Election Prediction Competition – and the winner is….
Posted by Possum Comitatus on January 1, 2008
(Insert drum roll)
Since the 8 folks that foretold the magical 83 seats for Labor apparently used up all their Nostrodamus juice in the process, with none picking the biggest swinging seats for each side – Seajay was the electoral oracle that got their prediction in first and takes out the title of Psephseer 2007.
It was a close call with Seajay beating KeepingALidOnIt by a mere 33 minutes. The 8 electoral evocators and psephological diviners were, in chronological order:
ALP 83, Coalition 65, Ind 2.
Biggest swing; Grey
Biggest upset; North Sydney ALP win.
Best Senate result; Libs lose ACT.
Best moment; Live telecast of the Sherriff evicting Hyacinth (kicking and screaming: “But it’s mine, all mine I tell you”) from Kirribilli House on Monday the 16th.
November 12, 2007 at 10:49 am
“1. Would that be “Make your election tips”?
Comment by Andos the Great – November 12, 2007 @ 9:39 am”
And note another spelling glitch Poss, it’s “Official”, not “Offical” as well. :))
I am, as usual, being restrained, so I say a swing of 6.7%, being a 2PP of 54%, which should mean 87 seats on a uniform swing. But I think the number of actual seats won by the ALP will be lower – let’s say around 82 or 83 because the swing won’t be uniform – it will be big in seats that the ALP can’t win (doctor’s wives) or have already won (the return of Victorian true believers to the fold).
Gulp. I hate committing to a figure, even cautious, prudent ones like this.
Harmless Cud Chewer :
November 12, 2007 at 2:21 pm
Before I make my prediction I should say that my biggest concern all along has not been whether the campaign will change the final vote much, but whether there isn’t something systemically wrong with the polls. It doesn’t take much at all to create a global error of 1 or 2%. So bear that in mind when trusting a trend line of 55.
The other thing I predict is that Howard’s ongoing wedge politics and bad micro management is going to create ‘lumps’, and that this might show up in some seats. I’ll note a couple of these below.
So, depending on whose poll you trust, the trend line seems to be around 54.5. Take a point off that for systemic effects and I get 53.5. Plug that into Antony’s calculator and you get 83 for the ALP.
I predict Bennelong will go. We’ve had several polls showing about 52/48 and these polls aren’t fine grained enough to show the anger amongst the fairly tight knit Chinese community. Second to that is the university students (they also network well).
I predict Wentworth to go. In this case the two things worth noticing is the anger amongst the gay community and the reaction of wet liberals to Howard’s wedge politics on immigrants and climate change.
People have to be *really* pissed off to not only change their vote, but also change the votes of their social peers.
I’m also predicting Paterson. Not just because its my seat, but because of the micro management issues. The RAAF here is a huge employer and they are fuming at Brendan. There’s also the service economy (workchoices) and we’ve also seen a huge increase in mortgages. Last time we saw wall to wall posters with Howard’s face on them “trust me”. He’s strangely absent this time.
I’m also predicting Higgins is going to end up as a less than 2% marginal (with an outside chance of falling). Same goes for North Sydney. In both cases there will be a negative vote for the minister.
And a huge personal swing against Downer, oddly enough.
Places like Indi, Hume, Groom and so on may actually see an improvement of the Liberal vote. My theory is that less networked, more rural areas are going to cling to the conservatives. Since swings are ultimately about the flow of ideas between people and about who you network with.
I agree with Possum’s analysis regarding general socioeconomic issues. This is why I’m predicting Robertson for Labor.
However, when the dust has settled and people are left scratching their heads about weird swings, they’re going to be pointing at issues that have to do with anger over bad micro management and wedge politics.
It’s interesting to note that as the campaign was called, a bunch of voters jumped from the minors back to the Liberals. These were disaffected Liberal voters. And I bet these guys are getting a bit more disillusioned about now. The Widening?
Now, while I’ve predicted 83 and I find it hard to believe anything over 90, purely on what can be measured, in my heart of hearts, I hope that on polling day the people decide to deal such a humiliation that no one will ever try to repeat what Howard has done.
November 12, 2007 at 9:26 pm
Based on your good work possum my crack at this is:
TPP: 53.5% to Labor giving
Wish to see, On the most prominent billboards in each capital city:
To the owner, editors and reporters of the GG,
Shananana (insert here any other name/s applicable)
You were wrong!!!!!!!
Next time report fact not opinion.
Long Live the Possum
November 12, 2007 at 10:27 pm
Labor with a uniform swing of 53.5%.
Biggest Swing: Kingston
Smallest Swing: Stirling
I think Howard will lose Bennelong. I wasn’t thinking that a few weeks ago, but the polls are simply too large to ignore.
November 22, 2007 at 10:06 pm
I’m predicting a somewhat conservative:
Biggest swing to Labor: Grey, S.A
Biggest swing to the Libs: Cowan W.A
I’m from Perth and let me tell you, there are a lot of rich, self interested (read liberal voting) people living in W.A. We’re going to have a busy time in Hasluck, Swan, Cowan and Stirling keeping Labor on top.
I would love to see the Liberals out in the wilderness for the next 6 years after a savage annihilation on Saturday, but I’m a bit nervous. I have spent half my life under Howard and if Australians are as apathetic this year as the have been since 1998, then the election may not be as spectacular as I hope. Yet I still hope!
Union thug :
November 22, 2007 at 11:40 pm
I’m in another comp at work where I’ve gone with 81 seats to ALP. Reading the other entries on this page, my guess appears conservative. I’ll go with 83 to ALP here. 2 will remain with Independents, 65 Libs.
Robertson will have the biggest swing. The YR@W campaign is going great guns up there. They’re all over it and the ALP candidates beautifal face is everywhere with the Liberal MP virtually nowhere to be seen. It’s people power in action and a fantastic vibe. It made me want to move up there.
November 23, 2007 at 3:37 am
I’ll be slightly more optimistic than I was a few weeks ago and say TPP of 54-46 in Labor’s favour, primary support of 46% for Labor and 42% for the Coalition and a seat count of 83 for Labor, 65 for Coalition and 2 Independents.
The 23 seats that Labor will win off the Coalition are:
NSW (7) = Bennelong (by a very narrow margin), Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Lindsay, Macquarie – held by a Liberal MP although it is a Labor seat on paper (or Parramatta – which is on paper a Liberal seat), Page, Robertson
Vic (3) = Corangamite, Deakin, La Trobe
Qld (6) = Blair, Bonner, Bowman, Herbert, Moreton, Petrie
WA (1) = Hasluck
SA (3) = Kingston, Makin, Wakefield,
Tas (2) = Bass, Braddon
NT (1) = Solomon
So congrats to Seajay and the 7 other tea-leaf readers extraordinaire, your electoral prophecy will be kept in the Hall of Fame list accessed at the top of the page.
If Seajay could drop me an email, I’ll post him/her off a copy of John Kudelka’s book, 101 Uses for a John Howard.
On another note – I hope we all had a relaxing, safe and enjoyable festive season.