Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

E-Day

Posted by Possum Comitatus on November 24, 2007

The day has finally arrived. After months of campaigning that felt like years, after the 100 odd pieces of polling analysed, the rumours, the research, the tips and the leaks – in 12 hours time Australia will have a new Prime Minister.

The question will be the size of the majority, and we’ll get a good idea of that soon enough. The marginals will count, but the big nasty surprise in store will be what Crosby Textor calls “LNP 5-10%” – Coalition seats held on a 5-10% margin.

These have been problematic for the Coalition all year as we’ve seen with the Oztrack polling, and while the average size of the swing to the ALP in these seats has reduced over the last few months, the swing is still large enough to cut out a significant parliamentary majority.

The marginal seats will deliver most of the numbers needed to form an ALP government, and there will be marginals that buck the swing – but these semi marginals are where the action is and where the size of the majority will be defined.

A rather copious quantity of horsefluff has been written over the last week about The Narrowing, yet far from the marginals tightening for the Coalition, the late swing apparently is to the ALP, particularly in NSW, and particularly in the seats that are on the fringe of the marginal classification. This is why the two leaders didn’t waste their time in the last week of the campaign in those marginal seats – their fate was effectively decided weeks and months ago.

It’s why Rudd was out fox hunting in seats with up to double digit margins, and why Howard was following. Rudd was campaigning not just for this election, but for the next.

The West is still good for the Coalition, in terms of only one or two seats being likely to fall – maybe even zero in net terms, yet this election wont be going down to the wire, we wont be staying up all night waiting for the Sandgropers to decide the nations fate. That will be decided early, and the West will just be a curiosity to the final outcome.

So go and do your part for our democracy – man the booths, assist the booth workers or simply just exercise your franchise. This day is our day, your day, the day where that little piece of paper and its accompanying little pencil make all of us equal.

293 Responses to “E-Day”

  1. Jon UK said

    good morning everyone, and best wishes for the day! I’m writing from the UK where it’s getting later on Friday night, and the temperature is nudging 0 degrees.

    Thanks Possum for it all over the past six months.

    I have a quick question – does anyone know of election coverage that’s being streamed on the net? I’m going to up bright and early in the morning to follow the count, but I’d really love to find a stream (ABC??) to watch.

    Any thoughts?

  2. Steve_E said

    Poss, your guidance, good heart and encouragement have kept me sane.

    Thanks.

    Where is my little pencil, it wants to go to work.

  3. dons said

    The ABC is streaming video and audio online, http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/coverage/coverage.htm

  4. Mark said

    Hey Jon UK – if you get Sky News UK, you can actually watch Sky News Australia’s coverage on one of the split screens that Sky UK uses…

  5. Cleanfred said

    Sitting in the back garden at the moment having some toast and coffee. All is good with the world now in Adelaide. I think I will have another serve of toast tonight to.

  6. Cannon said

    Possum – long time lurker, first time poster.

    God, I hope you’re right. Like so many others, I’ve waiting almost 12 long years for this day.

    I’ve never felt confident of a victory, despite all the polls – by nature I’m a pessimist, and the disappointments of the last four elections have oly darkened my mood this time around.

    But I’ve still hoped all along, and I’m still hoping, despite the poll madness of the last few days. I’d just like to thank you for your various analyses – they’ve me calm my nerves many times of late!

    Today is my father’s 73rd birthday. He’s a dedicated student of politics – the inspiration for my own interest in the subject- and a rusted-on Labor suporter(despite livng much of his life in safe Country / National Party territory – though his home seat is now held by an Independant). He’s told me that all he wants today is a change of Government.

    Come on, Australia – give my dad the present he so desperately wants!

  7. Martin said

    “Landslide to ALP” says Sportingbet’s Michael Sullivan

  8. Marko said

    Poss, I want to thank you for the PhD symposium in psephology I’ve been privileged to share in on over the last months. Your consistent, gentle instruction has been a fantastic learning experience for me – and many, many others. Once again, Thanks!

  9. Jon UK said

    thanks dons and Mark – I just found the ABC TV streaming link, that’ll do me just fine (unfortunately I don’t get Sky – well, not since getting it briefly to watch the last Ashes anyhow😉

    I hope everyone really enjoys the day – it’s the one day left where the whole country comes together as a community. Which is a feeling I’ve always loved. And I’d love to be there – I’m hosting some fellow refugees over for a breakfast barbecue instead. There’s a shop down the road that even sells Coopers Red. I’ll be scraping ice off the grate first, though.

    So yeah – enjoy the day🙂

    Thanks Poss.

  10. mick said

    Thaks from me too Possum, your coverage has been awesome.

    I hope everyone enjoys their days. Good luck to all who are out there working the polling booths!

  11. Kymbos said

    Yep, thanks go to you, Poss. Your analysis has been top notch… unless you got it all wrong. If you’re looking for consulting work post-election in Melbourne, we do environmental and resource economics. Drop me a line if you’re looking for a change.

  12. Possum Comitatus said

    Aw shucks Kymbos, you’ll make a possum blush:mrgreen:

    I actually have no idea what I’m doing after the election. I removed myself from participation in the labour market (so to speak) to do this blog for the election after it suddenly became rather popular. Now that it’s all over I actually have to go and find something to do to pay the bills. I think I’ll take a week or two off first before I decide.

    But thank you

  13. adam said

    poss – despite stats, there’s always a weeeee chance of being wrong. you won’t be wrong, but even if the bus goes over the cliff on the last day it’s been a grand tour nonetheless. so keep on truckin!

    see you on the other side in the alternate universe
    warm regards
    adam

  14. Tassieannie said

    Off the do my bit for YR@W for a few hours and for the country. Share the hyperventilating.

    Thanks Poss – you’ve been awesome.

    Happy birthday Cannon’s dad – I’ll do my best!

  15. hugorune said

    God bless you, Possum. Your words are an inspiration to all who believe in honest government, social justice, and karma.

    I’m going to sleep after working a nightshift, then wake up to go and hand out HTV cards in the arvo before settling in to watch the Reckoning.

    Have a great day all.

  16. Rudi said

    Possum can I suggest you set up a donation button on your site so that those who wish to can make a donation to a good cause. I for one have greatly appreciated this site and happy to pay for the experience.

  17. Jason said

    Hi Poss – it’s nice to read this even through the hangover I sustained trying to relax a little last night. You’ve been essential reading in the youdecide2007.org bunker, and we’ve tried to spread the word in our Club Bloggery columns too. You’ve had a fantastic campaign – Vote 1 Possum.

  18. Warbo said

    My thanks as well, Possum, for all your great work. Good luck in whatever you decide to do next.

    Good luck also to everyone else, of course. Never forget how lucky we are to be able to vote, grumble publicly about the result if it’s wrong, celebrate if it’s right.

  19. aj said

    Poss, just like to say thanks, you left your fur balls all over the place, but you did it in patterns and graphs that made sense.

    Will you be leaving your fur on future blogging? I hope so.

    Thanks AJ

  20. Kevin said

    I am a relative late-comer to this site but I’ve gotten addicted quickly. Thanks very much Possum and all who have contributed intelligently, humourously and sincerely.

    I am a little nervous about today – I think I’ll leave the country if that lying toad is re-elected. I’ll do my best not to show my nervousness when I hand out HTV cards later.

    Cannon, tell your Dad that I’m adding one vote to his birthday present.

  21. kiwipundit said

    Possum,

    As someone from across the Tasman who made a prediction in January this year to family and friends that Labor will win the Australian federal election this year, I have taken a keen interest in the campaign.

    I’ve visited various election and psephology sites, but I’ve found your blog fascinating mainly because of your analysis of polling trends (you must be a pollster or have worked as one in a previous life). Many a time your analysis has calmed me down when some polls were showing the 2PP at 53% or less for Labor. Your analysis was also reassuring when last month the individual seat betting on average had Labor struggling to get the 75 or 76 seats they needed – I liked your phrase that the individual seat betting markets were as thin as Kate Moss after a laxative bender! Since then individual seat betting has shown Labor as the favourite in at least 81 seats – so those markets have at least been fattened up enough in the last few weeks.

    Anyway I must be one of the few people here who isn’t going to vote today – I’m a New Zealand citizen and resident. However I do have family and friends in Sydney, Brisbane and Perth – the latter being a Labor supporting uncle and aunt in the seat of Stirling!

    p.s. I wonder if you’ll be following the New Zealand general election next year. I’m sure you can quickly get your head around our Mixed Member Proportional (M.M.P.) system. My “gut instincts” and polling to date is suggesting a change of government in New Zealand.

  22. hergs said

    Possum thanks for the blog mate. This is the only place on the net where politics is discussed rationally, and where we can get away from all the bullshit out there. Top job champion.

  23. mate said

    Well, thank anyway poss, but whatever you do please keep blogging in some shape or form. Here’s an idea, go get a job with the Ruddster, personally I think he owes you alot.

    We sure as shit do😉

  24. HarryH said

    Today is the Day.

    The end of Howardism……..at last.

    Thanks for an enjoyable and educational site Possum.

    I still get tingles thinking of that day you dissected C/T’s Oztrack and i realised it was all over.

    Cheers.

  25. Possum Comitatus said

    Thanks folks, I’ll still be blogging after the election, fur on and all.

    Can expand into policy (my true interest) and, of course, the election fallout which will carry on for months.

  26. tomd said

    +1 on kudos to Possum. The pseph blogs have been compulsory viewing for an expat political tragic. Thanks!

  27. The Finnigans said

    Voted. ALP and green senate. And a msg to Howard on the ballot paper: “WTF Mr. Howard!”

  28. CK said

    Yep Poss. Great job. Good psephing and top-notch writing.

    Tumbrills greased and ready to roll!

  29. canberra boy said

    Possum thanks for the great work over the last six months. I hope you have enjoyed the time and effort you put in – it has certainly been worth it in terms of advancing public understanding of polls, statistics and politics. You inspired me to find out more about statistics, and I was surprised to find myself sitting up late at night working out things like standard deviations of swings at previous elections.

    I hope it will not be goodbye to this site – we at least have to have a look at the outcomes to see how they compare to various predictions.

  30. Roy said

    Just told an arrogant little brownshirt how to recycle his ” You Will Vote Like This! ” card.

    Thanks Possum for you own small but significant political Education Revolution.

  31. Country Kid said

    Yesterday afternoon libs were setting up at my kids’ local school (in Bennelong). They saturated the entrance with Howard pictures & anti labor posters.

    Over at Poll Bludger, I read that the libs had security guards protecting ‘their’ poll booth turf – with not much room left for the other candidates/parties that make up our democracy.

    That’s all a bit rich & a bit ugly – but then not entirely unexpected.

    Let today mark the end of wedge politics.

    And the rebirth of an vibrant ‘ideas based’ democacy – where ideology plays second fiddle to open debate.

    Bye John 57.

    Welcome the drought breaking rains that are coming with Kevin 07.

  32. Mike said

    Thanks Possum – couldn’t have made it through the year without the site. Best of luck to you in the future, and best of luck to all of us today.

  33. blues buffett said

    Two things

    1. Thanks Poss; this has been brilliant to get a “facts-based” analysis during the campaign. I’m new to pseph stuff, but hooked!

    2. 29 Roy: remember it’s everyone’s day. All sides up and down the country. Many of us are passionate. Let’s set our own standard and respect others too. Still confident with Labor 87 seats!

  34. Tom said

    Well, I have done my democratic duty for the day.

    Tonight will be watching the election coverage (as usual) but this time have an added interest, $200 of my own money plus some freebets riding on some seats.

    Put $100 freebet on Maxine in Bennelong. That would be so sweet in so many ways!

    Have money on Mike Bailey in North Sydney also on ALP candidates in Ryan (thanks for the tip, Poss) and in Boothby and Sturt in my state of SA, etc.

