Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

The Fallout – Open Thread

Posted by Possum Comitatus on November 26, 2007

As the title says, also folks, any chance you could give me your feedback on the new format?

Something you might find of interest is The Narrowing. With the 4 pollster average seeming to be the most accurate polling estimate, here’s what it looked like over the campaign:

thenarrowing21.jpg

UPDATE:

For those that wanted it in some perspective:

narrowing31.jpg

153 Responses to “The Fallout – Open Thread”

  1. paul said

    Please bring the possum picture back, otherwise smooth.

    If Howard could have only held on until may!

  2. Ed said

    Dig the new format. Great work covering the campaign, always insightful and non-partisan, which is always a relief in the world of political blogging.

  3. Kirribilli Removals said

    Possum, how could you? It’s a bit like Howard’s graph of the 17% interest rates under Keating!

    You’ve not shown the whole picture with the LNP line somewhere beneath my monitor!

    Put them both up and the ‘narrowing’ gets hard to see with the naked eye! (A bit like the Crosby/Textor pictogram of Howard’s rapport with working women! Seems like a few found a baseball bat on Saturday)

  4. Possum Comitatus said

    Paul, my piccy is still on the side bar.With this template, I can’t actually stick him up the top.

  5. robertbe said

    Yes well.

    There we are. What a triumph for Labor and on the prediction side of things, Poss and Peter (Mumble) Brent prove to be legends. The poll averages on both sites were right on the money as were the two sages personal seat number predictions (both 89 against Anthony’s computers latest forecast on actuals of 88). Brilliant.

    As to the narrowing. Yes a little. About 1 point which both sages suggested at the start I think. Here’s a question : is it an actual narrowing (in the sense of minds changing) or is it measure of folks who knowingly tell the pollsters something different from what they are really thinking?

  6. Persse said

    New look ok on widescreen – lose the piffle plunking bit – it doesn’t fit in with the gravitas.
    So, a hundred and thirty thousand people roughly, obviously bought the scare campaign of the last 2 weeks, unions, unions, unions etc. After all the Liberals were ultimately forced to try and recover their heartland vote, and the only way that could be done was to play up to their shared prejudices. These are the same people, in my view who will be completely alienated by the small ‘l’ liberals lining up for the leadership.

  7. Possum Comitatus said

    That’s a good question Robert, the polling in those wet Liberal safe seats during the campaign compared to the election result seems to suggest that there are a group of voters that tell pollsters one thing, and end up voting the same way they always have. North Sydney comes to mind here – they threatened to vote Labor in 04 and 07, but come E-Day did no such thing.

  8. dany le roux said

    Possum ,
    Again yesterday in Crikey in “Tips and Rumours” the possibility of electoral fraud is brought up.How can your graphic distinguish between fraud and (some of the) narrowing?

  9. Possum Comitatus said

    It can’t dany.

  10. robertbe said

    Exactly Poss,

    I was surprised by the complete failure of the “doctors wives”
    to show up here in Victoria, in places like Higgins and Kooyong they delivered bupkus. I have connections in that demographic in both places who assured me it was on, but, not a sausage on the day. Weird.

  11. Martin B said

    I’m pleased with my tipping entry. No chance of a podium finish, but close. Only picked the equal 19th biggest swing though.

    I’ll be interested to see how the pre-poll votes end up going nationwide. There’s been some talk about the large increase in such votes, but anecdotally I expect that is because demographics that haven’t done much of this before took the opportunity to do so, which means that the overall pre-poll results may not facour the coalition as much as they traditionally have.

  12. Possum Comitatus said

    I just noticed something funny about the graphic – it had 1.3 rather than 1.2. Ooops – can’t count! That looks better.

  13. Big Tofu said

    G’day Possum, I have to admit I still prefer the old format. Maybe I’m just stuck in the past, perhaps we need to be thinking about the future. Nevertheless, I think this format looks a little busy. Still it’s your site so you should format it the way you prefer.

    You’ve taken away the pre election posts, so I can’t back this up but, would this narrowing fit inside the margin of error? Your attestation the narrowing was a myth was so compelling that I find it hard to accept it really happened. Besides I love seeing established assumptions torn down by upstart evidence.

    Any chance you could archive your graphs somewhere? I wouldn’t dream of breaking your copyright, but I’ve tried discussing with others the picture you painted, but I’ve struggled without any reference material. Perhaps you’d consider publishing your work? Say an e-book for a nominal fee? Enough to keep you in tofu until you re-enter the job market?

  14. ViggoP said

    I like the new look of the site. Perhaps to give some perspective to the graph you could also put in a tiny version showing 0 to 100 on the y axis.

    Howard’s legacy. I’m just trying to think what difference he has made to our minds. He has reigned through divisiveness and fear. “If you don’t vote for me the other lot will bring down the sky.” I detest him for it. He tried to make us jump at our own shadows. No, John, there aren’t terrorists round the corner waiting to do us in. No, John, it is not necessary to deprive us of our civil liberties. No, John, keeping the wages down will not gives us job security. I guess most of us can see through this but there must be many people whose minds have been played with for the worse.

