Polling angst and therapy thread – Open Edition
Posted by Possum Comitatus on November 23, 2007
OK folks – you lot seem to have more angst than a bunch of emo kids at country pub.
So jump on the polling couch, let it all out – you can even talk about your mum!
Will the polls narrow, will Howard sneak back in, is it really a landslide after all or just a good old fashioned electoral thumping?
Is it a Galaxy election, a Newspoll election, a Morgan election or does the ACN represent the electoral mood?
Newspoll out shortly.
Headline Newspoll figure 52-48 to ALP
Movement in WA and Qld, sample 2614
Now we have those figures, we can produce two new charts.Firstly, the 4 pollster average over November.
Secondly, a smoothed chart of all phone polls over the campaign period.
A shift from 55 to 52 in a week means 680 000 people have changed their minds in a few days.
I wonder if the primary votes are 45/42 to the ALP with minors on 13 and the Greens on 7 or 8?
The problem when Newspoll gets the number 13 for the minors is that they end up distributing preferences 53.8% rather than 61.x% (which is their 2004 prefs distribution target) to the ALP regardless of the size of the Greens vote. As a result, rounding issues compound realistic preference flows from the Greens to give an underestimate of the ALP TPP vote. That happened when Newspoll had the ALP at 53 a few weeks ago, before the rate rise and I said watch it bounce back next poll – which it did. That’s a house issue Newspoll has – they’re allergic to the number 13 in the minor party vote total.
It smells a bit like that and it would make the Newspoll series consistent with it’s history. If it is, I’ll explain tomorrow what that actually means as a real TPP vote level for the ALP.
Mr Mumbles hears that the primaries are 44/43 to the Coalition with 7 Greens and 6 others.
7+6 = the dreaded 13.
But this time they’ve actually overcooked the prefs by giving the ALP 8 rather than the 7 they’ve used previously (the 7 prefs is the usual undercooked ALP distribution for the dreaded number 13)
However – Over at PB, it was said that Martin ‘O of Newspoll on Brisbane local radio with Madonna King today stated that Newspoll upped the sample proportions for regional areas.
Can anyone confirm?
If so – that makes a lot more sense. Brave move by Martin if that’s what they did! (though I’m sure he weighted it properly)