  35. Kay said

    Hello Poss

    Glad to hear you will still be blogging after the election. Whatever the result, there will be plenty to analyse. I have relied on your blog to understand the intracies of the polling and it has been very much appreciated. Thank you – heaps and heaps.

    And my wish for the outcome? I detest Howard’s divisiveness and can’t wait to see him gone. Added to that, I can see that he is just squandering the wealth this government is enjoying, giving breaks to all and sundry instead of investing in infrastructure, education etc for the future. It sounds like Rudd’s line, but it is true. I hope I don’t have to put up with distancing myself from the poltical process and can once again feel that my government speaks for me as well. We will know in 12 hours – or less.

    All the best Poss – but if you close your blog, please tell us addicts where to find you!

    Kay

  36. Ron Brown said

    POSSUM A QUESTION PLEASE FOR A “FAINT” HEART

    1/ Have you been able to approx. quantify how far out the Newspoll is due to their over weighting in regional polling and

    2/ can you give us a little depth as the state or states where Labor’s vote is UNDERSTATED due to Newspoll’s over weighting regional polling

    thanks for your your feedback

  37. Dasho said

    Ahhh..I feel a little better after reading that.

    Thank you for your consistently informed and lucid analysis.

  38. Possum Comitatus said

    Ron, unfortunately I cant do either.

  39. Alan H said

    Thanks Possum. As you know, I have been a follower almost since Day 1. I really do think you should ‘come out’. There are many of us you would like to follow your career, and, perchance, assist.

    cheers,

    Alan H

  40. Enemy Combatant said

    “Overture, curtain, lights!
    This is it. The night of nights.
    No more rehearsing or nursing a part.
    We know every part by heart!
    (dah-dat, dah-dat) (cane flip)
    Overture, curtain, lights!
    This is it. We’ll hit the heights!
    And oh, what heights we’ll hit!
    (dramatis personae procession)
    On with the show, this is it!

    Tonight what heights we’ll hit!
    (dah-dat, dah-dat)
    On with the show, this is it!”
    —————————————-
    Possum, the last few months have been one helluva ride.
    Been a Group1 election junky(Oz Federals and Seppo presidentials), for longer than I care to remember but have NEVER participated in a pollytics forum as informative and as much fun your blog.

    “Muchas gratias, senor. Muchas gratias,compadres.”

    (replaces sombrero, mounts up, draws pistols firing indiscriminately skywards and gallops into sunset fulminating…….)

    “RODENTES!?! WE DON’ NEED NO STEENKIN’ RODENTES!!”

  41. Lyn said

    I add my thank you to the others Possum. You’re a national treasure.

    I particularly enjoy the way you put the strategy stories together with the numbers to explain the whole picture. If you put that much energy into blogging for nothing you’re going to make some future employer very happy indeed.

    I don’t suppose there’s much chance of it happening, but if there was any justice in the world your mailbox would be full of thank you letters from MSM journos. Brilliant stuff.

  42. not.so.very.worried said

    Look at the state by state primary votes in Newspoll:

    NSW: 47/42/7 ALP/LNP/Green
    VIC: 47/43/6
    QLD: 49/43/5
    SA: 48/38/5
    WA: 43/50/8 <– this is an obvious outlier!!

    I think in this election 90% of Green and Dem and other centre to centre left party 2nd preferences will go to ALP as people are sick to the stomach of LNP shenanigans. So overall 2nd pref split will be 75%/25% ALP/LNP this time.
    So the TPP east of WA will probably be about 57/43 as predicted by AC Neilsen…
    Does it matter what happens in WA with that result?????

    Is this a fair analysis Possum?

    Has any party ever one being 5-6% behind in the primaries Possum??

  43. KatieLou said

    Possum,

    As a avid reader of yours I’d just like to add my thanks for your fantastic analysis on this site. Like many others have said, it has restored my sanity at various times, including this morning after an unsettled night, worrowing the teh narrowing might actually materialise.

    I’m sitting down tonight with a bottle of champagne, glued to Antony. Here’s hoping I won’t wait long to open it.

    Thanks again.

  44. Roscoe of Queens Park said

    Hi Poss
    What a great site.
    Please – your prediction?

  45. Possum Comitatus said

    To win being behind in primaries requires a big preference flow in the right seats. For the Coalition, that means they need a One Nation type party to deliver them the goods as occurred in 1998, where the marginal seats received big One Nation preferences and pushed the Coalition over the line.

    Today, like 2004 and even 2001 before it, the bulk of the preferences are coming from the left side of politics – from the Greens, so the Coalition wont get good preference flows, they’ll run the the ALP higher than 60/40 if the polling is correct.

  46. Possum Comitatus said

    Roscoe – 89 seats.

  47. Dylan said

    Hi Poss

    I’ve been lurking for a few months here since discovering your blog through Crikey, and this is my first post. Congratulations on the blog, your analysis has been informative, educational and entertaining – now I just hope it’s right!🙂 You’ve really shown up the the deficiencies in the MSM analysis – I now find myself getting angry at the TV news when they show polls without sample size or error margin, and when they talk about a “trend” when really they only mean the change since the last poll. Hopefully this will cause a shift in the MSM toward more of this sort of analysis, and hopefully blogs like yours will flourish in the future as part of our political process.

    Sticking my neck out: Labor 87 seats

    Good luck!

  48. OzFrog said

    Possum, you have been just awesome this election campaign. Thank you so much for putting my mind at ease on so many occasions!

    There is a mood for change, and the time to act is now! Let’s do it people!🙂

  49. Colin said

    Thanks Possum for some very insightful analysis. I have been following this blog for four months and it has consistently remained a beacon of professionalism and good sense. I also have enjoyed the quality of feedback and chat on this site which has not to my knowledge ever degenerated into silly political tit-for-tat nonsense. I am very confident it will be somewhere between bad and ugly for the Coalition today and tomorrow, here in the North, we will have a new member for Herbert. Must go and bang in my nail.

  50. Hemingway said

    Possums,

    Muchas bloody Gracias for all your hard yakka on this blog.

    Any thoughts on this morning’s Morgan which still shows a 5.2% swing in the marginals?

  51. SethHakan said

    Thanks so much poss, thanks….🙂

  52. Roscoe of Queens Park said

    Well done buddy. I will take a 89 ‘er

  53. Nostradoofus said

    I love you Possum. You calm my nerves. I’ve left you some fresh fruit on the balcony for tonight.
    🙂

  54. imacca said

    Thanks for the site Poss. I’m off to spend the say on booths for the forces of light and goodness. I must be taking this seriously as i have ironed my t shirt.

    Good luck all, and electoral death most profound to the Rattus Crew!!!!!

  55. Dylan in Murray said

    Another voice to the ‘Thanks, Poss’ posse! I only found this site a few days ago, and got addicted last night after the newspoll got me worried. I’ve done my duty, although I’m in one of the safest coalition seats in the country, so it doesn’t make a lot of difference other than a protest vote. Your ‘poll angst’ post was compulsive reading last night and this morning.
    Let’s all hope you’re right, we can kiss off the rodent today and start repairing the damage!

  56. helen said

    I give my thanks also Poss, for being a security blanket for me when the polls and those evil Lib lackey reporters have got me edgy.
    I’ts only the 2nd time Iv’e posted but I’ve been lurking for a couple of months.
    You are always welcome at my place and you’d feel right at home as we’ve got lots of your rellies (the bushy tail ones) that come for a feed of a night too.

  57. FrozenGonad said

    This is calming to read. But if you’re wrong, I’m leaving out Possum traps tomorrow night.

  58. Evan said

    Nice effort all year Possum. Now, I’m off to the polling booth to realise some deadly intent.

  59. not.so.very.worried said

    What the hell is wrong with the WA newspoll result: WA: 43/50/8 it adds up to 101%? what’s going on here Possum?

  60. not.so.very.worried said

    Mumble says 89 seats to ALP…

  61. JustAlarmed said

    Good morning all, just finished 2 hours handing out HTV cards for Nick X in Boothby. I think the seat might actually be knife edge.

    Here’s hoping… Have a great election day!

  62. David Richards said

    Job Done!

    Johnny says no anger?

    I gave his YoungLib lackey some anger to take home to his master.

    Pity I didn’t have a baseball bat – even an inflatable one.

    Comment by David Richards — November 24, 2007 @ 8:37 am

    Apart from WA, any signs of any salmon swimming against the current?

  63. Mullo said

    Poss,

    Just what we needed this morning to calm the nerves and get us all back on track. I’ve been an avid reader (lurker) throughout the year and your work has been a beacon of insight and level-headedness. For that I thank you.

    Enjoy the day punters! Bask in anticipation of victory. Party hard. Bask in the warm glow of victory tomorrow.

  64. David Richards said

    Thanks to poss and his relatives for the oasis of reassurance in the desert of deception that is the MSM.

    I think I will go and splash out on a bottle of bubbly in anticipation.

  65. Neilbris said

    Just used my pencil to stab the PM in the eye…figuratively speaking. If the old political myth is right – that early crowds mean the government is done for – then the government is done for – in Ferny Grove, Brisbane at least.
    I spent some time talking to a couple of young Lib booth workers (I’m a lawyer and they’re both law students) hoping they’re young enough to save their souls. I commented on the appalling negative Lib campaign. The response – “Yes it’s wrong but we have to do it that way now!!” (And these kids were outspoken Christians). I told them that that’s the kind of thinking that caused the Lyndsay behaviour. And that’s the point folks. Under this government a complete lack of values is encouraged – and even seen as somehow noble. Even the young have lost their idealism. This government must fall so we can reclaim our national soul.

  66. Ron Brown said

    POSS SUPPLIMENTARY QUESTION PLEASE

    a/ did you include Newspoll as just ONE of 4 polls yesterday when coming to your election prediction ?

    b/ did you treat the Newspoll as just a FURTHER part of the trend line to
    Labor when making your prediction ?

    c/ when making your election prediction , did you completely disregard yesterdays Newspoll because its inconsistent with what you feel the Newspoll result should have been using their normative criteria/methods???
    (whether caused by regional weighting or whatever)

    Poss , just trying to get a feel as to your Poll based reasons

    thanks again

  67. An Interested American said

    As a somewhat clueless American, can someone explain to me why there’s such a disconnect between WA and the rest of the country?

  68. Pancho said

    Possum, can’t wait to read your policy work.

  69. gusface said

    Poss

    prediction

    Raw lib primary to be 29.8%

    that will be the narrowing everyone will talk about

  70. Mathew Cole said

    Poss,

    Thanks for calming more than one faint heart – this one among them! Your analysis makes so much more sense (once one gets through the heavy number-crunching parts) than the MSM’s….

    Bring on the annihilaton (I hope!)!!!!!

    GO KEV!! Bury that little rat!!

  71. Neilbris said

    I noticed the Democrats in Qld (Bartlett) have a split ticket. If I had any thoughts of giving them my Senate vote they lost it there. What were they thinking? Surely the abuse of this government’s senate majority should have ensured the Dems preferenced Labor? Nope…they remained non committal which is the very reason they will disappear from the political scene today.

  72. Possum Comitatus said

    Interested Amercian, It’s the remoteness of WA that does it. Perth is actually the most geographically isolated capital city in the world.

  73. Mathew Cole said

    Oh, PB appears to be going down or something…. is there a way for you to check Poss?

  74. banana said

    The mining boom in WA leads a lot of people to think that things are going very well right now and shouldn’t be changed, as a lot of people think only about money😦
    Also, being thousands of kilometres away from the rest of the country, we do tend to be out of sync a bit.

  75. Possum Comitatus said

    PB still looks up Matthew

  76. Mathew Cole said

    Poss,

    It’s also because (voting issues aside) we ARE the superior life-form on our continent, dont’cha know?🙂

  77. The Steel Golem said

    It’s official, the LNP are damn worried about losing Ryan (that a swing of 10.4%). Have seen 5 booths in Ryan and there is at least 150 meters of ‘wall to wall’ bunting at each. There is no room left for any other party anywhere near the entrances. It appears that when the Libs were “Bunting” they had removed the teachers union “Public Education” signs at the schools entrance. There was more bunting then a used car yard…It smelt of desperation…It looked like a used government sale.