  15. Cat said

    Dear god Poss does it have to be grey? This world is grey enough without you falling into the trap as well!! I agree that the sidelining of your portrait is unfortunate. Speaking of which have you consider a new portrait holding either a baseball bat or Dennis Shanahans head? That is if your hands are large enough to hold said items.

  16. Meng said

    Thumbs up on the new look, much cleaner. Previously:
    PB >> PP >= Mumble

    Now
    PP = PB >> Mumble

  17. Peter said

    Is there something off with the template? I’ve noticed the sidebar doesn’t start until the main frame ends… which means I have to scroll down a long way before I start to see the sidebar.

    Thought it might just be the size I have IE at here, but maximised it and remains the same.

    Apart from that, new format doesn’t look too bad. Not overly keen on how the links look in the feeds section, but that’s the only gripe for the moment (apart from the sidebar being so far down, that is).

  18. Possum Comitatus said

    Big Tofu – all the posts are still here, they’ve just been archived. So check the archives over on the side bar, or try the search box on the sidebar as well.

    All that happened with the site is that the whole lot got ported over to a new look, but all the content is still here where it always was – except for a couple of posts I made at Crikey which I’m in the process of re-archiving as their format wasnt compatible with the new three column look.

  19. KeepingALidOnIt said

    Font size is better for these tired eyes.

    I think I am just about to win the jelly bean jar on the 2PP vote…53.9….53.95… 54.0!!!! But my number of seats was way under. I kept the lid on for too long.

    And I am loving the way that a forgotten class (single mums) dug around in their kids’ wardrobes and found an old Gray-Nicholls (who plays baseball in Australia anyway? We all play cricket, Mr Howard).

  20. Cat said

    Ok I know I cannot spell Dennis’ name but I have no intention of going to GG to check it out.

    One of my chief disappointments is also the doctor’s wives love of money over compassion. The swings in Bradfield and Warringah were even smaller than those in Berowra and North Sydney. Even Berowra’s 5% is due largely to demographic changes and the personal disapproval of Ruddock rather than any great reconsideration of the Liberal’s “moral compass” as Andrew Bolt was belatedly urging yesterday. Personally I was thrilled with the turn around on the booth I worked in Hornsby (having been on the receiving end in the past) especially from first time voters so I will hold tight to that as a sign that their is light at the end of the tunnel.

  21. Bruce said

    Like the new format, although the 2 column width on the RHS makes the middle section a bit narrow.

    The 2PP 53.4 could go up or down as they count the last 22% of the vote.

    The final 4 poll average proved a remarkably good prediction (2PP 53.9%, ALP 87 seats), although something very strange happened with the final ACN polling.

    I think I can conclude that the linear model I used 3 weeks out was not appropriate. The evidence is the trend to the Coalition accelerated during the campaign. The ALP seat count may reach my lower predicted range (I predicted 87-97 seats), but I doubt the 2PP will reach my predicted range (53.8% – 55.8%), which was the main purpose of the prediction.

    Others, including Geoff Lambert, need to revisit the assumption of a linear trend. Once you abandon the linear model, predictions made several weeks from the poll will necessarily be more uncertain, which will be reflected in wider MOEs.

    Simon Jackman made some very good predictions using a non-linear model, but his MOEs did not narrow to +/- 1% until just before the poll.

  22. JP said

    On the new look:
    I’m a substance over style person myself, and spent some years as part of my work convincing people to go from websites that looked like the new one to something closer to the old look. Clean, spare, white (think Apple, Google). Because it works.

    At least you have the advantage of brilliant content, which pretty much makes the format irrelevant.

    Specifically:
    (1) All that stuff over on the right is going to cause problems for anyone without large screen resolution, and the two columns of links seem pretty chaotically organised.
    (2) The contact form could (and should) go onto its own page, or people will use it for posts that should go onto the articles themselves.
    (3) The italic tagline on each post is hard to read on my screen, despite a 1280×800 resolution. Maybe use the normal font at one size smaller? Normally I’d suggest putting the tag in dark grey, but with a grey background, that may not work.

    On the numbers:
    A narrowing that leaves the ALP with 88-89 seats is my kind of narrowing.😉

    Still, it seems to have cost the ALP my seat (Cowper) which I wish they’d actually bothered to campaign in with a quarter of the energy of the local National Party member, who seemed to have the sort of energy you can only have after three years of doing two-thirds of sod-all every day.

  23. Possum Comitatus said

    Peter at 17, there’s a contact form at the top of the sidebars, so maybe that’s why it looks like the sidebars start down the page – especially if you have javascript turned off (I think)

  24. Jess said

    Poss – like the revamp…

    Can you elighten us – even with the “narrowing” is this a bigger swing than ’96? How does it rate against other changes of Government??

