Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

Aquaman Keeps Powder Dry

Posted by Possum Comitatus on January 15, 2008

This was me in Crikey today:

crikey1.jpg

We constantly hear about the Nelson Opposition requiring only a 1.4% swing thereabouts to regain government. While this is unarguably true in a uniform sense, the simplicity of such a statement belies the actual danger lurking below the quaint headline.

If we break the pendulum down to compare the swings required for each major party to win the first 30 seats from their opponents (instead of lining up all the seats as we might usually do), we end up with a rough graphical measure of the vulnerability of each party to any swings against them at the next Federal election. It gives us a much better “for and against” measure of how the parties stack up in terms of their current electoral position and vulnerability.

2007election1.jpg

The way to read the graphic is fairly straight forward: pick a swing on the left, trace it across to either the blue line for the Coalition or the red line for the ALP, trace it down and that is how many seats such a uniform swing would deliver at the next election for that Party. For example, a swing of around 3% to the Coalition would deliver them a gain of 12 seats, a swing of around 3% to the ALP would gain them 17 seats.

As we can see, while the Coalition may only require a 1.4% swing to regain government, they find themselves in a far more vulnerable position than the ALP in terms of the damage that a given swing against them would inflict. If we assume that the ALP could, at most, achieve only a small swing to them at the next election as a result of their pre-existing majority, they can gain eight seats from a swing of just under 1%, or gain five seats by virtually standing still, requiring a uniform swing of merely one fifth of one percent to them.

Another issue worth keeping in ones thought orbit here is the consolidation of the margins in ALP held seats, with the ALP enjoying 37 seats with a margin of greater than 10%, while the Coalition has been pared back to having only 15 seats of similar ilk; quite an achievement considering that the Coalition sat on 45 such seats after the 2004 election.

The greatest sin an Opposition leader can commit is taking their party backwards. The animosity for Mark Latham stands testament to how that all comes out in the wash, and for whichever courageous individual takes the reigns of the Coalition beast into the next election, they surely must be risking their entire career on a big gamble.

Yet the big unknown with all this navel gazing is the impending electoral redistribution. There are 49 seats on margins of less than 5%, 22 seats on margins of less than 2%. A favourable redistribution for the Coalition might see them notionally pick up half a dozen seats (although the power of a fresh government and New Leadership in pork barrelling might make that a bit of a moot point). On the other hand though, a favourable redistribution for the ALP giving them half a dozen notional gains would be an electoral stake through the heart for any Coalition leader.

Malcolm Turnbull can apparently count, although usually with numbers involving far more zeros than the arithmetic of the party room or the majorities involved on the pendulum. If he’s as smart as he thinks he is, Aquaman won’t even consider a tilt at the leadership until the electoral redistribution is finalised. Taking the reigns before then risks getting shafted by the redistribution and being forced to carry the can for taking his party backwards at the next election, regardless of whether it would actually be his fault or simple AEC arithmetic.

The redistribution is something for political tragics and knife sharpeners everywhere to jot down in their diary. Surely it will be the date the games begin.

66 Responses to “Aquaman Keeps Powder Dry”

  1. Syd Webb said

    Possum wrote:
    If he’s as smart as he thinks he is, Aquaman won’t even consider a tilt at the leadership until the electoral redistribution is finalised.

    Give me a break – a measure of a good leader is how he (and it’s usually a he) responds to the current situation by adapting their performance to make up for it. We all witnessed how good Kevin Rudd’s ALP was in that regard – they effectively needed 52% of the 2PP vote just to break even and still romped home. After the electoral redistribution there’ll be 148 seats in play. Some seats will be tough to win but the Coalition doesn’t need to win them all, only 75.

    Obligatory Cricket Reference: Say! How ’bout that Sachin Tendulkar?

  2. Cat said

    Good to get back to the real topic (imagine if the polls predicted the Australian captaincy). Thanks for the clarification Poss as I have been wondering what the raw swing meant.

  3. Ron said

    Logic says ANY swing against the ALP could be expected to be at least 1.5%

    As this is enough to cost the ALP the 12 seats & Government , ALP supporters do not need any perceived anti Labor sentiment.