    There were at least 10 Liberals working the HVT, to about 5 Labor (one of which was handing out the Green tickets) when I left.

    I was also shocked at how aggressive the HVT people were towards each other. I turned up in a ‘Your rights at work T-shirt’ spoke to the Labor blokes and begged for a Kevin07 shirt (with the promise that I would go back at 1 o’clock for three hours of HVT) . When the Liberal bloke went to pass me his HVT card the Labor man said “why would he want that?” to which the Liberal bloke responded with “Let him make up his own mind”…WTF I turn up wearing an orange “Your rights” T-shirt and have since put a “Kevin 07” shirt over the top and asked if I could help with the Labor HVT…what made him think that I hadn’t already made up my mind?

    We drove past a few booths in ‘Brisbane’ which are a lot more balanced with the advertising and the numbers doing HTV outside.

  78. The Steel Golem said

    Forgot to add a “me to” and join the thanks Poss posse. You have done your part to keep me sane through the campaign…

  79. Gezza said

    The sharpened pencil was wielded like a stake in the heart of el Rodente. I politely (I was very polite) pointed out to the How to Vote workers, the piece of paper on which I had my vote all worked out & that I was quite capable of making up my own mind, despite 11+ years of the government trying to crush non-conformist thinking. I trust my deadly intent was clearly evident.

  80. Testcard said

    Hi Possum,

    Cheers for your many hours of great work. If anyone is still angsty about the polls, spare a thought for those of his who took part in the 2005 NZ election – the final polls were all wildly contradictory (as they have always been), and none of them were even close to getting the final result correct. However, the average of all polls was pretty much dead on!

    Will the poll of polls once again win the day? Probably.

  81. Return with Interest said

    Poss, This has been the most informative and rigorous psephological site I have ever come across. As a mathematician (not statistician) I am in awe of your analysis. Brilliant insightful and thorough.

    Put up a Donate Button !

    BTW just done the two hours handing out the HTVs on an Adelaide booth. Much different feeling (in a quite conservative part of town) compared to 2004. I felt the mortgage demographic going in to vote with a grim determination to get rid of Howard. I note that FF are preferencing Kate Ellis ahead of the Libs. So the biggest swing in Australia is very much on the cards.

    Look forward to the post election anaysis.

  82. Styx said

    Poss,

    Good to read you’ll be continuing after election. Whether they win or lose – it’ll be interesting to watch the fall out in the LNP. And it’ll be interesting to see how Labor shapes up in Government if they win. Whether, like for Howard, they will be able to keep the sheep’s clothing covering there true nature to stop scaring the sheep back to the other mob next election.

  83. Big Tofu said

    Possum, Kirribilli, Enemy Combatant and all you other witty waxers of the lyrical, it’s been a pleasure to reconnect with Australia, Aussie politics and Aussie humour (actually it’s been a hoot reconnecting with English speakers!). Japanese people have a great sense of humour, but irony tends to get lost on them.

    Best of luck all. I’ll be at a bit of a loss as to what to do with my spare surfin’ time once the election is done with.

    Poss, you say you quit your job to run this blog? Sure you wouldn’t consider putting up donation button?

    Cheers

  84. Lozzag said

    Thanks Possum your concise and explanative analysis of the polls has been fantastic. Unlike the daily tabloids and broadsheets, who have put their own slant on them.
    I have just been down to the polling booth (LaTrobe electorate). Couldn’t help but noticing that the usual Lib crew handing out how to vote cards had dressed down for the occasion, no more Harris Tweed jackets (sans leather elbow patches), no collar and ties, no Lib party T shirts. In fact the one I spoke to really seemed awkward being there and was more interested in the AFL footy draft being held today. Perhaps they’ve been reading your predictions and have already given up.

  85. andrew said

    Only found your site in the last week……thank god. We have been feeling a bit sick in the guts over the last couple of days as the big day got closer and those bloody 2 news limited polls came out and the media started screeching. Thanks for the calming words this morning. We live in Pt. adelaide electorate so off to boot the last remaining liberals into the water. Really hoping we get up in Boothby as liberal member there has done nothing. Cant wait to turn on the ABC election coverage and wait for those four juicy words from Kerry…….THE SWING IS ON!!!!!! Go you good thing!!!!!!!!

  86. Islander said

    I like the way this conversation is going – add my thanx too Poss – & great to hear you’re continuing

  87. Kamatsu said

    Thanks Poss for all the valuable insights, particularly your poll model.

    I’m meeting up with Paul Keating later on today to watch St. Antony on ABC. Should be fun, if we win🙂

    Proudly a member of the K07 team from day 1 of the Rudd leadership!

    ~Kamatsu

  88. tweetiepie said

    Possum.this morning’s Gittens’ column is another gem, focusing on the Big Lie re economic responsibility. How to re-educate the Oz electorate post November 24th will be a major challenge.

  89. Ratsak said

    Just got back from driving my nail in the Rodent’s (and Mr Farmer’s) coffin.

    Still have plenty to do today, but really my mind is on 6pm when I can turn on the ABC and watch Antony administer the last rights. (to either Club Vermin or our country’s good sense)

    Thanks and praise be to Possum and other on the blogsphere who have provided the alternative to the spin, lies and outright ignorance of the ‘traditional’ media. Your time has come and out democracy is better for it.

  90. WhoGivesaRats said

    Poss,

    Firstly, thanks very much for the analysis of the polls. I found you work to be required reading to have an understanding of what it all means.

    Hope that life after today is kind to you and that your future endeavours are rewarding. I also am glad to read that you are not going into retirement, as I am afraid that your site is my “fix” for the day.

    As an aside I must report that one of your relatives left a steaming calling card on my sons ute yesterday and I am afraid that the possum family was not that popular here for a while. No matter, a stick and an illegal use of a hose fixed the matter.

    Once again thanks Poss and all the best.

  91. Islander said

    For what it’s worth – i reckon the swing in the Picnic Bay booth in Herbert will be 7% judging by the morning so far

  92. Sir Henry Casingbroke said

    Yes, good point – the real disaster for the Howardistas will be the collapse of their vote in their safe seats because it will undermine their future, and that can’t be a bad thing. Indeed, this may have the consequences of polarising, and maybe even splitting the Liberals into McPhheeites and Clarkists in the way of the ALP-DLP schism. Intersting times ahead and I am looking forward to dissecting the corpse in the coming months.

    In the meantime you have run a splendid orgy of psephing. Hear, hear! Well done Possum Comitatus! I think you should add a little kicker to your masthead: “A well regulated website, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear polls, shall not be infringed.”

    I’m off now to put Tony Abbott dead last. Nyuk, nyuk, nyuk. Woob, woob, woob, boo, woob.

  93. John G said

    Thanks Possum for a great site. It’s the first I turn to when wanting to get a handle on what is really going on.

    I would also add that those who despair at how conservative WA voters appear to be should consider our media landscape here. The West Australian is a disgrace and makes The Australian appear a Maoist propaganda rag. The local ABC morning program here is filled with Liberal stooges ( including the host). Despite this even the latest Newspoll has half of us against the Coalition. The real figure will be higher and at the state level I doubt we will see a coalition government in the next 10 years ( we have finally got rid of the gerrymander ).

  94. Mountaingoat said

    I am off to hand out htv cards for the Greens in Fairfax. Having just been down to vote myself and seeing all the people walk straight past the liberal htv team I am feeling somewhat heartened and hopeful Fairfax being a ‘safe’ liberal seat and all…. Thankyou Possum for this excellent blog. All the best everyone🙂

  95. Cannon said

    Back from voting – and eating a very nice sausage sandwich from the P&C stall – at my kids’ old primary school.

    Interesting to note absolutely no posters of Johnny – just a few of local Liberal Senator Gary Humphries, who’s in real danger of losing his seat. He was in a few of my clases at Uni some decades back, seemed a decent bloke and has a reasonable reputtion – but tough luck, Gary!

    Although I’m always sure of my vote when I walk in, I usually take copies of all the major HTV cards – I’ve done the job, and I know how thankless a task it can be. Today, though, it was a polite and smiling, but firm, “No thanks” to the Liberals.

  96. Islander said

    Poss – more on the need fgor you to get a donastion button – It strikes me that there may be a good business (al a Crikey) in running an independent commentary on polling of any type that’s used publically…..

  97. An Interested American said

    We had big crowds early in the morning of ’06 too. That had always tracked with a throw out the bums sentiment here too, and low and behold later that night the slaughter commenced.

    The distance (which is almost cultural?) and economy explanations make a fair bit of logical sense now that you mention it. At least its not the absolute disaster of a cultural, historical, and religious chasm that we’ve got between the South and the rest of the country in the States (which long term is a big problem for the Republicans because of the self reinforcing tendencies of that region).

  98. Firemaker said

    Interested American,
    The mining boom and the newly introduced Industrial Relations (IR) legislation is considered very good for WA. However it is peceived by workers in considerably larger eastern states (NSW, Victoria, SE QLD) that while the country overal is doing well they are missing out. They also consider that the IR legislation shows that the government is mean spirited and did not inform them that they intended to introduce it prior to the last election.

    There are other issues which affect the election but this is the main difference between WA and the rest of the country.

  99. Lomandra said

    Let me add my voice to the crowd extolling you, Possum. I daresay that if you’re looking for work after this, you’ll be inundated with offers, and rightly so. It’s not just your perspicacity, but your patient explanations. You’re an excellent teacher. Thank you so much for the last six months or so.

    Just voted, with my carefully constructed below the line list of Senate votes. (The top and bottom were pretty much based on the Greens’ preferences, but I put the Dems and Labor a bit higher up. It’s very satisfying to craft your own list, but I’d never try doing it on the run in the polling booth!)

    There was a woman behind me whose friend told her that she was holding a Greens HTV, when she thought she’d picked up a Libs one. Her reaction was such that you’d think she’d found leeches all over her arm. *sigh* Sometimes it’s no fun living in a safe Liberal seat. But at least my charming MP, Mr Ruddock, while he’ll keep his seat, will soon be out of Government!🙂

    Anyway, thanks again, Possum. You’re a possum.

  100. Rain said

    Hey , interested American. Mo9st have got it right.

    Its the isolation, and the mining boom over there. Outside of their one major city, which is the most isolated city on the planet – there is an enormous mining company town culture dotted everywhere, which date back to the 19th century frontier morality.

    Much of it has been sold off to multinationals as well.

    There is a joke running round though:

    Q: Why wont WA swing to the party on Saturday?

    A: They haven’t a *thing* to wear!

    B: They are comnpeting with QLD for the national title as the biggest “redneck” State.
    (QLD seem happy to concede defeat, no more Pauline Hansons or Joh Bjelkes we hope!)

    C: They never forgave the rest of the country for all the elections called before their polls closed, and its *payback* time!

  101. Amaranthus said

    The final polls are in, so we have 6 in all. I’ve allocated preferences as 75% green to ALP and 50% other. This gives the following table (with sample size as 2nd column):

    ALP n Poll
    53.75 2615 Newspoll
    55.63 2071 ACN(p)
    56 1421 ACN(o)
    52.13 1200 Galaxy
    54.25 1300 Morgan1
    53.13 2115 Morgan2

    The weighted mean is ALP 54.2% of TPP vote. That would yield around 90 seats.

    That is my final prediction. Let 6pm roll on!

  102. macondo said

    This blog has been a life support, thanks Possum.
    The spring day is warm, sunny and perfect here in Melbourne. May the air, the ground, the water, all the elements, be full of Ratsak.

