Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

Fuelwatch – Raining windfalls on working families everywhere

Posted by Possum Comitatus on May 27, 2008

This was me earlier in Crikey today.

The problem with petrol politics is that the numbers involved are simply enormous. A small cut in excise – that’ll will be a few billion thanks. A large cut in excise – pick a number and add nine zeroes. The debate revolves around numbers so large that economists hide in the cupboard muttering in the foetal position just thinking about the fiscal carnage that could be unleashed.

But there is one area of the fuel pricing melodrama that is at the opposite end of the spectrum – where the amounts involved are so small that we could call it microeconomics if the word hadn’t already been pinched.

We are talking, or course, about FuelWatch.

To get an idea of how the FuelWatch scheme might play out in practice nationally, we have our own natural experiment to look at in WA where FuelWatch has been running for 8 years. Using data supplied by the Australia Automobile Association on average quarterly petrol prices in capital cities, we can plot the Perth price since 1980 against the combined average price of Melbourne, Sydney and Adelaide (Brisbane has been excluded because of the State government subsidy that drivers north of the Rio Tweed enjoy).

As we can see, the difference is minute between the two measures, with prices moving together through time, obviously being driven by far larger things than geography or programs like FuelWatch.

However, if we dig down a little deeper and plot the average cents per litre difference between Perth prices and the 3 State Average over the same period, a slightly different picture emerges.

Throughout the 1980’s and 90’s, petrol was an average of 1.4 cents per litre more expensive in Perth than the 3 State Average (or 2.45%), whereas over the period since the introduction of FuelWatch, Perth has enjoyed a petrol price that is, on average, 0.2 cents per litre cheaper (or 0.11%) than the 3 State Average.

While the cause and effect of FuelWatch in WA can be debated, the glorious savings for Sandgropers simply cannot be ignored. A typical Commodore driving family in Perth would have saved an average of 14.4 cents every time they filled the tank over the last 8 years compared to their Eastern working family brethren.

That’s nearly a saving of $7.50 per year if the car gets a weekly fill! We’re talking serious kitchen table Working Family economics here.

If the ALP government wants to start spruiking the benefits of this one, they’ll need to get in touch with the North Korean Newsagency, because I just don’t think that Australian PR firms could deliver the necessary hype.

However nervous economists can rejoice and leave their cupboards, for we need not be worried about those 10 figure sums with FuelWatch. We only have to worry about whether our software goes to enough decimal places to measure the benefits.

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36 Responses to “Fuelwatch – Raining windfalls on working families everywhere”

  1. Kwoff.com said

    Fuelwatch – Raining windfalls on working families everywhere « Possums Pollytics…

    The problem with petrol politics is that the numbers involved are simply enormous. A small cut in excise – that’ll will be a few billion thanks. A large cut in excise – pick a number and add nine zeroes. The debate revolves around numbers so large th…

  2. Aristotle said

    Whilst parliament descends into a fatuous and irrelevant argument over who has the greater ability to lower the unlowerable, I thought colleagues might appreciate the following two excellent articles from Scientific American on something that is actually worth debating and discussing: climate change. The sooner they get back to examining the big picture, the better for everyone – especially future generations.



  3. ruawake said

    Can we stop calling the Qld petrol price being 8c a litre lower a subsidy, it is not.

    All States bar Qld imposed their own excise on petrol. This was found to be un-constitutional by the High Court, thanks to the ACT Govt trying to impose an excise on X-Rated videos and the Smut Video boys taking it to the HC.

    So the Federal Govt says OK Guys and Girls in the States we will collect your unconstitutional excise and give it back to you. So Qld motorists got slugged with an increase in Federal excise and the Govt gives it back. Hardly a “subsidy”. (Just being pedeantic 🙂 )

  4. Matt C said

    Shouldn’t the benefit of FuelWatchWA be evaluated as the difference between the pre-FuelWatch gap between Perth prices and average prices (1.4 cents) and the post-FuelWatch gap (0.2 cents)?

  5. Possum Comitatus said

    Matt – if you wanted to do it properly you’d need to build a great whopping econometric model to pull out the true price effects – it might be half a cent saving, might be a whole cent in some periods, might be nothing at all in others – but the point here is that the Fuelwatch initiative is dealing with numbers so small that they don’t matter.

