US Election and Pollytrack Updates
Posted by Possum Comitatus on June 10, 2008
To start off with, let’s have a look at how Pollytrack is going?
The ALP primary vote has reduced from 46.6% in mid May down to 46.2%. That’s the only poll movement we’ve seen from the rolling three pollster phone poll average weighted by sample size.
On US politics, Intrade has Virginia moving into the Democrat column putting the projected Electoral College votes for the Democrats at 306, which you can see over on the US Election page as well as a whole heap of weekly data goodness relating to that particular contest. This includes a new graphic showing how the State by State probabilities have changed from the past week as well as a better probability map:
For full explanations of how all these bits work, you’ll need to pop over to the US Elections page that is conveniently linked at the top of the site via the obvious button and it’s updated every Monday night/Tuesday morning. Next month US polling will also be added to that page as well as a thing called the Jaundiced View Intrade/Polling Confluence graphic which sounds a little mysterious