  103. stavros said

    I’ve been lurking here for about two weeks. Thanks so much Possum for your psephological wisdom. In 2004 I was one of a crew of people on 2 small boats that went to Nauru to highlight the plight of the refugees incarcerated there in the “out of sight, out of mind” island gulag. The project was called The Flotilla of Hope. Apart from exposing the inhumane nature of Howardd and his cohorts, my deepest wish was to shame the Rodent so that people would vote him out.

    Yes, I was naive and yes we did achieve much in terms of having the refugees released and Aladdin who was in solitary confinement was also released BUT Howard still won.

    Now, I am waiting to see the Rodent lose his own seat and for a change in government.

    Possum, your analysis has helped keep up my spirits when I saw the Newspoll “narrowings”. Thanks again.

  104. Just Me said

    Like to add my applause for your outstanding work in informing and educating us, and keeping the MSM honest on the stats. (Watching them squirm under your clear psephological gaze must have been so sweet a reward. Go on, you can honest, you’re amongst friends here.)

    Without overstating it, I think it is fair to say that this site, and other like PollBludger, etc., have given a fresh and much needed boost to public debate and the democratic process in our country.
    The Aussie Fifth Estate has arrived! Just in the nick of time.

    Thanks Poss.

  105. molloby said

    Coming straight from voting against Nelson in Bradfield I know how you feel Lomandra.

  106. Min said

    Comment by Neilbris — November 24, 2007 @ 9:59 am

    If the old political myth is right – that early crowds mean the government is done for – then the government is done for…

    Please say it is so! I thought to get out early at our small country booth, so small that there was only 1 person ticking names off plus a supervisor. The queue was out the door and onto the verandah. I’ve never seen anything like it at 8.45am!!

  107. Martin said

    re post #67, Interested American: I lived in Perth last year, working for the ubiquitous daily paper, and there’s just no doubting they really are a breed apart in the wild west….

    it’s hard to put your finger on it, but at times I thought the place had a slightly nasty feel about it – there’s a callous undercurrent which is quite palpable. there’s something Ballardesque about Perth…

  108. Rain said

    Hey cannon @95 – *ditto*, at my kids old primary school. I always get a buzz out of seeing the next generation of kids school stuff, while waiting in line, and buying me P&C sausage. My youngest was also with me, voting from out-of-State today.(She’s home for the weekend from Sydney) She enjoyed the huge fun of voting at her old primary school hall.

    tho I never liked Gary H when he was in local politics, along with Kate Carnell. Cringed with shame during those years.

    The upside of living in a safe seat for your own team, is you tend to get along with most of the neighbours, no junk mail, no polls.. and they wouldn’t dare tear down the proud “public education” sign, though some of the well-dressed “grey vote” were there, produly carrying their Gary Humphries HTVs🙂

  109. Stephen T said

    Poss think you have reached legendary status. Much deserved all the best.

  110. gusface said

    canada 93 here we come methinks

    told ya’s

  111. Moondark said

    Voted at 8am this morning. Large queue at 7.50am AND saw a very large picture of John Howard out front on a Liberal poster (I am in Brownwyn Bishop’s very safe liberal electorate of Mackellar). Surprised me seeing the picture though. Did something I had never done before and walked up to a Labor guy handing out HTV cards and demanded he “hand it over” and voted accordingly. At least the vote may help in the Senate

    “Me Too” on the congrats Possum. Look forward to more commentary / analysis at and between future elections

  112. Min said

    Comment by An Interested American — November 24, 2007 @ 10:02 am

    Just to add a little to Poss’s comment, and this is just from personal experience, but my friends in WA are THRILLED that their values of their homes have doubled and in some cases have tripled and are yet to wake up to what the effect that this will have on their nearly grown children re affordability. It was the same where I live in NSW, 5 years ago.

  113. Neilbris said

    Min @106
    It’s interesting. A close friend across town in Dickson (Wayne Swan’s seat here in Brisbane) who used to be an AEC worker on polling day, has just told me that she has never seen a queue at her booth before today. The crowds are indeed out early meaning the electorate is motivated. Let’s hope it’s a motivation for change!

  114. An Interested American said

    Re: 110 Gusface

    Canada 93 is probably a stretch. You have to remember that the great PC Mulroney coalition virtually disintegrated in that election. Since you guys have preference voting, its something of a failsafe for the major parties. Also, Howard is nowhere near as despised as Mulroney was (to this day, if you bring up Brian’s name in a TV commercial, its dubbed by some as a scare tactic). Kim Campbell was also a disaster as a campaigner and helped the process along a fair bit. Reform stripped all of the PC’s bedrock BC, Alberta, and Sasketchewan ridings while the Bloc Quebecois had a field day in that province. The Liberals literally won by almost standing still and coming up the middle of the PC/Reform split in Ontario to the tune of 100+ seats and picking up a huge swaths of Atlantic Canada as well as odds and ends everyhwere else (ie Vancouver, parts of Edmonton and Manitoba plus a bunch of seats on the island of Montreal).

    Don’t get me wrong: the Coalition is going to get creamed

  115. teecee said

    Great work possum.

    I’ve been reading this site for a few weeks now and am heartily impressed with your analysis.

    Just voted in my safe Liberal eat of Dunkley. Big early turnout and not a photo of Dr Evil anyhwere, just Bruce Billson’s smiling face. (he’s actually run a good campaign down here by emphasising the words ‘positive’, ‘community’, and ‘future’ in all his literature)

    I was surprised by the amount of people ignoring the Lib HTV people. I had intended to be polite. After all, these people are volunteers and I’ve done this in the past myself. But when the Lib handed me the card I think 11 years of pent up hate rose out of my psyche.

    “I don’t think so”, I said in a not-very-nice tone, to which she replied
    “Dont squander our future by voting for the unions”.
    I said nothing and as I started walking away this 60+ middle class woman muttered “fool”.

    Just confirms to me how contemptous the Libs are of the electorate.

    I’m praying for complete destruction

    Great work Possum.

  116. Wayne said

    Have not blogged on this site before but have watched and read with keen and fascinated interest. Does that make me a ‘lurker’ as I read in some earlier comments? Feels good anyway and beats being a ‘smirker’ any day I reckon. Thanks Possum for the wonderful and ‘chicken soup for the soul’ analysis. I have detested seeing my country being slowly destroyed for the last decade or so, and can only hope against my own insecurities, doubt, and irrational fear of the potential imbecilism of more than 50% of this countries voters, traits notably I appear to share with many other contributors to your site, that today sees the end of it. I’ve done my bit already, taking pleasure in firmly but politely rebuffing the overtures of LNP and FF HTV folk, and hopefully making my very marginal (Labor)seat a bit safer. A good night to all, when it kicks in after 6p.m. and may all your wishes come true.

  117. gusface said

    cheers An Interested American
    I have been using canada 93 more as an analogy as opposed to a direct relationship
    BUT
    1.Canada had gst we have gst and worstchoices
    2.canada had a strong ‘grassroots” campaign which was missed by the MSM ditto oz but also add the internet and blogs like this
    3.Canada underwent a significant social change under mulrooney ditto oz-both countries were faced with a simple choice MONEY or SOCIETY

    also the reigning party were obliterated ditto oz (i hope)

  118. denise said

    first of all dear Min you cannot pay your bills with the value of your house did you pont that out, it is really only something that makes you feel good i suppose, till you really think about it, you cannot rip out a brick and pay the rates etc. can you.

    THANK YOU POSS

  119. Leinad said

    p055 = teh sh1zn17

    ph33r

  120. nasking said

    Great analysis Possum…I have been suspicious of the polls coming out of News Ltd. for some time. They are certainly underestimating the Green vote & how many will preference Labor.
    Keep up the good work.

    Almost time for a beer with lunch…a QLD 4X…:)

  121. Nick said

    Another vote of thanks for making the polling make more sense than it otherwise might…and for easing last minute nerves.

    As one poster rather monosyllabically noted on a News Ltd blog:

    GO YOU GOOD THING!

  122. Martin said

    just voted at Sacred Heart Church, nestled amid the subtropical splendour of Paddington’s lush hills (electorate Brisbane), and didn’t spot a single poster of the rodent…

    Kev was plastered everywhere, and the body language of the young libs at hand was very muted. being right on the edge of the electorate, I was interested to see quite a few people clutching Labor-only or Greens-only HTV cards striding purposefully towards the separate Ryan polling booth…

  123. codger said

    I live on the borderline of 2 NQ electorates, one 10% the other 7%; checked out both major booths: Not one picture or name of JWH; not one!
    Big lineups, vocal women with kids knocking back liberal balloons ‘not more advertising’. Feels like it’s on.
    Thanks Poss.

  124. CL de Footscray said

    I’m sure you know how much we love you Possum, but it’s nice to hear it said! Thanks so much for your work and calm navigation through the stormy waters of polling and regression analysis. Sadly, I live in one of the safest ALP seats in the country so all I can add to the total is a Senate vote, but I did enjoy telling the Young Lib doing HTVs how much I appreciated the Lindsay pamphlet and its contribution to our democracy. I feel my 89 seats are safe, but the little knot in the tummy still awaits 6pm.

    No doubt we’ll be back later!

    Thanks again.

  125. Cat said

    I have not had a chance to read the thread yet so I am not sure yet if what I say matches other’s experiences. Spent four hours on a booth in a marginal (Parramatta) and was very pleasantly surprised by the vibe. Also by the queues. Very long queues well past 10.30 and still longish queues when I left at 12. Despite the rain. I also found I was too busy to worry about tonight. Best therapy possible. Mind you if Labor could just train its booth captains it would help!! The young guy had never even helped on a booth before, floundered around and actually asked me “they don’t start till 8 do they”. He will learn but he made me feel ancient telling what he needed to do and stopping him making basic mistakes. I took it as a positive as there were also several other first time volunteers who felt they just had to help out.

    Going for another four hours in my own electorate of Berowra (Ruddock) and to put it mildly I am not expecting such a positive afternoon.

  126. CL de Footscray said

    You never know Cat, they might like to cleanse themselves of the undead!

  127. marty said

    Another report from the electorate of Canberra. Did our bit by registering three votes for the ALP.

    Got out early and voted at the local community centre. Haven’t seen anything like it in my time voting (since 1980). The queue was huge, the vibe was solemn. No banter, no sausage sizzle, no carnival atmos. Like filing into church for a funeral service. Bunting was wall-to-wall LNP but the Greens had a big presence and a lot of people were taking HTVs from them. I reckon Humphries is in real trouble.

    …and happy birthday to your dad, Cannon!

  128. Harmless Cud Chewer said

    The end is nigh!
    The end is nigh!

    Hey Possum, thanks for all the good stuff.

    Two things stood out in my mind. The first one was your analysis ages ago using the data that shows stronger swings in safer Lib seats. I’m a resident of Paterson and that gave me good cheer. Word here is the swing is on and it’ll be close. If we win Paterson you’ll have my enduring respect.

    Second, the other thing that stood out was that recent regression analysis. Still stand by 5.15% ? If it comes even close you’re gonna be a legend mate🙂

    As someone soon to be irrelevant once said, “if you change the government you will change the fundamental direction of the country”.

    Exactly!
    🙂🙂😀

  129. Sans Blog said

    Re # 31 “Yesterday afternoon libs were setting up at my kids’ local school (in Bennelong). They saturated the entrance with Howard pictures & anti labor posters.”

    My voting booth in Macquarie was the same this morning. I would be surprised if those posters had any effect on voting.

  130. Cat said

    You never know Cat, they might like to cleanse themselves of the undead!

    Comment by CL de Footscray — November 24, 2007 @ 11:46 am

    Oh but I will try and make them see the sense in the argumen! The line will be about making Berowra marginal. Regardless Ruddock will be gone soon and a byelection will hopefully bring further gains if tonight goes well.