  6. Thomarse said

    No one will reduce the price of petrol. A world-wide recession might do it.

    The most sensible strategy would be to offer some compensation via tax cuts/pension increases. But Rudd/Swan did not cut enough of the irresponsible Howard spending to have some flexibility here. Don’t know why, critics say Rudd backed out of that. I sometimes think that too. But I remember Rudd deciding not to join Howard in the spending spree at the campaign ‘launch’ and decide it is maybe more to do with turning a $1.1Trn dollar economy around slowly.

    Some people say Rudd & Swan created an impression they COULD lower petrol & grocery prices. People fooling themselves? That has led to Rudd being under pressure from call me Brendan!

    “We have done all we can to reduce petrol prices” that could haunt Rudd later. Hopefully the Petrol Commissioner finds Woolies and Coles colluding or something to show action under way.

    What could be a sensib

  7. Doublespeak said

    I am certainly sniffing less that I used to with the increase in price.

  8. James said


    According to your own figures, it looks like 1.4 + 0.2 = 1.6 cpl cheaper than before fuelwatch. So about $60 pa on your figures (one free tank of petrol). Not the answer to record world oil prices, but given that reducing excise is a zero sum game (govt gotta find the $ elsewhere or cut spending)& that the fuelwatch scheme is probably cheap to administer it probably rates well on the cost/benefit ratio.

    I think the government have suggested WA fuelwatch saves motorists around 2 cpl. Not far from what you’ve come up with. How is the average petrol price calculated?, is it a volume of fuel average, or average of servos? If it is the latter, then your figures may underestimate the savings by a small amount.

    Although too hard to get any figures on, it would be interesting to look at what the savings have been for different types of buyers (eg buyers who shop around vs those who don’t). I would make a guess that the WA fuelwatch scheme may have saved some individuals bugger all, and others a very substantial amount.

    If the ~$130 USD / barrel turns out to be the speculative bubble we all hope it is, then the government might end up looking very good.

  9. Amber Dekstris said

    2.45% – -0.11% = 2.56% difference pre- and post-2000.

    I think the bigger benefit will be the reduction in volatility. It’s ridiculous that petrol prices vary by 10+ cents through the week on a regular basis. Even Nelson was on the box tonight saying that Tuesday is the cheap night in the petrol price cycle (with half-kilometre queues, to boot).

  10. I seen no problem with petrol prices continuing to rise. There are dwindling oil resources and limitations to ‘coal liquification’ so the reality is that prices will continue to rise. Which given the lack of attention to climate change may be a good thing, creating a consumer-led demand in greater investment in public transport infrastructure and alternative fuels for vehicles. Although I hope Australia avoids the bio-fuels trap that the US and Europe have found themselves in with more crops being dedicated to bio-fuels not food.

    The petrol prices rubbish is pandering to populist politics and if we rub the shine from Brendan’s forehead, we can see that they’ve just pinched Family First’s campaign.

  11. Kirribilli Removals said

    Alex Schlotzer, I’m in perfect agreement, there is no problem with oil prices rising because that’s what markets do,ie settle demand and supply via price.

    Without the incentive to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels we’d all happily drive off into a perpetual sunset and be damned. I noticed that US miles driven dropped a meagre amount for the first time in 17 years, so the process has begun.

    We are in for change, and the science tells us it must be dramatic, and so rising demand is, fortunately hitting peak production. I’d be far more concerned if there was literally a bottomless well of the stuff.

    Then we’d be truly stuffed.

  12. Xercius said

    I sooo wanna comment . . . but I can’t. But, I can set some ‘homework’ for others I guess.

    What would be the normal retail margins compared between, say, an independently operated site and a site operated by a ‘grocer’?

    How many refineries / suppliers are there in WA?

    How many refineries / suppliers are there in the Eastern states?

    What is ‘import parity pricing’, upon what is it based, and how does it impact on pricing?

    What is the actual status of the current global supply / demand equation; specifically in relation to sweet light crude?

    What relationship does a futures market have to the economics of domestic refining of locally sourced base stock?

    What can anyone, anyone (Bueller?) find out about the transparency surrounding wholesale fuel pricing arangements?

    That’ll do for a starter.