    One has to hope the redistribution is lucky because whoever is lucky with the redistribution alone may win in 2010

  4. dany le roux said

    How would Labor’s electoral fortunes next time be affected if the 15% unenfranchised both enrolled and voted correctly?

    I think those who correctly predicted the seat numbers here for the Federal election fluked it because the polling did not take into account the factors that Mumble is today again talking about.I think they did it the same way the Deaf,Dumb and Blind Kid did on his pinball machine.
    The Liberals are probably even now thinking that there should be at least thirteen candidates in every seat at the next election regardless of its marginal status.
    Last year the accepted wisdom on this site was that the Liberal scare tactics in the last week of the campaign were responsible for the less than predicted swing to Labor.I know some polls got it right but I think they made allowances for what they know always applies ie informals and the unenrolled .

  5. Jenny said

    Hi, Possum

    Nice analysis, though most people don’t seem to have noticed. (They’re probably off at the beach.)

    You set me thinking about the redistribution, and where the seats might go. NSW is obviously for the chop, and everyone assumes that the spare seats will go to Qld and/or WA. But what about Victoria and SA?

    I had a look at the electorate sizes. Vic has four seats over the 100,000 mark (Gorton, Holt, Lalor and McEwen) and SA has two (Barker and Port Adelaide), whereas NSW only has one (Wentworth) and none of the other states have any. The average numbers of voters per electorate are a lot larger in SA and Vic as well. I wonder whether the AEC’s population projections are out of whack?

  6. David Richards said

    Ron.. from whence does the logic of a 1.5% automatic swing away from ALP come?

    Logic would dictate that barring either spectacular failure or stupefying success by the ALP, the swing is likely to be 2% the other way, given that the Libs lose the incumbency factor, the pork barreling factor, the union scare factor, the wall to wall Labor factor, and the interest rate factor. Exactly what ammunition does that leave the Libs? What positive agenda can they put forward, as to win against a new government, you need to provide positives as there are no negatives to exploit?

    I think that the Libs as things stand have less chance at the next election than England have of winning the soccer World Cup.

  7. John VK said

    This term will be decided on achievement.

    The achievement of Labor to leave activism without responsibility behind and competency in government.

    Australia is Labor wall to wall, because state governments have learnt that they better not start running off on tangents and be discussing things that matter.

    The quo is really finely balanced and I really cant see the AEC letting things swing so far off balance.

    Governments lose elections, Labor is not well placed with experience in real governemnt at the Federal level. They cannot afford the state revolts that the coalition could afford for awhile.

    There are all kinds of myths, the narrowing and honeymoon periods and a normal two term history.

    But the way things are you would rather be Labor than Liberal at this point in time of the great pendulum of Australian Politics.

    The myth was Labor was gone for two terms after latham. Myth busted.

  8. The Keegan said

    Poss, remind me, how did Turnbull get Aquaman as a nickname, I recall it was v funny, but the ‘punchline’ escapes me.

  9. mate said

    The Keegan Says:
    January 16, 2008 at 12:45 pm
    Poss, remind me, how did Turnbull get Aquaman as a nickname, I recall it was v funny, but the ‘punchline’ escapes me.

    see comment 37/38 here

  10. mate said

    hmm, buggered that up somehow… it’s in the November Archive, “Oh yes, where all sorry now”

  11. Possum Comitatus said

    Keegan, Turnbull’s a little bit green, a little bit blue and a little bit wet. (with thanks to Dave Richards on the “Oh Yes, we’re all sorry now” thread.

  12. Lukas said

    Swings are never uniform. For any given level of national (or statewide) swing there will be nearly half the seats with bigger swings and nearly half with smaller swings.

    If the national swing averages zero than roughly half the seats will swing Labor and half will swing Coalition.

    As Possum’s chart shows, because there are many more marginal Coalition seats than marginal Labor seats, a zero national swing would very likely lead to more Coalition seats falling to Labor than vice versa.