    Love your work!

  25. Big Tofu said

    Ah! There it is! Sorry, I was still nursing my first cup of tea for the morning, and my brain was running a little slow.

    Still, I stand by my earlier suggestion. You have a knack for untangling complex threads, as well as adding colour to potentially dry themes. I reckon you’d be a hit in the bookshops.

  26. Peter R said

    Poss,

    Like the new format.

    Simon Jackman under “Bragging Rights” has you down as predicting 94 seats to Labor? I thought you were saying 89 (ie the 60+29). Who’s right? Who cares?

    Have you worked out which poll has been the most accurate vis are vis the final result. How did your theorums stack up in the end?

  27. Possum Comitatus said

    Peter R, I was predicting 89 seats just about everywhere – here, PB, Crikey etc, but with a larger TPP of 55.15%. That TPP figure would have delivered 94 seats if uniform, but as I said everywhere, a swing that size wouldn’t deliver the seats it would be expected to, hence 89.

    For some reason, people just keep picking up the 55.15, running with that and ignoring the rest.

    People keep misquoting me everywhere lately- I can’t really be bothered to chase them all up and correct them anymore.

  28. bjohns said

    The new format looks good. Although one thing I tend to have a bit of trouble with is the default WordPress browser icon – its difficult to know which site is which when you have a bunch of wordpress blogs open in tabs.

  29. Burgey said

    Hi Poss,

    New format looks fine to me fwiw.

    Is there a Newspoll tonight? 😉

  30. steve_e said

    Poss

    I am for change generally.

    New format is good on the eye.

    It now comes down to a handfull of postal votes to see who gets the number of seats correct. No Polling process can predict this.

  31. Cat said

    Poss I saved this into my calendar from Crikey (loses its table format but you can follow ok) to check today and is presumably where the 94 is coming from. I remember the 89 simply because I plunked for 88.

    Commentator Actual Prediction Approx. seats using
    probability method Approx. seats using
    cut-off method William Bowe (Poll Bludger) 84 seats ALP Simon Jackman 54% ALP (+/-2%) 88 seats ALP 87 seats ALP Malcolm Mackerras 89 seats ALP Peter Brent (Mumble) 90 seats ALP Possums Pollytics 54.9% ALP 94 seats ALP 94 seats ALP Geoff Lambert 55.5% ALP / 97 Seats ALP

  32. Possum Comitatus said

    Thanks Cat – Big Mal says he doesnt read my stuff because I’m anonymous. Maybe if he did he’d quote it correctly.

    Anyway – in Crikey on Friday, this is what I actually said:

    “I’ve approached the whole election prediction thing in a different way to my learned Crikey Commentariat peers. After a few regressions using averaged Newspoll monthly data, adapting for campaign effects using modelled satisfaction dynamics, and forecasting one step ahead from October’s data – the prediction comes in at an ALP TPP of 55.15% (to two decimal places, just to be a smarty pants!). On a national uniform swing, that would deliver 94 seats to Labor – however, once you start breaking down seats into their demographic components using the census data, many of the seats that look to have the largest swings, don’t seem to have quite enough swing grunt according to the demographic polling to carry them over the line. So it’s ALP with 55.15%, 89 seats for the ALP and around a dozen Coalition seats left hanging with a margin under 2%.”
    ——————–

    I came to 89 back in September over at PB, and nothing happened to change it.

  33. sean said

    Possum

    My only suggestion is to lighten the background colour. The current grey is too dark and not easy on the eye. A tad glum too..

  34. BlueSkyMining said

    Hi Poss,

    The new template looks good. Just a couple of things:

    The pop-up boxes for the menu options in the top RH corner make the menu hard to navigate when the options wrap onto a new line. At least this is the case when using Firefox browser.

    Also, the per-thread feed link has gone missing. It was available just above the “Leave a comment” on the old template.

  35. smssiva said

    Agree with Sean – 33. Lighten the grey a little bit.

  36. B1 said

    No real probs with the new format Poss; just one comment though – I’ve noticed the comments aren’t timestamped anymore.

  37. Possum Comitatus said

    Unfortunately I cant do anything about the grey, I’m looking into the feed issue and the timestamp has indeed disappeared! I’ll look at that as well. Ta

  38. canberra boy said

    Poss – I preferred the old template – clean (white works!) and easy to navigate. Your fix during the morning to remove the contact/comment boxes from the top of the sidebar (thus restoring your portrait to the top) is, however, a major improvement in the new scheme.

    BTW, I took my kid’s red plastic baseball bat to the polling booth on Saturday. Partner and kids thought I was mad and didn’t get it even after two explanations. Just wanted to make it clear that the voters were waiting for the Government with baseball bats.

  39. paul said

    Hooray I just found the little guy.

    Maybe the Libs will be best off getting Abbott in the hot seat, people will at least be able to laugh.