  13. Bobby said

    Poss once again you give us the analysis and figures we have all been waiting for…

    Being poltical rather than economics junkie I just love the latest helpful insights from the WA Liberals –

    Correct me if I am wrong but wasn’t Judith Adams one of the senators who ‘missed’ the Liberal leadership vote because her plane got in late from Perth?

  14. Thomarse said

    heh, government should do what it does for medicines, buy a years supply (or contract therefor) and so get a cheaper price.

    Won’t happen, price fluctuations might mean locking in for a year at a historically high price, but only something like that would actually lower the price.

    The Fuel watch, if it allowed servo operators to lower their price, had active ACCC monitoring might offer minor relief?

    If the Libs block Fuelwatch, distribute the $20m to carers or something. might be the easiest, and Labor can blame the Fibs!

  15. A Miner said

    “What would be the normal retail margins compared between, say, an independently operated site and a site operated by a ‘grocer’?”

    Grocers are treating petrol as a loss-leader for groceries. Plus grocers are good at, like, retail while E+P companies are good at finding oil and gas and refining it. Which is good when the highest profit items are ciggies and tim tams, rather than actual petrol.

    “How many refineries / suppliers are there in WA?”

    Irrelevant. Prices are set by the Singapore price, as thats where we buy our petrol.

    “How many refineries / suppliers are there in the Eastern states?”

    Irrelevant, as prices are set by the Singapore price, as thats where we buy our petrol.

    “What is ‘import parity pricing’, upon what is it based, and how does it impact on pricing?”

    Means I sell it to you for whatever you can buy it for in Singapore.

    “What is the actual status of the current global supply / demand equation; specifically in relation to sweet light crude?”

    We don’t have as much as we’d like.

    “What relationship does a futures market have to the economics of domestic refining of locally sourced base stock?”

    Nothing. Domestic production is a minor share of consumption. We havent found a good oil field since Kingfish (and, no, INP’s doesnt count until they prove it is something other than streaks of permiability in an otherwise tight formation)

    “What can anyone, anyone (Bueller?) find out about the transparency surrounding wholesale fuel pricing arangements?”

    Sure. I give you a couple of phone numbers in Singapore, you buy fuel there and once your cheque clears they ask ‘would Sir like a tanker to take that to Australia ?

    And answered.

    A. Miner

  16. Yoyoma said

    After listening to today’s Question Time, I’m leaning towards the view that we might not be analysing the benefits of the Fuelwatch scheme in the most relevant or meaningful way. Rather than asking ‘What is the average difference in fuel prices attributable to the Fuelwatch scheme?’, perhaps we should be asking ‘Given the additional information made available by the Fuelwatch scheme, how are participating consumers (PCs) in WA altering their buying habits and what benefits are they thereby obtaining over non-participating consumers (NPCs) in WA (i.e. those consumers not using the additional data made available by the scheme)?’

    Just because the average reduction in price attributable to the scheme is negligible does not necessarily imply that the benefit a PC obtains over a NPC is also negligible. In fact, by using the additional pricing data made available under Fuelwatch, a PC will consistently seek out the cheapest petrol within a given area, while a NPC will instead over time pay the (higher) area average price (assuming they either (i) visit stations randomly within the area, or (ii) visit the same station consistently, but that individual stations vary randomly in their prices relative to the area average, i.e. stations are not consistently cheaper nor more expensive than the area average price).

    Additionally, a PC may use the Fuelwatch data to bring forward in time a planned purchase of fuel in order to pre-empt an impending price rise. NPCs will not have the benefit of obtaining cheaper prices in this way.

    Therefore to obtain an accurate measure of the benefits of the scheme we should compare the average price per litre that PCs *actually pay in practice* at the bowser to the average price per litre that NPCs actually pay in practice within an area. Given the two mechanisms discussed above (and there may be further ways to save money using the data provided under the scheme) I expect the benefit of the scheme for those who make use of the pricing data to be far greater than the $7.50 per year obtained in the current analysis. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the savings obtained by PCs may be up to 10c per litre by applying these techniques.

    It seems unlikely that any of the necessary data is currently available to quantify the saving of PCs over NPCs. However, this data could be obtained relatively easily simply by sampling PCs and NPCs within various areas of WA.