    Ignoring that for a second, with over two dozen new Labor members, most of the marginal Labor seats will increase their margin to Labor, as new members establish their credibility in the electorate and the porkbarrel effect favours Labor rather than the Coalition. (Just as happened in Howard’s favour in 1998, when the Coalition consolidated its vote in its own marginals so much that it was able to hang onto office with only 49% of the 2PP.)

    So overall, even a small swing to the Coalition will probably see a net gain in Labor’s majority. I think it would actually require quite a sizable national swing to the Coalition – well over the 1.4% notionally required – for the Coalition to get back in. I’d personally be surprised if the Coalition could get back into government with less than 50% of the 2PP.

  13. Ron said

    David Richards you obviously can not understand.

    John VK is right. There are challenges for the ALP not the least being a further US housing AND share market collapse & domestic inflationary pressures affecting interest rates….more than enough for a swing against the ALP

    Lucky Howard came in in 1996 when all of these trends were going the reverse way

    Furthermore a bad redistribution for the ALP may notionally make both partys close to even

  14. barney said

    Poss,

    That link at # 9 is not working.

  15. Ron said

    Turnbull is a closet Downer right down to the black stockings

    The difference is Dolly is oblivious to his ‘toff’ credentials
    whereas Turn on the Bull shades his ‘toff’ credentials

    Newspoll from July 2009 will instruct Turn on the Bull what to do

  16. mate said

    barney @ 14

    Yeah, thats my bad, not sure what I did wrong but anyway you can find the thread it was meant to link to “Oh Yes, we’re all sorry now” in the November archive

  17. Possum Comitatus said

    That link should work now.

  18. EconoMan said

    What this analysis chooses to (?) ignore is that a 10-seat gain for Labor is in the realm of ‘so what’, whereas a 10-seat gain for the Coalition is ‘everything’.

    Not completely ‘so what’, some might argue, but for what really matters…

  19. Possum Comitatus said

    I agree Eco – I can’t keep track of the number of times I’ve read opinion pieces lately going on about how the Coalition needs only a small swing of around 1.5% to regain government. The raw numbers are true, but the political reality is probably a lot different with the likelihood of a good chunk of fat being built into those ALP ultra marginals.The joys of incumbency on the one hand (or the one demographic), and a recognition that the world wont really end without the Coalition being in government on the other.

    Over the next few years, political events will come and go – but the Libs genuine chance for making Rudd a one term government is a profoundly favourable electoral redistribution.

    Turnbull would be a goose to make a leadership play before the electoral redistribution was finalised. If it was beneficial for the Coalition then maybe the risk would be worth taking (and I agree with you, it would have to be pretty big), if it just moves seats around the pendulum with little change, or worse for the Libs, moves them notionally backwards on the pendulum – then Turnbull would be a dill to make a play since he’d end up copping the blame for sending the party backwards regardless of whether it was his fault or not.

    He would, in effect, take his leadership ambitions out the back and shoot them on the basis of being blamed for a loss than everyone else outside the Coalition would likely go “so what” about.

  20. Ron said

    Its naive to believe Turn on the Bull will not make a play if the redistrubtion is ‘neutral’.If the Polls show a 3% swing needed in 2009 he will not do a ‘Costello’ & regret not making a play.

    As for playing down the 1.45 swing needed by the libs , the enjoys of encumbancy argument is a delusion argument.

    Governments lose Government when the hip pocket is hurt.The argument Howard lost against the trend because the economy was strong is false.Workchoices & rate rise hurt the hip pocket.

    If rates & costs significantly rise , a 1.4% to 2.5% swing is quite possible , enough for ALP to lose depending where the swing % lands

  21. Andos the Great said

    Can you show us your arithmetic for how you got to “a 1.4% to 2.5% swing is quite possible”, Ron?

  22. Rates Analyst said

    But only if the people blame the ALP for the rate rises.

    That’s why Swan is already starting with the “Present from the previous government was high inflation”. That could take a decade to live down becuase it is, unarguably, true.

  23. Mathew Cole said

    Given that one party (Libs) requires just 49% of the TPP vote to win government, while the other (ALP) requires 51%, it is hard to see how this redistribution can defensibly help the Liberal Party. Given further that by the time of the redistribution the AEC will no longer be stacked with Lib ideologues-with-an-agenda, it is hard to see why the AEC will, in fact, reward the Opposition in the redistribution. They are more likely to go backwards than forwards.