  40. Stephen D said

    I definitely like the new look. The grey is much easier on my eyes as a background than stark white.

    Well done and thanks for your fantastic work.

  41. Possum Comitatus said

    BluSky – I have no idea where that went, but I’ve added a comments feed on the sidebar if that makes it easier?

  42. Jess said

    So is this a bigger swing than 96? anyone have any comparisons

  43. George said

    Poss, site kiijs very nice. Just one little thing – the first graph at the top overlaps into the right side bar.

    Cheers
    George

  44. George said

    “kiijs” should be “looks” – I think my keyboard is having a heart-attack!

  45. George said

    Also, you used to have a time stamp wit each post – I thought that was a good idea.

  46. Possum Comitatus said

    Jess, the swing in 1996 was 5.07%

    The current swing at the moment is 6.02%, nearly 1 percent higher (although it might change by a little bit by the end of the count)

  47. Kate Ellis for PM said

    I like the new format of your site Poss- very cool. Looking back at the last few weeks, many of the analyses on your site (including some very thoughtful comments by the contributers) were very accurate. The discussions here and on PB about uneven swing were very illuminating. My only disappointment about this election is Christopher Pyne retaining his seat!

  48. happy chap from Griffith said

    Heya Poss. Dig the new format. My only suggestion would be to simplify away from three shades of grey if possible- it’s a bit visually complex. I saw your response to Sean that you couldn’t change the colour, but maybe you could just drop one of the grey tones.

  49. Jess said

    Thanks Poss – I am hopping it climbs even higher!

    Is it the biggest swing for Labor in terms of winning government?

  50. Roscoe of Queens Park said

    Great format. I like the archives. Please think about publishing this – maybe as an internet document.
    Your site has been a staple diet of mine for the last 4 months. I would check your site first thing when I woke up and woulk continue pretty much all day with refreshes each 10 to 15 mins. You put perspective. Now the election is over and I feel a sense of relief. A black cloud has lifted from Australia. So as the days go by I guess I will refer to your site less and less. So I will say thank you and good bye now my friend. But I know that that you will be there.
    Good luck and good fortune in your life.

  51. happy chap from Griffith said

    Kate Ellis for PM @ 47,

    I’ll second that! Don’t you think Pyne is like a Downer mini-me? Same hair, voice, home town, knack at coming across in a condescending fashion etc etc.

  52. GS said

    I have a relative staying with me who did a postal for Peter Dutton’s QLD seat (Dawson?) – thinking that it’d be all done and dusted prior to receipt. Obviously not – and may get the ALP over the line! (Unless its sorted already.) Wondering about the latest re the Senate (ACT seats) too.

  53. George said

    Jess and others, you might find this interesting. Shows 2PP going back to 1949.

    http://australianpolitics.com/elections/two-party/2-party-preferred.shtml

  54. GS said

    Oh I now see the AEC site has all the latest. Dickson and the ACT Senate seats still in play!

  55. Cat said

    Agree with Canberra Boy at 38. Big tick for the improvements on the sidebar since this morning.

  56. Cat said

    Shiitttee – now Vaile is jumping. Well perhaps to do the cleanout early. I hope at least for an effective but not obstructionist opposition. Mind you the cynic in me kind of craves the Mad Monk to laugh at daily.

  57. Roscoe of Queens Park said

    Also please include the time the comments are sent to you as per the old web site

  58. Andrew A said

    Hi Possum, like the three columns, not so keen on the various gradient fills, they’re a bit distracting. Clean white was much easier on the eye. The narrowing looks rather dramatic until you look at the vertical scale…

  59. Crikey Whitey said

    Nice summer coat, Poss.

    Did you have date and time against the posts before?

    It is useful, if I may be so bold.

  60. Ron Brown said

    Possum

    Clearly 2 late ACN polls missed ‘the narrowing’…any reason ?

    Clearly Newspoll overstated ‘the narrowing’ by going from 54-46 to 52-48 in only 4 days. Have you any onfo re degree their “weighting of regional areas” had if any on their late “narrowing’ Newspoll ??

  61. Bring Back CL's blog said

    the new format is outside the margin of error.

    The t statistic is 5.75.

    it has been R squared

  62. Steve K said

    Vaile quits. Nice one Mark. How many more rats are there on board? In this picture for the GG website Vaile indicates just how small he feels after Saturday’s debacle

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/

  63. josh lyman said

    I preferred the plain white background – it’s actually easier to read the text in high-res (when each pixel is quite small).

    So the Narrowing happened after all – and despite a shocking campaign for the Coalition in which almost everything that could go wrong, did. Why didn’t it blow out further??? Says to me that scare campaigns really do work after all, and TV ads matter more than anything you do during the day (unless your name is Nicole Cornes).

    Pity about Tucker in the ACT, although it looks to me to be still in play (Greens do better in below the line votes) but everyone seems to be calling it already.