    On a related note, it’s interesting to note that Brendan Nelson seems to be basing much of his opposition to the Fuelwatch scheme on the idea that the weekly fuel cycles will be eliminated (can anyone explain why this is generally assumed true?) and therefore that those willing to ‘queue for up to half a kilometre … in their Taragos with a wheelchair and 5 kids in the back’ will no longer be able to purchase fuel at a discount price. Yet if the above analysis were to prove true, there is still ample opportunity to obtain fuel at a significant discount for those willing to expend a little effort. In fact, I’d argue that checking a website or reading an SMS is far preferable to wasting half an hour or more waiting in a queue to fill the tank (and think of the petrol wasted continually turning the engine on and off).

  17. Grumps said

    Hi Poss,

    One has to thank you for the work on this one. Made in my mind now, fuel watch is a loser.

    I quickly read your piece last night 27/05/08. My initial thought was how long before the MSM pick up on what you have put out there? The answer was not long.

    Steve Lewis and Gerard McManus of the Hun hard copy edition 28/05 (in Melbourne) did a small piece lifting data from the AAA, but selecting pricing points that suited there argument. Radio National, in their PM edition 28/05, made reference to data similar to what you have put across.

    Possum, why o, why do you make it so simple for them?????? 😉

    Anyhow the manufactured froth excitement of the Nightwatchman, Mezmerelda, Aquaman and co, only reinforces why they got kicked out.

    When you have one good idea you play it as hard as along as possible can to your benefit. (I mean those that have taken a pay cut on the opposition benches). Stuff everyone else whilst commonwealth cars and drivers are laid on. (Don’t forget the frequent flier points)

    The double taxing of GST on excise has been with us since its introduction. It was fought over and the battle won by EL Rodent. It stayed.

    Peak oil was discussed as early as the 50’s, China and India’s middle classes aspiring to the west’s life style was inevitable. Of course oil supplies and pricing is reflected on its availability and those prepared to pay the highest price.

    Where is the more serious debate on this subject? It definitely ain’t coming from Canberra (or any other major governing centre in Australia ) Definitely not from the MSM whilst wage package include fully optioned, serviced and fuelled company cars.

    Keep up the good work Poss and the next time the MSM steals your stuff ask for attribution !!!!!!!!!

  18. paul said

    my my, the nightwatchman can certainly spark up when he thinks he needs to. thats what this country needs, a loony tilting at windmills.

    [Sorry Paul, had to drag you out of the spam bin… Poss]

  19. Yoyoma said

    After thinking about this for a little longer, I no longer think it’s necessary to sample actual PCs and NPCs within an area to get an idea of the savings attributable to Fuelwatch. Instead we should be able to use historical pricing data recorded during Fuelwatch’s operation and simulate the purchasing behaviour of a number of PCs and NPCs within a number of geographical areas.

    To simulate a NPC all we need do is choose a purchasing period (e.g. once per week) and select a retailer at random within the given area. If we want to get fancier we can easily vary the purchasing day randomly about a fixed weekly purchasing day.

    To simulate a PC is a little trickier. We can start by following the same procedure for the NPC in selecting a purchasing period, but we then take the minimum price within an area (rather than a random price as we did for the NPC). To simulate the ability to bring forward a purchase in time, we can allow the PC to bring forward the purchasing day on the basis of the difference between the minimum price in the area for the current and following days.

    We might need to make some assumptions about daily distance travelled and maintain a virtual petrol tank in the background in order to work out how much fuel is purchased on any given visit. But it should be relatively straight forward to develop a near-optimal model of the PC’s behaviour.

    Once we have decided upon the behaviour of the PC and the NPC we need only simulate their actions a large number of times, with the historical pricing data as input. The results should give an indication of the typical saving a PC can expect when compared to a NPC.

    Is the historical pricing data available to perform these simulations? Anyone up to the task?

  20. Possum Comitatus said

    Holy smokes Batman!

    I’ll have a ferret around.

  21. onimod said

    Ah – I like it. A bit of real thinking. Go Team Yoyoma and Possum.
    I was thinking earlier today that the ‘average price’ figure being bandied about as the only measure of success or failure was an absolute waste of time.
    The real measure is actually the volume and price paid.
    Are petrol companies just trying to make friends on Tuesday? Don’t think so.

