Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

Newspoll Tuesday – March edition

Posted by Possum Comitatus on March 3, 2008

Newspoll Tuesday is upon us and its a record breaking 63/37 TPP result to the ALP.

The Nightwatchman has stormed to a new low of 7% as preferred PM, a movement greater than the MoE (for the benefit of Dennis) and Rudd is becoming more popular than a vacant safe seat at Sussex Street with a preferred PM of 73%.

If this trend continues, by mid May it’s possible that the only person in the country that would prefer the Nightwatchman to be PM will be Dennis himself (taking account of the margin of error). But after the caning young Brendan is going to cop over the next few weeks, even that might be debatable.

Anyone know some obscure statistic that 7% of the population experiences? – In this bloggyverse, all I can give you is a cite for your brilliance both here and another place for your troubles and a listing in the Hall Of Fame for such a monumental contribution to the advancement of marginally humorous politics.

But I suppose that’s still more than poor old Brendan is getting at the moment!:mrgreen:

UPDATE:

The Newspoll results over at The Oz are here:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-4-mar.jpg

 

48 Responses to “Newspoll Tuesday – March edition”

  1. paul said

    Careful Possum, injudicious use of that “storming” word will get you Shanahan smacks.

  2. classified said

    hubris!…bullbutter..hubris!

  3. Nexus 6 said

    Doctor B’s in a world of hurt when the honeymoon’s over.

  4. classified said

    Somebody stole the PPM

    I suggest the Nightwatchman

  5. Aspirational Aspirationalist said

    Havent looked close enough in the past to notice, but maybe your last takedown (and you’ve got 5 of the 6 listed poss) has lead them to say The maximum margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points

  6. Greeensborough Growler said

    Kirribilli Removals on Poll Bludger points out that:

    When the Leader of the Opposition crosses the cash rate, history is being made!

    LOL.

  7. Peter said

    Isn’t the number of left-handed people something like 1 in 7 on average? The proportion of females in the population is slightly more than half, so…

    On average, you’ll know slightly more left-handed females than you will people who prefer Brendan Nelson as Prime Minister.

    (Anyone know if Julie Bishop is left-handed? Or Julia Gillard, for that matter?🙂 )

  8. newt said

    GLBT’s make up about 11% of the population, don’t they? It must drive the libs nuts to know that homosexual men alone form a voting bloc larger than the group that wants Nelson to be PM.

  9. Aspirational Aspirationalist said

    Not exactly 7%, but
    6.9% of men could have seen a nightwatchman when they attended a outdoor cricket match in 2005-2006.

    Also not exactly 7%, but
    In 2005, 6% of divorces involved separation within the first year of marriage

  10. Rod said

    The more the libs attack Rudd the higher the ratings, this follows more dredging on the Burke emails and Swans misspent youth.

    Maybe the libs and their supporters should try a month of singing Rudds’ praises.

  11. Of margins of errors and poll wars (and Dr 7%)

    I wrote recently about Dennis Shanahan’s attempt to revive the poll wars. Possum both answers back, and gives Dennis some incidental love by taking notice of the Newspoll.
    The Nightwatchman has stormed to a new low of 7% as preferred PM, a moveme…

  12. Gippslander said

    Welcome back to the land of the Undead, PC.. gee, it must be fun being castigated by big Denny… like being whipped with a feather Boa, till you turn to Blanc Mange.

    On a technical point, the MOE quoted is for a random sample. Stratification might lead to a higher MOE, if not carefully applied.

  13. steve said

    Listen with your eyes,Possum! I think that’s about as obscure as you can get.Or maybe not.

    http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/10/24/1066631605516.html

    http://humanresources.about.com/od/interpersonalcommunicatio1/a/nonverbal_com.htm

  14. Nabakov said

    Has Possum Comitatus ever thought about commissioning a poll about poll commentators? And asking to Dennis to chip in? His response alone would justify the whole exercise.

  15. Meng Tan said

    Wow, Dennis is actually arguing that the other Liberal leadership contenders are too self-interested to replace Nelson. So the team’s strategy is to continue to bleed electorally? Great strategy guys!

