The Polls before E-Day
Posted by Possum Comitatus on November 23, 2007
First up we have ACNielsen – with not one, but two polls.
First up is the telephone poll.
The headline figure has the ALP up 3 to 57, the Coalition down 3 to 43. This gives us the following two party preferred series:
On the primaries, it’s ALP up 1 to 48, the Coalition down 3 to 40, giving us the following series (thanks again to George P):
The poll had a sample of 2071 giving an MoE of a tad over 2%.
Not content with one poll, Mr Sirton in a feat of heroic polling also produced an online poll producing the same headline results of 57/43, but with primaries running 46/38 to the ALP. That one had 1421 respondents for an MoE of aound 2.6%.
Next up we have a Morgan poll of 1648 people and an MoE of around 2.5% giving up a headline TPP figure of 54.5/45.5 to the ALP, and primaries running to the ALP at 44.5/40.5.
Finally we have Galaxy suggesting a TPP of 52/48 to the ALP with primaries stuch at 42.5 for both major parties.
Someone is going to look like a dill on Sunday.
When we combine all this into our rolling 4 pollster average, we end up with the following over November.
The seats are the number of seats a uniform swing would have produced for the ALP.
91 is a very popular number, so keeping with the theme, here’s a rather popular ditty from 1991 that seems all rather appropriate: