowl of fruit if you visit Adelaide 🙂
Jess said
Anyone seen this…interesting given the problems they have in their leafy liberal base… would have thought an arts policy might have helped…
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/lib-policies-left-on-shelf/2007/11/23/1195753263056.html
Aspirational Aspirationalist said
Lomandra & others interested in what the senate papers will look like
See the AEC’s group voting tickets, this shows what a senate vote above the line would be equivalent to below the line. (and if you ignore the numbers lists all candidates).
http://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/federal_elections/2007/candidates/gvt.htm
Jess said
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/23/2099148.htm
God lets hope and pray they are wrong!!!
Lomandra said
Perfect. Thanks so much (again!) Aspirational Aspirationalist. 🙂
please click the next internet page said
Hello to all, how is all, I think every one is getting more from this site, and your views
are pleasant in support of new people.