    Nice to see Fran Bailey is now in trouble. And such a shame about Broughie, couldn’t happen to a nicer bloke. Definitely wins the concession speech award too.

  64. Ron Brown said

    as long as the old possum comes with the new format

    hope this new format does not signal there has been
    a coup in ‘possum land’ ??

  65. steve_e said

    Fear of the AWB issue haunts the leadership – expect Downer to follow Costello and Vaile.

    There must be some documents in a file cabinet somewhere.

    Perhaps Mike Kelly knows where to look as he raised the whole issue of AWB kickbacks.

  66. Aspirational Aspirationalist said

    Hockey Rules himself out of leadership challenge.
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22822394-601,00.html

    Interesting times. its a bit like those intersted take one step forwards, and all minus one take a step backwards.

  67. Puff said

    I preferred the clean look of the old template

    This one is too “poor teenager’s sci-fi” for my tastes. The last one, with its serif faces and greater whitespace had a dignified, more ‘broadsheet’ feel about it, which gave a better sense of the standard of writing that it contained.

    Having never used a blog theme I am unsure what you can and can’t alter. But FWIW (assuming that you aren’t prepared to just go back to the old one!) what I would like to see addressed is:

    – grey on grey is too drab, and a bit hard to read. Could you even just change the background colour of the div “container” to white, to lessen the darkening effect of the png overlay?
    – main navigation panel can’t cope with your multiword headlines, with odd rollover effects and some difficulty selecting correct item. Might using non-breaking spaces provide a partial solution?
    – the -3px letterspacing on your headline seems far too tight. Try -1px perhaps?
    – the righthand two columns would probably benefit from a little more linespacing.

    Having said all that, when the content is this good I can turn a blind eye to the wrapping.

  68. Aspirational Aspirationalist said

    And poss,

    There is a minor bug with this style.
    Under Leave a comment, you can see “e-Maile-Mail (required – will not be published)”.

  69. Possum Comitatus said

    There’s some bits I like about this format, but other bits – like the drag greyness of it all (reminds me of winter in Melbourne!) is a bit much. I might make a cope of the site and start playing about with what else is on offer until I find something.

    So this format will stay temporarily.Apologies to those that find it a bit of a pain – but it shouldn’t be around for long.

  70. David Richards said

    nice new fur poss🙂

  71. steve_e said

    Downer is now heading to the back bench (if not further away from the front bench).

    Mr Downer indicated he is likely to serve out his term as the member for the Adelaide hills electorate of Mayo.

    3 pm 26/11/2007. Seems to be a similar comment to Costello’s.

  72. Steve K said

    Poss, I can no longer see the time of day that a post has been created. This means I no longer have a ‘bookmark’ to assist me in quickly getting to the new posts since my last visit. The post number itself is of course a bookmark but I’m no going to remember this when I’ve been logged off for a few hours.

  73. Doug said

    ACT Senate result is agonisingly close – Humphries is sitting 0.74% above the quota. Swing against him at this stage at over 3% and a swing to the Greens of 5.5%. Great community campaign.

  74. seajay said

    still 7 close seats according to AEC website (very good, regular counting updates and %s).
    Libs could easily win all 7 which would make my punt of 83 seats for Labor spot on.
    No Bennalong update since 4.30 yesterday, must be one due soon.
    Not sure about the deep grey, sort of naval vessel camouflage, can you lighten it up a tad?

  75. smssiva said

    The following atricle by Richard Flanagan in The Guardian is worth a read

    A decade of John Howard has left a country of timidity, fear and shame

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2217016,00.html

  76. Aspirational Aspirationalist said

    I like this theme/style.

  77. Possum Comitatus said

    Are the comments easier to follow?

  78. ViggoP said

    This layout is truly excellent

  79. Harmless Cud Chewer said

    Biggest issue I have with the format is that the center column now truncates graphics.. so I can’t see the right of the graphs!

    And there’s still stuff like urls that print over the right margin. Is this a firefox bug?

    I think you need to go back to 2 columns or else throw more into the drop down menus. The center column is too tight.

    The grey is a bit harsh but what really nags is the borders. Pollbludger is one of the more readable sites and you can see who they’ve treated it. Mind you just a hint of colour is nice🙂

  80. paul said

    This is a great layout, is this the one?

  81. Harmless Cud Chewer said

    P.S. Abbot for Liberal Leader. That should keep them unelectable for a few more decades🙂

  82. Possum Comitatus said

    Cud Chewer, I can adapt for the graph problem in the future by making them linkable into larger graphs.

    Can anyone tell by what it looks like on a normal sized screen – I’m on a widescreen laptop so it’s hard to tell how it all looks for those on more of a square screen?

  83. ViggoP said

    No probs on my 19″ screen. 1024 x 768.

  84. Bushfire Bill said

    Well, at least I got the 2PP correct, right down to the dot: 53.4 exactomundo

    But who will remember Bushfire Bill’s quiet prediction next to the grandeur of Possum?