  131. Neilbris said

    Both here and on PB the reports are coming in from al over the country of huge queues to vote. I’ve been voting for nearly 3 decades and have never seen it like this. What does it mean?? It means the electorate is motivated. This is not a sign of complacency; it’s a sign of an electorate that’s been chewing at the bit to vote. Not many takers for the LIB HTV cards in my Brisbane booth. It’s all reading entrails I know – but I like what they’re telling me.

  132. Psephoblog said

    Greetings from the Melbourne suburbs, fellow tragics. I can report that the masses were out to vote very early, there were already queues at some booths at 8.00 while we were still setting up Labor a-frames. John Howard’s face is nowhere to be seen on the Liberal material. The response to the Kevin07 bunting is very positive. I am feeling much more cheerful than I was yesterday after seeing the last Newspoll. Death to Murdoch press running dogs and their bogus polls, I say. Possum’s analysis has cheered me up further. I am still convinced Labor will won, although I don’t think it will be a landslide. My October prediction of 80 seats is looking about right I think. More later perhaps.

  133. tooweird said

    And now, the end is near;
    And so I face the final curtain.
    My friend, I’ll say it clear,
    I’ll state my case, of which I’m certain

    JWH is a dead man walking.

    Big queues this morning in Adelaide and Sturt.

    I’d like to add my thanks for keeping me sane Poss. And thanks for the music to blog by too, you’ve turned me on to some great bands. Can’t wait to hear your pick for tonight. Me? I was thinking of dusting off the Sex Pistols version My Way and dedicating it to Johnny. (If only Sid sang “Today I killed a rat” – instead “cat” – it would be perfect.) For trivia buffs – it was the last song both Sid and Frank ever performed live.

  134. SJP said

    Thanks Possum for your excellent work on all matters psephological. The site has been a great antidote to the poison & bile that has been espoused by many in the MSM. Thanks to all the bloggers on this site for their personal insights & comments.

    I love the smell of a lead pencil scribbling on a ballot paper! It smells like democracy!!

  135. SBT said

    Thanks for all your analytical wizardry Poss, from an Aussie stuck in Canada, wishing he could be home around the barbie, cooking rodent-on-a-stick, and sharing in the elation first-hand with my fellow countrymen when the evil empire falls (or, alternately, kicking the telly in if it turns out to be a non-core Labor victory). You’ve never failed to present something interesting, quite a feat in an election campaign! It’s been a pleasure sharing the ride, even if it was from the sidelines! You’re a legend.

  136. Paul said

    Folks,

    Is there anywhere, were we can find “exit Polls” (or even a site that aggregates anecdotal evidemce/comments from polling booths & HTV workers?).

    Paul

  137. John said

    Spent a few hours manning a pre-polling booth during the week and just voted. Observation from a hopefully not too safe Nationals seat in Central Qld, the people manning the Nationals booths are all of the older variety, no spread from young to old. Does this mean they will naturally die out as their support base and workforce also dies out.

  138. Cat said

    Well I am off to do battle again in a mo but I have an advantage over you Poss – my head is still small enough to get through the door. After all this love yours must be the size of Costello’s by now. Regardless I will ad fuel to the fire and say well done marsupial. Lets get some fur flying.

  139. Lyn said

    Fadden

    Liberal balloons and bunting everywhere, poster of Howard’s head nailed to a pole. Fishing and lifestyles got best possie at the gate, Liberals at either end.

    Heaps of people still in lines at 11.30 but the queue was moving quickly.

    Older people were taking Liberal and National HTVs, maybe half and half. The younger they got the more likely they were to take Labor HTV. Greens person looked a bit glum and bored. Solid for Labor in the under 30s.

    Nobody was HTV browsing. Everyone I saw made a beeline for a specific HTV. None of those clueless weirdos who take one of each HTV as if they’re sample bags or something.

  140. greggowa said

    Methinks there will be embarrassment within Galaxy and Newspoll – mischief therein I see. And of course the Libs no nothing of it.

  141. John said

    Paul @ 136 Spent some time at a pre-polling booth during the week, a safe Nationals seat 10.5%, anecdotal evidence and the vibe doesn’t put it at -10.5% for labor, it feels 50/50.

  142. greggowa said

    How fortunate that Rudd can win gov without WA.

  143. ruth johnson said

    Hey i got a phone call from the TOAD last night urging me to vote for lib candidate in Swan who in 6 weeks of campaign have not sighted but have had the pleasure of chatting with Kim Wilke on 3 occassions.
    The thing i am going to enjoy the most is not having to put up with Barbie Doll Bishop on tele.
    LABOR “GO YOU GOOD THING”

  144. Paul said

    John @ 141,

    Thanks. I voted in LaTrobe earlier – long lines. But Labor HTV put it down to not enough polling booths & AEC staff (this booth has apparently had a history of underresourcing).

    Still, I was surprised to see a lot of people there before 9:00am.

    Paul

  145. Mark said

    Hey Poss

    Just wanted to say a big thank you for all the stuff you’ve put up.

    The turning point of the the campaign (for me)was “Crimes against Psephology: Christopher Pearson you’re nicked.” Brilliant stuff – made this site a must see everytime a new poll came out.

    Cheers Mark.

  146. Mark said

    Fadden @ 139

    “Liberal balloons and bunting everywhere, poster of Howard’s head nailed to a pole.”

    Crikey the NSW right wing Libs don’t muck around when they want to get rid of someone.

  147. CL de Footscray said

    Howard’s concession speech avaialble from Nicholson …
    http://media.theaustralian.news.com.au/nich/20071123_secret_video.htm

  148. Goodbye Mr Thatcher said

    Leunig on the LNP after party:
    http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/2005/10/04/1128191706446.html

  149. Many thanks for your candid comments we can only hope that all of the polls are proved correct &that we are electing a Gov.with integrity ,ethics&moral priciples .We can only hope that this is the end of the arrogant deceitful, lyingnon core ,two day promises.meglomaniac we have looking out for his own intrests at present .

  150. Sans Blog said

    Where I voted in Macquarie NSW at 11am the hall was packed with four lines queuing. I’ve never in 17 years living here seen that before.

    This was a safe Liberal seat with an 8% or so margin but is now notionally Labour 0.5% since a recent redistribution.

  151. Mark said

    At my local polling booth this morning at 8.05am, there were children there with their parents and 2 little girls started singing “Beautiful Day” by U2…. and many of us oldies (I’m 32!) joined in with them… the swing must be on! We even have the 10yr olds, the future of this wonderful country of ours, doing their bit to perk the rest of us up!

  152. David P said

    Jeez, this is exciting. Can I go and vote again?

  153. Neilbris said

    Had a mental blowout earlier folks. My friend is in Lilley, which is Wayne Swan’s seat. Dickson on the other hand is the seat next to the one I’m in and is held by the Libs on over 9%. I’m told it’s in play and Kevin has been in the electorate at least twice in the campaign.

  154. Wingnut said

    Great to hear early crowds a good omen. Pre-opening queue at W Ryde School (Bennelong) longest I’ve seen. GetUp crew really active with cookies & pencils – Go Maxine!

  155. not.so.very.worried said

    This is good:

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/white-tracksuit-bottoms-flutter-over-the-bunker/2007/11/23/1195753306684.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1

  156. dany le roux said

    Same here ( Macquarie also )except there was one line of about 70 people at 10.30 and it took till 11.00 for me to finish voting.
    Liberal HTV people looking very underemployed and out of place – nobody wanted their stuff and the ecologically minded were handing back the YRAWork and Labor HTV pamphlets as they left just to rub it in.

  157. X said

    HHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

    AWARD winning journalist Caroline Overington hurled abuse at Labor candidate for Wentworth George Newhouse before slapping him across the face at a polling station in Sydney’s east, witnesses say.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22813949-12377,00.html

  158. Ron Brown said

    Poss , even if its after the Election , would be interested in your answers in
    my blog #66 for statistical interest

    Thanks for your work and look forward to policy discussions .

    SCHOOLS POLICY
    I’m strongly opposed to ALP adopting the Howard 2009-2013 Schools formula I’d like to see a higher % than envisaged going to schools in need , with only base grants to better off schools. Mr Rudd says ‘education is the engine room of equity’ then the proposed schools formula fails that test in my view

  159. Ron Brown said

    re my blog # 158

    putting lap tops in every school although an improvement , still leaves the existing basic inequity in the schools system

  160. WhoGivesaRats said

    Just back from putting the slipper into Kerry Bartlett (and the rodent) in Macquarie. It felt good and now I hope that the feeling continues for the next three years.

    Overheard a conservation at the booth … seems that some are very upset at M/s Kelly’s behaviour in the neighbouring seat of Lindsay. This guy wanted to take her parliamentary pension off her and was not too fussed who overheard what he was saying. Also there were none disagreeing with him.

    Hope it is typical.

  161. HarryH said

    To Stavros @ 103

    thankyou, from an everyday Australian.

  162. Bog Irish said

    Hi Poss, found your clear, intelligent, analytical blog, a couple of weeks ago. Saved me from sheer hysteria induced by the incredible poll spins of political columnists.
    Thank you. Hope you find a fantastic position, after your break and all power to you and your followers!!!

  163. Grumps said

    Poss,

    Must add my thanks for the effort you have put into this site. I have loved your analysis on various issue and getting up the MSM noses with more accurate analysis.

    Please keep going as insights such as your are desperately needed in this ‘El Rodent’ dumbed down society. Whatever the result I will keep visiting to take note of what you are saying.

    To @31 an @77 done my deed for Kev07 in Gellibrand (safe Labor, Nicola Roxon) . Booth I have always used (and our local primary school for our sons) no sign of liberal buntting , posters, HTV’s or workers. Checked out 2 other booths. 1 no Liberals, the 2nd in Williamstown carried minimal bunting and one worker with HTV. No sign of the endorsed neo-con, actually only effort made was to fill in AEC forms and I think the neo-cons must have pulled his name out of the branch lists.

    The obvious answer was the one you made Poss in firewalling. All funds avaliable moved to seats to minimise losses. Kroger mentioned on late line last night a loss of party membership and reduction in donations from big buisness. (Admission of loss of the doctors wives)

    All the best in the future🙂

  164. V said

    Thanks from the deepest darkest depths of my black little heart Poss. If I hadn’t stumbled upon this site a few months back I’d be in a corner somewhere dribbling on myself by now.
    Thanks all you regular posters for the numerous chuckles you gave me along the way.
    Goodbye and goodriddance to the rodent and his disgraceful bunch of bigots.
    Be warned Kevin, I don’t think I’m alone when I say I’ve been happy for you to play a pale imitation of the rattus up till now, but that must end tomorrow. Restore our faith Kevin

  165. Neilbris said

    One of the wierd things is that Labor is preferencing the Libs in Brisbane. There are 7 candidates and the HTV has the Libs at number 2. I’m sure they have sound reasons but I couldn’t bring myself to do it. Libs disappeared to the bottom of my preferences.

  166. Mark said

    Skynooz has commissioned an exit pole. Their official coverage starts at 4pm.

  167. Rod said

    Just back from handing out htv’s for the Greens with the family at Diamond Creek in the “city end” of McEwen.

    Good early roll up. The Greens and Labor had the pick of the spots and the biggest teams. Great ugly LP mobile billboard on the back of a truck causing parking and traffic problems. Not clever!

    Spent a few fascinating hours talking to a couple of Labor guys when the opportunity presented itself. One over from Footscray, the other , believe it or not, from England. He had timed his tour over here to co-incide with the election to take a look at it and decided to give a hand along the way. Did the same in the US last presidential.

    The Libs were all wearing very silly pink Fran Bailey baseball caps.

    Lots of people asking us questions about how preference flows worked – worried that voting for the greens and then labor would mean that the Labor candidate would only get part of a vote when the Greens didn’t get up. Determined that their vote , above all else, had to gain maximum value against the Libs. A fair number of disillusioned Libs wanting to vote green too.