  22. Stig said

    What do you think you’re doing, bringing quantitative thinking to this whole exercise? It will never catch on, of course. As an example of polly waffle this is hard to beat. I can only assume that this is what Nightwatchman wanted, given his earlier attempts to promote petrol prices as more important than all that trivial stuff about apologising and the Kyoto thing and invading Iraq.

    Actually, it’s good cover while Possum does his work behind the scenes. Goes to Tasmania on honeymoon, and shortly afterwards the Premier for Gunns resigns. Coincidence? I think not.

  23. Pedro said

    I’m not convinced, yet, Possum.

    First you’ll have to explain to me how the figures for ‘average petrol prices’ are derived. If ‘average price’ means average price of the volume of petrol actually sold through the pump, then fine. But if average price means average ‘advertised’ price, then there’s a different story. Fuel watch isn’t really about lowerering the advertised price of petrol – it’s about giving consumers information on where to find the cheapest petrol on offer on any given day. So the average ‘advertised’ price may only fall marginally over time, or perhaps not at all – but more consumers will be buying their fuel from cheaper outlets. Hence the total savings would be greater.

    But which is it? can you clarify?

  24. sandgroper said

    As a West Aussie I can’t help wonder why the media doesn’t come over here and ask the punters what they think of fuelwatch. I am sure the response would be overwhelmingly in favour.

    It’s pretty simple if you want the cheapest petrol fill up mid week (usually Wednesday) if you don’t care (the companies paying for it) fill up on the weekend. We have a fortnightly cycle where the price comes down fast in the first week and then plateaus towards the spike in the middle of the following week. Personally I always fill up on Wednesday always get cheap petrol – simple.

    The best thing is we get advanced warning to fill up and you find there are always a couple of laggards so you can hunt them out and even get cheap petrol when the price has spiked.

    When you think about this politically the new fuelwatch scheme comes in in November I believe, 2 years to the next election (maybe) and all you eastern staters will by that time singing KR’s praises as a genius.

    I don’t see any downside with the scheme from a consumers point of view.

  25. Nick G said

    Heya Possum,

    Thanks as always for the great analysis.

    Just a thought or two – whilst it has been said (or insinuated, I can’t remember the degree of explicitness in Rudd’s language on the issue) that the Fuel Watch scheme would reduce petrol prices, wasn’t the intention – at least in part – of the FuelWatch scheme to help consumers be aware of when petrol prices were to go up in the weekly cycle?

    Part of petrol politics – nee driver whinging – is that common refrain of being ‘caught out’ by the weekly price rises, usually on a Thursday.

    Irrespective of all this, the only thing more pathetic than Question Time at the moment are the gallery commentators: “Rudd’s honeymoon over”, “Nelson finds his feet”, “Nelson slams Rudd” etcetera.

    Let’s wait until the next Newspoll and see the leader ratings and 2PP. Sure Dennis will have something to say about the Honeymoon, but the rest of us will see that any movement being within the MoE. You know why? No-one is paying that much attention…


  26. Nick G said

    Oh, and more info for consumers can’t be that bad a thing, despite the false pretences of the scheme…

  27. Classified said

    Oh dear, ya musta pissed somebody of with this one poss, look like this time you really are in the shit!

  28. Possum Comitatus said

    Pedro – I’d imagine that the average price is simply just the average of the advertised prices in a city taken from a largish sample rather than a more complicated volumetric analysis – as that would require the large majors to hand over sensistive commercial information.

    The whole point here is that Fuelwatch, by it’s very nature, deals with very small amounts of savings.

    The average price appears to have dropped in Perth over the FW period, even a bit of quick regression work shows that it has dropped – but only slightly and the cause of that drop cant be fully isolated to FuelWatch, although we can say that it’s likely that FW played some role in that mean price reduction.

    Any larger savings that might flow from FuelWatch therefore dont come from a change in the mean price, they come from within the volatility of the mean price, and from within the FW induced change in the volatility of the mean price. But the problem with modelling volatility changes is that it produces quite large standard errors in the models.