    As for seats, I said 83… that one looks to be a ways out, unless when they open those postal votes…

    I used Excel graphics with a 5-term polynomial based on the last two year’s worth of Newspoll 2PPs to draw the trend line. No previous knowledge of statistics required, which is just as well in my case.

  85. Andrew A said

    Love it🙂 Looks a *little* cramped on a 12″ laptop screen (not widescreen) but perfectly readable and the boxed comments make it very clear.

    Just needs a snazzy banner at the top and you’re all set.

    Disappointed that sporting bet aren’t paying out until members are sworn in, but the $100 on Maxine is looking like the best punt in a long time😀

  86. stevet said

    The new format is quite spiffy. And Poss, what did I say about Macarthur?

  87. The Finnigans said

    For Maxine “the Magnificent” McKew – the Hero of Election 2007. She chose Everest and she F***** climbed it:

    http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=pvvSQjqPDNQ

  88. Rex said

    I reckon Possum you had the most memorable title on any pre-election blog: “The dog ate my narrowing.” I kept think of it and smiling as the results came in…. Cheers

  89. bilko said

    has anyone noticed that the world did not end on sunday except fot the Rodent and le Smirk

  90. Peter R said

    Poss,

    The streakiness in the banner makes me think I’m p*ssed, plain tired or both🙂

    Other than that I like it

  91. Possum Comitatus said

    How’s that Peter, instant sobriety?:mrgreen:

    That streakiness had a little bit too much of the “dodgy nightclub” thing about it.

  92. bilko said

    Nelson has thrown his hat into the ring now

  93. canberra boy said

    Poss, perhaps it’s because I’m right-handed, but I’d suggest that with the Andreas09 template it would be better to put the ‘contact’ ‘recent comments’ ‘recent posts’ column down the right-hand side as the more important information, with the RSS feeds down the left.

  94. canberra boy said

    Also, I notice that WordPress is giving commenter’s names a capital letter whether they want it or not. I type in canberra boy and WordPress decides I am Canberra Boy. It didn’t do this previously, AFAICR.

  95. Possum Comitatus said

    CB,

    That capitalisation is a bit weird, but seems to be built into the template.

    Thanks for the tip on the sidebars, I think you’re right – might swap them over.

  96. The Doctor said

    Possum,
    have you heard of Mackerras’s comments on Andrew Leigh proposition that the betting markets are a better predictor than polling (ABC CBR 666 Morning).
    He thinks that the betting market on Benelong in particular disproves it.

  97. Enemy Combatant said

    File under: Piffle Plinking
    Index under: Jargon
    Subject: Emergence of the jnd

    “For those that wanted it(the narrowing) in some perspective:”

    (Explanatory Graph; lateral likeness of a broad-exhaust aerodrome wind-sock in strong gale)

    Too kind, Poss. But even over a six week spread it was difficult to see. A pseudo-narrowing, really. Guess if psychologists can have their jnd’s(just noticable difference) then it would seem only fair that psephs claim jnn(just noticable narrowing).

  98. Big Tofu said

    Possum, love this layout. Very easy on the eyes.

  99. Anne said

    Mark Vaile has quit too🙂

  100. BV said

    Poss, any offers of work to you by the major parties or their consultants/advisers???

    They’d be mad not to, after your work and insight on this campaign. It would be our loss but you deserve to be paid for your undoubted abilities.

  101. Crikey Whitey said

    Ooh!

    Thrown opussum’s jacket on as well, since I last looked.

    ‘Opossums..The general color of the fur from neck to rump is grayish white’.

    Very fetching, though my eyes and laptop could use the larger font of old.

  102. Aspirational Aspirationalist said

    Crikey Whitey,

    You should be able to increase the size of the font by pressing “CTRL” and “+” (Decrease with “CTRL” and “-“) or “CTRL” mousewheel.

  103. Andos the Great said

    Hey Possum,

    Cheers and kudos for your hard work. It’s been a fantastic election.

    Also, I’d like you to know that the new format looks great. Love the blue, love the column set-up, love the comments format, love the XHTML instructions.

    Keep up the good work, and I’ll keep reading what you’ve got to say.

  104. KeepingALidOnIt said

    Agreed, Crikey Whitey – I really like the (new, new) layout but the font is too small in the posts & comments.

  105. Crikey Whitey said

    Thanks, Aspirational Aspirationalist.

    That works a treat.

    I accidentally also pressed ctr + =, and everything changed to bold.

    Even more agreeable.

  106. josh lyman said

    wow, you leave the office and the format has changed again! I like this one better too. At the micro level, can you edit the spacing on the RSS feed entries? They are hard to separate!

    See you’ve raised the standards in psephology and look how we treat you🙂

  107. Crikey Whitey said

    And.

    Tried the same thing on William’s site.

    Same good.