    I love the vast array of “styles” you get from voters. The “must have one from everyone to be fair” people; the “walk through ostentatiously not taking anything from anyone” people; the “husband marching in front taking whatever card he has decided on while the wife and kiddies follow along behind trying to avoid eye contact with everyone else”; the “husband marching along in front brusquely brushing off everyone while wife an kiddies follow along behind – taking a card from everyone apologetically to make up for what she perceives as his rudeness” , the “I just want party x but thank you anyway” people, the “I just want party x and how dare you imagine that i might vote for party y” people, etc etc etc.

    Makes you realise what a diverse lot the poor old pollies have to try to cater for in their election strategies!

    Cheers

    Rod

  168. Rod said

    Neilbris wrote: One of the wierd things is that Labor is preferencing the Libs in Brisbane. There are 7 candidates and the HTV has the Libs at number 2. I’m sure they have sound reasons but I couldn’t bring myself to do it. Libs disappeared to the bottom of my preferences.

    Doesn’t make any difference, really, Neilbris, as long as Labor are going to finish 1 or 2 on primaries in Brisbane . They won’t really flow to anyone. In such situations parties often simply select the easiest order to fill in.

    Cheers

    Rod

  169. Neilbris said

    Thanks Rod. You’re right of course. Arch Bevis will probably win it on primaries. But it’s the principle of the thing!!! Preferences to the LIBS??!! My pencil just wouldn’t go there!

  170. The Intellectual Bogan said

    Interested American, others have also said this, but I’ll add my two cents.

    There is a HUGE amount of money sloshing about in WA at the moment. Really stupendous quantities of cash. A large proportion of the population are right behind an agenda of tax cuts for the rich and middle class welfare as they do so well out of it. Not to mention a large and prosperous workforce in the mining industry who feel that AWAs have served them well. Then there are our wonderful, stereotypical union leaders (Kevin Reynolds and Joe McDonald), two guys who, if they didn’t exist, the Coalition would have had to invent them.

    And, of course, Sandgropers tend to be quite socially conservative. As an illustration, we have quite ridiculously outdated trading and boozing laws, but a general air of 1950s “morality” is quite pervasive among the mainstream.

    Given that lot, I don’t think a statewide 50:50 TPP would be too bad a result for Labor.

  171. pjk said

    just voted to increase Kate Ellis’ margin in Adelaide. overington is out of control. Possum this site and your insightful analysis has been a calming influence throughout the year – particularly todays comment that it will be over early. we need a big win so we can enjoy the night and get over 11 and half years of this regime. you need to reveal your identify when this all over.

  172. Neilbris said

    Oh good grief. Now Overington has gone and physically attacked Newhouse in Wentworth. She just gets sillier. Quick! Someone write a soap opera about Wentworth!! It practically writes itself!
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22813949-12377,00.html

  173. Stunkrat said

    I’ve made my contribution for the deBartlettisation of Macquarie – seems to be a lot of us about. I did manage to call all the dicks in yellow t-shirts losers, so that was an added bonus.

  174. Paul said

    Possum,

    Now we’re all waiting for Dennis Shanahan to thank you for your outstanding coverage.

    Regards,

    Paul

  175. Mark said

    I’d be surprised if Shamahan doesn’t neck himself soon…

  176. Neilbris said

    I’m thinking Ms Overington’s morale must be very low today for some reason.

  177. Smaug said

    Lurkers on the ABC blogs would probably recognise me. Been lurking here for a few weeks. Spent three hours handing out HTV’s at the local booth. Last time I found people were angry with Latham but this time I’m getting a much better vibe. Still nervous that something will happen and Jackboot will get through, probably just paranoia.

    Turned up at 8am and the line was almost to the gate of the school. People seemed rather serious.

    A lot of people were walking into the booth with a set expression and a simple. “No thanks mate, I know who I’m voting for”. The Lib beside me kept saying “That’s another informal”, personally, I don’t think so.

    What really, really, really P*sses me off about this election is that I’ve spent 11 years waiting to see Mal Brough voted out and the one time where there is a chance they go and redistribute and I find myself in Fisher with Peter Slipper and 10% margin. Bugger.

  178. Citizen David said

    Thanks for a wonderful ride, Possum! You’ve informed, encouraged and sustained many of us through the highs and lows of a looooong campaign.
    You, along with many other blogs, have given a voice and a sense of community to many Labor supporters, frustrated and isolated by the endless propaganda of the MSM.
    Mum and I are taking our two girls to the local Polling centre this arvo. A little lesson for them on Democracy at work as we cast our votes for their future.
    The champers is on ice.
    To you and my fellow bloggers, thanks again.

  179. Nailbiter said

    Thank you, your royal psephiness, for a blog well done. I’d have gone insane without you. May the evening bring you landslide quantities of everything you wish for!!

  180. ruth johnson said

    Now ” i would like to see that”. mark

  181. […] you are really anxious, begin the rest of your day by reading Possum’s soothing words from 7:57 this morning: In 12 hours time Australia will have a new Prime Minister. The question will be the size of the […]

  182. Tassieannie said

    Just taking a break from former Housing Dept area polling booth in Franklin. The Greens are doing amazingly well if what people are taking in the way of how to vote cards.

    Now back to it.

  183. Neilbris said

    Hmmm….more money on Coaition on Sportingbet. ALP unchanged. It’s now $3.25 Coalition($3.50 an hour ago) and $1.33 ALP ($1.30 an hour ago).

  184. media tracker said

    Wish someone had followed up Sol Lebovic when he left Newspoll early this year. Interviewed by media he made the comment that Newspoll wanted him to do something he did not agree with. Wonder what it was!
    O Possum! O Possum! These words I offer up in praise for your work.

  185. Chris said

    Smaug@177
    I was redistributed into Fisher too. Sounds like we were at the same polling booth. I queued the better part of 50 minutes to cast my vote. Lot of unhappy campers in that line.

    At least I’ve played my part in slicing some of the 10% from Peter Slipper’s margin.

  186. Harry 'Snapper' Organs said

    I’ll add my echo of gratitude, Poss. I certainly understand rather more than I ever expected about regression modelling. Very glad to hear you’ll continue to be marsupial in some form.

  187. An Interested American said

    Re: 170 The Intellectual Bogan

    You’re making WA sound eerily like (and I hate to say it)….Texas, except with minerals instead of oil and without bearing a village idiot like the guy who occupies 1600 Pennsylvania Ave in DC. WA can’t be THAT bad can it?

  188. blindoptimist said

    A logical mind is a marvelous thing. Thank you so much for passing on some understanding of the polling and the mysteries of statistics. You have helped quell the disorder in WA!

  189. Andrew said

    Ditto.

    Your Crosby Textor analysis made my jaw drop.

    But John Howard’s head popping up on my computer screen at work was an inappropriate use of taxpayers’ resources.

    This is probably my last chance to get these election theme songs heard:

    Don’t cry for me Alexander
    How can we sleep while the polls are turning
    Maxine, you’re not the only one
    John Howard’s a liar, and that’s the truth
    Me too, me too man, I wanna be a me too man
    Kevin, Kevin07, king of the YouTube site

  190. popper said

    Regarding WA, I lived there for 30+ years before moving to the east to work on a PhD project. People in WA are much like people in the rest of the country, I would say. Australia seems to me to be a very homogeneous nation–even more so than other countries I have visited. It could be that the recent mining and property booms have addled people’s brains just a tad for the time being….

  191. Goodbye Mr Thatcher said

    Interested American – You are probably not too far off the mark. Seems to be the same frontier mentality of self-made man taming the wilderness and bending it to his will(or,rather, the needs of the Chinese economicjuggernaut.)

  192. Dylan in Murray said

    The thought occurred to me this morning that we’re feeling the last of the Howard-era FUD. Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt that the bastard will be gone in the morning!

  193. janey from the block said

    Thanks for your site, Possum, it’s been a great comfort (though between you and poll-bludger, I have gotten no work done at all this week).

    Just penciled my boxes at my local (Sydney, safe Labor) – guy at the booth said the queue was massive this morning but it all died down after lunch.

    And my hairdresser said (when I looked a bit dubious about my new do) “the ’90s are totally coming back”, so that has to be a good sign, right?

    Have a happy evening folks.

  194. Martin said

    Mrs Danvers has a tick over 2 hours left in Kirribilli House – I hope the butler’s hidden the matches…

  195. Mathew Cole said

    191,

    Watch it – there are decent people in WA, people who care about more than their own bank accounts. We just happen to be a minority at the moment.

  196. geoff kricker said

    Poss – loved your site – I dont contribute much but am an avid reader. However Im off now to do my bit in the Bonner/Griffith electorate (my booth is on the border)then have to do scrutineering as well. By the time I get out it should be all over. At least im invited to Kevie’s celebration party at Suncorp Stadium. All the best everyone and GO LABOR!!

  197. JamesK said

    Voted in Melbourne this morning, very strange, normally at the Melbourne Town Hall but today on the 12th and 16th floors of a building two blocks away in Flinders St. The lift lobby was the size of a telephone box, absolutely packed with people struggling to get in and out of the lifts – huge queues down Flinders St, a complete bunfight. Very stupid location for probably the busiest booth in Victoria. One poor bloke could not go up in the lift (no stairs) this could be a plot to disfranchise claustrophobics!

  198. popper said

    195

    I second that, about WA people. And don’t lose perspective: it so happens that 2 in every 5 AUSTRALIANS will vote Liberal today–a f#cking disgrace. Sure, the number is a little higher in the west, but that’s neither here nor there.

  199. John V K said

    Kirribilli Removals hasn’t popped up today, he must have started a big removal last night.

  200. Katrina said

    Understand how you feel, Lomandra.

    Just voted, took great pleasure in putting Grim Reaper Ruddock last. Had a lovely time numbering all 79 Senate boxes…for the groups I had no strong feelings either way for I went across the page and back. For the ones I loathe, I numbered from the bottom of the column up.

  201. KeepingALidOnIt said

    Leptokurtic, leptokurtic, heteroscedastic…
    Oh bugger it.
    The Lid’s off.
    Finally.
    Many thanks to Possum for the sane and reasoned analysis over the past few weeks. I have greatly enjoyed the blog and you really should put up a donate button – even if you give it to charity! Also a bow to the many posters who swing past here – perhaps out of respect for the marsupial, the comments and contributions are much more measaured and thoughtful here than on other sites.
    So now, Lid removed, it’s time to BUBBLE OVER!!! KEVVIE KEVVIE KEVVIE!!

  202. MrMOB said

    MrMOB in Abu Dhabi here. My wife, a true election tragic, has spent many, many hours on your site over the past month or so, and you’ve helped convince her (and me) that we’re finally going to get rid of the rodent. It’s great we could follow this, even though we’re a long way away.

    I’ve mentioned this before, but I’d just to commend the excellent job the AEC has done making arrangements for people here to vote at the Embassy, right down to the cardboard booths and pencils on a string. A great credit to the democratic values of our country. Let’s hope the AEC/Federal Police continue to uphold these values by prosecuting all those Libs involved in the outrageous Lindsay fiasco. Here’s hoping that with the rodent gone, the notion that to win, you try to divide the country in two and take the biggest piece, will become just an unpleasant memory of the Howard years.

  203. Hemingway said

    Interested American,
    A factor in the Western Aust. polls is that a year ago the current Labor Leader overthrew the old Opposition Leader West. Aust. Kim Beazley, a truly nice guy who’s been a very popular figure in that state for 30 years (much like a Gore or Dodd family thing as he’s the son of a former MP).

    It’s the same impact as if a Republican candidate McCain from Arizona loses the primary to Guiliani from New York state, so then Arizona voters would be less inclined to vote Republican.

    Beazley also parallels Gore in that he won the 1998 election popular vote, but lost in number of marginal seats. Evidently, there was no vote stealing, hanging chads, etc. involved!

  204. Mercurius said

    Who are these irresponsible journalists that The Australian keeps on staff? First Milne gets into the biffo, now Overington. And they have the hide to talk about “union thugs”.