  16. Enemy Combatant said

    We should be so lucky to deserve Shillsterism this good! Today “The Stenographer” aka Dead Loss Denny allows us to soar with him like buzzards from Death Valley CA—- to the fickle skies above the labyrinths of Crete.

    [Nelson’s Hopes Lie in Icarus Rudd
    (Always hits us with his best shot straight up)

    This is a chalice so poisoned nobody wants to put it to their lips, and potential Liberal leadership aspirants realise it is in their interest to leave Nelson to continue to draw this malice.
    (Shill Shanahan confirms Nightwatchman’s status)
    Rudd and the Labor Government are simply so dominant it is hard to imagine any Liberal leader doing much better.
    (N.B. Denny Boy’s command of realpolitik)
    It’s true, for the first time, Nelson’s disapproval rating has overtaken voter satisfaction with him as Leader of the Opposition and he has entered the death valley of negative satisfaction.
    (Geez , wish I could write like that)
    But the Coalition’s primary support is just 31 per cent, down from 42 per cent at the last election, which it lost.
    (Go Denny go, gotta love him when he gets on a roll)
    If the party vote were higher, some might be tempted to argue that the leader’s single-digit humiliation was holding back the party vote.
    (sorely tempted, indeed)
    But at these party levels, it’s clear the voters don’t like what the Liberals stood for and are lapping up Labor’s alternative.
    (The bloke’s a dead-set fucken genius, oh, and aren’t we such good little puppies?)
    What’s the point of taking over a sinking ship? What Nelson is trying to do now is prepare the Coalition for the future – he’s jettisoning Howard government policies and absorbing Rudd broadsides.
    (Tory rope-a-dope, right Denny?)
    There’s little else he, or anyone else, can do at this stage to lift the Liberals’ fortunes.
    (Careful Denny’s brilliance dosn’t take you by stealth, his aftershocks can be just as devastating as his initial ka-boom)
    It’s a terribly negative outlook, but it’s the only one Nelson and the Liberals have right now].
    (Really got a taste for it hasn’t he? I can feel a Pulitzer coming on here! Nothing’s too good for this guy. Thirty years strong and yet untroubled by recognition from “world’s best” peer reviewers. It’s a travesty!)

  17. Kymbos said

    You know, Possum, Dennis only still exists in this world because you keep him alive in our minds. If you ignored him he would just *poof!* disappear…

  18. Smile said

    I assume Turnbull/Hockey’s strategy to attempt victory in 2010 is to front-end all the badness of a Government recently turned opposition (policy debris and uncertainty, turfing out the old-guard, party ‘reform’ and shooting some sacred cows), let Nelson take the heat then swoop in to announce a fresh readiness to rule 18 months prior to the election…

  19. David Richards said

    Captain Jerk and the crew of the Starship Liberprise are boldly going where no opposition leader has gone before.. seeking out new lows in opinion polls.

  20. David Richards said

    .. Or.. is he that other great 60’s TV character, Admiral Nelson in Voyage To The Bottom Of The Sea? The Seaview is exploring the Marianas Trench.

  21. Cat said

    Briefly the rate set by the Reserve Bank but by this afternoon even the RBA cash rate should out rate him.

    At 7% it really will not belong till they have to move the decimal point.

  22. Cat said

    Briefly the rate set by the Reserve Bank but by this afternoon even the RBA cash rate should out rate him.

    At 7% it really will not belong till they have to move the decimal point.

  23. Cat said

    Kymbos are you implying that Shaman is a fairy who will disappear if we say we do not believe in him? How cruel because as book says the only way to bring him back would be to clap really hard – and what are the odds of Shaman getting enough applause?

  24. 2 tanners said

    I just loved your timing, Possum. 21 February – Dennis does dumbass. 3 March – the Possum strikes back. 4 February – Dennis is stabbed in the back by ‘his own’ pollster.

    More seriously, i think he has an underlying point correct THIS time. The Libs are going to want to see nearly all of the hemlock drained from the chalice (Socrates Nelson has a nice ring to it!) before Aquaman steps up to his manifest destiny.

    Or just maybe the prize has been promised to Costello🙂

  25. Cat said

    Smile according to Spears (sp?) on NewsRadio this morning Rudd is now the example to follow – Aquaman will only need 12 months to turn it around.

