Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

A Brief History of Morgan

Posted by Possum Comitatus on April 4, 2008

Fridays Morgan Poll, a phone poll of 2,231 respondents taken over the weekends of March 26/27 and April 2/3 has just been released showing the ALP leading on primaries 51/34 for a TPP lead of 60.5/39.5

UPDATE: I better add that the minimum MoE on this beast is about 2%.

Getting back to our old habit of charting these little buggers now that we are starting to get enough of them to warrant it, this is what all Morgan polls taken since the last election look like.

morgallpollsapril.jpg

If we split them up into their respective Face-To-Face and Phone Poll segments, we get:

morgpollftfapril.jpg morganpollsphapril.jpg

That’s all pretty stable business.

Over at the Roy Morgan site, these polls always come released with a little “Gary Says” wisdom – it’s cute and always worth a squiz, but this time I think they made a typo.

Gary Morgan says:

Although the Coalition continues to trail the ALP by more than 20% on a two-party preferred basis, the result of this Morgan Poll is its best result since late January.”

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s current overseas journeys hasn’t helped Labor support, particularly as the media has been focused on the current economic and financial problems in Australia and the US.”

Liberal leader Brendan Nelson and his colleagues will be hoping they can continue this momentum in the lead up to the release of Labor’s first Federal Budget in more than a decade.

I think that last bit should have read “Liberal Leader in waiting Malcolm Turnbull and his aligned colleagues will be hoping they can continue this momentum in the lead up to the release of Labor’s first Federal Budget in more than a decade.”

Call me strange, but I reckon the Coalition having their polling wandering around between 35 and 40% TPP probably isn’t the kind of momentum they’d be after at the moment.

11 Responses to “A Brief History of Morgan”

  1. PASOK said

    If I didn’t know any better, I’d say that “Gary Says” was written by Dennis Shanahan.

  2. Norfik said

    It’s fascinating to watch Nelson try and fight his little two front war. He’s had a few ridiculous cracks at the PM lately for chatting with a couple of “celebrities”, and some of his surrogates have been dropping the PM’s wife’s money into conversation for no apparent reason. It’s so laughable that it doesn’t really make much sense – since when did the Liberals win elections by bagging successful buinesspeople? But maybe it does make sense, if these lines are actually directed more at Liberal MPs who might be thinking of backing a certain celebrity millionaire than they are at voters.

  3. paul said

    If you extrapolate the trend in the ALP vote from March 08 to April 08, Dennis may very well be right and the Coalition will be ahead come christmas!

    i’m sre some equally silly comments will be made by a “respected” journo.

  4. Possum,

    You speak of the “Liberal party”. To whom do you refer to? I have never head of this “Party” you now speak of. Please let me know more. When and where will the “Liberal Party” be held and what is the dress code? Clown suit perhaps?

    I look forward to you enlightening me further.

    Kind regards,

    Julian

  5. Greeensborough Growler said

    Possum, you are strange! There, feel better.

    The problem with all the polls at the moment is their credibility. For most of last year they showed Labor support in the high 50s and low 60s. This, of course, crashed spectacularly to the 53-47 result that occurred in November.

    While there is probably a halo effect as the new Government buyers parade their shiny new passionate coloured toy, there has to be some scepticism about the quantum of the poll results.

    To me, this six months up to the Budget is a sort of twilight zombi world which will evaporate. Real politics will resume once there are definable winners and losers in the Government’s decison making plus extraneous events that will be blamed on the Government.

    That said, Rudd has seemed to make every post a winner.

  6. David Richards said

    The Nightwatchman has survived a few overs, a few snicks have fallen between fielders, the odd LBW appeal has been knocked back, he’s managed to get a streaky edge or two away for a couple of runs, thus kindling feint hopes that there is life in the corpse and when the new captain finally comes to the crease, the middle and late order will wag. They still need 600 runs to avoid the follow on, or to bat out the next 3 days.

    Aquaman is probably praying for rain (or attempting to make it without the help of public funds).

  7. Fagin said

    I for one cannot see Turnbull gathering enough support to become Liberal Party leader, at least until the Libs have lost the next election.

    Turnbull will lead the Libs over the dead bodies of Minchin, Abbott, Costello, Bishop, J, and the rest of the all-powerful hard-core right-wing of the party.

    The hard-core right-wingers in the Liberal Party would rather lose an election or two under The Nightwatchman, Beady-Eyed Bishop or People Skills Mad Monk than have Moneybags take them down a path of republicanism and a liberal social policy.

    A mere mention of the republic by Rudd would have a Turnbull-led Coalition opposition reaching for their collective brown trousers. Can anybody imagine the ratbag Nats – whether in coalition with the Libs or part of a unified City Rural Alliance Party (CRAP) – rolling over to support Turnbull’s position on a republic?

    Futher, Costello isn’t hanging around waiting for a position at Mac Bank (if they’d even want him, which they probably wouldn’t), he is hanging around until Nelson falls over – or gets pushed over – so that he can use his still considerable numbers to stop Moneybags becoming leader.

    Turnbull has two chances of becoming Lib leader in the short term: Buckley’s and none.

    On a side note, Sportingbet is offering $7 for Bishop, J as next leader of the Liberal Party.

  8. riccardo said

    At first I thought Fagin’s post alarmist, but thinking it through I agree with it.

    Much as I think some of those named just want their derrieres on parliamentary leather, I don’t think any of them went into politics to share power with a small l liberal PM called Turnbull

    It just won’t happen. If he gets the gig, Sophie Mirabella will take her rural seat over to what is left of the Nats, as well several others. They would probably fall out of coalition and might instead only guarantee supply or confidence.

  9. Bobby said

    Ohh come on Possum… its obviously a narrowing!!! Can you please do one of your wonderful projections oh wise one and tell us how long it will take till the Opposition overtake the Government…??

  10. JP said

    Fagin,

    Would all these Liberals who would rather lose elections than allow one man (Turnbull, in this case) hijack the party’s agenda be the same Liberals who stood by and let Howard unilaterally lead the party off an electoral cliff without a whimper of protest?

    These people don’t have principles, hard-right or otherwise. The only thing they’d need to swing behind Turnbull in an instant would be a single poll showing a hypothetical Turnbull-led Coalition leading the ALP, just as they wouldn’t have hesitated to shaft Howard if Costello had had superior poll ratings.

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