    What hypocrites and bullies those scribblers are. Unprofessional. Unethical. Unemployable (by any self-respecting boss).

  205. Doublespeak said

    If anyone wants a laugh, Bolt on his blog has deemed Rudd a conservative so he can claim that the Left will lose the election …

    Given his magical deeming powers, I await his pronouncement that Overington’s slap of Newhouse was just foreplay for some upcoming tickle.

  206. Enemy Combatant said

    Less than two hours to go. Sittin’ round home. Antsy. There is this uncontrollable tingle in my guts. It’s steadily growing in intensity. I remember Uncle Duke:

    “Election Day — especially a presidential election — is always a wild and terrifying time for politics junkies, and I am one of those, too. We look forward to major election days like sex addicts look forward to orgies. We are slaves to it.”
    Hunter S Thompson

  207. typingisnotactivism said

    News Limited – STILL the most appropriate corporation name ever. I want to see a pit match between Overington, Devine, Henderson, Albrechtsen, Shanahan, Milne, Crabb, and Akerman. The winner can claim outright moral superiority. Runner-up can claim the title of “Most Likely to go all Waco on your ass”.

  208. Gecko said

    Thanks Possum, for the analysis and the word ‘fucktardary’. You have kept us all interested, sane and thoroughly entertained.

  209. Truebeliever said

    Possum, thanks so much for your work over the last many months. You’ve made a memorable contribution to many people’s experience of this election, and that is something you should be very proud of. Hopefully post-election your example will encourage some in the mainstream to reflect on how vapid their coverage is and what can be done to improve it. Best wishes for the immediate future, and hope you feel up to it again in three years!

  210. Brumaz said

    Just wanted to say thanks Possum for the wonderful statistics work you have been putting out. I’ve been reading for months but never commented.

    Ive gone and done my democratic duty in the safe liberal WA seat (Moore). Would love to see Mal Washer ousted. I wrote to him a while ago asking what the Coalition is doing about climate change- his response was summed up by: we dont have to do anything because China is building more coal power plants.
    That really p@@@d me off.

    I can imagine the shredders running overtime in a few govt. departments at the moment.

  211. NB said

    Possum, congratulations and much kudos for your excellent work.

  212. Goodbye Mr Thatcher said

    195 – Just to clarify – I was referring to the culture of the mining magnates, not the ordinary West Aussie citizen. My apologies for any unintended offence. Quite happy to defend my point about the forntier mentality of the mining magnates though.

  213. haiku said

    Possum,
    you are a dead set legend. Thanks for your superb work over the past six months. I think I’ve read every single one of your posts! Here’s to those 91 seats.

  214. Rain said

    Katrina @ 200 – *ditto* I’m one of those weirdos who always vote below the line on the Senate paper.

    I get a peculiar sense of satisfaction of putting my most disliked candidates last and working my way up, (There! take that A***hole!) and then dithering and swapping over the middle ones. I usually do a thing on gender too, where its obvious I usually put women ahead of the men candidates in the same column.

  215. CL de Footscray said

    EC – thanks for reminding me of Hunter’s contibution to electoral lore (and folklore). My favourite was, of course, fear and loathing on the campaign trail … a title that i felt could alwys be readily applied to the last four Australian elections. Oh well, all I need now is a Hunter style supply line for this evening …

  216. Matt said

    Note to WA (and re 203):
    Kim Beazley voluntarily gave up the leadership in 2001 after having two shots at getting rid of Howard.
    He and his offsiders then stabbed two subsequent leaders in the backs because he changed his mind. Hardly a man of principle or loyalty.
    He richly deserved it when Rudd toppled him, and would probably have stuffed up 2007 just as much as 98 and 01.

  217. Neilbris said

    Brumaz@210 According to Alan Ramsey 300 recycling bins were delivered to the ministerial wing of parliament house yesterday.
    http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/recycled-rejected-and-right-off-the-rails/2007/11/23/1195753306675.html

  218. Bernard said

    The guys and gals are sending you truckloads of thankyou comments Possum, becuase you are a very fine Possum indeed. How come?

    You have not condemned Mr Howard nor praised Mr Rudd. As a mathematician you have used tools to analyse and patiently explain the various polls. You are unbelievably conscientious, you are humble when a typo is pointed up, and you have attracted both ordinary people like my self along with some very sophisticated minds. You have communicated amazingly with all age groups, with expatriates and with well wishing internationals. You have written in that deeply OZ way – the more serious the matter the more humour you use to underpin the point.

    But there are two other things you have done. Firstly, provided shelter from the frequently mischievous slingshots emanating from some elements of our dreary printed and televised media – that known as the “GG” in particular.

    Secondly, you have inspired us all to take our Democracy seriously. Even to take polls seriously. We all know that outside of the family Democracy is the most precious thing we have. You are always so quotable, but may I select this one, and shake your hand in appreciation:

    “This day is our day, your day, the day where that little piece of paper and its accompanying little pencil make all of us equal.”

  219. omgrufmsyria said

    Poss, keep up the good work champ. Without you we would have been swallowing MSM tripe for the past couple of months. Can’t wait to see the contrite musings of the GG’s Howardites after tonights re-writing of how the Australian people view Howard’s decade-long lurch to the right. They will feel marginalised like the refugees, indigenous Australians, that Rattus so often manipulated for personal political gain. Howard’s End is nigh. Thank god or fate (whatever your persuasion).

  220. GrahamS said

    Just returned from talking to a couple of K07’s at different booths (Fisher) Qld. Not a good feeling here I gotta tell ya. They’re telling me that people are just walking past and not collecting HTV’s from anyone. It’s not busy either. They can’t understand why voters don’t want HTV’s. Spooky. In this electorate the mug shot of the rodent is everywhere along with the local member (and resident fool) Peter Slipper.

  221. Dark Rose said

    Possum,

    Thanks for the outrageously incisive analysis. If you had a tin cup I’d add my sou or two. Alas…I can only offer you my deepest regard.

    I doff my hat at you.

  222. An Interested American said

    Re: 203 Hemingway

    So, if Labor dumped WA’s favorite son Kim Beazley and is paying the price there, then looking at the corresponding swing in Queensland (and the relative sizes and seat growth potential of each state) towards Rudd, Labor plyed their cards well. This is based on my assumption (which with my limited knowledge is probably a dangerous thing to make) that Rudd and the ALP are getting something of a bump from his native son status there.

    However, I also gather that Queensland (and Brisbane in particular) is becoming a bigger and bigger player on the international stage and is developing a much more post-industrial economy that Rudd’s education pitch is aimed squarely at. When combined with the negative effect of Work Choices and high housing costs/anxieties on Coalition fortunes in the Howard battler seats like Bonner has really screwed the Libs. Did I get that right?

  223. Aspirational Aspirationalist said

    I’ve put pencil to paper, and drank my beer afterwards like i said.

    I numbered below the line, like Howard which i find a little strange. Wish i has a box with the name Peter Andren to put a number beside.

    In there a husband & wife were beside me, and he got a bit of a hurry up, so probably above the line for them.

    On the way out, i saw two people walking in and overheard “The greens are a conservative labor…” giving credence to the people making up their minds at the polling booth.

    Yahoo.com.au is running a web poll, for who you will be voting for 29349 votes so far, LNP 36%, Labor 49%, Greens 8%

    And for some high class action in brisbane where employed backpackers are handing out How to Vote Cards saying put Labor last if you care about climate change.
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/071124/2/1524n.html

  224. not.so.very.worried said

    when people don’t want HTV cards, their voting with DEADLY intent and that means the swing is ON!

  225. Hemingway said

    Matt,

    Your opinion of Kim Beazley might be accurate, but that’s not the point I was making about West. Australians feeling less inclined to vote for a Queenslander than a Labor Leader from their own state.

    Hey, I’m delighted that Rudd has run the best Labor campaign I’ve seen since in my first one in ’72. Today on Skynews interview, he was brilliant to the last.

  226. I see that Caroline Overington (aka Journalists from The Australian) was a little testy in Wentworth with George Newhouse today;

    http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/tempers-fray-at-wentworth-polling-booth/2007/11/24/1195753353073.html

  227. Mathew Cole said

    216,

    Note back atcha:

    Kim Beazley resigned to make way for someone that couldn’t be wedged by Howard. Also, have you considered that a) his performance in ’98 and ’01 was great (it was, BTW), and b) that he didn’t expect hte ALP to hand over to that prize idiot Crean. C – He didn’t stab Latham in the back until AFTER Latham destroyed the ALP in 2004. D – He gave way gracefully to Rudd, and then has spent his time in WA, preparing for retirement. So much for the backstabbing.

    Also, have a little compassion for the man – he’s lost his place in history, his father and his brother all within a year.

  228. Hemingway said

    Interested American 222

    You’re spot on, buddy. That’s why I used the Arizona and New York analogy. At worst Rudd will lose two seats in W.A. and pick up 5 or 6 in Queensland. It was definitely a smart move by Labor because they only got 20% of Qld seats in 2004.
    If it’s a landslide, Rudd could pick up 8 to 10 seats in Qld.

  229. John said

    Andrew at 189 What about – Maxine you don’t have to put on the red light, put on the red light, put on the red light. You can have another job.

    Cheers all

  230. Hemingway said

    Interested American 222

    Regarding the second half of your comment, I have a friend in Brisbane whose 22 year old son makes big bucks as some kind of computer boffin, mainly working from his apartment, for a new company which recently won the state’s innovative company of the year award. The young man has a double honours degree from U. of QLD in I.T. and maths theory and has been working for this company part-time for a few years while doing his degree.

  231. An Interested American said

    Re 228 Hemingway

    I’m pretty certain that Rudy can’t carry New York, though. McCain could, however carry Arizona easily, which is probably a marginal state for the GOP next time around under any other circumstance (though less marginal than its neighbors New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada), but I digress…..

  232. Matt said

    227,
    His performance was demonstrably terrible in 98 and 01, by exactly the same measure you used for Latham – he lost (though, oddly enough I don’t remember Beazley getting Howard to perform backflip after backflip – at least Latham made Howard work a little for the 04 election)
    And Beazley twisted the knife while Latham was recovering from his second bout of pancreatitis. Is that what they call compassion where you live?

  233. Roy said

    Just figured out why Newspoll and Galaxy are high on the Coalition.
    Remember all the calls Jackie Kelly was getting on her mobile ……. ?

  234. David Richards said

    Katrina and Rain – I am another reverse numbering ‘the evil ones’ geek. I did modify it this time though – I gave ALP #1 the lower number – but transposed #2 and #3 because of comments by their #2 SA senator.

  235. denise said

    can you explain roy about the jackie thing.

  236. Faith said

    Just back from handing out HTV for the Green’s in Hasluck, WA. There was a huge line from 8am in the morning, which is hopefully a good sign. There was definitely liberal leaning in the voting and the young libs with their anti-labor bunting were out in force, but the town of Thornlie is a lib stonghold. Strong Labor and union presence. No sign of FF, One Nation, Pauline, Dems or the Nats. A nice proportion of people voting Greens. I’d estimate 10% in the senate, 5% house of reps (for some reason people enjoy telling you how they voted, which is sweet).

    Are there any exit polls out? Please, someone must have some idea of how it’s heading by now. I hate the suspense! Thanks for the tip off on caroline overington’s antics in Wentorth. I hope she loses her job after all her dodgy behavior over the last month and drags her mate Malcolm down with her.

    I’m off to cast my vote in the safe Labor seat of Perth. Good luck to everyone! I hope we are in for a night of joyous celebration and dancing in the streets! Thanks for all your hard work Poss.

  237. Mathew Cole said

    232,

    Consider the situations – he had to get 26(!) seats to win in ’98 – effectively, to reverse the ’96 landslide. Never gonna happen – memories of the worst of Keating were too fresh. He still got 18, and the popular vote, and scared the Rodent out of his pants! In 2001, despite the Tampa, the Children Overboard and 9/11, he only lost 3 seats – a Herculean effort by any reasonable measure.