    (Pity I didn’t know that 50,000 posts ago).

  108. Possum Comitatus said

    :mrgreen:

    Josh – cheeky bastards the lot of you!

    Can’t do the spacing thing I’m afraid, don’t have enough control for that.

  109. Crikey Whitey said

    ‘but you deserve to be paid’

    Brave New World, BV at 100.

    Bet you wouldn’t have dared that idea before Saturday night.

  110. Big Tofu said

    Possum, you just got a big up on Australia Talks, radio national. Your predictions were “extraordinarily accurate” and you kept the MSM under scrutiny.

    Top job.

  111. Crikey Whitey said

    Possum.

    Wendy Bacon just gave you a wrap, for your brilliant analysis and skills.

    Australia Talks.

  112. S said

    This layout is a lot better than the grey one!

  113. happy chap from Griffith said

    yeah Poss this revision really improves it. Perfect.

  114. S said

    The capitalizing of the commenters names is caused by this statement in the css file:

    ol.commentlist li cite {
    text-transform: capitalize;
    }
    in this style sheet: https://s-ssl.wordpress.com/wp-content/themes/pub/andreas09/style.css

    It is fixable, but it’ll take a little bit of mucking around.

  115. Crikey Whitey said

    Possum can change his colours with the greatest of ease.

    But Tony Abbott’s spots still look the same to me.

  116. Enemy Combatant said

    UTS(Sydney) Journalism Professor Wendy Bacon just mentioned on Australia Talks on Radio National: “A Brisbane blogger called Possum Comitatus” who(now paraphrasing) deconstructed the MSM election spin during the long campaign and “called” the result well ahead of Nov. 24. by means of his lucid analysis of the polls. She went on to mention, by way of comparison, the shameless shills on the then GG (now og), without naming individual stenographers.
    Wendy is a streetfighter from way back. She is not noted for careless praise.

  117. Enemy Combatant said

    yer quick, Whitey!

  118. Enemy Combatant said

    Et tu, Tofu!

  119. Steve K said

    Poss, I’m now on my home laptop and it looks terrific. I can also see the post times which is a big help. My work PC must have some strange filters and setting. With this post election upgrade I am really hopef

  120. Steve K said

    Poss, I’m now on my home laptop and it looks terrific. I can also see the post times which is a big help. My work PC must have some strange filters and setting. With this post election upgrade I am really hopeful that you intend to keep the show open for an extended period.

  121. Pi said

    like the new layout.

  122. Crikey Whitey said

    smssiva at 75.

    A worthwhile read, from Richard Flanagan. Thank you.

    A little disturbing, though his summation as regards Kevin.

    On the other hand, his books are themed darkly.

  123. Poss,

    The new layout is great, cleaner, concise, and always cutting.

    Just the way I like it !

    I’m still basking in the glow of Saturday night !

    I’m wondering who the hell will take the poisoned chalice of the Leader of the Opposition… fascinating stuff!!

    John

  124. steve_e said

    Poss on my normal screen 15″ the alternating comment colours are easier to read, date time stamp is back on.

    The proposed graphic links would help.

    Overall improvement all day.

  125. Tassieannie said

    Great-looking site. Great-looking comments.

  126. Gezza said

    I like the format – it’s easier on the eye. The lifting of the great weight of the Coalition burden has already done wonders for my productivity levels, not to mention my general frame of mind.

  127. dave said

    Thanks Poss. New layout great.🙂

    BTW have people noticed how quickly the MSM has turned on the libs.

    Sky laying the boot in – by lightweight John Mangos. Also Speers this arvo with Kroger. Reilly on 7 has changed tunes too.

    I now say thank God for work choices – the gift that keeps on giving and giving and giving. The full extent of the woes of the enemy is truly starting to sink in – even for them.

    We live in Grand times.🙂

  128. Kate Ellis for PM said

    Much improved site Poss, although the text appears small on my MacBook default settings. :-}

    Keatings comments on prospective Liberal leaders were funny!

  129. Jenny said

    And Glen Milne weeping with rage and frustration at the destruction of his party by his erstwhile hero http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22819422-7583,00.html

    Tee hee.

  130. whynot said

    Well, I was wrong in my prediction of 100 seats. I had picked up on the +9.79 to the ALP here in Petrie, and it must have clouded my judgement. Interesting opinion piece in today’s Courier Mail titled “Silent assassins strike out”. You can read the rest here;

    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22820413-5013650,00.html

    It does sum up the mood somewhat.

  131. Mark said

    Yep, still looks like a baseball bat to me.

  132. Amaranthus said

    Guess there will be no “coffee bean polls” next time around…

  133. pjw said

    Like very much the new format Possum. Very clean and crisp, scans well.Thank you very very much for all your efforts before and during the election mate. Has made the whole thing so much better, Cheers mate.

  134. James said

    Nice new format. The alternating colours are good to make the posts easy to read.