  24. Ron said

    Andos the Great , if you believe the ALP can NOT suffer a small swing of 1.4% to 2.5% in 2010 then you know something Swan & Tanner don’t.

    If rates significantly rise especially in 2009/2010 then blaming the Libs will be harder & a swing against the ALP will occur ,
    based on history

  25. dany le roux said

    Mathew Cole,

    At last someone agrees with me that there are “Lib ideologues-with-an-agenda” in the AEC.

    If you even hint that this is the case at LP you get jumped on because an “inquiry” of some sort at some stage painted them all as pure as the driven.

    It is outrageous that 15% of the voting population in a system of compulsory voting does not or cannot vote and I bet most of these 15% would favour a Labor TPP vote.

  26. Ron said

    Dany le roux , i also agree with you on both counts

    Numerous electoral law changes are needed to fix this including 1/ prohibiting Partys from posting out or receiving back postal applications
    2/ reverting the ‘provisional voter’ clasification back to pre Howard days ie. where if you changed home within an electorate & didn’t tell the AEC you were an ordinary voter still ,not a provisional voter
    3/ changing the last date for new enrolments back to pre Howard days ie. to approx. 14 days after the Election was called
    4/ optional preferential to prevent invalidation of votes where there’s alot of candidates
    5/ tightening the criteria for qualification as a postal voter…seems the Libs have block sampled retirement villages etc

    etc

  27. smokey said

    Unless the Rudd gov self destructs like the Howard one just did, the Lib’s haven’t a hope in hell 2010.

    Getting Howard and cohorts out was like slowly pulling out an infected tooth. Now that the pain is over, voters will come to see how much better it is to be in good political health. Finally we have a gov with a brain looking intelligently to the future.

    My prediction is that the Libs will go backwards, whatever the redistribution brings. WorkChoices will still be in the process of being dismantled, and nobody is going to vote for the party that bought it in in the first place.

    Yes I know that hasn’t been the trend Federally last decades, but neither has the PM losing his seat been.

  28. Andos the Great said

    Ron at 24: I didn’t say anything about what I believe.

    I was simply asking if you could show us how you arrived at the figure of between 1.4 to 2.5% swing away, as it seems like a very precise figure. Was there some form of calculation involved, based on electoral data and previous voting trends for example?

    Or did you simply pluck this idea, and your numbers, from the ether?

  29. Possum Comitatus said

    Smokey, first term governments going on to get thumping majorities in their first incumbent election has become pretty fashionable over the last decade, with the seats often coming from places no one ever expected at the time.

  30. stevet said

    Possum,

    You are right in your comment above about first term governments. And it was never more true then in this case. I am in no doubt that there was a significant section of the electorate out there that were scared shitless by the ‘union thug’ ads and the ‘wall to wall Labor government’ propaganda that the Tories spouted before the last election. In normal circumstances it may have worked, but this wasn’t 2001 or 2004 and Kevin Rudd is not Kim Beazley or Mark Latham.

    The economy is in for tough times, but I do believe that the Tories will take most of the blame and I think Labor will do at least a half decent job of keeping things under control. At the next election, the nervous nellies of 2007 will realise that Labor is no threat to their house, their job, the economy, or their children’s future. And that will be a twenty seat gain for Labor.

  31. Peter said

    I agree with Possum’s comment at #29. Unless the government does something very unpopular with the electorate, they have a good chance of increasing their majority.

    I think Sevet, above, is spot on (except a 20 seat gain seems to be rather excessive).

  32. stevet said

    Peter,

    I know that 20 seats may sound a bit far-fetched, but I base this on how many seats are sitting on fairly thin margins on the Coalition side of the pendulum and the history of first term incumbent Labor Governments at state level, particularly Qld and NSW. One could also include SA in this scenario.

    Labor went backwards in WA this time, but I think that trend will be reversed next time around. That of course won’t produce 20 seats as there are only 15 seats in the whole of the state, but it will be a good starting point.

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