Posted by Possum Comitatus on March 13, 2008
Ever wondered what it’d be like to ride the polls?
I present to you the ALP two party preferred vote from January 2000 through to the 2007 election – in a whole new perspective.
A couple of folks have wondered how it was done. I have a weighted poll average of the major pollsters going back to 2000 as the template – which I’ve built for an eventual PossumTrack polling series to use as my polling benchmark in the future. Each straight run on the coaster represents a year, and the coaster is pretty accurate to the actual polling graphs when the coaster is under it’s own momentum, so in those places where the coaster is really shunting along, as well as those drop offs from a polling peak, it reflects the actual shape of the polling changes which occurred .
The only time that the coaster get’s a little out of whack with the shape of the polling is when the ALP launches into one of their big polling surges. As a result of the coaster running out of momentum on those big steep hills, it has to get pulled up by a chain – but the chain is limited to an incline less steep than the data reality – so the run up the big slow hills are necessarily longer than they actually were in the data, simply to get the coaster to the right height that represents polling results like 58%.