Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

Pollytrack goes permanent.

Posted by Possum Comitatus on June 24, 2008

Pollytrack now has enough data to become a permanent feature on the site with it’s own dedicated page which you can see anytime by following the Pollytrack link in the buttons at the top of the site. It will be updated at the end of each week.

I’ll also add a small graphic soon under the Pollytrack results in the sidebar.

The Pollytrack series is a combined 3 pollster rolling average weighted by sample size of Newspoll, ACNielsen and Morgan phone poll. Each point in the polling series is based on the most recent poll of those 3 pollsters, and as each new poll is released by a pollster, their old value get’s replaced with their new value to construct the most recent Pollytrack data point.

Each observation of the Pollytrack series has a sample size on any given week of between 3100 and 4000, providing for a Margin of Error between 1.5% and 1.75%.

Theoretically the Pollytrack series should be the most accurate tracking poll in the country.

The series started in mid April when ACN resumed their political polling and will be calculated for each week, although at a slight lag as we have to wait for all polls produced in a given week to be released before we can crunch the Pollytrack numbers.

Click to expand:

Along with the Pollytrack series, we’ll also produce two charts of all polls conducted by the three big pollsters, but this time including Morgan face to face polls. We will also run a Loess regression through the polling results to give us a line of best fit.

Click to expand:

Also, for those that don’t know, the US election intrade data page has also been updated for the week ending Sunday, and now has even more spiffy charts for all.

And finally, for a bit of a giggle – a lot of us check out the latest Morgan polls on Friday before they hit the front page of their site, by going to the address that the poll will appear on a few hours earlier. Normally the way it works is that a headline get’s put up and a few hours later the content of the latest poll appears under it.  This was the headline for their recently released qualitative survey on Federal politics before it was changed (it’s a screen capture – click it).:mrgreen:

I think Gary was taking the piss out of us early peekers.

UPDATE:

Just a weird one and not everyones cup of tea – but something I forgot about.

Exerpts from a marathon reading of 1984 at the 2008 Sydney Writers Festival.

There’s just something quaint about book readings  – but I’ve got to say, I’ve never seen a relay reading before. Is it just me or was there a bit of crowd attrition as the chapters passed🙂

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6 Responses to “Pollytrack goes permanent.”

  1. Kevin Rudd? “Self-deprecating”?

  2. Possum Comitatus said

    It was a different kind of world that day in the Morgan bunker:mrgreen:

    Sort of like calling Keating “humble” or Howard “hip” or Planet Janet “lucid”.

  3. Dave55 said

    I bet they had fun posting it and then waiting to see if any of us picked up on it.

    At least we now know the Honeymoon is over … Roy has said so.

  4. Dangerous said

    By the way, Poss – any take on the abortive presidential seal Obama was using, with the motto Vero Possomus?

  5. Possum Comitatus said

    Dangerous,

    Clearly the US public just aren’t ready for marsupials in their pollytics.:mrgreen:

  6. Nick G said

    Possum,

    You’ll love today’s front page story in The Oz about VIC and QLD’s ‘conservative revival’ as punters ‘warm to the prospect of a Nationals and Liberal merger’. The ‘honeymoon is over for Queensland Premier Anna Bligh’ as she trembles in her boots, staring down a 55-45 2PP, the same as the last election. She tried to differentiate herself from the ‘crisis-prone Beattie Government’.

    Whilst I’m ill-equiped to make sound psepho-nalysis – some of the data there may well be important – I thought you’d enjoy the veritable cliche treat. Mmmm

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