    Now back to the real world.

  26. […] Possum has another dig at Shanahan. […]

  27. Zafar said

    It might be nice if Rudd called a double dissolution and went back to the electorate with a platform of fewer tax cuts and more infrastructure spending. Interest rate rises make it a pragmatic (and responsible) approach, but Nelson’s approval ratings should make that course of action just about irresistable.

  28. steve_e said

    Rugby has a 14 man team. 7% support suggests that 1 of the 14 would be in favour of the “current” Liberal Leader.

    While this is an interesting exercise it means the other 13 do not.

    The only question is when is his role coming to an end. If his role is to end is not open to debate. Hence the “current” descriptor.

    On a trend basis it was 9% (twice) and is now 7%. Where to from here. Any takers for 5%?

  29. MsLaurie said

    Surely there are diminishing returns? I vote for 6%!

  30. josh lyman said

    Maybe Nelson likes “Limbo” as his nickname? Never occurred to us to ask him directly!

    Oh, and Steve_e: Rugby teams tend to play better when all *15* players are on the park…

  31. newt said

    Josh: I think the current opposition would play around about the same regardless of how many players they fielded🙂

  32. David Richards said

    Do the Nelson Poll Limbo
    How low can he go?
    Do the Nelson Poll Limbo
    How low can he go go go go?
    (apologies to G. Macainsh)

    How about a new comp? Who can pick the bottom of the Nightwatchman’s market before he’s delisted?

  33. Peter said

    DR @ 32 – As I’ve always considered 3 to be my lucky number, I’ll start things off by claiming 3% will be the floor🙂

  34. Dave55 said

    Does Newspoll do the whole ‘sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution like Morgan does? If so, Nelson only has to lose about 28 ‘votes’ in the Poll to qualify for a # (actually it may be less than that given Morgan’s larger sample size).

    I’m beginning to wonder whether his nickname shouldn’t be ‘Patsy’.

  35. graham said

    I think poor Dennis is keeping an eye on your site Poss. I just blogged him using the nightwatchman name and he didn’t post it. Methinks he’s keeping tabs on us.

    All I said was: “If Nelson is now considered the nightwatchman for the libs, I guess Tony ‘people skills’ Abbott would be 12th man” or something like that and he didn’t post it. Oh yeah, I think I also told him to shove his head up his arse.

  36. […] I love the web, take a look at what the wonderful Possum Comitatus has to say about today’s polls. Also, I love the nickname ‘The Nightwatchman’ for […]

  37. Cat said

    I do wonder if the drop from 9% to 7% was due to the loss of W.A. miners and mining magnates when they totally abandoned A.W.A.s on the day the last Newspoll was released. What bedrock policy plank can they drop today to bring it down to 5%?

  38. fozzy said

    I think he’s just me-too’ing Rudd – Nelson’s just become Brendan07.

  39. scaper... said

    Cat…middle class welfare???

  40. Diogenes said

    Possum

    Seven per cent of the Australian population has diabetes. This number is obviously increasing, possibly more rapidly than Nelson’s PPM rating will.

    http://www.healthinsite.gov.au/topics/Diabetes_Statistics

  41. Cat said

    Scaper they could nt do that because at this rate most of them will needing it pretty soon..🙂

  42. scaper... said

    Cat…Touche!

  43. Cat said

    Just clearing out my favourites folder and this Xmas card from Kudelka could now be seen as prophetic (flick/click the light switch for full “effect”):
    http://www.101usesforajohnhoward.com/

  44. The Keegan said

    7% of the pop think that using Icarus analogies is clever …

  45. Cat said

    Coalition member quote of the day: Best not to peak too early.

  46. Dave55 said

    One for the Nightwatchman

    http://www.despair.com/sacrifice.html

    and one for Dennis

    http://www.despair.com/stup24x30pri.html

    Actually selecting those ones was quite difficult – there are just so Demotivators that were appropriate for them both.

  47. The Doctor said

    How long before his PPM rating is measured ppm!

  48. […] only assume that Julie is playing to the Conservative base with talk like this. Well I guess that loyal 37% of the electorate that is standing by the party in the tough times deserves a bit of rhetorical […]

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