    I note that you haven’t denied what I said about Latham vs Beazley – and surely you can agree that Lathan deserved what was coming to him after the 2004 debacle…

  238. august said

    Hello interested American at 67, I was about to say Boston and Kansas. Had Thanksgiving last year when Rudd was beingmoved to leadership, just North of Boston! Don’t condemn all the South. New Orleans is civilsed and fun!
    Early in Geelong, good feel, many taking only Green and ALP HTV’s. An hour to go beforw the nation emerges!

  239. Kerneels said

    Possum,
    Yet another long-term lurker, fairly new to the Australian scene, in fact the first election where I have managed to keep up to date with the happenings. Your site has been invaluable – the news media had been making me feel a real outsider so it was great to find so many like-minded bloggers!
    Good luck all and thanks for your company!

  240. ruth johnson said

    have you seen latest glen milne exclusive in daily telegraph.

    website dupes young in how to vote. Getup are the dupers .i must thank glen being a 73 yr old and having printed out how to vote for my electorate (and in colour to) you are never too old to learn.
    roll on 6 0’clock

  241. John said

    Any thoughts on the sky news exit poll? not being a pollster, it still appears favourable to Rudd.

  242. Stephen T said

    Kim Beazley is a really good, decent man. If only there were more like him on the planet.

  243. denise said

    where are you possum need you to tell us and john about sky news

  244. Big D said

    I’ve waited eight long years for this day to arrive. If we are all wrong and Howard claws back a win I may have to emigrate, secede, or commit suicide. I’d rather avoid the last option as i’m rather fond of myself.

    Ms Overington may be insane, but she is rather attractive. Tempted to run for Labour to get myself a slap. Rawr.

  245. Burgey said

    Hi ya Poss,

    Thanks again mate for a great site, and roll ont he Rudd Slide!

  246. Rocket said

    Plugged Skynews % of when people made up their minds times the Labor TPP at that time, even giving TPP of 52 for yesterday and 51 for today – comes to Labor TPP 53.8%

  247. The Doctor said

    Possum,
    thanks for the site and your beautiful analysis.
    I think you’re at least Mackerass’ equal (even though he won’t discuss stuff with you because of your current animity).
    If Rudd wins maybe we ought to refer to him as the Pied Piper?

  248. An Interested American said

    Rudd sure comes out smelling like a winner in the Sky News Exit Poll

    http://www2.skynews.com.au/news/article.aspx?id=202770

    Here’s an excerpt from the Sky News Exit Poll:

    The Sky News Seven Exit Poll has revealed 58 per cent of those surveyed think John Howard has been in power for too long and it’s time to give someone else a go, while 42 per cent disagree with that sentiment.

    When asked about Kevin Rudd, 39 per cent said he was too inexperienced to govern, while 61 per cent disagree with that statement.

    The exit poll also shows 69 per cent of voters had already decided who they would vote for a month ago.

  249. nasking said

    SKY NEWS are about to release a “specially commissioned” Exit Poll…I reckon that is “not on”…way too early…I think Fox News did something similar during the Gore/Bush election day before all the polling booths had closed & it might’ve had an effect of motivating more Righties out. Or is my memory off? Is that legal here?

  250. nasking said

    And I’m not talking about the poll that ‘An Interested American’ mentioned…i heard Speers say this EXIT POLL would give an indication as to who would win tonight & they were JUST about to release it.

  251. Rocket said

    Following the prices for the outcome on Betfair – unlike the others they are taking bets until Howard / Rudd concedes defeat – all one way traffic, Labor now 1.24 and falling.

  252. denise said

    big D go back to the beginning and read i have done it so many times it calmes you down how could poss be wrong he has his heart and soul in this

  253. happy chap from Griffith said

    53-47 ALP Exit

  254. nasking said

    2 PP Labor 53, LNP 47 going by that Sky News Exit Poll

  255. happy chap from Griffith said

    Johnnie is gone in Bennelong! 53-47

  256. Matt said

    237,
    I’m afraid not – I utterly disagree. Latham was a solid leader who made two minor mistakes and substantially improved the party’s position after his predecessor. His reputation was unfairly destroyed by Beazley during the 05 leadership challenge, and the conservatives were more than happy to go along with it because it was a stick they could use to beat the Labor party with.
    Beazley was a passable, but not spectacular, opposition leader early on, but he gave up the leadership voluntarily after failing at two elections. His behaviour after that – two vindictive, cowardly campaigns against rival leaders – is unforgivable. It gave the conservatives ammunition and distracted the party with infighting.

  257. Rocket said

    My 53.8 estimate matches well with Skynews now saying 53-47. Betfair – Labor now 1.15, and still falling.

  258. David Richards said

    10 news – loved the bloke telling Rattus Nonveritas to get to the back of the line… Johnnie didn’t look too pleased to be waiting in line with mere mortals

  259. Big D said

    Oh I’m not worried, not really.

    I just read a sky news report with 58-42 exit poll, then the article mysteriously dissapeared and the only similar article had 53-47.

  260. blacklight said

    53-47 in bennelong exit to alp !!!!!!!

  261. happy chap from Griffith said

    58-42 was in Eden-Manaro (sorry re: spelling to happy to type….

  262. blacklight said

    58-42 eden monaro exit

  263. An Interested American said

    What can be extrapolated from Bennelong and that 58-42 result in Eden-Monaro in terms of NSW marginals? I know it’s not much to hang anything on, but…

  264. denise said

    where are you possum

  265. Mathew Cole said

    256,

    Either the Libs or his own actions destroyed Latham’s reputation during hte 2004 campaign. By 2005, he had no credibility and wasn’t going to last until 2007 as leader, no matter what Beazley did.

    About Beazley’s actions 1996-2001 (a long time to lead in the wilderness, I’m sure you’ll agree), I think that we’ll have to agree to disagree. You have your opinion, and I have mine.

  266. Dylan in Murray said

    Link to skynews article here;
    http://www2.skynews.com.au/election07/article.aspx?id=202773

  267. David Richards said

    Poss is playing possum.. or a furry balalaika.

  268. tyro rex said

    77 Steel Golem

    I was at the Ryan/Brisbane split booth in Rosalie this morning and while we have most of the bunting space, the Libs flooded the entrance with 12+ booth workers at most times (Campbell Newman and Salary-Anne Atkinson included) during the morning. Even though they spent most of the time greeting their own it made life very difficult to get to voters particularly as you had to ask if they were Ryan or Brisbane (and sometimes work it out for them when they didn’t know).

    They or someone up around the corner, was also giving out that dodgy “put Bevis last for the sake of the climate” (WTF?) flyer that was reported on the ABC.

    Now it’s time to go back for the last hour and the scrut tonight. Here’s hoping all goes well and that Campbell Newman is the most senior Liberal on a treasury bench in the country.

    T.Rex.

  269. Steve in Japan said

    In Japan the coverage starts at 4pm. So I expect to be p*ssed, umm I mean relaxed and comfortable. So Here’s my list of of things I want to see….

    1. John Howard admitting defeat and also in his own seat.

    2. Alexander Downer explaining what happened.Please just let me see that stupid schoolboy face…

    3. Tony Abbott’s response to any question

    4. Dennis Shanahan’s next headline

    5. Poor old Bob Mcmullen finally getting a chance on ABC TV to look happy.

    QUEENSLANDER!!!!

  270. nasking said

    ahhh, this is what happened:

    http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2000/11/14/politics/main249357.shtml

    (One Call Too Many?
    Relative Who Helped Make Fox’s Decision For Bush Denies Wrongdoing
    NEW YORK, Nov. 14, 2000)

    I reckon the EXIT POLLS shouldn’t be put up until all the booths are closed. Remember how the Corporate Media in America declared Gore the winner of Florida?

  271. ho_hum said

    Possum:

    This site and your efforts are quite amazing. Thank you for informed, readable, concise and unerringly accurate analysis. Exit polls are coming in exactly as you have said.

    Well done, indeed, and thank you for your efforts.

  272. denise said

    i thought the polls closed at 5

  273. Peter K said

    Poss,

    Posted this the other day on the predictions thread, but seems to have gone missing, so with your indulgence I’ll send it through again…

    1. Labor Gains
    NSW: Parramatta, Dobell, Lindsay, Eden-Monaro, Page, Bennelong, Hughes, Macarthur, Greenway.
    Qld: Bonner, Moreton, Blair, Longman, Herbert, Petrie, Bowman, Forde, Leichardt
    Vic: Deakin, McEwen, LaTrobe
    SA: Wakefield, Kingston, Makin, Boothby
    WA: Hasluck, Stirling
    Tas: Bass, Braddon,
    NT: Solomon
    So that makes 90. I think they will get a few more, but in none of the others would I have them as favourites. Possibilities (in approx order of probability) include: Dawson, Gilmore, Robertson, Sturt, Corangamite,Paterson, McMillan, Fisher, Ryan,Cowper,Dickson, Dunkley. All up I’ll go for 95 seats to the ALP.
    Biggest swing: Rankin.
    Other contenders: Forde, Griffith, Oxley, Banks.
    Generally I think seats currently held 0-10% by the ALP will swing the most. The “Howard Battler” seats will also swing hard. Contrary to most I think the swing will be smaller than average in established “doctors wives” areas.
    Smallest Swing: Wentworth
    Other contenders: Lingiari, Stirling, Curtin.
    ALP TPP: 54.5%
    Comment by Peter K — November 23, 2007 @ 2:07 am

  274. Smaug said

    It’s just gone 5pm here in Qld and I’m off to cook dinner. Hopefully by the time I’ve finished and we’re relaxing in front of the TV over a cup of tea it’ll all be done and dusted (or at least obvious that a huge swing is happening)

  275. Hemingway said

    Interested American,
    I hope you are right Giuliani can’t carry New York, but what if Clinton doesn’t get the nomination? He would certainly go better against other candidates.

  276. denise said

    i am to sick in the tummy to get dinner told my husband it is sandwiches tonight

  277. Raena said

    Poss, you rule. I haven’t commented at all before but I’ve been an avid reader. Congratulations on the well deserved reputation for being an awesome commentator.

  278. The Steel Golem said

    If you were a politician and at 4.00pm on election day and there were two neighboring booths one with a constant stream of voters about 50 at anyone time, and a booth with only about 5 voters at anyone time, where would you go?

    Well you would go to the busy booth wouldn’t you! But not if your Michael Johnson the Liberal member in Ryan. I was doing HTV in a tiny booth in The Gap and Michael turns and hangs out for an hour…why???

  279. nasking said

    John Howard – In Memorandum – The Howard Years

    F*CK YEAAAAA!!!!!

    N’…:)

  280. Steve in Japan said

    Oh How sweet it is. No more Howard in bennelong!!!

  281. Brumaz said

    Interested American: Ron Paul would be a better candidate than guiliani

  282. Steve in Japan said

    can anyone believe tony jones’ interview with nicole conles!! what an assehole!!

  283. MadRedVee said

    I want to thank you to Possum, i only found this site at Midnight last night, nervously searching the web for confirmation of a Labor win. Thanks mate I will definitely keep an eye on this site.

  284. bewor said

    Steve in Japan #282, it’s late and no-one will probably read this, but for my own satisfaction I need to say I couldn’t agree more! Okay, she’s not the most articulate person I’ve seen on the box, but he was basically trying to get her to admit that she thought she wasn’t up to the job. Almost like he was trying to get a consolation prize out of a night he otherwise wasn’t enjoying. She’d tried, she’s lost against the trend, that should have been enough pain without Tony sticking the knife in. Asshole is too polite, the guys an out and out pr*ck.

  285. Steve in Japan said

    bewor #284

    Thanks for that. In election, people always get overexcited or depressed but his display was unforgiving and bias against women. Her responses were worthy of her being in Parliament,

    All the best to you.

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