    Off the topic question, in your possum picture, what is the Story in the newspaper that he’s holding? (I can’t make it out, but wondering if it was just a random paper, or if it had some meaning)

  135. James said

    Amaranthus, I think they started the Coffee bean poll pretty early. Not sure if it was meant to poll their voting intention or who they think will win (regardless of who they want to win).

    If it was the latter, it would just echo the accepted wisdom, which for quite some time has been that Howard would come from behind and win.

  136. Puff said

    New, new site a big improvement on the new site. Subtle-coloured greys a lot nicer than the all-neutral-grey-gradients spaceship theme of yore. I notice you have made a dramatic u-turn with the letterspacing on the site title, but I’ll more than forgive you if you keep writing such interesting, incisive posts.

  137. Bernard said

    Finnigans
    thry are all the guid
    Thankyoui for the link to YouTube and the tribute to Maxine Mckew. If ever a woman of our great country – woman of the frontier – eptitomised the feminine beauty and strength of Australia it is this person Maxine Mckew.

    It is her who will define the feminine of future Australia. Intellect, grace and truth. No wonder cunning, deviousness, legalism and ego succumbed in Bennelong.

    If Kevin Rudd wishes to be great and to remain true in Power, he need only look into the unfliching eyes of Julia, Maxine and Teresa and know that they are the guidance that he must never evade or avoid.

    Her electoral name Bennelong means that Maxine will be able to bring the women of the great Aboriginal Peoples with her into a new era. It is extraordinary and almost transcendental that she offered her electorate only and simply additional child care.

    May i salute you too Maxine?

  138. Michael said

    I much prefer this format

  139. Potaroo said

    I think Costello is going to sit on the back bench carping at the leaders and generally being a Cassandra. He will be on the phone every day to Glen Milne whiteanting anyone who takes the job in the hope that they will turn to him and say Pete you must come and save us. The man’s ego is insufferable. Any incoming opposition leader should have one proviso. I will only take the job if Costello leaves parliament.
    PS after listening to Joe Hocley on ABC radio today I fired off the following.
    Just caught your act on ABC radio about how you have suddenly discovered your children and have decided to cruise on the back bench taking the tax payers shilling. What a bloody hide. Mate if you are so concerned about them resign and let someone prepared to work for this country have a go. Your role is to rebuild the Liberal Party and make it electable and to hold the new Governmen tto account not sit on your ample arse on the back bench. If you not prepared to do heavy lifting resign. Funny you didn’t mention any of this before the election. “If we lose I will be bludging on the back bench”. Maybe a few more people would have voted against you. And spare us the bloody tears about how your staff are worried about finding jobs.
    That’s not what you said last week. Workers have never had it so good plenty of jobs out there.
    God you are a disgrace.

  140. Cat said

    Much improved layout this morning Poss. Still not loving the grey but otherwise much better.

  141. Stephen D said

    I very much like the alternating background colour for comments. It makes it very much easier to read.

    Excellent work.

  142. Stephen T said

    The death of Burney is another sad event along with Matty. Combett demonstrated the kind of dedication and commitment that will make him a great asset to the party. Greg deserves our thanks for his dogged support for all those sufferers treated so badly by Hardy’s, Payout at the last moment? Sheesh! This is the meanness that has spread its vale over right wing politics. Poss is right the leadership is a poisoned chalice and the person that takes it on is probably signing their political death warrant. Turnbull hasn’t the balls to survive (shades of Downer), Abbot is a lost cause (dirt sticks after all) and Nelson comes across as a humorless try hard. I still think that the Liberal lable is almost terminally damaged. Symbolism is everything. When Labor lost they did have the semblance of an opposition however this is a complete shambles.

  143. Kina said

    I was just wondering that sometime in the coming months we will be able to see the true level of the Liberal rusted on vote in the polls – now that the Howard loyalty factor and incumbancy factor is gone and, the party no longer seen as a viable alternative [until they sort themselves out and get established].

    Might be useful to know the level of their election 37% that is non-negotiable. That way we can know just how much is really up for grabs.

  144. Ron Brown said

    Possum Labor’s @PP has dropped from 53.41% Sat night to now 53.22%

    Could it drop below 53% 2PP as remaining 20% uncounted is postals & prepolls ?

  145. Crikey Whitey said

    Ron Brown at 144.

    Gasp!

    Could Labor yet narrow to lose the election?

  146. Foxy said

    Poss, I thought I’d have a browse back in the archives at your first postings and was most impressed at your first regression modelling in May predicting ALP TPP 53.7% & 86 seats!
    A lot of people are trying to claim the most accurate call from only one week or less before the election but this 6 month prediction is in a class of its own.Apart from the numbers,what is really impressive is the consistency of your analysis over the 6 month period and this deserves broadcasting far and wide.

  147. Martin B said

    I retract my earlier concession. I’m now looking a strong chance at a podium finish in the tipping🙂

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