The Narrowing, the Narrowing! Run for the Hills!
Posted by Possum Comitatus on June 30, 2008
Newspoll Tuesday, or for those insomniacs – Newspoll Monday Night – has come around yet again. It delivers us polling goodness of primary votes running 44/39 to the ALP flowing through to a TPP of 55/45 the ALP’s way.
The Narrowing Beast is upon us! Dennis shall regale us with tales of honeymoons concluded and political danger, Paul Kelly will tell us that Rudd needs to become a “conviction politician” to overcome this most dire of polling slumps, while Glenn Milne will, oh, probably talk about politicians social lives or something.
Yet all shall speak in dulcet tones of “The Narrowing”.
We’ll get into the nitty gritty chanelling of the bellybutton lint over the numbers on Tuesday, but in the meantime we can update our Pollytrack series (the most accurate tracking poll in the country) and its webbed feet cousin Loess Allpolls to give us something to chew over.
Something you might be interested in; if we take every Newspoll from after the 1996 election through to today and look at the Government two party preferred result, turn that result into a probability distribution and simulate it a million times – we end up with a nice little curve that tells us the historical probability of a government getting between any two values of Newspoll.
Here it shows that the chances of the government getting 55% or higher in TPP terms is about 9%. Or another way, 81% 91% of all polls for the government are historically below 55%.