    As a consequence we end up with modelling that says that there is a statistically significant, but small reduction in the mean price under a FW scheme over a sufficiently long enough period (like a month or a quarter), but once volatility and the price cycle is accounted for – on any given day that change while still a theoretical saving, is not statistically different from zero (because of the large standard errors associated with this type of volatility modelling).

    That’s what seems to be happening anyway from the snippets of quotes of the modelling that I can find.

    Basically, (and if this is, in fact what’s happening – which i think it is) we can say on the one hand that for a person that buys petrol on random days over a period of, say, a month – the average price they pay for petrol is slightly less under Fuelwatch than it would be if FW wasnt operating. But on the other hand, on any given day of the week the price effect of fuelwatch is not significantly different from zero.

    The ACCC is going to release an extract of their modelling this morning so we’ll go through it when that happens.

  29. Xercius said

    Sorry, A Miner, But I can only give you a conceded pass for those answers. And, even then, only because you have correctly pointed out that, for many operators, they make more profit out of selling ‘a certain soft drink’ than they do out of fuel.

    You might be surprised just how little fuel actually comes in from Singapore. OZ fuel standards see to that (google “MOGAS 95” and compare its spec to that mandated for OZ).

    A hunt around the API site wouldn’t go amiss either.

    3/10. More research and effort needed. See me after class. (LOL)

  30. Ronin8317 said

    Just like LIBOR is used as a benchmark for many financial transaction, the refinery prices from the Singapore is the benchmark on the cost of refined oil, with a 7 days delay.


    There is a capacity problem with oil supply. For the past few years there hasn’t been a lot of new oil wells being found, output from Iraq and Venezula have declined, while demand from India and China has increased. The price of oil is still too cheap right now compared to alternative energy sources, however that will change soon. Crude will reach $200 before next year, that equates to over $2 at the browser. You’ll begin to see LPG becoming the standard for new cars by 2012.

  31. Paul said


    Keep these articles in mind when discussing this:





  32. Xercius said

    For example . . .

    The recent reduction in Australian refining capacity has meant that existing demand for petrol cannot be met solely from domestic production.

    In 2004–05 3 166 million litres of petrol was imported into Australia. The major source of imports was Singapore (2 754 million litres, which represented 87 per cent of total imports). Imports represented 16 per cent of total petrol consumption in Australia in 2004–05.

    The level of imports has been growing. In 2002–03 imports were around 1 686 million litres, which represented around 9 per cent of total petrol consumption.

    Some of the imported product is supplied to northern and north–western areas of Australia, where domestic refineries are generally unable to competitively supply product.

    The refiner/marketers and some independent operators import fuel into Australia. Most imports are by the refiner/marketers. Independent importers in the past have included Trafigura in New South Wales and Victoria, Gull in Western Australia and Neumann Petroleum in Queensland. However, they are not regular importers and they source most of their product from the refiner/marketers in Australia.

    In 2004–05, 771 million litres of petrol were exported. The major destination was New Zealand (732 million litres, which represented 95 per cent of total exports).”

  33. 2353 said

    Memory of my basic economics studies suggests that a perfect market operates when all participants has perfect (read as all of) the information and therefore makes a rational decision. In which case Fuelwatch will work as it gives the consumer (a participant in the market) access to greater accurate information to make a rational decision – as they can decide if the local servo’s price for fuel is economically justified on a daily basis.

  34. Xercius said

    I like the way you’re thinking, Paul. That’s getting closer.

  35. David Richards said

    The end of globalisation? BRING IT ON!!!! The end of globalisation and the excessive use of petroleum by petrol guzzling, inefficient, oversized vehicles is to be welcomed.

  36. Hugh Jorgen said

    Matt C Said:
    May 27, 2008 at 6:17 pm
    “Shouldn’t the benefit of FuelWatchWA be evaluated as the difference between the pre-FuelWatch gap between Perth prices and average prices (1.4 cents) and the post-FuelWatch gap (0.2 cents)?”

    This is absolutely wrong. There was no noticable change in prices for at least 12 months after FuelWatch was launched in WA. The post-FuelWatch gap was actually the same as the pre-FuelWatch gap. The price reduction you are alluding to should be refered to as the ‘post-Coles Express entering the WA market with heavily discounted prices’ gap.

    This is not a theory, this is fact. Look into the data.

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